BORAS (Position Players): 2017 Update

Eleven months ago, I published the first version of the model that bears a great acronym and a horrible name: BORAS (Ballplayer Observation-based Remuneration Assumption System).  What I found was that with only knowledge of age and performance over the past three years that it was able to be a front line predictor of salaries in comparison to experts and systems using crowd knowledge.  One more note, this model does not consider injury history at all. 

For this year, I updated the model by including the salaries from last year.  The model has shifted slightly.  Last year's model basically attached a 50% value to the most recent season, a 15% value to two seasons ago, and a 35% value for three seasons ago for the variables considered.  That has shifted slightly.  This year's version with last year's contracts added now put a greater emphasis on the most current year at around 55%, a slightly increase in year 2 at 19%, and a steep drop of year three to 26%.  This weighting suggests that front office may be moving toward placing greater value on more recent seasons than long term production, but, again, this shift is minor though significant.

Anyway, lets move on to the projected salaries.  I will split them up by position.  Let me know if you want other players and I will try to incorporate them in updates.

Catchers

		Age	Yrs	$
Matt	Wieters	31	2	20.2
Jason	Castro	30	2	20.4
Alex	Avila	30	2	19.8
Kurt	Suzuki	33	1	8.4
Wilson	Ramos	29	3	40.1

Catcher is a position that I think BORAS will have trouble with in that it does not consider pitch framing skills to a great extent.  Still, it is remarkable that a superb pitch framer like Castro is viewed on par with someone like Wieters.  It is also remarkable that Avila comes across at such a high salary when the feeling in the market is that he is a poor catcher.  I also imagine Wilson Ramos' injury will have a dampening impact on his deal.

First Base

		Age	Yrs	$
Edwin	Encarnacion	34	4	67.5
Logan	Morrison	29	2	16.7
Mitch	Moreland	31	1	8.1
Brandon	Moss	33	1	9.5
Adam	Lind	33	1	7.8
Mike	Napoli	35	1	9.7
Steve	Pearce	34	3	39.6

The first takeaway I see is that my gut thought Encarnacion would be looking at a greater payday.  As a solid four WAR player these past three years, I would have assumed he is looking at something more like 20 MM.  BORAS disagrees and sees a very good, but aging, player.  Another interesting contract is the projection of Morrison getting a multi-year deal.  Age may be a big factor here, but he has been quite underwhelming at first.  Finally, poor Steve Pearce and his arm injury.  Without the arm injury and with a competent September, Pearce could have been looking at putting up about 10 WAR total over the past three seasons.  Instead, I think he might become one of the biggest bargains.  It would not be the worst thing if the Orioles try to pencil him in as a DH/Jack-of-all-Trades player.

Rest of the Infield

		Age	Yrs	$
Neil	Walker	31	4	60.5
Chase	Utley	38	1	11.3
Erick	Aybar	33	2	21.5
Justin	Turner	32	5	96.7

I am grouping the rest of the infield simply because the pickings look slim.  So slim that I wonder if I remembered everyone.  Anyway, it should be interesting to see how the injury impacts Walker.  Utley resurrected himself a bit this year with decent defense and a passable bat.  Justin Turner went from being an extra on a MacPhail Orioles' squad years ago to perhaps the Jewel of the Offseason, according to BORAS.

Outfield

		Age	Yrs	$
Yeonis	Cespedes	31	4	69.8
Colby	Rasmus	30	2	23.2
Dexter	Fowler	31	4	64.3
Jose	Bautista	36	2	28.8
Jay	Bruce	30	1	7.2
Josh	Reddick	30	3	40.9
Mark	Trumbo	31	2	18.3
Pedro	Alvarez	30	1	8.3

BORAS thinks that Cespedes would be nuts to opt out of his deal.  Dexter Fowler's one season bet on himself has turned out monumentally well for him.  Jose Bautista's BORAS numbers seem awfully lower, but his rather unimpressive 2016 campaign makes it unlikely he will see the 100+ MM he was hoping for and completely unlikely for the 200+ MM he dreamed of.  Jay Bruce looks like his option will be turned down.

Trumbo.  Folks will look at all the home runs Trumbo hit.  They will likely look over his poor defense in right field and that his offense contributed little besides home runs.  The result is a rather middling player.  I think in the outfield or at designated hitter, a 2/18.3 deal makes complete sense to me.  However, I think Trumbo can actually play first base.  If you think Trumbo is a competent first baseman, like I think he is, then BORAS thinks he should see 3/39.5.  That will be the bet.  To the Orioles, Trumbo is not all that needed or exactly useful because first base is a taken position.  However, another club with a hole at first base should value him at a greater level.  The best play for the Orioles would be to offer the QO at around 18 MM with the belief that a team in dire need for a 1B will feel free to let go of their draft pick for Trumbo.

Alvarez.  Alvarez' value is quite minimal because he is restricted to DH.  There are claims that he has improved at first base, but it would be surprising to think he is anything more than poor there.  If someone actually thinks he can play there, then he is a 2/20 player.  Again though, the Orioles really do not have that as a need and would be better set with someone who can play a different position in a pinch.