Camden Depot's Orioles top 10: 6 through 10

I mentioned in a previous post that the prospect evaluation here at the Depot has undergone some changes with Nick Faleris' departure to Baseball Prospectus.  Briefly put, I am writing up each of these prospects, but the list was formed by averaging out the prospect lists of mine, Jeremy Strain, and Joe Reisel.  Last time, we reviewed the top five and this time we go through numbers six through 10.

No. 6 - CIF Nicky Delmonico
Ht/Wt - 6'2", 196
B/T - L/R
Age at 6/13 - 20y 11m
Drafted 6:4 by Baltimore in 2011
Prospect Grade - C+ (44)

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	G	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	19	Delmarva	SALL	A	95	393	22	0	11	8	1	47	73	.249	.351	.411

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Last year, Delmonico rated as our sixth prospect, but was viewed slightly more positively than he was graded this year.  What was good about 2012?  As a 19 year old in full season A ball, Delmonico certainly held his own in the batter's box making up for poor contact with a strong walk rate and a very promising display of power.  His .770 OPS was 12% greater than the league average when park factors are considered.  The optimist would note that his poor June numbers (.688 OPS) coincided with a knee injury while his numbers in May and July were greater than .800.  Regardless of your viewpoint on how to use those numbers, these numbers are excellent for a 19 year old in A ball.

My concern comes from two things: health and defense.  A back injury was a major reason why Delmonico dropped from a high round draft pick to the sixth round.  In his first professional season, he strained his knee.  As a rule, back and knee injuries cause me a great deal of concern.  This is particularly true for a player who is playing second base where they get torn up and blindsided while turning double plays.  The good news for Delmonico is that he really cannot play second and will be shifted off to first, third, or maybe even the outfield.  A catcher in high school, a second baseman in his first professional year, and now sitting on the hot corner.  The uncertainty in his defensive home hopefully gets resolved giving him more time to concentrate on his bat, which in the end is what will carry him to the show.  With that in mind, any struggle with the bat and he becomes minor league depth.

No. 7 - RHP Mike Wright
Ht/Wt - 6'5", 195
B/T - R/R
Age at 6/13 - 23y 6m
Drafted 3:4 by Baltimore in 2011
Prospect Grade - C+ (41)

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2011	21	Orioles	GULF	Rk	0	0	0.00	1	0	1.0	0	0	1	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.0
2011	21	Aberdeen	NYPL	A-	2	1	3.77	7	7	31.0	3	6	29	8.4	0.9	1.7	8.4
2011	21	Delmarva	SALL	A	1	1	10.54	4	1	13.2	3	4	12	13.8	2.0	2.6	7.9
2012	22	Frederick	CARL	A+	5	2	2.91	8	8	46.1	3	5	35	9.1	0.6	1.0	6.8
2012	22	Bowie	EL	AA	5	3	4.91	12	12	62.1	7	17	45	10.3	1.0	2.5	6.5

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

To me, Mike Wright is someone like Jim Johnson.  He is a pitcher who induces groundballs with an interesting breaking ball.  Wright has an interesting, flashy above average slider while Johnson has a curve.  Wright also throw a four seamer, a curve, and has a decent changeup.  With those pitches at his disposal, the team wants to bring Wright along as a starter.  He may struggle at times, like he did last year in Bowie, but he should be able to progress through the minors as a decent starting pitcher.

The trick for him would be to continue success with his two seam fastball.  As he moves up from level to level, his two seamer will have more difficulty in resulting in swing and misses as well as swing and poorly hit balls as batters are more capable of discerning when the sink will drop the ball below the strike zone.  My rule of thumb for groundball pitchers without any steady plus pitches is to force them to be successful at each level.  It is the same reason why I was hesitant about Zach Britton and Brad Bergesen being successful Major Leaguers.

Wright is a useful prospect.  With more consistency from his slider, he profiles as a solid middle reliever.  For now, he will likely begin in Bowie as a starting pitcher with Norfolk coming in 2014.

No. 8 - INF Adrian Marin
Ht/Wt - 5'10", 165
B/T - R/R
Age at 6/13 - 19y 3m
Drafted 3:4 by Baltimore in 2012
Prospect Grade - C+ (40)

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	G	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2012	18	Orioles	GULF	Rk	47	193	7	3	0	6	1	11	34	.287	.339	.360
2012	18	Delmarva	SALL	A	6	23	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	.286	.348	.286

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

I aggressively rate shortstop prospects, so that might be putting a bit of a shine on Marin for me.  It simply is incredibly difficult at this time to find solid options for shortstop.  With such scarcity, any potential shortstop carries good value for me.  Adding to Marin's worth has been positive comments that have been shared with me from two evaluators.  In the long run, I am not sure what his value as a shortstop is to the Orioles, but that is an issue to be dealt with a few years from now.  There is no reason to think about that right now.

