04 November 2012

Camden Depot's 2013 Offseason Plan

Perhaps to call this Camden Depot's Offseason Plan is a bit of a misnomer because other writers at the Depot may disagree with my assessment here.  I am sure any quibble will be expressed in the comments section.  Anyway, here we go...

The first thing I had to figure out was the payroll of the team.  That will often decide the moves a team can make.  I assumed that there would be no decrease from the 2012 payroll of 84MM.  I am further assuming that the success of the team enabled an increase in payroll of 10MM to 94MM.  I also assume that due to the Orioles short term of being a successful team that the payroll increase is a tentative increase.  Of course, that means I have to construct a team for 86MM because Brian Roberts holds up 10MM.

Trade Players
Mark Reynolds - it is uncertain if anyone is willing to give anything up for him if they have to go to arbitration, so it may well be that the team will have to release him.  This move should free up 8.9MM.
Jim Johnson - Johnson is not an elite closer and he stands to be awarded 6.9MM in arbitration.  With the bounty of success the pen has had this past year, there is surely a much cheaper option to send to the pen.  Johnson should be tradeable.
Robert Andino - Andino stands to earn 1.8MM in arbitration.  I decided that there were easier ways to find a useful backup infielder.  Ditto for Alexi Casilla who would also cost 1.8MM in arbitration.
Omar Quintanilla - Due to earn ~800k, there simply is no room for him on my team.
Steve Pearce - Also due ~800k, he just is not valuable enough to keep him on the squad.

Unaware of what these players will fetch in a trade, I will simply assume "prospects."  To construct a team, I will need to build the rest of the team through free agency.

Melky Cabrera (1 yr, 10 MM) - Melky is not as good as he was in 2012.  His slap sticking 346/390/516 line was fueled not by PEDs (as many choose to believe), but rather a .379 BABIP.  He has average defense from left field and should hit enough to be around a 3.5 WAR hitter.  With a one year deal, Melky can regain value and the Orioles may be able to spring a draft pick in 2014.

Jeff Keppinger (2 yr, 5 MM) - Keppinger should earn a 1 MM per year raise from his salary last year.  If properly deployed, he could earn 1.5 MM.  He can make due at second against southpaw starters with Alexi Casilla coming in as a late inning replacement.  Keppinger also provides standing depth at third and left field.

Ronny Cedeno (1 yr, 1.5 MM) - Cedeno is only slightly cheaper than Andino and Casilla.  However, he plays a decent second and hits righthanders better than either of them.  Used effectively as he was with the Mets last year, he could prove to be worth a half win or so.  This is not a flashy selection, but it does not have to be.

Joakim Soria (1 yr, 4 MM) - A short term deal with the potential to bring the total up to 7 MM should be enticing for Soria.  He did not pitch last year, but he should provide competition for the 5 slot in the rotation or fit smoothly in to the back end of the bullpen.  He represents a potential big value win here.

Ryu Hyun-jin (3 yr, 9 MM) - If the team can win the posting, the South Korean could provide another arm that could work at the back end of the rotation or as another lefty arm in the pen.

My loose projection has these moves placing the Orioles as an 89.6 win team on a 91.62MM club (+3 with Soria incentives

Salary WAR
C Matt Wieters 4.6 4.4
1 Chris Davis 3.3 2.1
2 Jeff Keppinger 2.5 1.5
3 Manny Machado 0.4 2.6
S JJ Hardy 7 2.8
L Melky Cabrera 10 3.5
C Adam Jones 8.5 3.5
R Nick Markakis 15 2.4
D Wilson Betemit 1.75 2
BC Taylor Teagarden 0.8 0.2
BI Ronny Cedeno 1.5 0.5
BO Nolan Reimold 1 0.7
BO Xavier Avery 0.48 0.2
S WeiYin Chen 3.57 2.5
S Jason Hammel 6.5 2.5
S Chris Tillman 0.48 2.5
S Miguel Gonzalez 0.48 1.5
S Joakim Soria 4 1
R Darren O'Day 2.2 1
R Troy Patton 0.8 0.8
R Tommy Hunter 1.8 1
R Brian Matusz 1 0.7
R Pedro Strop 0.48 0.5
R Jake Arrieta 0.48 0.8
R Ryu Hyun-Jin 3 0.8
DL Brian Roberts 10

91.62 89.6


Matt said...

When does the additional revenue from the new national TV deal kick in? I've read that that would provide an additional $15m or so to every club as well.

Jeremy Strain said...

Haha, I feel like that opening paragraph was aimed at me ;)

That's a lot of turnover from a playoff team for me, I'd probably tweak a little bit less, and would do a couple things differently, but nothing to quibble with on your take. It's a perfectly defensible option, just a little different from what mine would be.

I would probably save money in LF going with McLouth/Reimold, keep Reynolds at 1B, dump Q and Andino in favor of Casilla as my UTL guy. Sign a SS/3B to a minor league deal for Hardy injury insurance. Fontenot would be on my list of guys to bring in on a minor league deal. Something needs to be done with that lump of SP we have too, so I'd look to package JJ with one or two of them for a MAJOR upgrade instead of just a slight upgrade somewhere, but hard to speculate on trades.

Also might kick the tires to see if PHI would deal Utley in the last year of his deal. If he's healthy enough to play 2B, awesome, if not, you could move Davis to 1B and DH Utley. Lots of fluidity for this team though, hadn't really thought about it much before now.

Jeremy Strain said...

New TV revenue comes in next season (2014).

There is worry some teams will drive up prices on FA this season in anticipation of that money coming in. Could be some really crazy contracts doled out for guys that don't deserve it.

Camden said...

It would be too risky to ask Soria to convert to starting, especially after missing an entire season.
I have no problem with signing him to be in the bullpen, and let Arrieta, Britton and others compete for the spot in the rotation

Jon Shepherd said...

Ching - That is kind of the point. Arrieta, Matusz, Soria, and Hyun-Jin are all capable of being that fifth starter. Add Britton into that mix as well.

With the limited money, I am trying to find high ceilings and Soria has that. In lieu of that, he profiles as a good reliever.

Matt P said...

I expect Pierce to be offered a minor league contract. If he's willing to accept it, he'd be an excellent addition to the organization. We need guys who can hit lefties.

Obviously, if someone offers him a major league contract he's gone.

My plan would be to try and package two of our young pitchers (preferably not Bundy or Gausman) with a few other pieces and try to get either Hosmer or Butler from the Royals. If I can't make a deal with them, I look to see about Alonso from the Padres or Rizzo from the Cubs or Belt from the Giants. Not sure we can get two from this list but if so I won't complain.

Depending on what I can get for JJ maybe I trade him. I wonder whether the Marlins would be interested after their Heath Bell disaster. They may be happier to do that then try free agency again. If so, they'd be an excellent choice as they're known for overpaying for players and they need relievers. If I do, Soria is an excellent choice to replace him otherwise I look at Koji. Worse comes to worst, everyone gets promotions.

If I didn't get Butler, then I go after Pagan in free agency. Otherwise I resign McLouth. If I've completely struck out, I see about getting Reynolds. Casilla sticks instead of Andino.

I don't worry about the rotation.
I'm not getting an ace and I've got plenty of potential in the minors.