Can Mike Wright Put It All Together?

This is a guest post by Jakob Lucas. You can follow him on Twitter here. Note: This post was written before the O's signed Alex Cobb. There's good information in it, so we're still running it.

After traveling the Norfolk shuttle over the past three years, Mike Wright is out of minor league options. He is competing for the fifth starting spot with Nestor Cortes and Miguel Castro, but he could also start the season in the bullpen. With Chris Tillman's awful spring, it's possible that his spot is up for grabs, too.

The Orioles don't have a very talented rotation or depth to it. Wright told Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com that while his goal is to make the team, he feels he can contribute more as a starter than as a reliever. Wright has consistently put up good numbers in AAA, but that performance hasn't translated to the majors yet.

Across 144.1 innings in the major leagues, Wright has pitched to a 5.86/5.46/5.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. In his career, he has struggled against lefties, allowing a .328/.384/.578 line to them. He has pitched much better against righties, only allowing a .247/.332/.447 line. The consensus opinion was that he may be able to survive as a reliever, but he needs a new pitch to be able to pitch against lefties and succeed as a starter.

When Wright was first called up to the majors, he was a 4-seam pitcher, throwing a fastball 54.8% of the time. In 2015, he had 12 appearances, 9 of which were starts, and got busted up to the tune of a 6.04/6.13/5.70 ERA/FIP/xFIP. He returned to the majors in 2016, making 18 appearances (12 starts), producing an improved but still poor line of 5.79/5.30/5.29. His pitch mix was still dominated by the fastball, throwing it 47.3% of the time.

In 2017, Wright pitched exclusively as a multi-inning reliever, pitching 25 innings in 13 games. He reduced his fastball usage to an even split with his 2-seamer and slider. His ERA wasn’t pretty (5.76), but for the first time in the majors, he had good peripherals. A 25.7% strikeout rate and a 6.4% walk rate were good for a 4.72 FIP and 3.83 xFIP.

Pitch Info (Velocity) - Fangraphs

Season	FB% (4-seam)	SI% (2-seam)	CH%	SL%	CU%
2015	54.8 (94.8)	14.5 (92.5)	11.1 (81.3)	16.9 (84.0)	2.7 (77.1)
2016	47.3 (94.9)	22.9 (93.2)	8.0 (81.8)	18.5 (83.7)	3.5 (79.6)
2017	30.0 (94.1)	31.2 (93.1)	7.0 (85.5)	31.9 (86.5)	2.7 (78.9)

As Wright has moved away from the 4-seamer and towards the 2-seamer, his groundball rate has increased slightly, from 37.7% to 43.7%. The 2-seamer produces groundballs, which inversely means fewer flyballs. Groundballs are valued at a premium in Camden Yards, a hitter’s park. With his previous home run issues, groundballs are even more valuable.

Ghiroli also noted that Wright started throwing a new pitch in the minors in 2017, a cutter. He has continued throwing it this spring. In five games, he’s pitched 14.2 innings, struck out 9, walked 3, and given up 1 home run. A more diverse pitch mix is helpful, especially for a starter. There aren’t any starters who had a pitch usage similar to Wright’s in 2017. At this point, we do not know if his will be a successful pitch cocktail. That is not to say that he won’t succeed as a starter; there just isn’t a reliable starter comp at this point.

There are, however, some reliable reliever comps. If Wright continues with the cutter, he could be in the company of Pedro Strop, Roberto Osuna, Bud Norris, and Steven Okert. This group throws a fastball, cutter, sinker, and slider ~20-30% of the time. Okert has pitched 41 innings in the major leagues and has yet to separate himself from the pack. Strop has been a consistently good middle reliever throughout his career, but he only started to use a cutter last season. Osuna has established himself as the Blue Jays' closer in three major league seasons. Norris reestablished himself as a decent reliever after two lost seasons in 2015 and 2016.

Wright has similar velocity to the other pitchers, within ~1 mph. There haven’t been any reports of his velocity in spring training, but hopefully his cutter is a good 90+ mph pitch.

2017 Pitch Velocity - Fangraphs

Player	FAv	FCv	SIv	SLv
Mike Wright	94.1	N/A	93.1	86.5
Roberto Osuna	95.0	90.7	94.7	86.1
Pedro Strop	96.1	89.5	96.4	85.2
Bud Norris	94.4	90.2	94.6	85.3
Steven Okert	92.4	88.8	92.2	85.7

Wright pitches in the zone 45.6% of the time, which is in line with Osuna and Norris, at 43.7%. Osuna gets significantly more O-Sw% (38.2%) than Wright (29.5%) or Norris (29.9%). Wright falls behind Osuna and Norris in O-Con%, with 64.2% opposed to Osuna’s 49% and Norris’ 49.7%. Wright also has the lowest SwStr% of the trio. Wright and Norris look to be very similar, with the major difference being their O-Con%.

