The O's won their fourth straight last night, blanking Tampa 7-0. Guthrie and Price will lock horns today, as Baltimore looks to keep their momentum moving towards a plus-.500 record!
As part of this weekend series, Camden Yards will host (after Sunday's game) the Brooks Robinson High School All-Star Game. While it was not a strong year for the local high school crop, from a draft perspective, there are a number of interesting names to keep in mind for those taking in the showcase. First, here are the rosters:
Brooks Robinson North Team
1 Justin Fratantuono - Calvert Hall
2 Eric Upton - Dulaney High School
3 Patrick Rogers - Mount St. Joseph
4 TJ Pipik - Reservoir
5 Ryne Willard - Smithsburg High School
6 Andrew Clow - C. Milton Wright
7 Brendan Butler - John Carroll (Orioles, 50th Rd)
8 Shane Campbell - Kenwood
9 KJ Hockaday - John Carroll (Orioles, 14th Rd)
10 AJ Lardo - Loyola Blakefield
11 Bobby Ruse - C. Milton Wright
12 Cody Harman - Westminster HS
13 Kory Britton - Atholton
16 Ryan Redinger - Mountain Ridge High School
17 Matt Bosse -Calvert Hall College HS
Larry Sheets - Gilman
Steve Myers - North Hagerstown
Anthony Blackburn - C. Milton Wright
Brooks Robinson South Team
1 Buddy Elgin - Kent County High
2 Zachery Hawk - Meade Senior High School
3 Coty Mulder - St. Michaels
4 Ernest Baldwin - Bishop McNamara
5 Peter Bowles - Quince Orchard
6 Danny Breen - Northern High School
7 Chris Brown - Rockville
8 Alex Brown - Meade Senior High
9 Brent Jones - Severna Park
10 Kyle McKelvey - St. Michaels
11 Ryan Metzler - Archbishop Spalding High School
12 Zachary Sterling - JM Nennett
15 Matt Armour - Elkton High School
16 William Bouey - Sherwood
17 Zach Morris - DeMatha Catholic High School
Brain Femi - St. Michaels
Billy Goodman - Sherwood
Jim Simms - Chesapeake
**Bolded names selected in this week's MLB Draft
Draft fans will immediately recognize Kevin (K.J.) Hockaday, whom the Orioles tabbed with their 14th Round pick on Tuesday. Hockaday will be spending the summer with Youse's Orioles of the Cal Ripken Collegiate Baseball League (a wood bat league consisting primarily of college players). He is a strong kid with the potential to develop some true pro power as he continues to mature. Hockaday was just outside our Top 300 draft-eligible players, and will be scoped this summer to see if his skillset is far enough along that he can tackle Rookie ball in the Minors. If not, he'll ship off to College Park to join the Terps, and could emerge as a top 5 round talent in three years.
Two other names to note for Sunday's All-Star game include Shane Campbell and AJ Lardo. Campbell spun a one-hitter the last time I saw him, down in Jupiter for the WWBA World Championship. He was a member of the Royals Baseball Club, a prestigious tournament team that also boasted premium draft talent in Roman Quinn (Port St. Joe HS, Fla.), Derek Fisher (Cedar Crest HS, Penn.), Julius Gaines (Luella HS, Ga.), Daniel Norris (Science Hill HS, Tenn.) and Carlos Rodon (Holly Springs HS, N.C.). In the game, Campbell was 87-89 mph with his fastball out of a compact delivery with some deception. AJ Lardo has been a mainstay on the showcase circuit, and has just been caught as a "tweener" when it comes to Major League attention. He does everything well, just nothing spectacularly. As a bit undersized, he'll head to the University of Maryland along with Campbell, Hockaday, William Bouey, Bobby Ruse and Kory Britton (think the UMD staff will be in attendance?).
Congrats to all the players, their families and their high school teams -- the experience playing at Camden will be a wonderful one, and hopefully one that some of them are able to repeat several years from now wearing orange and black.
10 June 2011
Cup of jO's: Father's Day Contest Reminder
No game last night and I spent much of it writing an article for the main Sweetspot blog for ESPN.
Here is a reminder for the DVD Father's Day contest. I do not think anyone has entered yet...so lots of chances to win.
---
Father's Day Contest
I am pleased to announce that we are able to provide four (4) DVDs of Baltimore Orioles Vintage World Series with the help of A&E Entertainment and MLB Productions. Surprising to us, four DVDs do not cover out daily readership, which now numbers in the hundreds (Thank You). This means we need to have a contest to determine where these DVDs go.
More about the prize:
To enter, like us on Facebook and post on our wall about a memory you cherish where a father or father figure (you can be the father figure, it can be an Uncle, neighbor, Grandfather, etc.) took a child to a baseball game. We did not have anything to give away on mother's day, so moms are certainly welcome here as well. There are not many rules . . . PG-rated stories only, at least as long as a haiku and try not to exceed three paragraphs. On Father's Day, we will highlight the stories randomly chosen on the blog and will then start getting information from the winners for the DVDs to be mailed directly to them.
Good luck and we look forward to reading all of your stories on Camden Depot's Facebook page (you can access it from the Facebook inline on the left hand side of the screen).
Here is a reminder for the DVD Father's Day contest. I do not think anyone has entered yet...so lots of chances to win.
---
Father's Day Contest
I am pleased to announce that we are able to provide four (4) DVDs of Baltimore Orioles Vintage World Series with the help of A&E Entertainment and MLB Productions. Surprising to us, four DVDs do not cover out daily readership, which now numbers in the hundreds (Thank You). This means we need to have a contest to determine where these DVDs go.
More about the prize:
All the glory and classic moments of the Orioles' World Series Championships from 1966 to 1983 are digitally preserved on this official DVD. Spanning three decades and three managers - Hank Bauer, Earl Weaver, and Joe Altobelli - the enduring, common trait of the Baltimore Orioles' success was stellar pitching, well-timed power, and peerless defense.
