08 February 2012

Cup of jO's: 2012 Composite Orioles Prospect Rankings

It has gotten to that point in the year when we can do some composite rankings.  I decided to throw this together when we had a question on Joe Mahoney and how the Depot is not very high on him.  Mahoney certainly is an interesting player.  There seems to be a dichotomy between the two national ranking sources I used (Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein) and the two more local sources (Nick Faleris and Tony Pente).  Both the local sources do not see Mahoney as a top 20 player whereas Goldstein and BA ranked him 12th and 13th, respectively.  Perhaps more importantly is that general consensus that the Orioles system is top heavy like a lollipop.  Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado profile as elite talents with Jonathan Schoop as fringe elite.

The rankings below use an average of the four sources rank to determine a mean rank.  Any players not found in a particular source's top 15 were considered 'unranked' and assigned a rank value of 20.  The column to the left has many scouting reports for the players listed below.  Simply click on the name to the left.

2012 Orioles Composite Prospect Rankings

1. Dylan Bundy
    Mean - 1; Low - 1; High - 1
2. Manny Machado
    Mean - 2; Low - 2; High - 2
3. Jonathan Schoop
    Mean - 3; Low - 3; High - 3
4. Nicky Delmonico
    Mean - 5; Low - 4; High - 6
5. Parker Bridwell
    Mean - 6; Low - 4; High - 7
6. L.J. Hoes
    Mean - 6.25; Low - 5; High - 10
7. Jason Esposito
    Mean - 6.75; Low - 5; High - 8
8. Dan Klein
    Mean - 8.75; Low - 8; High - 10
9. Bobby Bundy
    Mean - 10.25; Low - 4; High - unranked
10. Clayton Schrader
    Mean - 13; Low - 9; High - unranked
11. Xavier Avery
    Mean - 13.25; Low - 8; High - unranked
12. Michael Wright
    Mean - 14.25; Low - 10; High - unranked
13. Eduardo Rodriguez
    Mean - 14.5; Low - 11; High - unranked
14. Ryan Adams
    Mean - 15.25; Low - 9; High - unranked
15. Glynn Davis
    Mean - 15.5; Low - 9; High - unranked
A couple quick notes:
  • There is apparently industry agreement on the first three talents: Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop
  • The most volatile ranking is Bobby Bundy who was ranked as high as fourth (by Nick Faleris) and unranked by Baseball America.


SeanP said...

Hmm, why didn't you use John Sickels as one of your sources? Sickels rated Machado #1 and Bundy #2. It won't change the overall data much, but it seems odd that you didn't use one of the main prospect evaluators.

Jon Shepherd said...

I find Sickels' work leaves me wanting. I used to use his stuff, but stopped that a couple years ago or so.

Feel free to add those rankings in your head if you wish.

SeanP said...

Just out of curiosity, what about his work leaves you wanting?

Jon Shepherd said...

I like Sickels. His work is what got me into a lot of the prospect analysis. I think he was the trendsetter for a good five years or so.

I just think there are better sources out there. I often find Sickels' writeups to be peculiarly vague summaries that are held together with abstract scout lingo and statistics.

I prefer using Goldstein, Law, and BA as my national accumulators and, at times, evaluators. Faleris, based on his work, is going in the direction of local to national in focus. He, like those above, thoroughly explain their thoughts. In some ways, I think Faleris is the gold standard in how to write a report well. I am not saying that he is the greatest scout. He certainly is learning a great deal each year, but the way he writes his reports is solid. Pente is a good source of local information, but you should ignore any usage of statistics from him.

SeanP said...

Okay, good to know. Thanks for the thorough response.