These are Wright’s numbers before adding a cutter. The rest of the pitchers in this group already throw one. Based on this data, rising up to Norris’ level doesn’t seem out of the question, and while becoming an elite closer like Osuna may not be probable, it is possible.

2017 Plate Discipline Data - Fangraphs

Player	O-Sw%	Z-Sw%	Sw%	O-Con%	Z-Con%	Con%	Zone%	SwStr%
Mike Wright	29.5%	65.3%	45.8%	64.2%	83.9%	77%	45.6%	10.6%
Roberto Osuna	38.2%	69.9%	52.1%	49.0%	81.6%	68.1%	43.7%	16.8%
Pedro Strop	32.7%	62.1%	45.2%	40.6%	82.5%	65.1%	65.1%	15.5%
Bud Norris	29.9%	66.9%	46.1%	49.7%	85.4%	72.3%	43.7%	12.5%
Steven Okert	28.2%	65.6%	48.6%	66.1%	83.5%	78.9%	54.5%	9.8%

Starting pitching is still the biggest need for the 2018 Orioles. But with the impending loss of Zach Britton and Brad Brach after 2018, and Darren O’Day after 2019, the bullpen is also running thin.

The above data shows us that there is precedence for Wright’s potential success as a reliever. But he has work to do.

Data via Fangraphs

Four Orioles Prospects with the 2016 Tides

Joe Reisel's Archives

During the 2016 season, ten of Baseball America's preseason top 30 Orioles' prospects played at least one game in Norfolk. I was able to see 52 Norfolk games last season, and so my observations and opinions of these prospects might be of interest. This article covers half the prospects; the other half will be covered in a subsequent article.

Chance Sisco, catcher (#4)

Chance Sisco wasn't promoted to Norfolk until after they had played all their home games, so I didn't see him play.

Trey Mancini, first base (#8)

How good is he? Will he have a major-league career? How does he compare to Christian Walker?

Accurately or not, I see at least superficial similarities between Mancini and Christian Walker. Both are right-handed hitting first basemen, drafted in a middle round out of college. Mancini is almost exactly one year younger than Walker. Walker shot to AA in his first full season, but Mancini did not get there until his second full season. Mancini has slightly out-performed Walker at AAA - a .770 OPS vs a .754 OPS.

It's important to remember that Norfolk's Harbor Park is a pitcher's park. It's especially hard on a player like Mancini, a right-handed hitter who's more of a line-drive hitter with a little power, rather than a true slugger. Mancini was also much better at Bowie than he was at Norfolk. Given that, I think his .770 OPS is a reasonable estimate of what he'll do in Baltimore, moving to a better hitting environment. His OBP will probably drop some but his SP will probably increase by about as much. Looking for players who hit about as well as I think Mancini would, the best comp I found was David Freese.

Freese is a better player than we might remember, given that he was a last-minute free agent signing last season. And if Mancini were a third baseman, he'd be a solid regular. But Mancini has only played first base, and he hasn't yet hit well enough to be show that he'd be a championship-quality  first baseman. He can still improve, although probably not dramatically.

I was struck by a couple of things about Mancini, but I'm not sure if my perception is accurate. I thought he was too aggressive in run-producing situations to the extent that I really wasn't expecting him to drive in the runs in key situations. He also struck out more than I expected. I'll be taking a more detailed look at his performance later in the off-season.

Is he good trade bait?

He's a right-handed hitting first baseman who hasn't yet shown himself to be a great hitter. He won't bring much back.

Mike Wright, pitcher (#10)

Can he be a major-league pitcher?

He's been terrible as a starter in the major leagues, and I suspect his chances of being a starter with the Orioles are gone. On the other hand, he's been effective the past two seasons at Norfolk, although last season his strikeout rate deteriorated while his walk rate improved.

Two things about Wright. First, I wonder if he has concentration problems. He generally hasn't pitched well when he's been given early run support. It could be that he lets up too much when he's given a lead. Second, he generally is more effective when he strikes out fewer batters. I suspect that the harder he throws, the more hittable his pitches become because they move less.