The arrival of Frank Robinson in 1966 catapulted the Orioles to their first Fall Classic. Baltimore's pitchers dominated, holding the Los Angeles Dodgers to just two runs for the entire four-game World Series. Four Octobers later, the Birds power hitting and fielding were on display. The rally-ending defense of Brooks Robinson and the club's 10 home runs in five games helped the O's to a second championship. In 1983, the familiar formula and a familiar face held an encore. The Orioles' staff, including Jim Palmer who provided a bridge to the 1966 victors, stifled the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing only seven runs in five games.
To enter, like us on Facebook and post on our wall about a memory you cherish where a father or father figure (you can be the father figure, it can be an Uncle, neighbor, Grandfather, etc.) took a child to a baseball game. We did not have anything to give away on mother's day, so moms are certainly welcome here as well. There are not many rules . . . PG-rated stories only, at least as long as a haiku and try not to exceed three paragraphs. On Father's Day, we will highlight the stories randomly chosen on the blog and will then start getting information from the winners for the DVDs to be mailed directly to them.
Good luck and we look forward to reading all of your stories on Camden Depot's Facebook page (you can access it from the Facebook inline on the left hand side of the screen).
09 June 2011
Cup of jO's: Some quick thoughts on signing picks
Last night was a good one for Zach Britton. He had not pitched well in his previous two outings and came out strong last night. Mark Reynolds has been secretly good with the bat over the past 28 days with an 844 OPS. We need to score more runs though. We keep hovering around .500, but our run differential is about 50 runs worst than the next closest team in the AL East.
---
When I look over the draft, I wonder how many players will actually be signed to contracts. A concern when the Orioles eliminated Bluefield from the minor league system was that there would be fewer chances for a player chosen later in the draft to prove himself. However, that wound up seeming like an expense with a minimal return. Later round picks signing for near minimum are highly unlikely to be useful pieces. The exception are overslots, but those guys are committed to and do not need to prove themselves in rookie ball. The contract keeps them.
The players that are hurt most by the elimination of Bluefield are going to be the later round, less competitive college guys. Players such as the recently released Brian Conley might be a good example. He was an older college player with good plate discipline. That sort of player might have no role with the team these days. Several players are sitting back in extended spring training and waiting for Aberdeen to open up. The Gulf Coast League Orioles have only so many slots with Dominican Summer League players taking a couple of them.
So, my ballpark figure would be the team signs at most 25 of this year's picks.
---
 |
| Bluefield is now part of the Blue Jays' system |
The players that are hurt most by the elimination of Bluefield are going to be the later round, less competitive college guys. Players such as the recently released Brian Conley might be a good example. He was an older college player with good plate discipline. That sort of player might have no role with the team these days. Several players are sitting back in extended spring training and waiting for Aberdeen to open up. The Gulf Coast League Orioles have only so many slots with Dominican Summer League players taking a couple of them.
So, my ballpark figure would be the team signs at most 25 of this year's picks.
08 June 2011
Cup of jO's: Recapping Day 2 of the Draft
Last night the Orioles appeared to tire of scoring runs by stringing singles. Instead, they won by stringing solo home runs. Luke Scott, a last minute addition in left field when Nolan Reimold woke up with neck spasms, did not let his bum shoulder affect him much. He played decent defense, cranked a home run onto Eutaw Street, and barely missed another (settling for a double). Ryan Adams displayed some soft hands at second, but his range looks rather limited there. With Brian Roberts given another two weeks before new time tables are set for his recovery, we may see a lot of Robert Andino and Ryan Adams playing second.
I would also like to thank MASN for hosting me at the game last night. I was able to interact with Adam Jones (who was verbally engaged with an older fellow trying to convince Adam that he needs to tell Buck to have the team sacrifice bunt more and take infield/outfield before each game), see Rick Dempsey's ring up close, shake Flanny's hand, briefly hang out with Joe Orsulak, and engorge myself on crab cakes, oysters, and shrimp.
---
Day 2 of the draft mildly surprised me. After selecting Dylan Bundy and opening up the second round with the selection of Jason Esposito (3B, Vanderbilt, selected 64th, composite rank 53rd), I figured that this year's M.O. would be to address organizational needs with slot players. To me, Esposito is an organizational guy with some upside. He has a good glove, but questionable bat speed. Bat speed is an aspect of a player that can be quite difficult to correct. I think the only waste to significantly improve that with a college player would be to rework a swing. The Orioles' scouts may see something there. The next two picks were also slot moves, I think. Mike Wright (RHP, East Carolina, selected 94th, composite rank 200th) and Kyle Simon (LHP, Arizona, selected 125th, composite rank 198th) were both reasonable selections, but should certainly be around slot.
Jordan then surprised me with some picks that are overslots. Matt Taylor (LHP, Middle Georgia JC, selected 155th, unranked) is a JuCo with a commitment to Georgia. You will often see JuCos move on to a four year school to improve draft status. A lefty successfully competing there is likely to pull more eyes with success meaning a higher round and more money. JuCos are historically underscouted and the players know this. As such, you typically need to throw a little bit more money at them to get them to sign.
The next pick, Nick Delmonico (3B, Farragut HS (TN), selected 185th, composite rank 51st) is said to be asking for first round money, which would be about 1-2 million. That kind of money is not typical for a Joe Jordan overslot. I imagine this might be more of a summer follow and if he shows more improvement with the bat, maybe the Orioles go in deep on him. Personally, I would have gone in a different direction with overslotting higher up in the draft. I think later overslots become a function of competing scouting groups. I am more comfortable with an overslot several teams identify as being a quality player rather than those who only a few think that way. Every organization saw Delmonico and probably saw him several times. The O's snagged him at 185. That imparts me with a bit of doubt.
