Austin Hays, 20th OF Taken in the 2016 Draft

Ever since Nick Markakis took a mid-winter train to Georgia, the Orioles have struggled to figure out what to do with right field.  A motley crew of Mark Trumbo, Seth Smith, Nolan Reimold, Travis Snider, Joey Rickard, Alejandro de Aza, Gerardo Parra, and some other guys have been able to put up a fWAR of 0.6 while Nick plugs along delivering a cumulative 3.3 fWAR for just a couple million more per season.  It, sadly, was not one of the better outcomes for the Orioles in that they failed so completely in finding a replacement as opposed to Markakis really doing much of anything down in Atlanta.

However, now the Orioles have experienced some measure of hope.  Austin Hays was selected in the third round of the 2016 and has been on a rocket ride to the majors.  It has been a stunningly quick development and one that could greatly aid the franchise in maintaining it recent winning ways.  However, what we are seeing right now was in no way foreseen last year.

At the time of the draft, Austin Hays was considered a true five tool player, but not someone you think about when you think about five tools.  In JuCo, he showed the ability to hit, have power, run well, cover ground in the outfield, and show a decent arm.  Everything was there, but none of the tools could carry him forward alone.  The concern was that he would need each tool to carry over to the next level and beyond.  Generally, when you see a five tool player, you see one tool having the potential to break out and dominate.  You may look for light tower power, incredible plate coverage, or excellent defense at a prime position.  Hays had none of this and that is why he dropped to the third round.

When you look at the 19 outfielders taken before him, you see several guys who have some loud tools.  A guy like Mickey Moniak has incredible bat control. Corey Ray has power and great athleticism.  Deeper down you see similar things.  Jake Fraley looks to be an excellent defensive center fielder.  That is generally what you see, guys with a carrying tool as opposed to Hays who was an all around JuCo player.  Those guys tend not to break out.

Pick	Name	School	Team	Class	YrAA
1	Mickey Moniak	HS	Phillies	A	-2.5
5	Corey Ray	4Yr	Brewers	A+	-0.6
11	Kyle Lewis	4Yr	Mariners	A+	-1.6
14	Will Benson	HS	Indians	A-	-2
15	Alex Kirilloff	HS	Twins	Rk(Inj)	-1.5
18	Blake Rutherford	HS	Yankees	A	-1.5
33	Dylan Carlson	HS	Cardinals	A	-3.2
35	Taylor Trammell	HS	Reds	A	-2.2
39	Anfernee Grier	4Yr	Dbacks	A	-0.2
48	Buddy Reed	4Yr	Padres	A	0.8
53	Ryan Boldt	4Yr	Rays	A+	-0.7
57	J.B. Woodman	4Yr	Blue Jays	A	0.8
59	Bryan Reynolds	4Yr	Giants	A+	-0.6
60	Brandon Marsh	HS	Angels	Rk	-1.7
61	Ronnie Dawson	4Yr	Astros	A+	-0.6
74	Akil Baddoo	HS	Twins	Rk	-2.4
77	Jake Fraley	4Yr	Rays	A+	-0.7
84	Thomas Jones	HS	Marlins	A-	-2
86	Alex Call	4Yr	White Sox	A+	-0.6
91	Austin Hays	4Yr	Orioles	MLB	-7.7

Well, Hays broke out in an incredibly interesting way.  In general, evaluation models view each rung of the professional ladder to be increasingly difficult.  This is quantified by looking at players playing at one level who then move up.  As a population, performance decreases as you move up.  Hays began at A+, did well, and then moved up to AA.  You tend to expect a decrease in performance of about 20% in general.  A jump to AAA would result typically in a drop of 10%.  The move from AAA to MLB also is about a 10% reduction.

Now, those are generic values of a highly encapsulated metric.  You certainly can have a player who can dominate AA or AAA, who lacks the ability to succeed at an MLB level.  A player may well be able to feast on lower quality talent at those rungs while just getting by against true MLB quality players.  Or a player can fly under the radar for longer as scouting reports take longer to catch up with MiL players than MLB players.  So what did Hays do?

Register Batting

Tm	Lev	PA	BA	OBP	SLG
BAL	MLB	32	.290	.313	.452
Bowie	AA	283	.330	.367	.594
Frederick	A+	280	.328	.364	.592

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/22/2017.

Hays dominated A+.  He experienced zero decrease in performance at AA, outperforming the expectation by around 20%.  In a handful of at bats, Hays has shown some ability in the majors, performing about 23% better than expected.  To be obvious and succinct, Hays has had an impressive year.

Based on my discussions with scouts, it appears that what was missed on Hays was how good his hit tool actually was.  Coming out of JuCo, he did have a more polished approach than most draftees selected in the top three rounds, but it was still a swing that would require some adjustment to a wood bat.  That adjustment went without any growing pains and with all his batting attributes translating over.  It was unexpected and something the Orioles did not expect either or else they would have selected him much higher.

That said, if his hit tool is more on the 60-65 end than on the 50 end, he looks much more like a MLB player than he did before.  The only lingering issue we see if that he appears to be relatively unable to walk.  Typically, MLB quality pitchers are able to paint outside the corners well enough where batters either die swinging or learn to sit back and earn some walks.  So there is some concern that Hays could turn into a Jeff Francoeur without the arm.

Looking ahead to 2018, it would be a shock if Austin Hays is not handed the right field position at the start of Spring Training.  However, it would be aggressively foolish for the club to have no suitable Plan B waiting in the wings.  Hays has been tearing through the leagues, but he is a hitter who depends heavily on being able to cover the entire strike zone without holding back to earn walks.  That is a profile that is uncommon and, when seen, tends to lead to failure.  It would benefit the club to find a fourth or fifth outfield option to hedge their bets.

Internally, Cedric Mullins might be able to fill that role.  He was the guy before the year who the front office name dropped repeatedly to local writers as being one of the best prospects in the system.  We noted him two years ago with a ceiling of league average centerfielder, but more likely as a 4th or 5th outfielder type.  To be a dependable second option would have required a strong season and a promotion to Norfolk, but injuries and a downturn in performance kept Mullins in Bowie.

Beyond Mullins, the free agent market could provide some opportunities.  A player like Jarrod Dyson could be an option.  He is a heavy strong side platoon option who is capable of playing all three outfield positions well.  He would be able to take over the lion's share of Hays' innings if Hays struggles as well as giving the club a very strong late inning defensive outfield.  If Hays succeeds, Dyson could be pushed around the outfield to provide rest to Mancini, Jones, and Hays.

A tighter fit would be a player like Curtis Granderson.  Granderson is in the decline phase of his career.  He can capably play left and right field as well as being able to still hit the ball a ton.  However, he is used to holding a starter's share of innings and plate appearances.  It would prove to be harder to find him innings if the entire outfield hits the ground running.

Regardless, the Orioles are in a better looking position now than they were at the beginning of the season with respect to right field in 2018 and beyond.  Hays may well be a solution for a position that has been difficult for the club to solve since Markakis departed.  Perhaps Hays will succeed.  Perhaps Hays can be the club's next Nick Markakis.