The Orioles come out of the All-Star break today in a good
position to make the playoffs for the second consecutive year. They are 4.5 games out of first place, and
1.5 games out of the second wild card spot.
Unlike last year, their 53-43 record basically matches up with their
expected record based on run differential.
Add that to their 13-14 record in one run games, and there are no doubts
this year that the Orioles are a talented team.
Individually, there are Orioles playing above expectations and below
expectations. While Matt Wieters is an
Oriole currently hitting below his expectations, there are reasons to believe
that he’ll be more productive in the second half of the season.
Wieters has never really become an offensive star the way
that many had predicted while he was a prospect, but he’s been very valuable to
the organization as a league average hitter (career 100 OPS+ exactly), while
providing gold glove defense at a premium position. Offensively, Wieters has had a very
disappointing year, with his current slash line of .232/.291/.408 representing
career lows in the average and on base categories. His wOBA sits at .299, the first time in his
career that it has been below .300.
Despite the disappointing season to date, there is reason to
believe that Wieters will have increased success after the All-Star break. The most obvious and easiest thing to do is
to point to his BABIP, which is currently .246, well below his career
level of .286. Since his BB% and K% are
both around his career levels, he appears to be putting a similar percentage of
balls in play this year. However, the
balls he has put in play this year seem to be finding more gloves.
A low BABIP isn’t always the result of bad luck, and maybe
Wieters has been swinging at bad pitches, leading to weak contact and more
outs. This does not seem to be the
case though, as the table below shows.
As you can see, Wieters has been swinging at pitches outside
the strikezone at exactly his career rate. The table doesn’t show this, but his
2013 O-Swing% is actually about 2% points lower than it was in 2011 and
2012. While his plate discipline has not
really appeared to have changed compared to his career levels, his BABIP may be
suffering due to his increased O-Contact% (which is a career high), especially
if he’s putting those balls in play, instead of fouling them off.
According to his batted ball profile, the quality of
Wieters’ contact this year has changed, although maybe not in a bad way.
While his line drive rate is down from last year, it’s not
all that different from his career rate.
The main thing that sticks out is the increase in fly balls, compared
with his decrease in HR/FB%. This FB%
increase could also be suppressing his BABIP, as they’re less likely to become
hits, but an increase in fly balls for someone with his physical attributes and power isn’t necessarily
bad. If those fly balls aren’t finding
their way over the fence then that’s another story, and Wieters’ bad luck may
come into play the most with his HR/FB%.
As the figure above shows, Wieters has had several fly balls
that were close to being home runs, only to be caught near or at the wall for an
out. If the 9 fly outs along the
hypothetical wall (or passed it) would have made it over the wall, his triple
slash line increases to .260/.316/.524, which actually looks pretty good. Since turning all 9 of those fly outs into
home runs is maybe too optimistic (it is), let’s take a look at his triple
slash line would be if only 4 of those 9 fly outs would have made their way
over the fence. If that were the case,
his triple slash line would improve to .244/.301/.460, which brings us a little
closer to his career norms in average on OBP, and still puts him on pace for a career
high in slugging percentage.
With a little more luck, Matt Wieters could have a strong
second half to help the Orioles push their way to the playoffs. Dan
Szymborski’s Zips projection system over at Fangraphs tends to agree,
predicting that he’ll hit close to his career averages the rest of the season, doubling his year to date fWAR while playing in 28 fewer games. With several Orioles exceeding their
offensive expectations before the All-Star break, it’s important that Matt Wieters has a strong second
half at the plate, especially if one or more of those hitters regress.
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