The Orioles' Rule 5 Strategy Has Already Backfired

For reasons that have never adequately been explained, the Orioles decided to begin the 2018 season with three Rule 5 picks on the active roster. Those players are Anthony Santander, Pedro Araujo, and Nestor Cortes Jr.

Santander, a pick from the previous season, needs just 44 days on the active roster this season to fulfill his Rule 5 status. Afterward, the O's can keep him, and he can be optioned to the minor leagues. Santander isn't really a problem. He played well in the spring, and for a team that's desperate for help at the plate from the left side, he's an intriguing option. That the O's would like to keep him around makes sense. 

With the two pitchers, though, the questions start to mount. Of the two, it's a little easier to make the case for Araujo. Before this year, he'd only thrown two innings above Single-A, but he's posted high strikeout rates through all his stops. He has some control issues, but his pitches have good movement, and it's not hard to see him as a late-inning arm. With Zach Britton out until at least June, the O's needed one of those. 

Cortes is tougher to defend. He's a crafty lefty type who's found success in the minors, and he's thrown about 110 innings in Double- and Triple-A. That makes him more experienced than Araujo, and he can also start and pitch in long relief. But with a fastball that tops out in the upper-80s, he relies on pinpoint control. Not having watched Cortes much, I also expected to see a little more deception in his delivery. Instead, the first time I watched him, he reminded me of Vidal Nuno.

I'm not a scout and I'm simplifying things above, but it still baffles me that the Orioles started the season with both Araujo and Cortes on the roster. There's also the minor question of whether the Orioles would have even tried to keep Cortes if he weren't left-handed. The O's are obsessed with having a left-handed option in long relief to back up the team's right-handed rotation.

When Britton is on his game, he transforms this bullpen, but there's still plenty of work to go around for relievers not named Brad Brach, Darren O'Day, and Mychal Givens. That's especially true when, one time through the rotation, Dylan Bundy is the only starter to pitch more than five innings. 

With one of Araujo and Cortes, it's possible to try and hide that player, Jason Garcia style, and attempt to use him in mainly low-leverage situations. But there's no way to do that with two Rule 5 options without exhausting the rest of the bullpen. They're going to have to pitch at inopportune times, like on the road in a close game against the defending World Series champions. Maybe that's what Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette wanted. That's scary.

It's also easy to criticize bullpen decisions from game to game. Showalter's bullpen mastery has taken a hit ever since the dreaded Britton/wild card debacle a couple years ago in Toronto, but he's still excellent at spreading the workload around and getting the most out of his relievers.

Here's one question I've seen: Why did Miguel Castro pitch in Monday's 6-1 loss instead of Araujo and Cortes? Araujo pitched on Saturday and Sunday, so he wasn't a possibility. Castro also entered the game on Monday when the O's were only down 4-0. That's hardly unreasonable. Showalter could have decided to bring in O'Day or someone else after Givens, but, well, blame Givens for giving up the lead in the sixth. And again, it's not hard to see how this gets ridiculous and nitpicky in a hurry. There is such a fine line for success with this group of pitchers. The O's have only played five games and this is already a thing!

The Orioles are not cooperating, but they have a win-now roster. Next year, they could be in the position of (at the bare minimum) finding a new shortstop or third baseman, center fielder, and two late-game relievers. By all accounts, the Orioles are trying to win. And yet, not only has the team dropped payroll about 10%, but they are putting themselves in a position to use multiple players who aren't ready when every game counts. On a young, rebuilding team? Sure, put Araujo and Cortes on the roster and hope they show enough to stick. Maybe they'd find something when the stakes are lower. The timing for these decisions, though, never made sense, and the O's dropped payroll instead of adding a competent reliever to a group that could use one.

How long did the Orioles expect to get by while carrying two pitchers who have thrown about 112 combined innings above Single-A? Was the goal just to throw them into the fire early and see which one came out on top? They've each thrown 3 1/3 innings, and while Araujo and Cortes have had a nice moment or two, they've looked as inexperienced and unready as could be expected.

On a 1-4 team that's been outscored by 19 runs (worst in the majors), it's hardly fair to only point at Araujo and Cortes and get upset with their performances. But it's fair to question what the O's were thinking.