12 May 2010

Comparison of the Last Three Drafts

One of the problems with drafts is that it is always difficult to recognize how one year might different from the next. How does Bryce Harper compare to Stephen Strasburg? How does this year shape up with 2008? These are important questions to ask and devising some sort of answer helps us determine value by relating it to other experiences. Today's graphic does exactly that.

Stotle and I put our heads together and compared our notes over the past three years to determine our top 30 ranking for the past three drafts. The values placed on each player are the values they held on draft day or, in the case of the 2010 class, value they currently hold. This crosses out all of the 20/20 hindsight as he have all of our notes from these past three years. Also included in the table are valuations of each year's top 5 worth.

After the jump, the table, and some commentary.

From the table, you can see that the 2008 draft class had a number of elite talents (roughly the top ten of this rankings table). Not were considered in the class of Strasburg or Harper, but there was great value. It was the kind of draft that very much benefited teams outside of the first couple picks as a team would still be getting great talent, but at a slightly lower cost.

This was not the case last year where if you were outside of the first pick and were worried about Matzek's public stance on going to Oregon, you might cut your potential losses and draft a second tier talent. 2009 was a very top heavy draft. Strasburg's perceived value exceeds anything available in either the 2008 or 2010 drafts. The closer comparison is the 2010 draft, which appears to be 2009's weaker sister. Bryce Harper is a less valuable Stephen Strasburg. Jameson Taillon is a less valuable Tyler Matzek. 2010 though is clearly behind 2009 in talent in the first round. The 2009 season had a strong crop of second tier talent. This year not so much.

Be sure to click on the image below to make it larger.

The next draft posting will put this year's draft prospects' value against the accumulated value of those selected in the 2008 and 2009 draft.

No comments: