21 October 2015

Rumor Has It...2016 Orioles Edition (10/21/15)

In this series, we will try to provide you some information on players rumored to be of interest to the Orioles with a few notes.

Articles included in this edition:
This, That, and the Other - Roch
Who Can Generate Power for the Red Sox - Cafardo

Chris Young, RHSP
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: No
Qualifying Offer: Not Expected
Projected Contract: 1 / 8 MM
Fastball: 86 mph; Slider: 80 mph; Change Up: 80 mph
Last Five Seasons:
Year
AgeWLERAIPERA+FIPBB9SO9bWARfWAR
2011
32
1
0
1.88
24.0
199
4.32
4.1
8.3
1.0
 0.3
2012
33
4
9
4.15
115.0
92
4.50
2.8
6.3
0.9
 1.1
2013 
2014
35
12
9
3.65
165.0
100
5.02
3.3
5.9
2.0
 0.0
2015
36
11
6
3.06
123.1
135
4.52
3.1
6.1
2.5
 0.9
11 Yrs
76
58
3.69
1179.0
109
4.39
3.4
7.2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/19/2015.
Chris Young is a somewhat controversial figure over the past few years where his performance has exceeded what his expectations would be according to his peripherals.  In the past year, one might well have laid it upon the Royals defense as saving him from many runs.  The year before was spent in Seattle, but there have been no solid relationships between stadiums and outperformance of FIP.  This begs the question of whether what Young is doing is reflective of a true talent or that he has been fortunate over the last 300 innings pitched.

You may also be familiar that Chris Young was a major component of one of the deals Buck Showalter supposedly pushed hard for which also sent over Adrian Gonzalez for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.  That horrific deal is one of the concerns why many fear what would come from Buck having greater influence in the front office.  For the Padres, Young and Gonzalez helped make the team respectable for a few years while Eaton and Otsuka were parts of an incredibly underwhelming Texas squad.

Personally, I am concerned about how well a pitcher like Young would do at Camden Yards.  Tossing an 86 mph fastball with a groundball rate of about 25% are not exactly the kind of metrics you would want for a home run friendly park.  Furthermore, a concern about soft tosser is that when they begin to fall apart, the descent is rapid and extreme.  A one year deal would not be the worst thing in the same way one year deals for Vladimir Guerrero or Garrett Atkins was also not the worst thing.  I think it would be unadvisable though to sign him as I thought it unadvisable to sign either Guerrero or Atkins.

Brandon Moss, 1B/COF (LHB)
Arbitration Eligible: Yes, 9.1 MM projected
Currently Under Contract: Arbitration Years
Qualifying Offer: Not Expected
Projected Contract: 1 / 9 MM
Last Five Seasons
Year
AgePAHRBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS+bWARfWAR
2011
27
6
0
0
2
.000
.000
.000
-100
-0.1
-0.1
2012
28
296
21
26
90
.291
.358
.596
162
2.1
2.3
2013
29
505
30
50
140
.256
.337
.522
136
2.0
2.1
2014
30
580
25
67
153
.234
.334
.438
119
2.4
2.5
2015
31
526
19
49
148
.226
.304
.407
90
-0.5
0.6
9 Yrs
2656
110
252
699
.243
.322
.450
110
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/19/2015.
Brandon Moss is an interesting player.  He is largely rumored as a non-tender candidate due to a large expected contract coming his way.  However, based on previous success, our contract algorithm puts his value right in line with the expected arbitration figure.  With that in mind, it can be assumed that the Cardinals will hold on to Moss even if they do not wish to pay him for 2016 because someone will be willing to pay him and hand over a mid-level or so prospect in return.

For the Orioles, Moss would provide potential value and has enough of an ability to play first base and the outfield to be part of a flexible lineup that I lobbied for in the blueprint series.  Personally, I would be more interested in targeting Matt Joyce because he should come in several million cheaper and provide similar value on a one year deal.