This pattern - general ineffectiveness in the major leagues and general effectiveness in the minor leagues - is that of Jake Arrieta. Arrieta had more periods of sustained major-league success than Wright has had, and I am in no way declaring that if Wright got to another team, he'd be another Jake Arrieta. I do think his chances for success will be higher if he gets in another organization.

Dariel Alvarez, right fielder (#13)

Is he a major-league player?

If you took his best offensive numbers out of his two AAA seasons - a .287 batting average, 38 doubles, 16 home runs - that's good enough to play regularly. Unfortunately, (1) he didn't put those numbers in the same season and (2) he doesn't walk, so his on-base percentage is low. And his defense, which was quite good in 2015, deteriorated in 2016, perhaps because he was discouraged. With all that, he probably won't win a major-league job but might get one if all other options fail.

He's a lot like Adonis Garcia of Atlanta - a Cuban expatriate who spent a few years in AAA before falling into a job as the Braves' 2016 third baseman. He didn't play well, but will probably keep his job because the Braves don't have anybody better ready. That's the best case for Alvarez - he gets a job filling a gaping hole on a bad team.

Could he be a bench player?

It's hard to see it. He doesn't hit well enough to be an offensive asset; he probably can't play center field except on an emergency basis. A bench outfielder, especially in the American League, either has to really hit or play center field passably. He'd probably be a little better than Nolan Reimold, if that's what you're hoping for.

Christian Walker, left fielder/first baseman (#14)

How's the conversion to the outfield going?

He's not yet ready to play the outfield in the major leagues.

I'm willing to give Walker a mulligan for much of 2016. His father died suddenly in mid-season; he missed several days to attend services and he obviously was distracted when he came back. He seemed to be improving until his father's death; after he came back, he regressed.

It's obvious that he's never going to be a good outfielder. He's slow, has trouble tracking the ball, and doesn't have a good arm. He does catch what he can get to - he just can't get to enough.

He's been remarkably consistent offensively in his 2+ years at Norfolk. He's a .260/.325/.430 hitter. I thought last year that Billy Butler was a reasonable comp for Walker, and I still think that. Walker probably wouldn't be quite as good a hitter as Butler, but he'd be a better defensive first baseman.

Orioles Again To Rely On Bounce-Backs, Hopes, And Wishes

Before the offseason even started, you could see it coming. Chris Davis was the team's top priority, and the Orioles (with Peter Angelos leading the charge) did everything to ensure his return. They should be commended for that, regardless of whether you think they spent too much money to bring him back. It was likely Davis or no other top free agent, and that does matter.

Still, the Orioles were not going to be able to take care of everything on their shopping list. And to be fair, that is usually the case. The Orioles don't spend enough as a mid-market team to go out and replenish their roster when players depart, and they combine that with having a disappointing farm system that is one of the worst in the majors. That makes it difficult to fill a well-rounded roster with cheap, cost-controlled players. (The Orioles have also had good teams recently, and while that's a positive, they've both dealt away some of their better prospects and dealt with injuries and haven't been able to restock their system.)

The O's have been active this offseason. They re-signed Davis and fought off the Nationals to keep Darren O'Day. They rightly extended the qualifying offer to Matt Wieters, who somewhat surprisingly accepted. They traded for Mark Trumbo and signed Hyun Soo Kim. And they've made a boatload of fringe roster moves in an effort to strike gold with one or two players. But that doesn't seem like enough. After those moves, the O's still may be the worst team in the American League East. And even if they aren't, they don't seem to be more than marginally better than any other team. Realistically, no flurry of moves would have done all that much to alter things. It's not like the Orioles were going to sign David Price, Zack Greinke, or Jason Heyward. They need to get better at developing players, in a hurry.

That brings us back to the apparent flaws of the current roster. The team's corner outfield options - Kim, Nolan Reimold, Dariel Alvarez, Joey Rickard, Henry Urrutia - leave a lot to be desired. Kim is a nice, low-risk signing, but he's unproven in the majors and can't be considered a sure thing. Trumbo needs to be included in that mix, but he's clearly a better option at designated hitter or to spell Davis at first base. Davis could also shift to right field some, but that's probably not what the Orioles have in mind after signing him for so much money. An actual corner outfielder, preferably one who is left-handed, would be a nice addition.

And then there's the starting rotation. Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Miguel Gonzalez are all locks to start the season in the rotation. That's hardly an inspiring group. Tillman was awful last season; Gausman has showed promise but the Orioles have refused to commit to keeping him in the major league rotation until now; Jimenez was improved last season but is hardly dependable; and Gonzalez finally buckled under the pressure of outpitching his FIP (and, you know, also dealt with elbow and shoulder injuries).

