Well, if not Wieters, then who? If you believe Dan Connolly's sources, that player might be Nick Hundley:
The best fit, without a doubt, is Colorado’s Nick Hundley, who spent part of 2014 with the Orioles and performed well. Pitchers liked throwing to him, he got along well with Joseph and Wieters and he made a real connection with catching instructor John Russell.Ken Rosenthal later solidified the team's interest with this tweet:
The Orioles definitely have an interest in a reunion with Hundley, according to sources.
The easy joke (and one I made, because I like low-hanging fruit) is that the team viewing Hundley as Plan A is comical/worrisome. Now is always a great time to panic!Hundley, in view of one source, is #Orioles’ Plan A. Team’s interest in him first reported by @danconnolly2016.— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 21, 2016
Anyway, as I see it, here are the Orioles' catching options this offseason:
- Sign a catcher to a multiyear deal (Jason Castro, Alex Avila, maybe even Wieters, etc.)
- Ink Hundley or someone else to a one-year deal and give Chance Sisco more time
- Move ahead with Francisco Pena (or Audry Perez) in a backup role
- Begin the year with Sisco on the major league roster and give him the backup job
That last option almost certainly won't happen. The first one probably won't either, especially since there is strong competition for Castro's services. As a platoon bat with Joseph, Castro and Avila both make sense (Castro moreso). To his credit, Castro also rates well as a pitch framer, as does Joseph. Wieters and Avila do not, and neither does Hundley. There are a handful of other catchers out there, but most of them are not enticing options.
It's not hard to understand the clubhouse and familiarity aspect with Hundley. And we're talking about someone who is going to split duties with Joseph, not a full-time player. However, Joseph has never played in more than 100 games in any single season, so it's not like we're discussing an insignificant amount of work. Whoever the other catcher ends up being, he's going to play a lot. And anything more than a one-year deal for Hundley should be out of the question.
The second and third bullets above are most likely. And if you believe in Pena's pitch-framing abilities, then just going with him and Joseph wouldn't be the worst decision. Neither is very good with the bat, but having two guys who are good pitch framers, have strong throwing arms, and don't make a bunch of money would free up some room for the Orioles to do something else.
17 comments:
You write well, I enjoy reading your thoughts.
I don't like Dan's thoughts, however. I'm curious as to whether he even has any…
Hundley doesn't hit well enough to matter, and his defense is awful. He doesn't do anything well that a catcher is supposed to do, and what we need more than anything else is excellent defense behind the plate. Plus he will cost perhaps five times what Joseph and Pena would cost combined.
"A veteran presence" can't possibly be worth 5 million by itself.
Do you know what Dan's logic is in wanting to bring back an expensive piece( Matusz, Webb and Gonzalez were all dumped to save far less) that offers nothing that we need?
Pip I agree. I don't like the pitch frame stat. that's A. And B the Twins way overpaid for Castro. And I wouldn't want to be the guy that overpays for Hundley. His dad was a much better defensive catcher than Nick. Spend the money elsewhere unless you get him for under 3m a year.
Biggest nickname bust in Oriole history..."Switch-hitting Jesus!" What s the loser jingle on Price is Right? BEEP BEEP BA BEEEEEEWWWW!
All front offices use a framing metric.
How do you know what the umpires thought? Was he going to call a strike whether the catcher moved his glove or not? This is the stat or flavor of the month. It's in every other article this week. It's just like throwing out runners on stolen base attempts. You just don't know if that catcher caught a guy like Jimenez that ignores runners. These are stats that have a lot of variables. They are fun but.
Pitch framing is a skill, and it's something other teams value, as Jon noted. You don't have to like it or trust the complete accuracy of the numbers, but earning more strikes for your pitchers is something that matters.
They take pitcher, umpire, and batter into account. People do think of these things and we do have statistical measures. It also makes sense that these stats are repeatable year after year as players go team to team.
Again, front offices everywhere use some form of framing metric. You do see significant differences between catchers. To ignore it outright is to further divorce yourself from the baseball industry.
Matt, I agree that framing is important. But why does Dan ignore it? Hundley offers nothing except roughly average offense.
Why does Dan think he is worth bringing back?
Surely he's aware of framing value as well?
Pena and Joseph had offensive numbers similar to pitchers last year, if my memory serves me correctly. I don't blame him for feeling he can't go into the season with only those two guys as options.
The Orioles haven't signed Hundley yet. I would guess that's something Showalter is pushing more than Duquette, but I don't know. For now, it's a rumor.
Joseph's whole value is based on it. I do not think Dan ignores it completely.
I'm not being clear.
Why Hundley?
He offers nothing defensively and is very expensive.
Because there are only so many catchers and he's a league average hitter at the position. His offense is more of a selling point than his defense, even if it isn't a great one.
You have a stat that tells you whether an umpire "thought" a pitch was a ball or a strike based on a catcher creeping his glove back into the zone. I personally have been told some umpires don't appreciate that type of gamesmanship. It's hard enough.
That Jay deal is looking nice now right?
It is not that you have a stat for this or that specific thing. It is about knowing where the ball wound up and correlating that to pitcher, batter, catcher, and umpire. This kind of analysis is present in countless fields and, strangely, only lately applied to the billion dollar business of baseball.
"I always let my eyeballs be the litmus test for it. We take it all in, look at it. But it’s another way for people to sit up an ivory tower and think they can evaluate catchers. But there is a lot more to it than that.” Showalter today.
I had the opportunity in the mid 90's to spend some time with Renee Lacheman and John Boles. Dug up my notes and found this on catchers.
1. Physicality or overall athleticism - Can this young man catch potentially 125 games a year?
2. Demeanor- Is he a take charge leader? Or the type that develops trust which leads to confidence in him as a leader. No hot heads need apply. Part of this includes rapport with Umpire.
3. Preparation-Does this young man have the passion to be the first one in the clubhouse every day? To prepare for whom he is catching that day but possible relief options. Prepare mental notebook for each opposing batter daily.
4. Presentation- Overall presence behind the plate. How he handles Pitchers, calls game. Good steady target for our Pitchers and the Umpire. Does he appear to have a plan of attack? And can he in game adjust and maximize what is working well and minimize without eliminating pitches that aren’t that day.
5. 5-Tools
Things may be different because they don't use notebooks anymore. But I know baseball provides us many useful stats but not pitch framing. There is no way to quantify why an umpire calls a ball 3 " outside a strike in the 1st inning but calls same pitch a ball later all other variables considered.
You guys no stats better than I do by far. Not kidding here at all. But What sabre metric has been developed to score production using total at bats, hits, bb's and then compare to runs scored and RBI's?
I did Kim and Pearce
Kim 305ab, 128 Total bases, 58 runs+RBI's
Pearce 264ab, 130tb , 70 r+rbi.
I would think Kim would produce more with the amount of ab's he had.
What do you guys think? Am I way off base here?
Would it be close to wRC ?
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