Expanded Roster: Optimism for Nick Markakis?

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Orioles Magic: Optimism for Nick Markakis?

by Albert Lang

Arbitrary end points, selection bias to suit a narrative, et cetera…whatever. See below:

Carl Yastrzemski side-by-side with Nick Markakis through age 26 seasons

Name	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
Carl Yastrzemski	3927	95	42	11.2%	11.7%	.165	.315	.293	.373	.458
Nick Markakis	3369	89	43	9.9%	14.5%	.165	.329	.298	.368	.463

*Above, and all subsequent charts, pulled from Fangraphs

At one point in time, a reasonable man could argue that Nick Markakis was on a Hall of Fame trajectory and that his career to date looked incredibly similar to one of the best to ever play the game: Yaz.

That said, certainly expecting any sort of linear or similar development from ballplayers, especially young ones, is faulty. However, it’s human nature to assume a commonality among players with this many plate appearances at such a tender age, yet the difference between Carl Yastrzemski’s age 27 season and Nick Markakis’s could not be wider.

In 1967, Yaz hit 44 HRs and batted .326/.418/.622. Yaz won the Triple Crown and led the league in total bases, runs, hits, OBP and slugging percentage.

In 2011, Nick Markakis hit 15 HRs and batted .284/.351/.406. He posted a worse slugging percentage than Yaz did OBP (wrong denominators, I know).

Unfortunately, given Yaz played a long time ago, it’s hard to see how/why he succeeded while Markakis “failed.” Yaz was a good player through his age 26 season, but he had only averaged 16 HRs a year – a far cry from the 44 he would hit as a 27-year-old. The following season (1968), Yaz hit just 23, before posting back-to-back 40 HR seasons. Following his last 40 HR season, though, Yaz averaged 18 HRs from 1971-1979.

In Yaz’s first six years, he had one 20 HR season; Markakis had two 20 HR seasons in his first three years. It wasn’t as if Yaz was hitting more doubles, either, as he collected just 21 more through age 26 than Markakis did.

Even if you were a pessimistic Orioles fan (like me), you could see a glimmer of hope leading into 2011 with Markakis, especially when looking at his similarities with Yaz. Heck, even if Markakis was half the player at 27 that Yaz was, he’d be a 6 fWAR guy.

That said, a baseball observer without much skin in the game or need for Orioles hope (magic) would have simply cited the decline of Markakis as reason why he’d come nowhere near duplicating Yaz’s tremendous season. There is no denying that Markakis had a three year decline in ISO and went from 12% (2008) to 8% (2009) to 6.1% (2010) HR/FB rates. In addition, after hitting 23, 20 and 18 HRs from 2007-2009, Markakis hit 12 in 2010.

However, Yaz had similar up and down power numbers: after hitting 19 HRs in 1962, Yaz hit 14 and 15 the following years – not quite a rock bottom 12, but still eons away from 40+.

Yaz did smack 20 dingers in 1965, but followed that up with just 16 in 1966. Basically, aside from 1965, his ISO was pretty much perched around .155, i.e., before 1966 it would have been hard to argue that Yaz was a budding slugging juggernaut cresting toward MVP world-beater status.

So, if there wasn’t much difference between their HRs, doubles or bulk power (ISO), how did Yaz succeed while Markakis “failed?”

Looking at the small chart above, the biggest difference in the two players occurs in walk and strike-out rates.

Season	Team	BB%	K%
1961	Red Sox	7.8%	14.9%
1962	Red Sox	9.2%	11.4%
1963	Red Sox	14.2%	10.8%
1964	Red Sox	11.6%	13.9%
1965	Red Sox	12.3%	10.2%
1966	Red Sox	12.4%	8.8%
Season	Team	BB%	K%
2006	Orioles	7.9%	13.3%
2007	Orioles	8.6%	15.8%
2008	Orioles	14.2%	16.2%
2009	Orioles	7.9%	13.8%
2010	Orioles	10.3%	13.1%

As Yaz matured, he walked more and struck out less. While, in 2008, Markakis showed exceptional walk skills (as Yaz did in his third year), Markakis was unable to maintain anything close to that approach. Furthermore, Markakis paired his walk rate with a much higher K%, while Yaz walked more and struck out less. Yaz took a step back after his third season, with his K% > BB%, but it’d be the last time he struck out at higher rates than he walked. Meanwhile, Markakis nearly halved his walk rate after his break-out plate discipline season, coming nowhere near maintaining that level of success.