Nick will come through later and give more specific writeups for players selected. He are the rest of the players ranked in the composites:
Rd 8 Johnny Reutiger, OF, Arizona State, 245th selection, 196th composite rank
Rd 12 Jason Coats, OF, Texas Christian, 365th selection, 89th composite rank
I would also like to thank MASN for hosting me at the game last night. I was able to interact with Adam Jones (who was verbally engaged with an older fellow trying to convince Adam that he needs to tell Buck to have the team sacrifice bunt more and take infield/outfield before each game), see Rick Dempsey's ring up close, shake Flanny's hand, briefly hang out with Joe Orsulak, and engorge myself on crab cakes, oysters, and shrimp.
---
Day 2 of the draft mildly surprised me. After selecting Dylan Bundy and opening up the second round with the selection of Jason Esposito (3B, Vanderbilt, selected 64th, composite rank 53rd), I figured that this year's M.O. would be to address organizational needs with slot players. To me, Esposito is an organizational guy with some upside. He has a good glove, but questionable bat speed. Bat speed is an aspect of a player that can be quite difficult to correct. I think the only waste to significantly improve that with a college player would be to rework a swing. The Orioles' scouts may see something there. The next two picks were also slot moves, I think. Mike Wright (RHP, East Carolina, selected 94th, composite rank 200th) and Kyle Simon (LHP, Arizona, selected 125th, composite rank 198th) were both reasonable selections, but should certainly be around slot.
Jordan then surprised me with some picks that are overslots. Matt Taylor (LHP, Middle Georgia JC, selected 155th, unranked) is a JuCo with a commitment to Georgia. You will often see JuCos move on to a four year school to improve draft status. A lefty successfully competing there is likely to pull more eyes with success meaning a higher round and more money. JuCos are historically underscouted and the players know this. As such, you typically need to throw a little bit more money at them to get them to sign.
The next pick, Nick Delmonico (3B, Farragut HS (TN), selected 185th, composite rank 51st) is said to be asking for first round money, which would be about 1-2 million. That kind of money is not typical for a Joe Jordan overslot. I imagine this might be more of a summer follow and if he shows more improvement with the bat, maybe the Orioles go in deep on him. Personally, I would have gone in a different direction with overslotting higher up in the draft. I think later overslots become a function of competing scouting groups. I am more comfortable with an overslot several teams identify as being a quality player rather than those who only a few think that way. Every organization saw Delmonico and probably saw him several times. The O's snagged him at 185. That imparts me with a bit of doubt.
Nick will come through later and give more specific writeups for players selected. He are the rest of the players ranked in the composites:
Rd 8 Johnny Reutiger, OF, Arizona State, 245th selection, 196th composite rank
Rd 12 Jason Coats, OF, Texas Christian, 365th selection, 89th composite rank
07 June 2011
2011 Depot Draft Coverage: Day 2 Chat
We are going to open up a draft room here, where we'll run our Shadow Picks and comment some on what path the Orioles take with picks 2-10. As always, comments and questions are welcome!
Cup of jO's: Recapping Day 1 of the Draft
The Orioles won last night in Major League play. The score was good, but it certainly is difficult to win games by stringing singles together. No extra base hits were hit last night.
---
With the fourth selection in last night's draft, the Orioles chose Dylan Bundy (RHP, Owasso HS OK) who is the younger brother of Oriole farmhand Bobby Bundy. There was much hand ringing and gnashing of teeth before the selection as many thought the Orioles would pass on the "30 million dollar man" and instead select the "20 million dollar man," Archie Bradley. It would have been disappointing to have selected Archie Bradley, but the different in talent and the likely signing bonus is not much between the two. I personally am disappointed with Dylan Bundy because I see better options. That said, both Bundy and Bradley are potential first selection picks some years in the draft. This year's talent is just deep. A prospect in year's past, like Deck McGwire, would have dropped from being a top 10 pick to going in the supplemental round. That is how much talent there is in this year's draft.
In real time, Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Trevor Bauer went off before the Orioles' selection. Anthony Rendon was available, but the Orioles chose to pass. I am of the opinion that you do not pass on elite positional talent. The report on his shoulder injury might be worse than I am aware, but it is difficult to pass. To me, it is unquestionable that Rendon has the best chance of anyone in this draft to become a star. With our Shadow Draft (we have done a real time shadow draft for several years now), we selected Anthony Rendon with our unprotected pick (we chose Karsten Whitson last year and he did not sign with the Padres, so we received compensation) and prep bat Bubba Starling. We are also targeting prep LHP Daniel Norris in the second round. He is asking for over 3MM to sign.
The reason we went big in our Shadow Draft is largely due to Boston and Tampa having a plethora of picks in the first and first supplementary rounds. The Rays selected ten players yesterday and most of them have the potential of being above average or star level. Boston chose an amazing collection of for talents. For these reasons, the real Orioles should also be willing to go big in the second round today. That might mean throwing down money for Josh Bell (LF, Jesuit Prep HS) or Daniel Norris (LHP, Science Hill HS). The Orioles need to be aggressive and they need to collect as much falling talent as possible because other teams in the AL East have the benefit of taking great quantity of high quality talent.
Do I think the Orioles will overslot like mad?
No, I don't. I think you will see them put their eggs in the Bundy basket and then apply themselves to Jordan's typical fringe overslots peppered in with slot college bats and arms. I am expecting to write about my disappointments tomorrow morning.
Here is a good interview with the for-all-intents-and-purposes new Oriole Dylan Bundy. It should also be mentioned that Dylan's older brother, Bobby, pitched well for Frederick last night going 7 IP with 1 run and 6 strikeouts. We have long been a fan of his and are excited to see him finally putting it all together this year. It would not surprise us to see both Bundys in the O's rotation in 2014. Bobby profiles as a 3 slot and Dylan could be an ace.
