22 May 2008
Link of the Day
Posted by Jon Shepherd
As you have noticed, the Link of the Day feature comes and goes. Today though, I think we have a decent one. As a primer to Stotle's eventual draft write-ups and his 5 round shadow draft . . . I'll send this link out. I linked to some of Alex Eisenberg's stuff before when it appeared on the Hardball Times. I found that he also has a website called Baseball Intellect and he is on Orioles Hangout as NoVaO. It should also be noted that Kiley McDaniel at SaberScouting has mused that he thinks Eisenberg makes sweeping statements on limited video footage. Kiley was a scout for three years or so and is now employed by some unmentioned baseball organization, which lets him travel around and watch a lot of amateur games in the Southeast. I don't know Alex's background. So, take this as you will. I do think Eisenberg's analysis is good and instructional. He also seems to do well backing up him insights with others who have viewed the players in question. Anyway, with all of that out of the way . . .
Eisenberg looks at Brian Matusz today. Everyone and their momma are predicting Matusz being selected by the Orioles with the 4th pick of the 2008 amateur draft on June 5th. It will probably happen since everyone last year was having us take Ross Detwiler with our pick. Oh, wait, that didn't happen. I have little clue as to what will happen and that is why we have Stotle lurking around.
The basic run down on Matusz, which I agree with (if that means anything), is that he is a projectable lefty starter. That probably means that he has about a 50 or 60% chance to playing several years in the majors as a starter (1st round pitchers typically have a 1 in 3 chance of going to the big leagues). His most likely destination is league average or slightly above league average. It seems doubtful he will become a top tier pitcher. Eisenberg thinks that we should go with the best player available and that would be a position player.
That seems to be the growing consensus that Matusz and Aaron Crow are probably in the 6-9 pick range in terms of talent. I think Jonathan Mayo and John Sickells both have them slotted there. It just does not seem to be a draft full of high end pitching.