So, Marin's value is tied to him being a shortstop because his bat is not going to carry him.  At times, he produces great velocity as the ball jumps off the bat.  Last year, that produced doubles and triples.  With a little more loft, they should turn into a few home runs, but it is unlikely though that the bat produces much more than a handful in any given year.  Again, that kind of player works if he sticks at shortstop.  If he has to shift to second or third, the bat will have to exceed expectations or he would need to become the best defensive second baseman or third baseman in the game.  Marin has the reflexes and speed to make up for an average arm as a shortstop. I would estimate he may be ready for the Majors in 2016 if everything works out.

No. 9 -RHP Clay Shrader
Ht/Wt - 5'11", 200
B/T - L/R
Age at 6/13 - 23y 2m
Drafted 10:3 by Baltimore in 2010
Prospect Grade - C (39)

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2010	20	Aberdeen	NYPL	A-	1	0	0.00	7	0	8.0	0	4	10	4.5	0.0	4.5	11.2
2010	20	Delmarva	SALL	A	0	1	6.75	3	0	4.0	0	2	6	9.0	0.0	4.5	13.5
2011	21	Delmarva	SALL	A	1	1	2.05	12	0	22.0	1	13	38	4.5	0.4	5.3	15.5
2011	21	Frederick	CARL	A+	1	1	1.12	15	0	24.0	1	19	35	3.0	0.4	7.1	13.1
2012	22	Frederick	CARL	A+	1	1	1.29	23	0	35.0	0	27	51	5.1	0.0	6.9	13.1
2012	22	Bowie	EL	AA	1	0	2.74	19	0	23.0	1	24	17	5.9	0.4	9.4	6.7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Schrader would have probably fallen off the this list if not for being somewhat championed by Joe Reisel.  Last year, the Depot had him at the nine slot as well, but with more hope than I currently have.  There certainly are things to like about him.  He has a plus mid 90s fastball that has a great deal of movement, resulting in swings and misses.  However, who knows where it will wind up?  As his walk totals suggest, Schrader struggles greatly with his command.  Additionally, he has a plus slider that breaks hard and is also a true swing and miss pitch.  Again, it dances around the strike zone as well.

His success will depend on how well he can gain control of his pitches.  Although it involves only 23 innings, one should expect his walk rate to increase and his strikeout rate to decrease as he moves up the ladder.  That expected outcome has largely followed him throughout his minor league career.  Advanced hitters will face will hold off against more pitches on the edge of the strike and force him to prove he has command of his pitches.  If he cannot cut his walk rate down from 7 batters per 9 innings, then he will need to retain a 13 or more strikeouts per 9 innings to be of any use.  That will be difficult.  Simply put, he is going to put a lot of baserunners on first and that usually is a bad thing.

No. 10 - OF Xavier Avery
Ht/Wt - 6'0", 190
B/T - L/L
Age at 6/13 - 23y 6m
Drafted 2:4 by Baltimore in 2010
Prospect Grade - C (39)

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	G	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
2008	18	Orioles	GULF	Rk	47	192	8	1	0	13	3	10	51	.280	.333	.337
2009	19	Delmarva	SALL	A	129	509	15	8	2	30	10	27	111	.262	.306	.340
2010	20	Frederick	CARL	A+	109	498	25	6	4	28	14	42	96	.280	.349	.389
2010	20	Bowie	EL	AA	27	120	6	0	3	10	0	7	34	.234	.288	.374
2011	21	Bowie	EL	AA	138	626	31	2	4	36	14	49	156	.259	.324	.343
2012	22	Norfolk	IL	AAA	102	458	13	5	8	22	7	51	106	.236	.330	.356

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Baltimore statistics:

Year	Age	G	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2012	22	32	107	6	1	1	6	3	11	23	.223	.305	.340	.645	76

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

There is certainly a certainty in the value of Xavier Avery.  He is now a 23 year old who profiles well as a defensive fourth outfielder with speed who could face a right handed pitcher of the bench.  He does not offer plus defense as his solid range with improving routes is balanced by a pretty dreadful arm.  It is important to remember that he has been able to hold his own at every step along the way even though he has been one of the youngest players at each level.

My hesitancy in valuing him more is that I cannot see what it is that he can become.  I do not see him adding much more in terms of power and his inability to hit left handed pitching severely limits his usefulness as a full time player.  The key for him will be to improve his contact rate.  If he can push it up to where he could bat .280 line at the MLB level, he could be a very valuable as it probably puts him as a .750 to .800 OPS hitter against righties.  That could work.  Again, though, I am not aware of a single other batter who has been able to perform at a MLB average level of performance after being a mid to low .200 batting average hitter with no power in the minors.  I do expect him to be offered many opportunities over the next 5-8 years to prove me wrong.

Others considered:
Branden Kline - RHP
Josh Hader - LHP
Henry Urrutia - OF
Hector Veloz - INF/OF
Glynn Davis - OF
Ty Kelly - INF