How Much Is That Oriole In The Window?

As the deadline comes upon us, I figured it might be useful to run through some general value approximations of players.  I took long term performance projections and adjusted them to their known or estimated salaries over the remaining years of team control.  The idea is to approximate their supposed value as a sum of their performance value (given what it is likely to cost on the open market) minus their actual cost.

You may notice that no player has a negative value.  Really, the only three players in danger of that are Ubaldo Jimenez, J.J. Hardy, and Bud Norris.  In Ubaldo's case, his track history suggests a backend rotation arm level of play which balances things out.  For Hardy, the baseline on a shortstop is so low that things even out there, too.  For Bud, well, he has done well in the recent past, so the current is outweighted by his deeper past.  For the players on the 40 man roster who are further down the totem pole, it makes sense for so many to break even.

It is actually impressive that the players below are projected to be at worst even money.  It is something that was not true during the Andy MacPhail era with salary bombs like Brian Roberts and, even, Nick Markakis weighing things down.  Plus, that era also enjoyed seasonal players deficits in guys like Vladimir Guerrero.

Anyway, on to the list:

Name	Age	Yrs	Value	Known or Est Money Left
Adam Jones	29	10	29 MM	54 MM through 2018
Ubaldo Jimenez	31	10	3 MM	30 MM through 2017
J.J. Hardy	32	11	1 MM	32 MM through 2017
Wei-Yin Chen	29	4	12 MM	1.5 MM through 2015
Chris Davis	29	8	11 MM	4 MM through 2015
Darren O'Day	32	8	5.5 MM	1.2 MM through 20015
Bud Norris	30	7	0 MM	3 MM through 2015
Matt Wieters	29	7	8 MM	2.7 MM through 2015
Dylan Bundy	22	1	33 MM	29 MM through 2021
Tommy Hunter	28	8	4 MM	1.5 MM through 2015
Chris Tillman	27	7	21 MM	16 MM through 2017
Steve Pearce	32	9	3 MM	1.6 MM through 2015
Miguel Gonzalez	31	4	23 MM	14 MM through 2017
Brian Matusz	28	7	2 MM	5.3 MM through 2016
Zach Britton	27	5	11 MM	26 MM through 2018
Travis Snider	27	8	3 MM	3.5 MM through 2016
Ryan Flaherty	28	4	6 MM	5 MM through 2017
Manny Machado	22	4	58 MM	32 MM through 2018
David Lough	29	4	1 MM	5 MM through 2018
Brad Brach	29	5	1 MM	6 MM through 2018
Kevin Gausman	24	3	31 MM	21 MM through 2019
T.J. McFarland	26	3	0 MM	7 MM through 2019
Jimmy Paredes	26	5	3 MM	8 MM through 2019
Jonathan Schoop	23	3	28 MM	20 MM through 2019
Caleb Joseph	29	2	30 MM	21 MM through 2020
Steve Clevenger	29	5	11 MM	7 MM through 2018
Nolan Reimold	31	7	2 MM	2 MM through 2016
Chris Parmelee	27	5	0 MM	8 MM through 2019
Cesar Cabral	26	3	0 MM	8 MM through 2020
Chaz Roe	28	3	0 MM	10 MM through 2021
Henry Urrutia	28	1	0 MM	8 MM through 2021
Christian Walker	24	2	4 MM	12 MM through 2021

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/24/2015.

When we get to some of the guys off the 40 man roster, there have been a number of studies that have addressed the value of those players.  He is a general rule of thumb:

Pitchers
Ranked 1-25 - 35 MM
Ranked 26-50 - 20 MM
Ranked 51- 100 - 10 MM
Second tier prospects not in the top 100 - 5 MM

Hitters
Ranked 1-25 - 40 MM
Ranked 26-50 - 20 MM
Ranked 51-75 - 15 MM
Ranked 76-100 - 10 MM
Second tier prospects not in the top 100 - 7 MM

For the Orioles, you can probably place Bundy and Harvey in the 26-50 range due to their respective medical concerns.  Wright, Wilson, and maybe Givens would fall into the 5 MM grouping.  It would be difficult for me to consider anyone else in that range.  Other pitchers, like Bridwell, would be more of a team-specific throw-in that would be worth something by essentially just smoothing out risk a little bit.  When we think of hitters, Jomar Reyes has worked himself into the 76-100 ranking.  Chance Sisco and, maybe, Dariel Alvarez and Trey Mancini, would find themselves in the 7 MM grouping.  Beyond that, there really is not much to mention on the farm.

Anyway, now you all are armed enough to be dangerous when discussing trades.