There has been some rumblings that maybe Buck Showalter may be the Orioles General Manager next year. I thought in light of that, it might be good to look at trades he made during his tenure with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers. At these two locations it has been said that he personally carried a lot of weight when dealing players and also in free agency. In Arizona, he was key also in stadium and uniform design. He supposedly got around. However, I just want to look at trades. My first run through of this is quite generic. I am merely comparing the career rWAR of each player from the moment of the trade until the end of said player's career.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1997
Mark Davis (-0.1 rWAR) to the Milwaukee Brewers for essentially nothing +0.1
Scott Winchester (-1.1) for Felix Rodriguez (6.2) +7.3
Matt Drews (minors), Gabe Alvarez (-0.8), and Joe Randa (16.8) for Travis Fryman (7.8) -8.2
Jesus Martinez (minors) for Devon White (5.3) +5.3
Chuck McElroy (2.0) for Harvey Pulliam (0) -2.0
Travis Fryman (7.8) and Tom Martin (-1.6) for Matt Williams (6.6) +0.4
Total = +2.9 rWAR
1998
Mike Bell (0.2) for Joe Lisio (minors) -0.2
Todd Erdos (-0.5) and Marty Janzen (0) for Andy Fox (-1.1) -0.6
Chris Jones (-0.6) for Ricky Pickett (-0.3) +0.3
Joe Lisio (minors) and Scott Brow (0) for Willie Banks (0.6) +0.6
Russ Springer (2.8) for Alan Embree (1.9) -0.9
Reid Cornelius (0.8) for Walt White (minors)
Willie Blair (-0.9) and Jorge Fabregas (-2.6) for Nelson Figueroa (1.4) and Bernard Gilkey (-1.0) +1.1
Hensley Muelens (0) for nothing 0
Jeff Suppan (15.0) for money -15.0
Alan Embree (1.8) for Dante Powell (-0.4) -2.2
Bob Wolcott (-0.2) for Bart Miadich (-0.1) +0.1
Felix Rodriguez (7.1) for Chris Van Rossum (minors) and Troy Brohan (0.0)
Karim Garcia (-0.8) for Luis Gonzalez (25.3) +26.1
Total = +9.3 WAR
1999
Paul Weichard (minors) and Jason Boyd (-1.8) for Tony Womack (2.1) +3.9
Ben Ford (-0.6) and Izzy Molina (0.0) for Darren Holmes (0.8) +1.4
Clint Sandowsky (-0.6) for John Frascatore (1.0) +1.6
Neil Weber (0) for Blake Mayo (minors) 0
Ron Calloway (-1.9) for John Pachot (minors) +1.9
Tony Batista (9.5) and John Frascatore (0.8) for Dan Plesac (2.2) -8.1
Abraham Nunez (-0.4), Vladimir Nunez (-1.1), and Brad Penny (21.4) for Matt Mantei (2.4) -17.5
Belvani Martinez (minors) for Lenny Harris (-0.8) -0.8
Dante Powell (0.1) for Luis Ordaz (-2.1) -2.2
Total = -19.8 WAR
2000
Josh McAfee (minors) for Brian Dallimore (0.4) +0.4
Lenny Harris (0) for Bill Pullsipher (-1.0) -1.0
Andy Fox (-0.4) for Danny Bautista (0.2) +0.6
Omar Daal (1.5), Nelson Figueroa (1.5), Travis Lee (4.4), and Vincente Padilla (9.4) for Curt Schilling (35.4) +18.6
Total = +18.6
In Summary
1997 - 2000
2.9 + 9.3 - 19.8 + 18.6 = 11.0 rWAR
In 2011 dollars, that rWAR is worth about 48 MM. It probably translates to an extra win per year, which is not bad. It certainly would fall within the realm of average to me, but we really do not have a population to compare this number with. My next effort will be to evaluate his Rangers years. Finally, I will use a different way to measure these trades by weighting the performance by year.
9 comments:
Buck was manager of the Rangers during 2 HORRIBLE trades before the 2006 season which were:
--- Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka
--- Alfonso Soriano for Brad Wilkerson and Armando Galaraga (pitched 8 innings for TEX and later traded for a career minor leaguer)
The problem with Showalter isn't specifics it is overall philosophy. I don't think he came here to hold prospects' hands and be patient a la Trembley.
The O's are kind of in a weird purgatory, not nearly good enough to make noise but unwilling to do what is needed for the long term by taking their lumps now to have a chance in 3 years.
I think the front office thinks they are better than they are. Certainly Wieters, Jones and Hardy are good enough complementary pieces to win a division eventually assuming you have a star somewhere on the team and fill other holes but the team ERA is by far the highest in baseball and that isn't something that can be fixed overnight. Unless the plan is to go crazy this offseaon and try to get Yu Darvish or another true #1 somewhere, plus get Fielder or another superstar hitter I don't see his tenure ending well. You can't put the same team on the field next year with a new non-elite 1B and DH and expect anyone to be excited. Britton and a healthy Matusz will help in the same way morphine will help an open wound but it doesn't solve the problem or stop the bleeding. NYY has an ace, Boston has two, Tampa has two and Toronto potentially has two. Unless the O's do what the Yankees did in the 2008 offseason, I don't understand the methodology. You are going to finish 30+ games out of first, don't tell me the same team next year is winning the wild card even with marginally improvement from younger players and better health.
Check your math on 1998. The final number is missing two trades.
Mark...feel free to add them on.
The pitching certainly killed the team his year. The hitting is definitely improved over last year, even with Scott returning to normal, but the other add-ons have all improved the team in some way offensively. The pitching sucks and shouldn't. Odds are the pitching will be better next year but the offense will be worse. Better to deal away a few strong players, then, as solid replacements are better to develop than buy. Buck may not want that, though.
Jon - Like Buck, I think just looking at raw numbers can be misleading. Schilling and Gonzalez were key members of the 2011 D'Backs' team that won the World Series, the former winning the first game of the Series and making a strong start in the fourth, while the latter had a big homer in Game One and the game-winning hit in Game Seven.
Based on that, I think Showalter deserves an above average grade for his Arizona trades.
Bret - Seriously, no one in the Orioles' front office is naive enough to think they have a good shot at Fielder next year. The Brewers are probably going to do everything they can to keep him, as he's an important part to them continuing to be a playoff contender...just don't see him going anywhere.
As for the O's, they already have their power hitter in Reynolds, who at very worst can be DH next year. I would like to see them take a shot at Darvish, however, and to that end hang on to Koji, so there will be a Japanese presence on the team.
Sorry, I should have been clearer: the math is wrong for 1998. The final number should be nearly 8 points lower.
Did you ever do Texas?
Oh, right. I need to do that don't I?
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