Rumor Has It...2016 Orioles Edition: Qualifying Offers / Resignings

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This series considers briefly players who have been connected to the Orioles by the press. 
Click here for previous Rumors posts.

For this post, we will briefly address each potential qualifying offer.  We have before to some degree in our blueprint series, but here we will do it in the form chosen for other rumored connections to the club.

Chris Davis, 1B/CoOF/DH
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Pretty much 100% certain
Projected Contract: 6 / 132 MM

Past Five Season

Year	Age	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	bWAR	fWAR
2011	25	210	5	11	63	.266	.305	.402	89	-0.1	-0.5
2012	26	562	33	37	169	.270	.326	.501	121	1.6	2.1
2013	27	673	53	72	199	.286	.370	.634	168	6.5	7.0
2014	28	525	26	60	173	.196	.300	.404	96	1.8	0.8
2015	29	670	47	84	208	.262	.361	.562	146	5.2	5.6
8 Yrs		3512	203	323	1090	.255	.330	.506	122

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/30/2015.

If there was one thing that should make Orioles fans warm in the heart for Andy MacPhail was his record in trades.  Dealing out Koji Uehara and receiving Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter* was an amazing identification of talent.  It was also a deal that was not entirely clear cut as some folks like me would have been far more interested in taking on high upside young prospects rather than a failed prospect and an older minor league power arm.  Anyway, Davis' four years and change in an Orioles uniform has left him as the fourth highest bWAR 1B in Orioles history and a destined member of the Orioles Hall of Fame (note: Randy Milligan also needs to be voted in):

Rk	Player	bWAR/pos	From	To	G	HR	OPS
1	Eddie Murray	56.3	1977	1996	1884	343	.868
2	Boog Powell	35.4	1961	1974	1763	303	.826
3	Rafael Palmeiro	24.4	1994	2005	1000	223	.886
4	Chris Davis	15.1	2011	2015	617	161	.867
5	Jim Gentile	14.8	1960	1963	583	124	.891
6	Randy Milligan	11.1	1989	1992	511	59	.812

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/30/2015.

Even in Davis' worst years, you could make a decent argument that he was a league average first baseman.  Perhaps some squinting is involved there for 2014, but he was not a negative value player.  When you compare him to the available talent on the market this off season, it would be difficult to imagine any of them would surpass Davis.  Justin Morneau could if healthy and if Davis has one of his more wretched seasons.  I find that unlikely though.

For all these reasons, it makes sense to say that Chris Davis provides the best performance for a position of need for the Orioles: first base.  Also helpful is that Davis has some ability to play corner outfield defense, which may enable Christian Walker or Trey Mancini to push up into Baltimore if they indeed prove that they are ready.  However, I am reticent to off a significant deal to Chris Davis. 

His next deal will carry him through age 35 at least.  In general, that age is not worrisome.  Davis will certainly be in a decline phase over the length of the contract, that is known.  The question is whether or not Davis will age like the population in general.  If so, you could expect another 13 WAR over those next six years, which comes to 91 MM in 2015 money.  We would be looking at a 30 MM overpay, which likely is reasonable with inflation. 

However, my concern is that Davis' game is shear power that is enabled by a hit tool that is barely sufficient.  While power is unlikely to age poorly over the length of the contract, I think his contact tool could be unplayable by year five of the deal.  While Davis on the squad would certainly be a help in 2016-2018, he stands a good chance to being a weakness on the club the second half of the deal and waste what might well be a very solid club led by Manny Machado.  If I am spending big money on someone, I would want him to be in his mid-20s or to have him off the books by the end of 2018 or 2019.

Therefore, while I would place a Qualifying Offer on Davis, I would have little interest in discussing a contract without a reasonable buyout after four years.  Davis will not and should not accept such terms.

Matt Wieters, C
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Likely
Projected Contract: 4 / 52 MM

Past Five Seasons

Year	Age	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	bWAR	fWAR
2011	25	551	22	48	84	.262	.328	.450	110	4.9	4.4
2012	26	593	23	60	112	.249	.329	.435	107	3.5	3.9
2013	27	579	22	43	104	.235	.287	.417	90	0.6	2.6
2014	28	112	5	6	19	.308	.339	.500	132	0.7	0.9
2015	29	282	8	21	67	.267	.319	.422	100	0.8	1.0
7 Yrs		3004	100	253	566	.258	.320	.423	100

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/30/2015.

Matt Wieters has been a lightning rod for attention since his rookie campaign in 2009.  That season, PECOTA, powered by Davenport Translations that devised MLB equivalencies from MiL performance, suggested that Wieters was the second coming of Johnny Bench.  That did not happen.  Wieters never developed beyond a platoon bat with some contact issues.  That kind of bat is a plus behind the plate, but not much more than that.  His defense though was much better than expected.  He is an average handler, but very solid blocking pitches in the dirt, getting runners out at the plate, and gunning down base runners (a skill that looked at worst average when he returned from his Tommy John surgery).