That's without mentioning the upcoming, riveting battle for fifth starter duties between Vance Worley, Mike Wright, and Tyler Wilson. Names such as Mat Latos, Kyle Lohse, Tim Lincecum, Aaron Harang, Alfredo Simon, and even Jeremy Guthrie and other AAAA starters are still out there. Maybe it's best to pursue that route and hope for the best. Or maybe the Orioles will make a trade.

There are still some talented players available on the free agent market, but some are tied to draft pick compensation (including Yovani Gallardo and Dexter Fowler). The Orioles seem set on holding on to their first-round draft pick. That probably has more to do with the money not being there for such signings; after all, the Orioles forfeited two draft picks to sign Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz just a couple years ago. And it's not like the Orioles hoard their draft picks anyway.

Right now, it seems pretty foolish that the O's weren't willing to be more flexible to sign Scott Kazmir. Not only was he not tied to draft pick compensation, but he would have filled the left-handed starter void left by Wei-Yin Chen. It's unclear whether the O's were scared off more by Kazmir's injury history or his pursuit of a contract with an opt-out, but he would have been a nice signing -- and could have been considered the team's best starting pitcher.

Teams want more good players. The Orioles aren't any different. Without much to fall back on in the minors, the O's don't have much room for error. They again need a Nate McLouth or Steve Pearce type player to surface, or at least get Miguel Gonzalez to pitch like he did from 2012-2014 or get J.J. Hardy or Tillman to somewhat return to form. (Buck Showalter has acknowledged as much, particularly about his starting pitchers, in some of his comments.) Those types of performances shouldn't be taken for granted, especially when the O's need them as much as they do. Maybe it doesn't lead to exciting offseasons, but the O's again seem like a .500 team that with the right push could again be in the playoff hunt. That's the best-case scenario for this team. The worst case? Maybe you should take a look at that rotation again.

The Camden Highball (Episode 12): Previewing the 2015 MLB Draft

This week Pat and Nate talk to Camden Depot alum Nick Faleris about the 2015 MLB draft and which players the Orioles may target with their first round pick (they have the 25th pick in the draft). You can follow Nick on twitter at @NickJFaleris

This week's musical guest is Mike Holden (who may or may not be Pat's brother).  The song is called "Take No Victims" off his EP, "Level".  You can find his music on his site, iTunes, and Spotify.  You can also follow him on twitter at @mikeholdenmusic.

Camden Highball (Episode 12): Previewing the 2015 MLB Draft

0:00 - Mike Holden - "Take No Victims"
3:33 - Introducing episode 12
5:17 - Nick Faleris joins the show
6:07 - Overall thoughts on the 2015 draft class
7:30 - Similarities between Brady Aiken/Mike Matuella and Jeff Hoffman?
12:38 - Orioles draft philosophy under Dan Duquette
14:24 - Players Orioles may be targeting with their pick
18:42 - Concern over Orioles pitching player development?
22:36 - Nick's thoughts on Mike Wright and Kevin Gausman
28:17 - Potentially available college and high school bats in the draft
37:26 - Nick's thoughts on the 2015 Orioles

The Camden Highball (Episode 11): Talkin' Bats with Juan Baret

Brian Matusz partakes in some "shenanigans"

This week, Pat and Nate talk to Juan Baret, the owner and operator of Baret Bats, which specializes in handcrafted custom made wood baseball bats.  We talk to him about his inspirations for beginning his business, the types of materials he uses, the Emerald Ash Borer, and more.  We also discuss the growing legend of Mike Wright and the shenanigans of Brian Matusz that will likely lead to his suspension.

As with our previous episode, we begin the podcast with a song by a local musician.  This week's show begins with "productivity" by Maryland artist p.zorito.  You can find his music on his Bandcamp website, and follow him on twitter at @diarrhea.

Camden Highball (Episode 11): Talkin' Bats with Juan Baret

0:00 - p.zorito - "productivity"
3:50 - Pat demonstrates his commitment to the podcast
6:04 - The amazing Mike Wright
14:15 - Brian Matusz prefers a high SPF for sun protection
20:00 - Juan Baret of Baret Bats joins the show
23:19 - Types of wood Juan uses to make bats
24:46 - Juan gives his thoughts on white ash and the Emerald Ash Borer
26:31 - Customizing Baret Bats
33:48 - Juan's thoughts on the AL East

The Cavalry - Six Starting Pitchers for the Orioles' Future

In an earlier piece, I looked at the six current members of the Orioles starting rotation and shared my opinion that, while five of them are good pitchers capable of contributing to a championship team, none are likely to be an ace that pulls a team to a pennant or are likely to win a postseason game on his own. In this article, I will look at six starting pitcher prospects in the Orioles system and share my opinion on how they might fit. Two are highly-touted former first-round draft picks whom many project as potential aces - Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey. Two are pitchers who have already reached AAA and therefore could pitch in the majors as soon as next season - Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson. And two are pitchers who have progressed through the minors and pitched at AA Bowie last season; they could possibly be ready in the second half of 2015 but 2016 is a more realistic possibility - Tim Berry and Zach Davies.

