16 August 2016

Cup of jO's: Zach Britton, Cy Young Award Winner?

A long time ago, Rob Neyer and Bill James came up with an equation to determine who would win the Cy Young Award.

Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB

The above is rather self explanatory except for VB, which is Victory Bonus.  An additional 12 points is given to a player whose team wins their division. It has worked pretty well over the years.
 
 
AL
RNK
NL
RNK
2011
Justin Verlander
1st
Clayton Kershaw
1st
2012
David Price
1st
R.A. Dickey
1st
2013
Max Scherzer
1st
Clayton Kershaw
1st
2014
Corey Kluber
1st
Clayton Kershaw
1st
2015
Dallas Keuchel
2nd
Jake Arrieta
1st

The only miss in the past five years was Dallas Keuchel who the system saw as coming in second place.  Pretty nifty.  As it stands, the Orioles have two players in the top four and it appears whichever team wins the AL East will be pushing someone over the top.

2016 Cy Young Predictor - AL
RKPLAYERTEAMCYPGGSIPERKSVSHOW-LERAVB
1J.A. HappTOR144.82323143.0471240016-32.9612
2Zach BrittonBAL144.252050.03593702-10.5412
3Rick PorcelloBOS130.52424158.0581290016-33.300
4Chris TillmanBAL130.42525151.0581260015-43.4612
5Aaron SanchezTOR127.22323152.1481270012-22.8412
6Cole HamelsTEX124.62424153.1491490012-42.8812
7Chris SaleCHW116.32323160.2591570114-63.300
8Corey KluberCLE114.22323157.0561560212-83.2112
9Steven WrightBOS111.72222146.2491230113-53.010
10Roberto OsunaTOR110.452052.111642602-11.8912

 The safe money is that the Cy Young Award will go to J.A. Happ, Rick Porcello, or Chris Tillman depending on who wins the AL East.  The dark  horse is Zach Britton simply because relief pitchers have a particularly difficult time winning this award and more recent voters will look at WAR calculations and disregard Britton entirely.

1 comment:

Rob said...

I could see Cole Hammels maybe making a late charge if the Rangers continue winning - more k's and a sub 3 ERA, which voters seem to like. Otherwise, might be Britton after all.