The Orioles Don't Have an MVP Candidate, So Who's the MVO?

Photo by Keith Allison

The Orioles have been on Fox two times this month. Each time, an Orioles player has been mentioned as a potential AL MVP candidate. One Saturday, it was Nelson Cruz’s numbers being compared to Mike Trout in the context of an MVP debate. The next week, Adam Jones was talked about as a possible MVP candidate.

Do either of these Orioles have a legitimate shot at winning the AL MVP award? There are often a few debates around the MVP award in terms of what qualifies a player for the award. Some feel pitchers shouldn’t be considered for the award. Others debate whether there is a difference between the “best” player and the “most valuable” player. To start, I’ll look at Cruz and Jones in the simplest terms, without considering pitchers and without differentiating between “best” and “most valuable.” This does not necessarily reflect my feelings on the award, but it makes sense to evaluate their candidacy in the broadest sense and only then try to refine our evaluation if they survive the broader evaluation first.  

In my evaluation, I’ve included stats that wouldn’t be part of my decision on who to vote for, but that voters consider.  The AL rank is in parenthesis.

	HR	OPS	wRC+	fWAR
Cruz	39 (1st)	.857 (10th)	136 (10th)	3.5 (25th)
Jones	25 (13th)	.782 (24th)	117 (27th)	5.2 (8th)

Other than home runs, neither guy finds himself in the top 7 of any category among all qualified AL batters.

Sometimes an argument is made that a player has been particularly “clutch” in a season and that this isn’t necessarily reflected in his other offensive totals. To look at that, we have Win Probability Added (WPA), which evaluates how much a player does or doesn’t contribute to his team’s win expectancy. Neither player seems to have an argument that his numbers were especially “clutch”, as Cruz ranks 19^th (2.01) and Jones is 42^nd (0.23).

Cruz and Jones are both great players. They both deserved their All-Star selections this year. The Orioles would not be where they are without these two guys. However, neither of them are legitimate contenders for the AL MVP. Yes, the Orioles have lost significant pieces of their puzzle this year, mainly due to injury. But, as Matt pointed out, the Orioles have gotten contributions from many different places, enabling them to succeed without a monster season from any one player (but great seasons from a few).

So, without a serious MVP candidate, who is the Most Valuable Orioles player (MVO)? Cruz and Jones are obviously serious contenders. To revisit the pitcher discussion from above, I don’t think any Orioles pitcher has had a dominant enough season to be considered for MVO over an everyday player. Zach Britton has been great and Darren O’Day is having a stellar season. But I don’t think a reliever’s impact is enough to merit consideration over an everyday player.

Of Orioles players with over 350 PA’s, only 3 appear in the top 5 for both fWAR and wRC+. While neither of these stats are or should be the sole basis of an MVP vote, I wouldn’t vote for someone not in the top 5 in both when there are players who are. The 3 players are Cruz, Jones, and Steve Pearce. Here are their numbers and team rank:

	HR	OPS	wRC+	fWAR
Cruz	39 (1st)	.857 (2nd)	136 (2nd)	3.5 (4th)
Jones	25 (3rd)	.782 (3rd)	117 (3rd)	5.2 (1st)
Pearce	17 (4th)	(.897 1st)	151 (1st)	4.4 (2nd)

Pearce rates the highest in the two rate stats, but not in the two counting stats. Is playing time the only thing keeping Pearce from being first in all 4 categories? Maybe, but there’s also the argument that more playing time would expose Pearce for the 31-year-old journeyman he has been until this season. To me, there’s not a clear cut winner here, as Jones’ lead in fWAR answers his rank in wRC+. An argument could be made for any of these 3 players based off of this chart.

Defense would also have to play a factor in this discussion

Pearce's UZR is from his time at 1B and OF. For Cruz, I only included his time in LF. Jones has only played in CF this year. 

I'm not ready to assign a lot of meaning to Pearce's relatively sky high UZR. In fact, I thought about only including DEF because of how much the UZR piece could incorrectly tilt the scales here. I put more weight into Jones' much smaller lead in DEF than into Pearce's lead in UZR.

If the offensive numbers leave all 3 still looking like viable candidates for MVO, Cruz's defense puts a serious damper on his chances. Additionally,the fact that Cruz's 2nd half fWAR is only 0.5 puts Jones and Pearce are both ahead of him for MVO. 

Jones has a healthy lead in fWAR, partially because of his defense, but mainly because he has had a significant more amount of playing time than Pearce. Jones can't be faulted for being an everyday player. If anyone is to be penalized in terms of playing time, it's Pearce, because we can only speak hypothetically about what his output would be if he were to have played as regularly as Jones. Really, Jones should receive additional marks for his consistent playing time.

All 3 of these guys have had terrific years. While Jones' numbers are likely the least surprising, he's been the best all-around player and has done it over a larger sample size than his closest competition, Steve Pearce. Jones' play is enough to earn him the MVO award. This, coupled with his role as the face of the team and perceived clubhouse leader, make Adam Jones my choice for 2014 MVO. 

All stats (current before play began on 9/16/14) pulled from Fangraphs and ESPN