I have not personally seen Bundy, Harvey, or Berry pitch. I've seen Mike Wright once in 2013 at Bowie, once in 2013 at Norfolk, and nine times in 2014 at Norfolk. I've seen Tyler Wilson once in 2013 at Bowie (I saw one 2013 Bowie doubleheader; Wright pitched the first game and Wilson the second) and five times in 2014 at Norfolk. I've seen Zach Davies pitch once, in 2013 at Frederick.

The Future Aces - Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey

Of all the pitchers in the Orioles' farm system, two have been mentioned as potential future aces. Dylan Bundy has, according to Baseball America, been the Orioles #1 prospect for the past three seasons and remains their #1 prospect today. Bundy has also been among BA's top fifteen prospects in all of baseball for the past three seasons, peaking at #2 after 2012. Hunter Harvey was the Orioles #4 prospect after the 2013 season (behind Bundy, Kevin Gausman, and since-dealt Eduardo Rodriguez) and has moved up to #2 today. Although Baseball America hasn't released their top 100 prospects for 2015, both Bundy and Harvey are likely to be on the list. Bundy and Harvey do have the potential to be aces, but their chances to become aces have been reduced by injuries.

It is important to appreciate that 99% of all prospects who begin playing professional baseball as teenagers look worse after a couple of minor league seasons than they do when we first hear of them. Analysts and scouts haven't seen the weaknesses that can be exposed by a higher level of competition. Projected physical development either doesn't occur or occurs in a sub-optimal way. Players either get complacent with big money or discouraged by failure. It's a rare player - a Mike Trout or a Miguel Cabrera - who is every bit as good as we think they will be when they are first signed. So it's not a major disappointment that Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey appear less likely to be stars than they did two years ago.

Dylan Bundy was drafted #4 overall in the 2011 draft, out of high school. As most of us know, Bundy was considered to not only have premium stuff but also advanced pitching skills. He made his debut in 2012 and dominated both levels of Class A before "merely" pitching well in three Double-A starts. He even made a couple of appearances with the Orioles, and fans were looking forward to him being a key member of the 2013 staff, perhaps after a half season in the minor leagues.

Unfortunately, as we know, Bundy experienced elbow discomfort in spring training 2013; he elected to try rest and rehab before finally undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. He missed all of 2013 and most of 2014 recovering. When he pitched in 2014, he was dominant in 3 Summer Class A starts and so-so in 6 Advanced Class A starts.

While most prospect watchers still consider Dylan Bundy a top prospect, based on his amateur pedigree and 2012 season, the fact is that we have absolutely no idea what he will become. Some pitchers recover completely from Tommy John surgery; other recover partially; and still others don't recover at all. And there is really no way to predict who will recover and who won't. The biggest question I have is whether or not the way Bundy pitched before his surgery - what's generally called mechanics - will work with the post-surgery Bundy. He's dealing with two years - ten percent of his life - of changes and has to suddenly adapt to them. We won't know if he can become the ace the Orioles staff lacks until we see how he performs in 2015.

Hunter Harvey is further away; he was the Orioles #1 draft pick in 2013. He pitched very well in short-season ball after signing and began 2014 pitching brilliantly in Class A Delmarva. He leveled off but still was having a very good season until he suffered an injury in a late-July start. It was diagnosed as a strained flexor mass in his elbow. The Orioles have been monitoring his injury and so far rest and rehabilitation seem to be working; surgery hasn't yet been necessary. I have no reason to believe that surgery will be necessary except that more often than not surgery is required to heal elbow injuries.

Hunter Harvey is not as good a prospect as Dylan Bundy was at the same age and level. At age 19, in his first full season, Dylan Bundy pitched better than Hunter Harvey and did so at a higher level, even reaching the major leagues. Bundy was a once-in-a-decade talent; he's the only teenager to have pitched in the major leagues since 2006. Hunter Harvey pitched well, but every season there's a 19-year-old pitcher who does what he does - pitch well in Class A. Harvey's 2014 season was probably not the best 2014 by a teenaged pitcher in the South Atlantic League; 19-year-old Nationals farmhand Lucas Giolito was better.

