29 March 2012

2012 Season Predictions

Yesterday, I posted the expected draft order for 2013.  Today, I am posting the projected season win totals.  Projections were devised by using projection models (e.g. ZiPS, MARCEL, ROTOWORLD) and then used to caluclate expected wins.

These numbers should not be understood as definites.  A basic quick and dirty rule is to look at those values with a plus and minus of 10 games.  With that perspective, the realm of possibility for teams to make the AL playoffs (~93 wins for AL Wild Card) are: New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Texas, and LAAA.  Yes, six teams in the AL are projected to be playing meaningful games.  Detroit is not expected to have any trouble getting to the post season this year.  The AL East and AL West should be highly contested.



New York 97 65 div
Boston 92 70 wc
Tampa Bay 83 79
Toronto 79 83
Baltimore 68 94


Detroit 90 72 div
Cleveland 78 84
ChiSox 74 88
Kansas City 74 88
Minnesota 70 92


Texas 95 67 div
LAAA 93 69 wc
Oakland 74 88
Seattle 69 93

AL MVP J. Bautista Toronto
Cy Young CC Sabathia New York

Our projections see the NL as more of a free for all.  The teams viable for NL Playoffs (~90 wins) are: Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta, Washington, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, San Francisco, Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles Dodgers.  Eleven of the sixteen teams are projected as having a realistic chance of making the playoffs.  Every division poses potentially exciting end of September play.



Philadelphia 94 68 div
Miami 86 76 wc
Atlanta 85 77
Washington 82 80
New York 72 90


St. Louis 89 73 div
Cincinnati 87 75 wc
Milwaukee 84 78
Chicago 73 89
Pittsburgh 71 91
Houston 62 100


San Francisco 89 73 div
Arizona 86 76
Colorado 81 81
LAD 80 82
San Diego 73 89

NL MVP J. Votto Cincinnati
Cy Young C. Kershaw LAD


SeanP said...

Would you mind explaining your methodology a bit more? I was pretty surprised to see the Yankees at 97 and the Rays at 83.

Anonymous said...

No Faith in the Home Team

Jon Shepherd said...

I used the win projection from the WAR estimation to determine winning percentages. I then used those winning percentages in calculating head to head results. That will give you expected wins per series. Add it all up and there you go.