The comp model in this case was focused on all outfielders with particular weight to walks, strikeouts, isolated power, and defense. The comps were rather loose for Cespedes, but not as tenuous as Nick Markakis' were. Only one player really lined up well with Cespedes and that player was Adam Jones. Being the same playing age, that comparison does not work well for our exercise here. Anyway, here were the ten best comps.
On first look, this is a rather scary grouping. Strong bats, all of them, but most faded out quickly. The most optimistic outlooks would be those attached to Sosa, Armas, and Foster. Most did not see significant time in their fifth year. Here is the mean outcome of this population:
Sammy Sosa Jesse Barfield Don Lock Tony Armas Derek Bell George Foster Tommie Agee Raul Mondesi Richard Hidalgo Aaron Rowand
Year
|
Age
|
PA
|
HR
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
2016
|
30
|
529
|
25
|
.255
|
.326
|
.466
|
3.2
|
2017
|
31
|
496
|
22
|
.254
|
.325
|
.456
|
2.8
|
2018
|
32
|
420
|
19
|
.276
|
.349
|
.486
|
3.2
|
2019
|
33
|
456
|
17
|
.226
|
.294
|
.397
|
1.0
|
2020
|
34
|
442
|
17
|
.218
|
.278
|
.386
|
0.4
|
2021
|
35
|
410
|
15
|
.206
|
.263
|
.367
|
-0.3
|
2022
|
36
|
402
|
12
|
.191
|
.248
|
.332
|
-1.0
|
2023
|
37
|
382
|
11
|
.177
|
.231
|
.312
|
-1.6
|
There is one caveat to the above table. Cespedes is considered an excellent defender (+10 runs over a full season) for the 2016 season and that measure has an age curve applied to it. His 2023 season has him slightly above above (+1). That mean gives the appearance of three strong years, one make do season, and then him considering retirement. What the mean obscures though is the range of what we can reasonably expect. That is below:
Low
|
Mean
|
High
| |
2016
|
1.2
|
3.2
|
5.3
|
2017
|
1.5
|
2.8
|
4.2
|
2018
|
-0.1
|
3.2
|
6.6
|
2019
|
-0.5
|
1.0
|
2.5
|
2020
|
-1.1
|
0.4
|
1.8
|
2021
|
-1.6
|
-0.3
|
1.1
|
2022
|
-2.1
|
-1.0
|
0.1
|
2023
|
-2.8
|
-1.6
|
-0.7
|
This is an incredibly wide range. Cespedes might be a monster for three seasons and then be usable for three more seasons or he might be done after two middling years according to this comp approach. With such a wide range of possibility, Cespedes is probably one of the more ideal players to be seeking a player option. He needs to find a club that either believes he is a monster performer one that will let him walk out if he winds up being one.
BORAS, which yesterday missed Alex Gordon's 4/72 contract by predicting 4/69, thinks Cespedes should see a six year contract (just barely) for 18.8 MM (6/113). However, the comp model thinks the following:
Length
|
Low
|
Mean
|
High
|
1
|
8
|
23
|
37
|
2
|
19
|
43
|
68
|
3
|
18
|
68
|
119
|
4
|
14
|
76
|
139
|
5
|
5
|
79
|
154
|
6
|
-10
|
77
|
164
|
7
|
-30
|
67
|
165
|
8
|
-57
|
51
|
158
|
BORAS is right between the Mean and High ranges, which is not exactly the most ideal place to be. This is particularly true when the low end projection sees Cespedes as a net negative player. Again, this seems like an area where a player option might make sense. With an 18.8 MM AAV, a four year deal with that final fourth season a player option could make a great deal of sense. Risk would be even for both sides with the total surplus value probability equaling with the total negative value probability. For the team, a four year deal at 75 MM would also be right in line with Cespedes projected mean worth. If Cespedes continues on his late blooming tear, then after three seasons BORAS thinks he would be able to garner himself a 6/155 deal. At that point, his comps would like look incredibly different. Amazingly, the numbers all seem to magically come together on this one.
Anyway, it would be interesting to see if the market continues to play to the BORAS model or if the uncertainty in Cespedes future makes team weary and a confidant player bets on himself for a big payday in a few years.
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