---
In real time, Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, and Trevor Bauer went off before the Orioles' selection. Anthony Rendon was available, but the Orioles chose to pass. I am of the opinion that you do not pass on elite positional talent. The report on his shoulder injury might be worse than I am aware, but it is difficult to pass. To me, it is unquestionable that Rendon has the best chance of anyone in this draft to become a star. With our Shadow Draft (we have done a real time shadow draft for several years now), we selected Anthony Rendon with our unprotected pick (we chose Karsten Whitson last year and he did not sign with the Padres, so we received compensation) and prep bat Bubba Starling. We are also targeting prep LHP Daniel Norris in the second round. He is asking for over 3MM to sign.
The reason we went big in our Shadow Draft is largely due to Boston and Tampa having a plethora of picks in the first and first supplementary rounds. The Rays selected ten players yesterday and most of them have the potential of being above average or star level. Boston chose an amazing collection of for talents. For these reasons, the real Orioles should also be willing to go big in the second round today. That might mean throwing down money for Josh Bell (LF, Jesuit Prep HS) or Daniel Norris (LHP, Science Hill HS). The Orioles need to be aggressive and they need to collect as much falling talent as possible because other teams in the AL East have the benefit of taking great quantity of high quality talent.
Do I think the Orioles will overslot like mad?
No, I don't. I think you will see them put their eggs in the Bundy basket and then apply themselves to Jordan's typical fringe overslots peppered in with slot college bats and arms. I am expecting to write about my disappointments tomorrow morning.
Here is a good interview with the for-all-intents-and-purposes new Oriole Dylan Bundy. It should also be mentioned that Dylan's older brother, Bobby, pitched well for Frederick last night going 7 IP with 1 run and 6 strikeouts. We have long been a fan of his and are excited to see him finally putting it all together this year. It would not surprise us to see both Bundys in the O's rotation in 2014. Bobby profiles as a 3 slot and Dylan could be an ace.
06 June 2011
Dempsey's Army Presents: Last Week in Chats (May 30- June 5, 2011)
Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...
Jack
Moore, FanGraphs.com
12:14
Comment From Walt
Hellickson or Z Britton in dynasty league?
12:17
Jack Moore: I prefer Hellickson. I think his process is a bit more repeatable,
as he's shown that he has strikeout stuff prior to this year (and I'd expect his
current 6.4 K/9 to rise soon). Britton is too reliant on control and ground
balls and I don't think we have enough of a sample to say he can keep up his
rates in either BB/9 or GB%
12:30
Comment From Dan
Mark Reynolds ranked 11th overall in ISO from 2008 - 2010. Do you see that power
returning this season or are you worried that something is wrong with him and
that power is gone?
12:31
Jack Moore: Power is pretty fickle in small samples. I haven't seen him play, so
there very well could be something wrong, but there's nothing in the numbers
that's overly concerning.
12:53
Comment From J
Thoughts on Eric Bedard?
12:55
Jack Moore: He's looking almost like the Bedard of the past. He might slip a
little and injuries are always a concern, but at the same time I also wouldn't
expect a pitcher in Safeco to keep a 13.2% HR/FB rate, so with that evening out
I don't think a 3.50-3.75 ERA the rest of the year is out of the question.
Jim
Callis, Baseball America
Dan (Lansing): Better pure stuff Bundy or Cole and how close are they?
Jim Callis: Better pure stuff is Cole, but Bundy is right on his heels and may
use his better. If I could only have one of them, I would take Bundy. That said,
I'd be thrilled with Cole too.
Nick (Tallahassee, Fl): What are your thoughts on the Oriole's taking Dylan
Bundy. How do you think them drafting Matt Hobgood effects that, if it does at
all?
Jim Callis: Not at all. Hobgood was drafted higher than his talent merited
because he would be a relatively easy sign. Hobgood was a legitimate late
first-round pick, but he's not comparable to Bundy.
Brooks Ripken (Philly): O's at 4? Just whoever is left of
Rendon,Cole,Hultzen,Bundy?
Jim Callis: Wouldn't rule Trevor Bauer out either.
Steve (Huntington Beach, CA): Out of all the good arms towards the top of this
years draft board, which do you think has the highest ceiling?
Jim Callis: Gerrit Cole, followed closely by Dylan Bundy.
JJ Cooper, Baseball
America
Jon (Michigan): Which would surprise you more, a frequent Hot Sheet contributor
becoming a ML bust or a Hot Sheet no-show becoming a solid ML regular? Is Zach
Britton the latter?
J.J. Cooper: Neither would surprise me. The Hot Sheet isn't the Top 100
Prospects list. This is a look at which prospects are hot right now. And when
you're looking at pitchers, strikeouts are one of the factors that works into
making the Hot Sheet. So a guy who piles up groundballs like Britton but few
strikeouts isn't going to make a lot of Hot Sheet appearances. But yeah, it
wouldn't surprise me at all to see Britton have a long big league career.
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus
Greg (Hanover, PA): Kevin, The Orioles will obviously come away with a big name
at #4. But the farm system needs a lot more help than that. Will there be 1st
round talent available when they pick again (#64) if they are willing to spend?
Kevin Goldstein: There are going to be a lot of big talents floating around
after the first, but whether or not they are at 64 is an open question. That
said, I don't think they'll spend big
after Bundy.
Jordan (Chevy Chase): Where would Manny Machado go in this year's draft?
Kevin Goldstein: Before Lindor.
Thom (Cincy): Who would be the one team in the top-half of Round 1, and the team
in the bottom-half, that you feel you have the least sense of how they'll pick?
Kevin Goldstein: First half, either Arizona at 3 or Baltimore at 4. Second half
is tough because of all the variables in front of them, but I have a good feel
(I think) for how some of the high school arms might go off the board.
JH (chicago): Love the Cole vs Hultzen comparison from earlier. How quickly
would you expect each to make their MLB debuts?
Kevin Goldstein: I'd but Hultzen gets their first. By end of 2012 wouldn't
shock. CRAZY polished.
