30 July 2015

How Much Is That Oriole In The Window?

As the deadline comes upon us, I figured it might be useful to run through some general value approximations of players.  I took long term performance projections and adjusted them to their known or estimated salaries over the remaining years of team control.  The idea is to approximate their supposed value as a sum of their performance value (given what it is likely to cost on the open market) minus their actual cost.

You may notice that no player has a negative value.  Really, the only three players in danger of that are Ubaldo Jimenez, J.J. Hardy, and Bud Norris.  In Ubaldo's case, his track history suggests a backend rotation arm level of play which balances things out.  For Hardy, the baseline on a shortstop is so low that things even out there, too.  For Bud, well, he has done well in the recent past, so the current is outweighted by his deeper past.  For the players on the 40 man roster who are further down the totem pole, it makes sense for so many to break even.

It is actually impressive that the players below are projected to be at worst even money.  It is something that was not true during the Andy MacPhail era with salary bombs like Brian Roberts and, even, Nick Markakis weighing things down.  Plus, that era also enjoyed seasonal players deficits in guys like Vladimir Guerrero.

Anyway, on to the list:

Name
AgeYrsValueKnown or Est Money Left
29
10
29 MM
54 MM through 2018
31
10
3 MM
30 MM through 2017
32
11
1 MM
32 MM through 2017
29
4
12 MM
1.5 MM through 2015
29
8
11 MM
4 MM through 2015
32
8
5.5 MM
1.2 MM through 20015
30
7
0 MM
3 MM through 2015
29
7
8 MM
2.7 MM through 2015
22
1
33 MM
29 MM through 2021
28
8
4 MM
1.5 MM through 2015
27
7
21 MM
16 MM through 2017
32
9
3 MM
1.6 MM through 2015
31
4
23 MM
14 MM through 2017
28
7
2 MM
5.3 MM through 2016
27
5
11 MM
26 MM through 2018
27
8
3 MM
3.5 MM through 2016
28
4
6 MM
5 MM through 2017
22
4
58 MM
32 MM through 2018
29
4
1 MM
5 MM through 2018
29
5
1 MM
6 MM through 2018
24
3
31 MM
21 MM through 2019
26
3
0 MM
7 MM through 2019
26
5
3 MM
8 MM through 2019
23
3
28 MM
20 MM through 2019
29
2
30 MM
21 MM through 2020
29
5
11 MM
7 MM through 2018
31
7
2 MM
2 MM through 2016
27
5
0 MM
8 MM through 2019
26
3
0 MM
8 MM through 2020
28
3
0 MM
10 MM through 2021
28
1
0 MM
8 MM through 2021
24
2
4 MM
12 MM through 2021
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/24/2015.


When we get to some of the guys off the 40 man roster, there have been a number of studies that have addressed the value of those players.  He is a general rule of thumb:

Pitchers
Ranked 1-25 - 35 MM
Ranked 26-50 - 20 MM
Ranked 51- 100 - 10 MM
Second tier prospects not in the top 100 - 5 MM

Hitters
Ranked 1-25 - 40 MM
Ranked 26-50 - 20 MM
Ranked 51-75 - 15 MM
Ranked 76-100 - 10 MM
Second tier prospects not in the top 100 - 7 MM

For the Orioles, you can probably place Bundy and Harvey in the 26-50 range due to their respective medical concerns.  Wright, Wilson, and maybe Givens would fall into the 5 MM grouping.  It would be difficult for me to consider anyone else in that range.  Other pitchers, like Bridwell, would be more of a team-specific throw-in that would be worth something by essentially just smoothing out risk a little bit.  When we think of hitters, Jomar Reyes has worked himself into the 76-100 ranking.  Chance Sisco and, maybe, Dariel Alvarez and Trey Mancini, would find themselves in the 7 MM grouping.  Beyond that, there really is not much to mention on the farm.

Anyway, now you all are armed enough to be dangerous when discussing trades.

5 comments:

Jeremy said...

Very interesting, thanks for compiling this.

Re: non 40-man prospects, Zach Davies would have some value as a second-tier prospect, no? At least in the same range as Wilson IMO. What about Ariel Miranda?

Regardless, the lack of attractive prospects without injury concerns is disheartening.

Jon Shepherd said...

Sure, you could make that argument for Davies.

Miranda, he cannot be traded at the moment, but he would eventually be a fringe B level prospect with value as a middle inning reliever in a year or two.

It would not be surprising to see the Orioles trade some of their relief arms who are without options just to free things up a bit. They want Givens in Baltimore right now, but have no space without waiving someone.

Anonymous said...

To be fair, the worst thing the O's did in recent memory was trade for Mark 'Peanut" Reynolds and his horrible defence. Without him at third Baltimore is a .500 team and left-handed pitchers don't blow up.

Jon Shepherd said...

Huh?

Nick Christy said...

I am assuming the Huh was in regards to the Mark Reynolds comment. Does anyone understand it at all? I feel like I just time traveled back 4 years ago, I am scratching my head to find how Mark Reynolds has anything to do with this article or the Orioles at all. Anybody?