Quite simply, while the power, doubles or batted ball rates weren’t all that different, it appears their approach was. Yaz quickly became a walk machine, who didn’t strike out. Markakis didn’t.

That said, there is some underlying optimism with Markakis, albeit in some small sample size mumbo-jumbo.

In just 304 plate appearances this season, he is posting his lowest K%. He’s also posting a tiny 3.9% swinging strike rate (the average is 9% this year and has been around 8.5% since 2006). In addition, his 12.5% HR/FB rate is nearly identical to his 2008 year, when he was a 6.3 fWAR player (i.e., half Yaz) (although a lot of value in that comes from defense). Lastly, his ISO (.173) would be the third best of his career and the first time he bested .160 since 2008.

Will Markakis hit 40 HRs in 2013? Doubtful. But, don’t be shocked with 30. Heck, he could hit 16 this year in 530 plate appearances (ZIPs projections). It’d be a cagey bet to put your money behind Markakis with 20+ HRs in 2013.

So, it seems there might be a bit of magic left in Markakis. But is there Hall of Fame magic?

Through AGE 28 Seasons

Name	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
Reggie Smith	8050	314	137	11.1%	12.8%	.202	.295	.287	.366	.489
Dave Winfield	12358	465	223	9.8%	13.6%	.192	.296	.283	.353	.475
Jack Clark	8230	340	77	15.3%	17.5%	.209	.289	.267	.379	.476
Harold Baines	11092	384	34	9.6%	13%	.175	.303	.289	.356	.465
Carney Lansford	7905	151	224	7%	9.1%	.121	.302	.290	.343	.411
Nick Markakis	4504	117	56	9.6%	13.5%	.160	.321	.295	.364	.455

This is a pretty interesting cluster of players. Winfield is the only Hall of Famer here, but legitimate (although failing arguments) can be made for Reggie Smith and Harold Baines and, to a lesser extent, Jack Clark being enshrined.

Can Nick Markakis become the next Dave Winfield? He is ahead of Winfield’s hits pace, and this takes into account that Markakis doesn’t have a full age 28 season. Of course, Markakis has nowhere near the speed or power that Winfield possessed. In fact, Markakis is overshadowed on this list when it comes to power by most players. Aside from Carney Lansford, Markakis has the lowest slugging percentage and ISO – and Lansford was an infielder.

That said, Markakis has the best OBP, owing to a decent walk rate and possessing the best batting average.

Production from Age 28 Season to the End of their Careers

Name	PA	HR	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG
Dave Winfield	8489	331	113	9.8%	13.9%	.197	.294	.282	.351	.478
Reggie Smith	4281	186	56	12.5%	13.6%	.215	.303	.295	.381	.510
Jack Clark	4179	188	18	19.3%	21.9%	.219	.297	.258	.402	.478
Harold Baines	7015	244	5	11.4%	12.9%	.172	.305	.291	.37	.463
Carney Lansford	4067	70	134	7.2%	6.7%	.108	.290	.285	.342	.393

After turning 28, this group averaged just over 200 HRs and 1,381 hits. That would give Markakis at least 314 HRs and 2,537 hits for his career. In addition, doing some quick math gets this group to a .283 batting average and .376 OBP. Each one of these players increased their BB% after their age 28 season. So there’s some optimism that Markakis can start walking more, i.e., what Yaz accomplished in the earlier stages of his career.

If Nick Markakis finished his career with a .292 average, .373 OBP, 314 HRs and 2,537 hits, Orioles fans should be pleased and not overly shocked. Even if he comes up a bit short on those numbers, he’ll have been the best player the Orioles developed since Mike Mussina.