Jack
Moore, FanGraphs.com
12:14
Comment From Walt
Hellickson or Z Britton in dynasty league?
12:17
Jack Moore: I prefer Hellickson. I think his process is a bit more repeatable,
as he's shown that he has strikeout stuff prior to this year (and I'd expect his
current 6.4 K/9 to rise soon). Britton is too reliant on control and ground
balls and I don't think we have enough of a sample to say he can keep up his
rates in either BB/9 or GB%
12:30
Comment From Dan
Mark Reynolds ranked 11th overall in ISO from 2008 - 2010. Do you see that power
returning this season or are you worried that something is wrong with him and
that power is gone?
12:31
Jack Moore: Power is pretty fickle in small samples. I haven't seen him play, so
there very well could be something wrong, but there's nothing in the numbers
that's overly concerning.
12:53
Comment From J
Thoughts on Eric Bedard?
12:55
Jack Moore: He's looking almost like the Bedard of the past. He might slip a
little and injuries are always a concern, but at the same time I also wouldn't
expect a pitcher in Safeco to keep a 13.2% HR/FB rate, so with that evening out
I don't think a 3.50-3.75 ERA the rest of the year is out of the question.
Jim
Callis, Baseball America
Dan (Lansing): Better pure stuff Bundy or Cole and how close are they?
Jim Callis: Better pure stuff is Cole, but Bundy is right on his heels and may
use his better. If I could only have one of them, I would take Bundy. That said,
I'd be thrilled with Cole too.
Nick (Tallahassee, Fl): What are your thoughts on the Oriole's taking Dylan
Bundy. How do you think them drafting Matt Hobgood effects that, if it does at
all?
Jim Callis: Not at all. Hobgood was drafted higher than his talent merited
because he would be a relatively easy sign. Hobgood was a legitimate late
first-round pick, but he's not comparable to Bundy.
Brooks Ripken (Philly): O's at 4? Just whoever is left of
Rendon,Cole,Hultzen,Bundy?
Jim Callis: Wouldn't rule Trevor Bauer out either.
Steve (Huntington Beach, CA): Out of all the good arms towards the top of this
years draft board, which do you think has the highest ceiling?
Jim Callis: Gerrit Cole, followed closely by Dylan Bundy.
JJ Cooper, Baseball
America
Jon (Michigan): Which would surprise you more, a frequent Hot Sheet contributor
becoming a ML bust or a Hot Sheet no-show becoming a solid ML regular? Is Zach
Britton the latter?
J.J. Cooper: Neither would surprise me. The Hot Sheet isn't the Top 100
Prospects list. This is a look at which prospects are hot right now. And when
you're looking at pitchers, strikeouts are one of the factors that works into
making the Hot Sheet. So a guy who piles up groundballs like Britton but few
strikeouts isn't going to make a lot of Hot Sheet appearances. But yeah, it
wouldn't surprise me at all to see Britton have a long big league career.
Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus
Greg (Hanover, PA): Kevin, The Orioles will obviously come away with a big name
at #4. But the farm system needs a lot more help than that. Will there be 1st
round talent available when they pick again (#64) if they are willing to spend?
Kevin Goldstein: There are going to be a lot of big talents floating around
after the first, but whether or not they are at 64 is an open question. That
said, I don't think they'll spend big
after Bundy.
Jordan (Chevy Chase): Where would Manny Machado go in this year's draft?
Kevin Goldstein: Before Lindor.
Thom (Cincy): Who would be the one team in the top-half of Round 1, and the team
in the bottom-half, that you feel you have the least sense of how they'll pick?
Kevin Goldstein: First half, either Arizona at 3 or Baltimore at 4. Second half
is tough because of all the variables in front of them, but I have a good feel
(I think) for how some of the high school arms might go off the board.
JH (chicago): Love the Cole vs Hultzen comparison from earlier. How quickly
would you expect each to make their MLB debuts?
Kevin Goldstein: I'd but Hultzen gets their first. By end of 2012 wouldn't
shock. CRAZY polished.
2011 Depot Draft Coverage: Day 1
Hi all, and welcome to Camden Depot's coverage of Day 1 of the Draft! We are going to be adding more to this entry, including links to our player reports and players to target for Day 1. Baltimore only has one pick -- 4th overall -- but Camden Depot will be selecting twice for our Shadow Draft. One for the Orioles actual spot, and one as a compensation for Karsten Whitson heading to Florida (Whitson was our shadow selection last year).
Our preference list for this first pick is as follows (click on player names for links to our full scouting reports):
Anthony Rendon / 3b / Rice Univ.
Gerrit Cole / rhp / UCLA
Bubba Starling / of/rhp / Gardner Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Sonny Gray / rhp / Vanderbilt Univ.
Dylan Bundy / rhp / Owasso HS (Owasso, Okla.)
Jed Bradley / lhp / Georgia Tech
Taylor Jungmann / rhp / Univ. of Texas
Danny Hultzen / lhp / Univ. of Virginia
Word is that Baltimore will be going off of this list and selecting Archie Bradley (rhp, Broken Arrow HS, Broken Arrow, Okla.). Bradley is ranked 6th overall among pitchers on the final DiamondScapeScouting.com positional rankings (click here). We'll have more on Archie Bradley a little later. Regarding our Shadow Draft, it looks like Gerrit Cole (rhp, UCLA) is set to be selected by Pittsburgh. Rendon's likely destination is Seattle, and it appears Arizona will be selecting between Danny Hultzen (lhp, Virginia) and Trevor Bauer (rhp, UCLA). With one protected pick and one unprotected pick this lines up well for us to select Sonny Gray (rhp, Vanderbilt) and Bubba Starling (of, Gardner Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan.).
I am going to be chatting all day long starting at 1pm Eastern, along with the fine folks at ProjectProspect.com -- we'll be broadcasting the chat through ProjectProspect.com, DiamondScapeScouting.com, and of course right here (window below)! Let's hear you O's fans; hopefully lots of comments and lots of questions!