Alex Gordon, COF (LHB)
Arbitration Eligible: No
Currently Under Contract: Player Option for 12.5 MM
Qualifying Offer: Expected (15.8 MM)
Projected Contract: 7 / 168 MM
Last Five Years:
Year
AgePAHRBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS+bWARfWAR
2011
27
690
23
67
139
.303
.376
.502
140
7.2
6.6
2012
28
721
14
73
140
.294
.368
.455
123
6.3
5.5
2013
29
700
20
52
141
.265
.327
.422
103
4.2
3.7
2014
30
643
19
65
126
.266
.351
.432
118
6.6
6.6
2015
31
422
13
49
92
.271
.377
.432
120
2.8
2.8
9 Yrs
4818
134
468
1000
.269
.348
.435
112
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 10/19/2015.
Alex Gordon is another interesting player because his value appears to be similar to Chris Davis' and he also has red flags attached.  While Gordon has had a better career than Davis, he is coming off a season where a few questions arose (Davis' questions date from his 2014 atrocious year).  While 2015 has not been bad for Gordon, it was the first season where he was merely average in the field.  His stellar play in seasons past was largely connected to his fielding prowess.  His moderate power and good walk rate rounded that value out.

If he truly is a 20+ MM AAV kind of player, it would be easier to bet on him.  The likely causes of his average defensive play was his groin injury.  Those injuries tend to reoccur during a season, but an offseason of rest should be good for what ails his aching loins.  I would have greater concern if it was a hamstring issue.  While I do not expect him to match his stellar years defensively, he should be able to provide good defense for several more seasons.  My greater concern is that I doubt how well players age who depend on a high on base percentage to go along with moderate power.  Investing this much in a player who could turn into Shin Soo Choo could hurt greatly.  However, I must note that Gordon's defense is far greater than what Choo offered.

Personally, I would be willing to give Gordon six or seven years, but I would look to something more similar in AAV as to what I would expect Zobrist to make: 17 or 18 MM.  I think Gordon will be able to find more money elsewhere.  Additionally, losing a first round pick for a club like the Orioles who have low levels of talent in their farm system seems like a poor idea for the long term health of this franchise.

Conclusion
As you can probably tell, I am not impressed by any of these as a fit for the Orioles.  Chris Young looks too vulnerable for Camden Yards with his extreme flyball tendencies.  Brandon Moss looks promising, but I fear he would cost too much for the level of risk you are assuming.  Alex Gordon is a great player to have, but I question how well he will age as well as losing a first round pick for signing him.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have to say, I would stake my life on Alex Gordon NOT getting that kind of a contract. I would be somewhat surprised if he surpassed 100 million. MLBTR projects Davis at 6yr 144 and it is absolutely absurd to me to suggest Gordon could get 7yrs 168. 24MM AAV?? Baseball Reference projects Gordon at .264/.344/.424 in 2016 (since when did they start doing projections??). I cannot begin to stress how mind-blowing 7yrs 168 would be to me. Then again, Choo did get 7yrs 130 so I guess you never know. But then again, Choo slashed .285/.423/.462 the previous season as opposed to Gordon's .271/.377/.432. I'd peg Gordon at 6yrs 120, at most. I just don't think teams will pay that much extra for a guy's glove, especially an aging player.

Jon Shepherd said...

Your life is precious.

:)

Anonymous said...

Steve Adams of MLBtr has Alex Gordon in the 95-110 million range on their most recent live chat.
Why thank you very much

Anonymous said...

Are you mistaking me for the person who you're having a twitter spat with? Because that isn't me...

Matt Perez said...

Adams wrote:

"I'm a bit lower on Gordon just because of his age, but I think he's in the $95-110MM range, and there are others I've spoken to that think I'm too pessimistic with that price."

Sounds like he's agreeing that his opinion is considered low. Personally, I think he gets six years. 24M a year is higher than I'd bet on but I think he breaks 20M. I also think that getting out of Kansas City and into Camden Yards will help his home run totals and that he'll flirt with 30 if he gets 600 PAs.

Jon Shepherd said...

No...sometimes I think things are funny that apparently are far more amusing in my head.

Jon Shepherd said...

Anyway...sorry...obviously I did not properly express my tone as being light hearted. I think Gordon getting something akin to Choo makes sense.

Every year people tend to be surprised by cost, including me, so I tend to trust the algorithm instead of my gut.