How have things changed?
American League
With only a few days passing, some of the season ending tallies have changed considerably. Detroit, Chicago, Oakland, and Toronto has seen somewhat large changes. It will be interesting to see in the weeks ahead how much noise these projections have. It may well be that fluctuations in the short sampling periods are evened out in the long term. It may also be that we see periods where certain teams are outperforming or underperforming their talent level and we see regression.
Team Wins Proj. Wins Total * Change NYY 57 40 97 East -2 TEX 56 42 98 West -1 DET 51 35 86 Central +3 LAA 51 37 88 WC 1 -2 BAL 50 27 77 8 GB +1 CHW 50 34 84 1 GB -4 OAK 50 33 83 2 GB +3 TBR 49 32 81 4 GB +1 BOS 48 37 85 WC 2 0 CLE 47 34 81 4 GB +2 TOR 47 28 75 10 GB -3 KCR 40 32 72 13 GB 0 SEA 41 29 70 15 GB +1 MIN 39 30 69 16 GB -1
National League
There is less movement on the National League side. It is also nice to see that according to these rankings that the Orioles are expected to win more remaining games than the Astros. So there is that.
Team Wins Proj Wins Total * Change WSN 54 38 92 East -1 CIN 54 37 91 Central +1 PIT 53 33 86 3 GB +2 SFG 53 35 88 West +1 ATL 52 38 90 WC 1 0 LAD 51 33 84 4 GB +2 STL 49 40 89 WC 2 +1 NYM 47 34 81 8 GB +1 ARI 46 39 85 3 GB +2 MIL 44 36 80 9 GB -1 MIA 44 32 76 13 GB -2 PHI 41 36 77 12 GB -1 SDP 40 28 68 20 GB +2 CHC 38 30 68 21 GB +1 COL 36 32 68 20 GB 0 HOU 34 26 60 29 GB -3
Just for fun...what would the draft order for next year look like?
2013 Projected Draft
Selection Team Total 1 HOU 60 2 CHC 68 3 COL 68 4 SDP 68 5 MIN 69 6 SEA 70 7 KCR 72 8 TOR 75 9 PIT Appel 10 MIA 76 11 PHI 77 12 BAL 77 13 MIL 80 14 TBR 81 15 CLE 81 16 NYM 81 17 OAK 83 18 LAD 84 19 CHW 84 20 PIT 86 21 ARI 85 22 BOS 85 23 DET 86 24 LAA 88 25 SFG 88 26 STL 89 27 ATL 90 28 CIN 91 29 NYY 97 30 WAS 92 31 TEX 98
4 comments:
Small sample size, but Gonzalez and Tillman have done well(tillman's fiasco at Minnesota was due to an expensive error)
Surely, they are pitching better than the men whom they replaced, and should be worth a few additional wins?
Remember, playoffs aside, the goal is .500.
These two don't make that more likely?
A league average player is worth about 2 wins over the course of a season. So, if Gonzalez and Tillman are average pitchers and replacing replacement level pitchers, then they may add 2 wins total.
Gonzalez and Tillman aren't replacing replacement level pitchers. They're replacing Matusz and Arrieta.
First of all, let's agree to use ERA to determine how Matusz, Hammel and Arrieta have performed. They're not in the rotation at the current time and don't project to be back this year(if Gonzo, Tillman and Britton stick). What they've done is what they'll do this year. If none of them come back this year then we know how they performed even if it was bad luck.
If we can agree to that, then we'd have Britton, Gonzo and Tillman replacing three pitchers with an average ERA of 4.96. Given that they have FIPs respectively of 4.27, 5.86 and 3.32 - we could hope for a combined FIP of 4.48 or to save .5 runs per nine innings.
Assuming they pitch 225 innings that means they would save maybe 12.5 runs or add a 1.25 wins.
But if Britton and Tillman can continue to keep doing what they're doing and the Os added a pitcher who put up a 4 ERA to replace Gonzo then they'd save 27.5runs or maybe 3 wins total. That would mean they'd have a good shot at hitting .500.
Sure...team may improve 1-3 games. I do not think that really is different from what I wrote when I suggested a 2 win bump.
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