In Defense Of Moving Manny Machado To Shortstop

Buck Showalter finally announced at Orioles FanFest what seemed like an inevitability: that Manny Machado will start the 2018 season at shortstop. It isn't a secret that Machado wanted to play his preferred position, and he seemed more comfortable putting pressure on the Orioles to move over after the departure of mainstay J.J. Hardy.

Many fans are upset with Showalter's decision, believing he is making the O's worse and questioning the logic behind moving an excellent third baseman. But just because Machado is getting what he wants doesn't make it bad for the Orioles as a team. I generally don't like moving infielders around if it's not needed, but calling the move dumb or silly or stupid is simplistic.

There are at least a few sound reasons to play Machado at shortstop instead of third.

Shortstops get a lot more fielding chances than third basemen

If it's possible, a team should want its best infielder to play shortstop. Why? The number of fielding chances. The goal is to have the ball in the superior defender's hands as much as possible.

The ball is hit to shortstop much more than third:

Average top 5 SS in 2017: 690 chances
Average top 5 3B in 2017: 411 chances
Source: Baseball-Reference

What about the year before?

Average top 5 SS in 2016: 674 chances
Average top 5 3B in 2016: 440 chances
Source: Baseball-Reference

You get the idea; there's just more work for shortstops.

Not every third baseman can seamlessly move over to shortstop, and vice versa, but Machado seems to possess those qualities. He filled in for Hardy in 2015 and 2016 and posted a 5.4 UZR/150 and +2 DRS in 433 innings. Beckham, meanwhile, has a career UZR/150 of 2.7 and a DRS of -1. Machado doesn't seem to be a massive upgrade over Beckham at shortstop, but he is better.

(Keith Law's book Smart Baseball also has an interesting discussion of fielding chances and plays made/not made in his chapter that takes down fielding percentage.)

Machado's abilities at shortstop shouldn't be undervalued

Machado is not likely to be one of the top two or three defensive shortstops in the game, but that's hardly a knock against him. Only six qualified shortstops had a UZR/150 of 5.4 or above in 2017, and just 10 had a DRS of +2 or above.

The shortstop who can both hit and field well is rare. The league average shortstop had a wRC+ of 92 last year. It's wonderful to have a superstar, of course, but a superstar shortstop is even more special than a superstar third baseman.

It'll make Machado happy

The Orioles are not in the business of giving their players whatever they want. But if there's even the smallest possibility that Machado playing shortstop will lead to him playing better, that matters. Maybe there's some extra motivation, and perhaps some of that has to do with his next contract and next team. Or maybe some players simply play better when they're comfortable and in the position they want. I don't really buy those reasons, but I wouldn't completely rule them out either.

The O's need Machado to be at his best if they have any chance at all of competing for a playoff spot in 2018. Plus...

It could increase Machado's trade value

There's a chance the O's find out early on that Machado at shortstop just isn't going to work. He didn't play the position at all in 2017, and playing quality defense at shortstop at the major league level is difficult enough without having to wait for the chance to play there regularly.

Still, Machado is incredibly talented, and it's expected that he'll succeed in playing well at shortstop. That could give a team with an opening at shortstop even more motivation to trade for Machado before or at the trade deadline. Maybe another team just wants to see Machado play the position for a couple months.

The O's are looking for an incredible amount of value in any Machado trade. This is a small thing that could push a team to give up even more. Who knows? It only takes one team.

Beckham could increase his positional flexibility

Unless you're bullish on Tim Beckham in a way that almost no one else is, you see the value in having him defensively capable at another infield position. Like Machado, Beckham sees himself as a shortstop and prefers to play there. But while he's played over 1,450 innings at shortstop in the majors, he's also played 520 at second base. Meanwhile, he's played just 52 at third base.

By giving Beckham a chance at third base now, the O's can find out if he can provide value defensively. Maybe they'll simply opt to move him back to shortstop after Machado leaves, or maybe they'll find out his value as a utility player who can fill in adequately at second base, shortstop, and now third base. It's even possible that Beckham turns out to be an above average defender at third.

It may not be a huge benefit, but it'll be interesting to see how Beckham handles the challenges of a new position (especially if he keeps hitting while batting leadoff).

Machado will be gone soon anyway

Even if you're furious about the move, how much can it really matter? Machado is not going to be in Baltimore in 2019, and he could be traded at any moment. That's likely a big reason why the O's put off the announcement as long as possible.

Some fans are mad (not unusual), but I'm with the group in the "whatever" camp. At the end of the day, the O's will be a flawed team regardless of where Machado plays. Even if Machado were to stay at third base, the starting rotation will almost certainly be an enormous problem, along with the rest of the roster issues that have been discussed throughout the offseason.