Our preference list for this first pick is as follows (click on player names for links to our full scouting reports):
Anthony Rendon / 3b / Rice Univ.
Gerrit Cole / rhp / UCLA
Bubba Starling / of/rhp / Gardner Edgerton HS (Gardner, Kan.)
Sonny Gray / rhp / Vanderbilt Univ.
Dylan Bundy / rhp / Owasso HS (Owasso, Okla.)
Jed Bradley / lhp / Georgia Tech
Taylor Jungmann / rhp / Univ. of Texas
Danny Hultzen / lhp / Univ. of Virginia
Word is that Baltimore will be going off of this list and selecting Archie Bradley (rhp, Broken Arrow HS, Broken Arrow, Okla.). Bradley is ranked 6th overall among pitchers on the final DiamondScapeScouting.com positional rankings (click here). We'll have more on Archie Bradley a little later. Regarding our Shadow Draft, it looks like Gerrit Cole (rhp, UCLA) is set to be selected by Pittsburgh. Rendon's likely destination is Seattle, and it appears Arizona will be selecting between Danny Hultzen (lhp, Virginia) and Trevor Bauer (rhp, UCLA). With one protected pick and one unprotected pick this lines up well for us to select Sonny Gray (rhp, Vanderbilt) and Bubba Starling (of, Gardner Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan.).
I am going to be chatting all day long starting at 1pm Eastern, along with the fine folks at ProjectProspect.com -- we'll be broadcasting the chat through ProjectProspect.com, DiamondScapeScouting.com, and of course right here (window below)! Let's hear you O's fans; hopefully lots of comments and lots of questions!
2011 Draft
A few items...
If you are in need of a comprehensive draft site, go here.
If you want a summary of potential Orioles selections, go here.
If you want to see some overslot targets after the first round, go here.
Feel free to leave questions on this post or later ones. Twitter might be a bit crazy for some of us today.
If you are in need of a comprehensive draft site, go here.
If you want a summary of potential Orioles selections, go here.
If you want to see some overslot targets after the first round, go here.
Feel free to leave questions on this post or later ones. Twitter might be a bit crazy for some of us today.
Cup of jO's: No, Mr Jones. You Don't Have to Run Out Every Ball.
Yesterday, I was finally able to make use of my press pass again and make it to the rubber match between the Orioles and Blue Jays. Mark Reynolds crushed a home run. We do not need to speak of anything else.
Today is the draft and we aim to have a lot of draft items coming at you over the next couple days.
---
One thing I would like to rehash from yesterday's game was something that I wrote that resulted in a number of my readers becoming upset with me. In one of Adam Jones' plate appearances he hit a rocket to shortstop, Yunel Escobar. Escobar got good glove on the batted ball, Jones broke his stride, and then the ball popped out of Escobar's glove. Jones momentarily sped up until he saw that Escobar quickly recovered. Jones never had a shot at first whether he was running full speed the entire time or not.
In response, I wrote something close to the point of Jones really should not have been running that ball out at 100% because it really did not matter. This upset some people who follow my twitter account. I will try to go through my thinking on this one.
Chance of Success
When I was in instructional league, I played for the First National Bank Brewers. It is a memorable year for two reasons: 1) other kids cried when they faced me because I threw hard for a third grader and 2) I managed to get on base every plate appearance except for one. Only the second feat is pertinent to this conversation. I got on base every time because I was in the left handed batter's box, I was reasonably fast, and fielders at the instructional level can barely field and are almost completely unable to throw a ball in the air on target to first base. You have to run out every single batted ball because the chances of success are great.
As you move up through the ranks, fielding becomes exponentially better until it begins to plateau after high school and flat lines at the MLB level. At the MLB level, a batter facing an average defense is likely to benefit from an error once every 75 times up to bat. At my high school over a decade ago, a batter had a chance for an error to occur once every 15 at bats. I think we can all appreciate that difference. The chances that hustling will result in a man on base at the MLB level is far, far below what that would be at the high school level just using these two teams as examples. It simply does not happen very often, so hustling on every play should not be valued equally at each level of play due to the diminishing value of the effort.
I will try to put a number here using some assumptions. We already established an error now occurs once every 75 plate appearances (9 times every 700 PA). Let's assume that 1970 was the golden age of hustling. Then a batter had a chance of benefiting from an error every 55 plate appearances (13 times every 700 PA). When these two numbers in mind, lets say a modern batter, if hustling, would get on base an extra four times a year. Reaching on base via error is worth about 0.5 runs per event. This would mean that a batter would produce two more runs a year if he hustled all the time. That would mean an additional 0.2 wins per player hustling. An entire teams of hustlers would give you almost two wins more a season. That would be consequential to teams right on the bubble.
What is the cost?
It is also important to recognize that effort is not limitless. There is a cost. Players often speak of the grind of a season wearing down on them. Many will also speak of how a brutal sun and humidity leaves them barely hanging on at the end of a night. These qualitative assessments we have all heard and some of us have even felt these things. There is a cost to trying hard. Let's step through this in an extreme form of effect: injury.
Running out plays is a Cost / Benefit analysis
This last step is the most difficult one to take. I personally do not know how more likely a player is to be injured (or to become less effective) due to hustling. We can all agree there is a cost there, but I am not sure what that cost is. I am also sure we can agree that players should not fully hustle on every single play. It would be surprising to me to talk to someone who thinks a player should slide into the bag at the end of each play. It would simply make no sense because a player would be pointlessly increasing his chance of injury.
For me, a line drive straight at an infielder or a simple ground ball as occasions that would not make me demand a player to press his luck. I would prefer having his glove and his bat in the lineup instead of risking ineffectiveness by legging out a play that results in an out 98% of the time. I might be too conservative here. I don't think I am. To me, it seems like common sense. The problem is that hustling is risky for the team if the best players hustle. Their performance cannot be replaced and an extra ten runs a season is not worth a lot if there stands a small chance that a catastrophic injury might occur. It really is not about babying a player . . . it is about preserving your resources and employing them in a fashion to have the greatest chance of success.