In 2010 Arodys Vizcaino, aged 19, had a season comparable to Hunter Harvey's 2014. Vizcaino has battled injuries and now is trying to make it as a relief pitcher; he still has the chance to be a closer. In 2009, several teenaged pitchers had years not too different from Harvey - Jordan Lyles, Wilmer Font, Stolmy Pimentel. It's too early too completely write any of them off, but none project to be aces. Before that, things get more complicated because teams were less protective of teenaged pitchers and often allowed them to pitch more innings than Hunter Harvey. The point is not that Hunter Harvey won't be good; it's that he's a long way from the major leagues and we shouldn't expect him to be an ace, based on what he's done so far.

The Immediate Help - Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson

I've written before (here, and here) about Mike Wright. In brief, I thought Wright was very unlikely to have much of a big-league career because he lacked a put-away pitch. Wright's final seven 2014 starts were outstanding; he pitched 47 1/3 innings with a 0.95 ERA. But even then, he didn't pitch as well as his ERA - in those 47 1/3 innings he allowed 35 hits and had an 8-37 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Good numbers to be sure, but not as impressive as a 0.95 ERA. It should also be noted that among those two starts were back-to-back one-hitters against the Durham Bulls. So, basically, my opinion of Mike Wright hasn't changed much - his upside appears to be that of an innings eater at the back of the rotation, and probably one who won't last more than a couple of seasons.

Two points about Mike Wright are worth noting. He's been very durable, pitching more than 140 innings in each of the last two seasons. And he may have a problem with concentration - I've seen him pitch two games in which he was given a large early lead (7-0 after 1, 6-0 after two) and in each game he gave it back and his team lost. 

I also wrote about Tyler Wilson and felt that his upside was similar to Mike Wright's - back of the rotation starter. Wilson doesn't have great stuff, but he was effective because he commands it so well. While most pitchers who have great command of ordinary stuff don't develop into consistent major league pitchers, there are exceptions such as Doug Fister. Wilson seems to be an intelligent young man who knows his limits, and I can see him becoming a contributor to a championship team.

Both Wright and Wilson give the Orioles flexibility to trade one of their current starting pitchers, say Miguel Gonzalez or Bud Norris. While I think both Wright and Wilson need another couple of months at Norfolk to finish their development, it's easy to see either of them starting the year in the Baltimore rotation if they impress in spring training.

The Next Tier - Tim Berry and Zach Davies

While neither Tim Berry nor Zach Davies have the draft pedigree or the hype of Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey, both have progressed consistently through the Orioles system and are close to being ready for the major-league rotation. Berry, the only left-handed pitcher among the six discussed in this article, was signed to a six-figure bonus as a 50th-round draft pick on 2009. He underwent Tommy John surgery after signing and didn't really pitch until 2011. He struggled in 2011; he then regained his control in 2012 and for the last three seasons has been consistently around 2.7 walks and 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He's maintained his results as he's moved up the organizational ladder, pitching at Advanced Class A Frederick in 2013 and AA Bowie in 2014. He's been solid rather than spectacular.

So far, Tim Berry has pitched in the minor leagues with similar BB/9, K/9. and H/9 ratios as Zach Britton had in the minor leagues and Wei-Yin Chen has in the major leagues. Berry turns 24 in March and will likely pitch in AAA Norfolk. Berry would benefit from a full 2015 in the Norfolk rotation; with Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson the Orioles should be able to do so. I can see Berry replacing Chen in the Orioles 2016 rotation if Chen goes elsewhere as a free agent.

Zach Davies, like Tim Berry, was a late-round draft pick signed to a six-figure bonues. When I saw him  pitch for Frederick in 2013, I was unimpressed. He was a slightly-built righthander who relied on control to get batters out. Pitchers with that profile typically don't succeed at higher levels. But in 2014 Davies improved at AA. His strikeout rate increased from 8 to 9 strikeouts per nine innings. More interestingly, his walk rate increased slightly, which in his case is a good sign - he was getting his increased strikeouts with improved stuff, rather than tricking less experienced hitters. Despite that, most scouts don't project Davies to improve his fastball, and so he doesn't project to be an ace but rather as a potential middle-to-back-of-the rotation starting pitcher.

