2012 Playoffs: Who Gets In? (July 18)

Over half of the season is over and the trade deadline is fast approaching.  It is in times like this that an organization needs to decide whether to push forward and make the team better through a trade or to deal away veteran talent for prospects.  To help provide some context, I decided to project how well each team is expected to do over the rest of the season.  The projections are based on each team's fWAR, translating that into a winning percentage (Replacement Level Wins + Position Player WAR + Pitching WAR), and multiplying that with games left.  The idea is that this will help determine which moves to make.

This will be a recurring feature as the season plays on.

American League

Team	Wins	Proj. Wins	Total	*
NYY	56	43	99	East
TEX	55	44	99	West
CHW	50	38	88	Central
LAAA	50	40	90	WC 1
DET	47	36	83	2 GB
TBR	47	33	80	5 GB
OAK	46	34	80	5 GB
CLE	46	33	79	6 GB
BAL	46	30	76	9 GB
BOS	46	39	85	WC 2
TOR	45	33	78	7 GB
KCR	38	34	72	13 GB
SEA	39	30	69	16 GB
MIN	38	32	70	15 GB

This method expects the three division leaders to remain where they are as well as LAAA keeping the first Wild Card position.  A bit of a surprise, this method predicts that the Red Sox will take the second Wild Card by a narrow margin against Detroit. 

A rough arbitrary measure I typically use is that for every month left, a team should consider to be able to make up three games.  From that perspective, I would say that Detroit, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Cleveland, and the Red Sox are all in a fight for the second Wild Card.  Those are the teams that can realistically see themselves as buyers.  Of those, Tampa, Oakland, and Cleveland need to be big buyers.  Little pieces (e.g., Jim Thome, Juan Pierre) will not greatly affect their team's chances.  They need big items.  Detroit, as long as Boston does not greatly upsize, can be more tentative at the deadline with only a couple games of difference.

Perhaps the fan base with the most to be concerned about are the Orioles and Blue Jays.  Both teams appear far more involved in the Wild Card race than they really are.  Although spending most of the year in first or second place, the Orioles rate out using fWAR as the worst team in the AL.  The Blue Jays do not seem quite as bad, but still have quite an uphill climb.

The Royals, Mariners, and Twins are not fooling themselves and should do whatever they can to trade for as many pieces to help them over the next five years.

National League

Team	Wins	Proj Wins	Total	*
WSN	52	41	93	East
CIN	51	39	90	Central
SFG	50	37	87	West
PIT	50	34	84	4 GB
ATL	49	41	90	WC 1
LAD	48	34	82	6 GB
STL	47	41	88	WC 2
NYM	46	36	82	6 GB
MIA	44	34	78	10 GB
ARI	43	40	83	5 GB
MIL	43	38	81	7 GB
PHI	41	37	78	10 GB
CHC	36	31	67	21 GB
SDP	37	29	66	22 GB
COL	35	33	68	20 GB
HOU	34	29	63	25 GB

Similar to the AL, this method also sees the top division leaders remaining in the lead.  Atlanta is expected to move up a slot and take the first Wild Card while the Cardinals would jump over the Dodgers and Pirates for the second one.

The teams in play for the Wild Card appear to be the Pirates, Braves, Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets, and Diamondbacks.  All of them need to get better to increase their odds of making it to the postseason.  There does not appear to be a race as close as the Tigers and Red Sox, but there are several teams in striking distance.

The Marlins and Brewers may be the only two teams in the NL that think they have a decent shot at the playoffs.  The Phillies may think they need to improve as well to respect their fan base (a la a Orioles 1996).  They really have been much better than their record indicates, but they have dug themselves quite a hole to get out.

The Cubs, Padres, Rockies, and Astros already appear to recognize they have no hope to compete.  This is not news to any of them.