However, while those mock drafts serve a purpose of helping fans get better acquainted with draft eligible players (in addition to being very entertaining to read in my opinion), they can be extremely inaccurate, especially after the first couple of picks. That’s not a knock on any of the analysts who put these mock drafts together. They are the best there is at what they do and work really hard at putting together what can essentially be a fruitless exercise.
For the last two years I’ve looked at the accuracy of mock drafts compared to the player that was actually selected. In 2013, I only looked at the mock draft of Keith Law and ESPN’s draft simulator, which attempted to anticipate the remaining picks based on who had already been taken (it was the only year I’ve ever seen it, so it must not have been worth the effort). Last year I expanded to include mock drafts from MLB.com and Baseball America as well. The results the last two years haven’t been great, with the 2013 ESPN Draft Simulator performing the best with 36% accuracy (which is probably another reason why they didn’t bring it back).
Let’s take a look at how things unfolded this year for the first 30 picks.
|Click the picture to enlarge. Green shading indicates a correct selection|