In summary, the Orioles look to be well equipped to continue the success they've enjoyed in the last three seasons with their starting pitchers. Not all six of these pitchers will develop as we hope, but the Orioles have four advanced pitchers with success at higher levels and two prospects with top-of-the-rotation potential but some question marks. There's no reason to expect the Orioles to struggle because the starting pitching falls apart.

Two Looks at Tyler Wilson

Tyler Wilson was promoted to Norfolk in July. Photo courtesy of Christopher McCain / Norfolk Tides.

The Norfolk Tides were one of the worst teams in the AAA International League for the first three months of the 2014 season. And not only did they have a bad record, they were virtually devoid of interesting players. Caleb Joseph was worth looking at as a late-blooming right-handed bat-on-the-bench until he was promoted to the Orioles when Matt Wieters got injured; I was curious to see how Henry Urrutia would perform in his second U.S. season until he was diagnosed with a sports hernia. But other than those two, the only players who weren't retreads or career minor-leaguers were starting pitchers Mike Wright and Suk-Min Yoon, both of whom I quickly lost interest in seeing because they were - I think I can safely say this - generally ineffective.

So I was eager to see right-handed starting pitcher Tyler Wilson when he was promoted from Bowie. While Wilson wasn't a highly-regarded prospect - he didn't make Baseball America's list of the top thirty Orioles prospects - he at least was a prospect. And, I had marked him as someone to watch after I had seen him pitch effectively in a 2013 Bowie start.

I missed Wilson's AAA debut on July 3 but was fortunate enough to work his next two starts, on July 8 vs. Durham and July 13 vs. Gwinnett. In both games he pitched fairly effectively and was credited with a win:

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	GS
July 8	7	10	4	4	0	3	44
July 13	7	5	1	0	2	6	69

Watching him, he was pretty much the pitcher I was expected - a pitcher with good control and less than great stuff. A more detailed look at his pitch results confirms my impression - he lacked swing-and-miss stuff:

	July 8	July 13
Ball	26	34
Called Strike	16	20
Swinging Strike	5	8
Foul	16	18
In-Play	25	19
Other	0	1 (HB)

Fortunately, Wilson was able to compensate for his lack of a dominant pitch by generally staying ahead of hitters. The table below shows the number of pitches he threw at each possible count:

	July 8	July 13
0-0	28	28
1-0	9	11
0-1	12	13
2-0	1	3
1-1	11	8
0-2	8	13
3-0	1	1
2-1	2	4
1-2	5	9
3-1	1	0
2-2	8	8
3-2	3	2

Wilson has been successful at avoiding the 2-0, 3-0, and 3-1 counts at which hitters can look for pitches on which to tee off. And when you combine this information with the low number of swing-and-miss strikes, it's clear that batters aren't swinging wildly at pitches out of the strike zone. That means that Wilson is consistently in or near the strike zone, generating called strikes and foul balls.

Tyler Wilson seems to be in the third tier of Orioles' pitching prospects. He doesn't have the top-of-the-rotation potential of a Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, or Hunter Harvey. He doesn't have the combination of projection and performance of a Tim Berry or Zach Davies. His current ability is similar to Davies' but, being older, he has a higher floor but lower ceiling. While it's hard to know exactly what the Orioles' future starting rotation will look like, Wilson probably won't get a shot as a starter unless the wheels fall off; and, he doesn't have much trade appeal. In background and performance to this point, he reminds me of Jason Berken, who produced one good season as a middle reliever among years as a rotation anchor for AAA teams.

Final note: I didn't get to see Wilson's start on July 21, in which he was outstanding - he allowed two hits and struck out eight in seven innings. If I had seen that start, I might have a more positive opinion - but I didn't.

A Trade for Martin Prado Solves a Present and Future Problem

Since the calendar has turned to July, Camden Depot has looked at several ways the Orioles could improve through the trade market, including the starting rotation, which has needed an upgrade for a couple of seasons now.  Similarly, second base has been a position that has needed an upgrade since the peak Brian Roberts years, which ended after the 2009 season.  In 2014, Jonathan Schoop, Ryan Flaherty, Jemile Weeks, and Steve Lombardozzi have manned the keystone for Baltimore, with Schoop taking the majority of the playing time appearing at second base in 80 games.  Collectively, they’ve been about replacement level (0.1 fWAR), thanks primarily to their defense, since each of them have been a well below average hitter in the first half.  As mentioned above, Schoop has played the most at second base, and has been 40% worse than the average major league hitter (60 wRC+).  For a team that is currently in the driver’s seat of the AL East and likely to contend for a playoff spot, they need to get more production out of the position.

