It’s old news now (especially with the recent Suk-min Yoon
and Ubaldo Jimenez signings), but two weeks ago, the Orioles agreed to terms
with first baseman Matt LaPorta. While LaPorta has name recognition as a
former top prospect, what separates this signing from the majority of other
minor league Oriole signings reported this winter is the fact that LaPorta did
not receive an invite to spring training. That last piece of information alone probably
indicates there was not a lot of demand for LaPorta, and the team probably
isn’t expecting him to be a big contributor at the major league level.
Matt LaPorta is probably best known as the main player going
to the Cleveland Indians in the CC Sabathia trade during the summer of
2008. At the time, LaPorta was
considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and his minor league numbers
backed it up, as his career minor league triple slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) prior
to the trade was .293/.393/.609, reaching Double-A in the process. He was the quintessential “three true
outcome” hitter who would provide a lot of home runs, walks, and
strikeouts. Despite the potential for high
strikeouts, talent evaluators believed that if he made enough contact, his
power could make him a potential star.
ESPN’s Keith Law ranked LaPorta as the #37 prospect in 2008, and #27 in
2009, and said the following about him during his ’09 rankings:
“LaPorta's power is prodigious, and he gets very good extension through
the ball; he's strong enough to power the ball out the other way but can get
too pull-conscious. His swing is a little long, but he hasn't had trouble
making contact through Double-A, fanning in just 19 percent of his plate
appearances in pro ball.
To the extent that he continues that, he can be more than just a
three-true-outcomes player and would elevate himself from "above-average
regular" to "potential star."
In fact,
LaPorta’s minor league career mirrors that of another “three-true-outcome”
player the Orioles already have on their roster: Chris Davis. Compare and contrast their minor league
statistics. First for LaPorta…
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| Matt LaPorta Minor League Statistics |
…and now for
Davis.
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| Chris Davis Minor League Statistics |
Davis was
definitely the better hitter of the two, but LaPorta showed a better eye at the
plate, while also improving his strikeout rates as he moved to the upper levels
of the minors. Additionally, both
struggled during their initial taste of the major leagues. Prior to receiving regular playing time with
the Orioles in 2012, Davis had accumulated over 1,000 plate appearances in the
major leagues, and had not found any semblance of success. However in 2012 as we all know, Chris Davis
turned himself from a AAAA player to a productive major leaguer, and then took
it another step forward in 2013 by becoming a legitimate MVP candidate. Similar to pre-2012 Chris Davis, LaPorta has
yet to find success at the major league level, and currently finds himself with
just over 1,000 career major league plate appearances. His career triple slash line matches up
incredibly well with pre-2012 Chris Davis, so could Matt LaPorta be ready for a
similar breakout?
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| Chris Davis and Matt LaPorta Major League Slash Lines |
Looking at this
table may provide some hope for a breakout from LaPorta, but let’s not get
ahead of ourselves. First of all,
similar to their minor league numbers, LaPorta doesn’t possess the power that
Davis does. More importantly, as the
figure below shows, LaPorta has a huge hole at the plate that pitcher’s have
exploited during his brief time in the big leagues. See if you can find it…
Additionally, since LaPorta made his major league debut in
2009, he’s had a very troubling trend when it comes to his pitch selection and
plate discipline, which was once one of his greatest strengths.
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| Matt LaPorta Plate Discipline |
Each of those columns is trending very badly in the wrong
direction. As a former top prospect that
has yet to find any sort of success in the major leagues, it appears that
LaPorta has been pressing at the plate.
It’s possible that a change of scenery and a more patient approach stressed
by the Orioles’ instructors could benefit him this year, but with plate
discipline numbers that ugly, I wouldn’t bet on it.
If the Orioles can somehow work their magic on LaPorta the
way they worked their magic on Chris Davis, this signing will look like a
stroke of genius. However, since LaPorta
doesn’t add any extra value on the bases or in the field, he’ll have to really
hit this spring in order for the Orioles to even consider giving him a spot on
the 40-man roster, which already contains several players possessing the same
set of skills, many of whom have actually had some success at the major league
level. So while Baltimore could
potentially find themselves with another winning lottery ticket, it’s much more
likely that this signing was to provide the team with (hopefully) replacement
level depth.
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