One final thought, when I think of hustling I think of catchers and second basemen. These are rough and tumble positions. The career life span of players who play these positions are rather short. A career of getting bounced around at second base making the turn or getting hit by foul balls and barreling catchers at home results in a age curve where it is difficult to be a useful player past the age of 32. Although I have no proof that hustling causes similar effects, I think it is a reasonable position to assume that it does.
With that in mind, I must say: No, Mr. Jones, you do not have to run out every ball.
Today is the draft and we aim to have a lot of draft items coming at you over the next couple days.
---
One thing I would like to rehash from yesterday's game was something that I wrote that resulted in a number of my readers becoming upset with me. In one of Adam Jones' plate appearances he hit a rocket to shortstop, Yunel Escobar. Escobar got good glove on the batted ball, Jones broke his stride, and then the ball popped out of Escobar's glove. Jones momentarily sped up until he saw that Escobar quickly recovered. Jones never had a shot at first whether he was running full speed the entire time or not.
In response, I wrote something close to the point of Jones really should not have been running that ball out at 100% because it really did not matter. This upset some people who follow my twitter account. I will try to go through my thinking on this one.
Chance of Success
When I was in instructional league, I played for the First National Bank Brewers. It is a memorable year for two reasons: 1) other kids cried when they faced me because I threw hard for a third grader and 2) I managed to get on base every plate appearance except for one. Only the second feat is pertinent to this conversation. I got on base every time because I was in the left handed batter's box, I was reasonably fast, and fielders at the instructional level can barely field and are almost completely unable to throw a ball in the air on target to first base. You have to run out every single batted ball because the chances of success are great.As you move up through the ranks, fielding becomes exponentially better until it begins to plateau after high school and flat lines at the MLB level. At the MLB level, a batter facing an average defense is likely to benefit from an error once every 75 times up to bat. At my high school over a decade ago, a batter had a chance for an error to occur once every 15 at bats. I think we can all appreciate that difference. The chances that hustling will result in a man on base at the MLB level is far, far below what that would be at the high school level just using these two teams as examples. It simply does not happen very often, so hustling on every play should not be valued equally at each level of play due to the diminishing value of the effort.
I will try to put a number here using some assumptions. We already established an error now occurs once every 75 plate appearances (9 times every 700 PA). Let's assume that 1970 was the golden age of hustling. Then a batter had a chance of benefiting from an error every 55 plate appearances (13 times every 700 PA). When these two numbers in mind, lets say a modern batter, if hustling, would get on base an extra four times a year. Reaching on base via error is worth about 0.5 runs per event. This would mean that a batter would produce two more runs a year if he hustled all the time. That would mean an additional 0.2 wins per player hustling. An entire teams of hustlers would give you almost two wins more a season. That would be consequential to teams right on the bubble.
What is the cost?
a. At full exertion, we are forcing our body to our limits. This increases injury rate because we are challenging our tissues to withstand the stress we are placing on it. Simply put, you are more likely to injure yourself running a full sprint than you are walking.
b. As we tire, injury rates also increase. As our muscles fatigue, they are not able to access needed nutrients in a timely manner which increases chance of injury. As our muscles fatigue, we are less likely to be mechanically sound in our efforts. As we fatigue, our ability to focus decreases and we are more likely to put ourselves in situations that are not ideal. All of these increase the chance of injury.If a starter gets injured, it is likely that the player that will replace him in the lineup will be around replacement level. If you have a 3 WAR player (good but not great), the break even point would be losing 10 games to injury. If we are talking about an MVP caliber player, the break even point would be losing four games to injury. When you factor in the possibility of a catastrophic injury (career-ending or elite performance ending) the cost to a team's current play as well as creating a new need for the future along with enormous sunk cost resulting in roster inflexibility seems impossible to think that hustling all the time is beneficial.
Running out plays is a Cost / Benefit analysis
This last step is the most difficult one to take. I personally do not know how more likely a player is to be injured (or to become less effective) due to hustling. We can all agree there is a cost there, but I am not sure what that cost is. I am also sure we can agree that players should not fully hustle on every single play. It would be surprising to me to talk to someone who thinks a player should slide into the bag at the end of each play. It would simply make no sense because a player would be pointlessly increasing his chance of injury.
For me, a line drive straight at an infielder or a simple ground ball as occasions that would not make me demand a player to press his luck. I would prefer having his glove and his bat in the lineup instead of risking ineffectiveness by legging out a play that results in an out 98% of the time. I might be too conservative here. I don't think I am. To me, it seems like common sense. The problem is that hustling is risky for the team if the best players hustle. Their performance cannot be replaced and an extra ten runs a season is not worth a lot if there stands a small chance that a catastrophic injury might occur. It really is not about babying a player . . . it is about preserving your resources and employing them in a fashion to have the greatest chance of success.
One final thought, when I think of hustling I think of catchers and second basemen. These are rough and tumble positions. The career life span of players who play these positions are rather short. A career of getting bounced around at second base making the turn or getting hit by foul balls and barreling catchers at home results in a age curve where it is difficult to be a useful player past the age of 32. Although I have no proof that hustling causes similar effects, I think it is a reasonable position to assume that it does.
With that in mind, I must say: No, Mr. Jones, you do not have to run out every ball.
