All of those with playoff dream have to wake up now. Although not much has changed in terms of the final tally of wins Baltimore is expected to earn, playoff odds have come crashing down. This is to be expected. As a season wears on, variability will decrease as far as projections go. So, the Odds as of today? PECOTA has us pegged as 1 in 16,863 chance to make it into the playoffs as a division champ or wildcard. ELO is kinder with a 1 in 1,941. Yeah . . . it is over for all intents and purposes. It should be kept in mind, though, that this year was quite successful. Markakis developed more. Huff found his groove. Scott showed he could play full time. Jones looks like he might squirrel himself into an All Star game or two. Roberts is still playing quite well. Millar, Mora, and Hernandez did not have their performances drive off a cliff. We found some good relief help in Johnson and Sherrill. Guthrie showed he is not a fluke. Wieters has positioned himself as the best prospect in baseball. Reimold and Snyder have somewhat reestablished themselves. Our minor league pitching looks to have progressed nicely. We managed to sell off Tejada and Bedard before the bottom dropped out on them. It has been a good year.
The truth is you never play to simply win. You play to win a championship. With that in mind, you either are running a championship level team or building one. Wins are not always the best way to measure future team success.
Without any more delay . . . he is the mid-August odds graph: