These numbers should not be understood as definites. A basic quick and dirty rule is to look at those values with a plus and minus of 10 games. With that perspective, the realm of possibility for teams to make the AL playoffs (~93 wins for AL Wild Card) are: New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Texas, and LAAA. Yes, six teams in the AL are projected to be playing meaningful games. Detroit is not expected to have any trouble getting to the post season this year. The AL East and AL West should be highly contested.
American East New York 97 65 div Boston 92 70 wc Tampa Bay 83 79 Toronto 79 83 Baltimore 68 94 Central Detroit 90 72 div Cleveland 78 84 ChiSox 74 88 Kansas City 74 88 Minnesota 70 92 West Texas 95 67 div LAAA 93 69 wc Oakland 74 88 Seattle 69 93 AL MVP J. Bautista Toronto Cy Young CC Sabathia New York
Our projections see the NL as more of a free for all. The teams viable for NL Playoffs (~90 wins) are: Philadelphia, Miami, Atlanta, Washington, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, San Francisco, Arizona, Colorado, Los Angeles Dodgers. Eleven of the sixteen teams are projected as having a realistic chance of making the playoffs. Every division poses potentially exciting end of September play.
National East Philadelphia 94 68 div Miami 86 76 wc Atlanta 85 77 Washington 82 80 New York 72 90 Central St. Louis 89 73 div Cincinnati 87 75 wc Milwaukee 84 78 Chicago 73 89 Pittsburgh 71 91 Houston 62 100 West San Francisco 89 73 div Arizona 86 76 Colorado 81 81 LAD 80 82 San Diego 73 89 NL MVP J. Votto Cincinnati Cy Young C. Kershaw LAD
3 comments:
Would you mind explaining your methodology a bit more? I was pretty surprised to see the Yankees at 97 and the Rays at 83.
No Faith in the Home Team
I used the win projection from the WAR estimation to determine winning percentages. I then used those winning percentages in calculating head to head results. That will give you expected wins per series. Add it all up and there you go.
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