05 June 2011
Science of Baseball: June 5, 2011
 |
| Umps checking out a corked bat. |
Growth hormone and physical performance
Birzniece et al 2011. Trends Endocrin Metab 22:171-178
This review covers a great deal of territory we have covered before. The drug, hGH, is widely abused through sports due to a poor ability to detect this type of doping and as a result of uncertain effects. The science literature has found scant evidence of hGH helping improve athletic performance. It has been found not to affect muscle strength, power, or aerobic capacity. Ho's groups' own studies have observed that it does improve anaerobic capacity. However, his findings have not been duplicated (nor has anyone published anything attempting to duplicating them). This means there is a slim bit of hope that hGH might improve a baseball player's ability to sprint, but not much else. That improvement, if true, is likely to be largely ineffective. The effects they found could have ramifications in events for short distances in track and field, but would wind up being the difference of a half or a full step. As far as I am aware, there has not been a massive increase in infield singles in professional baseball.
Corked bats, juiced balls, and humidors: the physics of cheating in baseball.
Nathan et al. 2011. Am Ass. Phys. Teach. (pdf)
In this study, the researchers looked at how corking a bat affected how a ball traveled off a bat, compared how lively balls were between now and the 1970s, and to what degree a humidor affects the distance traveled by a baseball. They found that corked bats would result in a shorter distance traveled, but a faster bat speed. This reiterates what has been repeatedly found: corked bats help slap hitters, not home run hitters. With balls from different eras, they found essentially no difference between them. Studies focused on this question have run back and forth, it would be interesting to see a better done study on this with full characterizations of unused game balls over several eras. Finally, the ylooked into how humidors affect distance traveled. Unsurprisingly, they found that the use of a humidor can account for the decrease in home runs at Coors Field.
I think the first and third questions have been largely answered. I am not entirely pleased with how they answered the second question. I would have preferred a greater range of baseballs and a greater degree of characterization. Additionally, I would also like to see more information about how game used balls differ from unused ones.
Balance ability and athletic performance.
Hrysomallis 2011. Sports Med 41:221-232.
Previous studies have shown that in general, athletes of specific sports are less injury prone if they display better balance. In this study, they reviewed past articles on how balance could affect several skills in several sports. With respect to baseball, they reviewed a Marsh et al 2004 study. That study found that using several different balance metrics did not correlate to distance missed from a glove target when pitching. It is not an ideal study, but it certainly is an interesting question to pose an interesting way of answering it. Balance certainly predicts success with archers and sharpshooters. It might be good to expand this study beyond pitching accuracy to other aspects of the game (i.e. defense, contact rate) or including mechanics into the balance equation for pitching accuracy.
Cup of jO's: Father's Day Contest
First things first, Mark Reynolds had a thrilling grand slam last night that made the difference in the game. It has felt like this season has had a major effect on power hitters. Mark Reynolds is scuttling along on pace to barely break 20 home runs where he 76 the previous two seasons combined. Adam Dunn is lost and gone. ARod's production has decreased. Albert Pujols is going through his worst season as a pro. Hanley Ramirez is doing his best 2011 Nick Markakis at the plate. However, home runs per game have decreased from 0.97 to only 0.93. Doubles have also decreased from 1.77 to only 1.73 per game. It does not appear that there is any power outage. Yes, it has decrease slightly, but it may just be a squirrelly year where we see a downturn by several players. Hopefully, Reynolds and Markakis start lighting the world on fire.
---
Father's Day Contest
I am pleased to announce that we are able to provide four (4) DVDs of Baltimore Orioles Vintage World Series with the help of A&E Entertainment and MLB Productions. Surprising to us, four DVDs do not cover out daily readership, which now numbers in the hundreds (Thank You). This means we need to have a contest to determine where these DVDs go.
More about the prize:
Good luck and we look forward to reading all of your stories on Camden Depot's Facebook page (you can access it from the Facebook inline on the left hand side of the screen).
---
The draft is soon approaching. Some things we will offer:
1. A few more draft pieces by me and Nick.
2. A co-hosting of a general MLB draft chat live on Monday with Diamondscape Scouting.
3. More specific draft chats focusing on the Orioles on Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday if everyone is diehard enough.
---
Father's Day Contest
I am pleased to announce that we are able to provide four (4) DVDs of Baltimore Orioles Vintage World Series with the help of A&E Entertainment and MLB Productions. Surprising to us, four DVDs do not cover out daily readership, which now numbers in the hundreds (Thank You). This means we need to have a contest to determine where these DVDs go.
All the glory and classic moments of the Orioles' World Series Championships from 1966 to 1983 are digitally preserved on this official DVD. Spanning three decades and three managers - Hank Bauer, Earl Weaver, and Joe Altobelli - the enduring, common trait of the Baltimore Orioles' success was stellar pitching, well-timed power, and peerless defense.
The arrival of Frank Robinson in 1966 catapulted the Orioles to their first Fall Classic. Baltimore's pitchers dominated, holding the Los Angeles Dodgers to just two runs for the entire four-game World Series. Four Octobers later, the Birds power hitting and fielding were on display. The rally-ending defense of Brooks Robinson and the club's 10 home runs in five games helped the O's to a second championship. In 1983, the familiar formula and a familiar face held an encore. The Orioles' staff, including Jim Palmer who provided a bridge to the 1966 victors, stifled the Philadelphia Phillies, allowing only seven runs in five games.To enter, like us on Facebook and post on our wall about a memory you cherish where a father or father figure (you can be the father figure, it can be an Uncle, neighbor, Grandfather, etc.) took a child to a baseball game. We did not have anything to give away on mother's day, so moms are certainly welcome here as well. There are not many rules . . . PG-rated stories only, at least as long as a haiku and try not to exceed three paragraphs. On Father's Day, we will highlight the stories randomly chosen on the blog and will then start getting information from the winners for the DVDs to be mailed directly to them.
Good luck and we look forward to reading all of your stories on Camden Depot's Facebook page (you can access it from the Facebook inline on the left hand side of the screen).
---
The draft is soon approaching. Some things we will offer:
1. A few more draft pieces by me and Nick.
2. A co-hosting of a general MLB draft chat live on Monday with Diamondscape Scouting.
3. More specific draft chats focusing on the Orioles on Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday if everyone is diehard enough.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)