In a previous post about six weeks ago, I simply illustrated that first half run differential was a slightly better indicator of second half record than it was to simply look at the first half record. The primary issues of using either are basically that an inflated record can result in a team trying to play out their good hand by adding complementary pieces, increasing their talent level. First half run differential can also be misleading because a good differential combined with an underperforming record could result in a team selling off their assets.
As we enter September, something new could be happening. Many teams, such as one like the Twins or Astros, see this time as a chance to look at their younger players and get a read on them against MLB competition. These teams still want to win, but they often put out a less than their best lineup. As a result, September can be a pretty peculiar month.
For today, I will be assuming that a team's record to date is an accurate representation of their performance. I will be trying to determine how many more wins the Orioles will add to their current 75. To do this, I used Bill James' log5 method. We get the following table:
Log5 puts the Orioles at a 15.6-12.4 record for the remainder of the season. This put the expectation for the team to finish with 90 (91 if you round up) wins. Last year, Boston would have been the second wild card and they had 90 wins. In other words, Baltimore is in a strong position. Within the AL East, the Yankees have largely the same slate with divisional opponents along with the A's and Twins as their out of division series. The Rays have it a bit harder as their out of division foes include the Rangers and White Sox which are both playoff contending teams.
Games Left Win Pct. ExWins Blue Jays 6 0.448 3.7 Rays 6 0.548 3.1 Red Sox 6 0.456 3.6 Yankees 4 0.567 2 A's 3 0.567 1.5 Mariners 3 0.485 1.7
It should be an exciting month.