Extending Jonathan Schoop

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Extending Jonathan Schoop
by Joe Wantz

Jonathan Schoop was a popular breakout candidate for 2016, and for obvious reasons. Despite an injury that caused him to miss nearly half the season, he produced 15 home runs, a .279/.306/.482 slash line, and a 112 Weighted Runs Created Plus (WRC+) in 321 plate appearances. While making projections based on a half season’s work is a bit iffy, there was considerable optimism that Schoop could hit 25-30 home runs while playing solid defense at second base.

So far, however, Schoop’s 2016 results look considerably worse, with just an 89 WRC+ mark through his first 97 PA to go along with a 90 point dip in his OPS. That said, he has also increased his (admittedly awful) walk rate, cut his strikeout rate, has a career low BABIP that should improve, and is hitting the ball harder and more consistently than any other point in his career. Even though the surface stats don’t look like it so far, Schoop may still be on the way to a breakout campaign.

Let’s say for the sake of argument that Schoop does put up the big numbers a lot of people thought he would. ZIPS’s rest of season projections have Schoop hitting .258/.291/.440 with 16 more home runs and 1.4 WAR. This seems reasonable, but a bit low for a true breakout. So let’s say that Schoop finishes the season with something like a .260/.310/.450 line with 25 total home runs. Combined with solid defense, this would look like a +3 WAR season. I’m sure both the Orioles and Schoop would take that!

If he reaches those levels, Schoop would be headed into arbitration next season with a career total of 4.3 WAR or so with three years of service time and would be in line for a modest salary in arbitration. But what if the Orioles decided to give him a contract extension instead of going to arbitration? Certainly they would want to buy out at least one or two free agent seasons in addition to arbitration years, so Schoop would be in line for a four or five year deal.

In an interesting wrinkle, last week Schoop signed a deal with Fantex, Inc. according to MLB Trade Rumors. This contract will pay him $4.91M in exchange for 10 percent of his future earnings. Schoop is among the first wave of young MLB players to enter into this kind of accord, so it is not clear how or if it would impact his desire for an early extension. MLBTR posits that it is likely to have a chilling effect on long term extensions, primarily because it mitigates the necessity of securing a solid payday prior to arbitration and free agency. As such, the Orioles may not be able to sign Schoop to a bargain-level extension.

Still, let’s assume there is likely be some mutual interest in an extension. The chart below looks at second baseman who have received contract extensions since 2013, along with their total WAR through their contract year. I also included a “2016 value” column, which attempts to account for overall salary inflation by applying a 7% increase per year since the contract was signed.

Name	Contract Year	Years	Amount	2016 Value	Service Time	Age	WAR
DJ Lemahieu	2016	2	$7.8M	$7.8M	3	27	3.4
Logan Forsythe	2016	2	$10.2M	$10.2M	4	29	5.3
Dee Gordon	2016	5	$50M	$50M	3	28	9.7
Josh Harrison	2015	3	$24.5M	$26.2M	3	27	6.1
Brian Dozier	2015	4	$20M	$21.4M	2	28	6.8
Jedd Gyorko	2014	5	$35M	$40M	1	25	2.4
Jason Kipnis	2014	6	$52M	$60.3M	2	27	8.7
Matt Carpenter	2014	6	$52	$60.3M	2	28	8.3
Jose Altuve	2013	4	$12.5M	$15.1M	1	23	2.1

Note: Extension data from MLB Trade Rumors, WAR data from Fangraphs

This is, overall, a pretty impressive list. Gordon, Kipnis, Dozier, and Altuve are all top 10 second baseman overall. Carpenter was a second baseman when he signed his deal, though he has since played predominantly at third. Interestingly, the list skews older: the average age at the time of a contract extension is 27 years old. Schoop will play next season at age 25. Considering average peak performance years, Schoop is actually in a better place than most of these players even though he would lag behind the big names in terms of on field performance.

His closest comp in terms of skillset on this list would probably be Jedd Gyorko, though Schoop will have 900 more PA at the end of this season (assuming around 600 in 2016) than Gyorko had when he signed his contract extension. The Padres moved aggressively on Gyorko, who hit 23 homers in his rookie season, by rewarding him with a 5 year $35M contract. Since he signed the deal, however, he has hit just .232/.291/.378 with 30 home runs in 942 PA and was traded to the Cardinals this past off season for Jon Jay. This is clearly not the outcome the Padres would have wanted and it illustrates the bust potential of long-ish term extensions for mostly unproven players. Schoop has probably shown a bit more than Gyorko had when he signed his deal, especially in terms of playing time, but they are pretty similar players: they hit homers, they strike out, they don’t walk, and they play solid defense. That kind of player is valuable, especially at second base, but can also have a very low floor as Gyorko showed in 2014 and 2015.

So what would a Schoop contract extension look like? Gyorko should potentially serve as a cautionary tale. While 5/40 (Gyorko’s 2016 contract valuation) is not a huge contract by current standards, it is a significant investment if it doesn’t pan out. The Orioles also do not sign arbitration eligible players to extensions very often, with just 7 total since 2004. Of those, only Nick Markakis would have had as little service time as Schoop will after the season. Schoop’s youth, injury history, and boom or bust game may also scare the Orioles (a notoriously cautious organization) from making a long term commitment.

For the sake of argument, though, let’s say the Orioles were interested in a longer term investment in Schoop. The Gyorko deal seems like the absolute upper limit; Schoop has yet to truly establish himself, despite his obvious potential, and his game has notable shortcomings. I don’t think they would just want to buy out arbitration years given that it’s probably not terribly likely Schoop suddenly becomes Manny Machado, so all the 3 year or fewer extensions are out. In the end, I think they’d want to do something like what Minnesota did with Dozier, perhaps more like 4/30 with a team option (that would probably have to be significant in terms of dollars). For the Orioles, this would be a relatively low risk move that buys out arbitration years and potentially two free agency years of a player they clearly like and who has significant upside. For Schoop, it guards against injury or bad performance, potentially raises his arbitration year salaries, and sets him up for free agency by his age 30 season. Of course, with the Fantex earnings, Schoop may feel much less urgency to sign away free agency years.

Will this happen? History tells us it probably won’t. Something like 4/30 and an option makes sense on paper, but it’s a fairly low overall payday for a guy who was considered a big time breakout candidate and who could very well earn twice that in terms of value. The Orioles may be scared off by his injury history and inability to get on base, not to mention that the +3 WAR projection for this season is likely on the optimistic side. Still, all life is risk, and this seems like a pretty good one for both sides to take.