Well . . . the numbers are all moving on up for the season ending number of wins. We are about a quarter of the way through the season and our odds stand at 1:147 (PECOTA) and 1:8 (ELO) for making the playoffs. The disparity is due to PECOTA's adherence to the season beginning predictions and ELO's use of a ranking system. The teams we have faced have a .503 winning percentage, so that explains the numbers being reported.
A quick run through:
PECOTA is the PECOTA based model.
ELO is the ranking based model.
Crawdaddy is the model I created originally based on ZiPS, but now based on 2008 PrOPS and xFIP.
Pythagorean Win Expectancy Model is kind of self explanatory.
Actual wins is also self explanatory.
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