If one could magically wave away injury, he would be an easy consideration for a Qualifying Offer.  His season in 2014 would have been worth around 3-4 WAR and last year would have been around 2-3 WAR.  Those seasons would have put him into a discussion of about six years and 20 MM.  With the injury, there is some concern, but a Tommy John surgery is not the worst thing and he did look decent behind the plate.  If I was to mid to top tier payroll and in need of a catcher, I would consider going a full six years and 90 MM on him.  I have him worth about 14 WAR over the next six years.  If those injuries were knee, hip, back, or labrum related then I would be concerned.  Worse comes to worst, then you have a player who is a somewhat expensive platoon DH and backup catcher.  That is not the worst thing in the world.

As you can see below, Wieters has also put himself in position to be an eventual Orioles Hall of Famer like Davis.  If he would resign with the club, he will likely become the highest performing catcher in Orioles History.

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	From	To	G	HR	OPS
1	Chris Hoiles	23.4	1989	1998	894	151	.833
2	Rick Dempsey	21.3	1976	1992	1245	75	.674
3	Matt Wieters	14.6	2009	2015	758	100	.743
4	Gus Triandos	13.0	1955	1962	953	142	.751
5	Andy Etchebarren	9.4	1962	1975	730	46	.652

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/30/2015.

All that said, I would not offer Wieters anything beyond a Qualifying Offer.  While I think he will be a bargain to any club that signs him, the team already has Caleb Joseph behind the plate.  Joseph was left exposed in December 2013 for the Rule 5 draft and no one took him.  He did not look smooth behind the plate with the club frantically playing him around the diamond to see if they could find a better fit.  The bat played well enough in the minors, but a lack of walks made it appear unlikely that he would be able to succeed at higher levels.

When Wieters went down in 2014, Joseph was brought up.  He hit poorly, but all of a sudden he looked good behind the plate when looking at his performance through Pitch f/x.  With tools available to measure that skill, it became something you could definitively point to in order to show that he had value.  Still, the club doubted him and traded for Nick Hundley.  Joseph's bat has developed though and it appears to be at worst average for a catcher.  His arm and blocking are sufficient, but his pitch framing has remained excellent.  He is a 2 WAR catcher and is highly cost controlled as well as cost controlled in a way that arbitration hearings undervalue his skills.

As such, it makes little sense for the Orioles to try to sign Wieters, but it makes complete sense for the club to submit a Qualifying Offer.


Wei-Yin Chen, LHSP
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Of course
Projected Contract: 4 / 56 MM
Fastball: 91 mph, Curveball: 73 mph, Slider: 83 mph, Changeup: 79 mph

Past Five Seasons:

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	FIP	IP	SO9	BB9	bWAR	fWAR
2011	25	Chunichi	8	10	2.68		164.2	5.1	1.7
2012	26	Baltimore	12	11	4.02	4.42	192.2	7.2	2.7	2.6	2.3
2013	27	Baltimore	7	7	4.07	4.04	137.0	6.8	2.6	1.8	2.0
2014	28	Baltimore	16	6	3.54	3.89	185.2	6.6	1.7	1.8	2.5
2015	29	Baltimore	11	8	3.34	4.16	191.1	7.2	1.9	3.8	2.8
MLB (4 seasons)			46	32	3.72	4.14	706.2	1.2	2.2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/1/2015.

In 2011, I was bullish on Chen.  I thought at worst he was a solid late inning arm out of the pen and would be a lock down setup man.  The likely role for him was as a back end rotation arm who I suggested a 2/10 contract.  The Orioles wound up doing far better getting him 3/12 with a one year team option.  Overall, they paid Chen 16 MM over four years for about 55 MM worth of value.  I would argue that his signing was the most important signing of Duquette's time in Baltimore based on pure value.  Second, that would be Nelson Cruz.  Neither were expected to do what they wound up doing.  After all, Tsuyoshi Wada was also signed with Chen and the Orioles decided against offering Cruz a two year deal.

Anyway, after four years, Chen finds himself as the franchise's eighth most valuable left handed pitcher.  If he would resign with the club, he would wind up around Mike Cuellar or Steve Barber.

Rk	Player	bWAR	W-L%	IP	ERA+
1	Dave McNally	25.7	.616	2652.2	107
2	Mike Flanagan	21.8	.549	2317.2	100
3	Scott McGregor	20.2	.561	2140.2	98
4	Mike Cuellar	17.4	.619	2028.1	109
5	Steve Barber	17.1	.559	1414.2	115
6	Erik Bedard	12.9	.541	658.0	118
7	Billy O'Dell	11.1	.460	585.1	128
8	Wei-Yin Chen	10.1	.590	706.2	110
9	B.J. Ryan	7.7	.457	379.1	127
10	Tippy Martinez	7.5	.565	752.1	112

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/1/2015.

However, I would be cautious in resigning Chen.  Although Chen dealt with nagging injuries in Japan, he largely has been injury free here in the States.  However, it is clear that he does get fatigued.  Combine that with his shoulder issues as a younger pitcher and I have concerns about whether or not he would maintain his current level of performance for the next four or five years.  As a mid-level payroll club, paying full market value on Chen makes little sense to me.  As such, I expect the club to offer the Qualifying Offer, Chen rejecting it, and Chen making back regardless.  The Orioles will get a modest comp pick between the first and second rounds.

* The original document stated that Pedro Strop instead of Tommy Hunter was part of the Uehara deal. Strop was the PTBNL in the Mike Gonzalez deal.