Luckily for the Orioles, there are a lot of second base options out on the trade market this year, which would drive the theoretical price of acquiring one down.  However, there are also a lot of contenders that need help at second base, which drives that same theoretical price back up.  Consider the fact that the Athletics, Yankees, and Marlins all rank lower in second base fWAR than the Orioles, in addition to the Braves, Indians, Cardinals, Giants, and Royals who are all above the Orioles, but still located in the bottom half of the rankings.  Now, all these teams won’t make a move at the deadline for a second baseman, but they’re definitely in the market for one.

As I stated above, there are plenty of second baseman available, including (in order of highest fWAR at the break) Chase Utley (3.1), Ben Zobrist (2.8), Daniel Murphy (2.5), Emilio Bonifacio (1.1), and Aaron Hill (-0.6).  It’s unclear whether the Phillies will trade Utley, though I’d bet against it (and if they do I’ll have to repost last year’s Ode to Utley with updated statistics) and Baltimore would likely have to pay the dreaded intra-division premium for Zobrist, ruling those two out.  Unless you COMPLETELY missed the title of this post, I would propose trading for a second baseman that isn’t even on this list, because he’s only played at second base for a total of 35 innings in 2014.  That player is Martin Prado.

Prado has played all over the field in his professional career, logging innings at every position except for centerfield and catcher.  According to advanced defensive metrics, Prado is an above average defender at every position he’s played except for second base.  Over almost 2,000 innings at the keystone, he’s been worth -6 Defensive Runs Saved, slightly below average.  With the bat, he’s an extreme contact hitter who doesn’t strike out much, walk much, or hit for much power, so his ability to get on base is dependent on his batting average.  Batting average can sometimes be finicky, but with a career triple slash of .291/.340/.425 (AVG/OBP/SLG) in nearly 4,000 PA’s, you pretty much know what you’re going to get out of him.

While Prado is having a down year (.274/.320/.367) despite a BABIP (.310) that is nearly his career value, his 89 wRC+ in 2014 is much better than any other Baltimore option*.  Not counting Jemile Weeks, who only has 13 PA’s, Ryan Flaherty is the closest with a 78 wRC+.  It’s true that both Schoop and Flaherty have been above average defenders this year.  So while Baltimore would lose a little bit defensively by sliding Prado in at second (a loss that is mitigated by the fact that the Orioles pitching staff does not give up many ground balls), you gain much more offensive production, especially if Prado returns to his career levels.  When adjusting for the same number of PA’s, the Zips projection system at Fangraphs sees Prado as being worth 0.5-0.6 wins more than either Schoop or Falherty the rest of the 2014 season.

*the decrease in production appears to be from an IFFB% of 14.1 (4.5% higher than career level) and a HR/FB% of 5.1 (2% lower than career level)

But wait, there’s more!  Following the 2014 season, Prado is under contract for two more years at $11 million per year, covering his age 31 and 32 year old seasons (i.e. he’s not that old).  After this season the Orioles could easily let J.J. Hardy become a free agent, move Manny Machado to shortstop, and slide Prado over to third base, which opens up second base for…Jonathan Schoop.  This is what makes a Prado acquisition so beneficial to Baltimore.  While the Orioles have several high upside pitchers in their farm system, there aren’t any position players who are close to helping the major league club.  Prado’s positional flexibility also allows Baltimore to offer Hardy a qualifying offer (if they want to), knowing that if he accepts it, Prado could move to potential openings in left or right field.

Last week, Jim Bowden of ESPN looked at Martin Prado in his “What Would it Take to Get…” series (ESPN Insider required and recommended).  He listed the Blue Jays and Giants as possible destinations.  He mentioned that a Toronto deal would likely be centered around CF prospect Dalton Pompey (plus a throw-in), while a Giants deal would likely need to include relief pitchers Heath Hembree and Steven Okert.  If that’s the case, maybe a Josh Hart and one of Mike Wright, Tim Berry, or Zach Davies may do the trick.  As a writer, proposing a trade is usually a terrible idea, but I think that package would at least have the Diamondbacks considering the proposal.

Adding Martin Prado in the middle of a playoff race will definitely help the Orioles, but it certainly won’t instill confidence in Jonathan Schoop.  Having said that, playoff opportunities don’t come around every year and the team needs to take advantage of this chance while they can.  Jonathan Schoop is still a big part of this team’s future, but Baltimore needs to upgrade second base for 2014.  A trade for Martin Prado will provide that upgrade in 2014, while also filling potential roster holes at third base or in the outfield in 2015 and 2016.