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As things stand now, the O's don't look like they'll be very good in 2018. At least for a while, you get to enjoy watching a marvelous player like Machado handle a challenge, make wonderful plays, and turn some spectacular double plays with Jonathan Schoop. It'll also give you some extra time to talk yourself into a Beckham/Ryan Mountcastle left side of the infield.

The Real Tim Beckham

Tim Beckham, Photo via Keith Allison

Not to go all Charles Barkley on you, but just exactly who IS Tim Beckham? Post-hype sleeper breakout guy? Adequate big league shortstop? A guy who got hot for a month and is still the big draft bust he always was? The man who will play shortstop for the Baltimore Orioles in 2018? I think we can be somewhat safe in assuming that he is, at the least, probably that last one. The rest is a bit murkier, as is often the case with players like Tim Beckham.

Beckham was drafted number 1 in the 2008 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays, ahead of future MVP Buster Posey and future All Stars like Eric Hosmer and Gerrit Cole. Beckham was seen as an elite level athlete and was ranked as the number three prospect in the draft by Baseball America (who also ranked Pedro Alvarez and Brian Matusz one and two, so take that for what it's worth) , and as such it's not like the Rays went way out on a limb. Beckham projected as a five tool star in the big leagues, and given his age and position, the Rays made an easily defensible decision.

Fast forward to mid-2017, though, and the bloom was certainly off Beckham's rose. While he had finally become Tampa's starting shortstop and put up decent numbers in 2016, apparent attitude problems and other issues led the Rays to trade for Adeiny Hechevarria and thus to look to deal their former number 1 pick. Enter the Orioles, who saw J.J. Hardy's time in Baltimore running out and were in need of an upgrade at short to pursue their short lived playoff hopes. The Birds acquired Beckham at the trade deadline, and he immediately became Babe Ruth. In 132 plate appearances in August, Beckham hit a ridiculous .394/.417/.646 with 50 hits (second most hits in a month ever by an Oriole) and 6 homers, en route to nearly winning AL Player of the Month. This, it seemed, was the guy everyone had been waiting for. Matt Cassidy wrote a post looking at a possible extension and/or trade for Beckham in the off season, and he argued that while Beckham probably wasn't as good as he had shown in August, he also wasn't likely to totally crash and burn and that a long term deal could work out for both sides.

As Matt predicted, Beckham wasn't actually a .400+ hitter. Unfortunately, he's done worse than simply regress back to his career norms. Through September 18, Beckham was hitting just .183/.266/.394 in September with 4 homers. His defense has also left something to be desired, despite grading out fairly well in advanced metrics, committing 9 errors in a month and a half.

So, is this a slump or something more? Well, here's a few metrics for August and September. Try to figure out which month is the slump!

Month	K%	BB%	LD%	FB%	Hard Hit %	HR/FB
A	26.6	10.1	14.6	31.3	34	26.7
B	18.9	2.3	20.6	33.3	34.3	17.6

Kinda hard, right? In general, the numbers look pretty similar. What would explain the huge difference...oh, right, maybe BABIP.

Month	K%	BB%	LD%	FB%	Hard Hit %	HR/FB	BABIP
A	26.6	10.1	14.6	31.3	34	26.7	.196
B	18.9	2.3	20.6	33.3	34.3	17.6	.458

Obviously, month A is September and month B is August, but the biggest difference between the two months is that Beckham hit 250 points higher on balls in play in August than September. Now, he did have a higher line drive rate and lower K rate in August, but he has walked much more in September and has hit the ball just as hard. Now, we could look at this a few different ways. Either he got lucky in August, he got unlucky in September, or neither month is his true talent level. I'm gonna go with door number 3, here.

Beckham may very well be a late bloomer, but it was always very unlikely that he all of a sudden figured it all out and was becoming a superstar. By the same token, he certainly isn't the Paul Janish-esque player he's been so far in September. Beckham's 2016 numbers seem to a good approximation of his truth as a player: low walk, high K guy with some pop who can run a bit and hit the ball hard enough to put up an above average BABIP. Even in the September slump, the power he flashed in August has been maintained, and it's not at all unreasonable to view him as a 20-25 homer bat in a full season. With slightly more solid defense, that's a very valuable player.

It seems very likely that Beckham will be the starting shortstop for the O's in 2018. He's entering his first year of arbitration, but given that he has only had one full MLB season of at-bats, he will probably not be in line for a huge salary increase. Under those parameters, Beckham could be a very valuable player next season. A 2-3 win shortstop on a low money deal and under control through 2020 is a fine thing even if he isn't establishing himself as the player the Rays thought they were getting in 2008. It's not clear if the Orioles should invest real money in him or simply ride out his arbitration years, but it is clear that that the real Tim Beckham probably isn't a superstar. He might, however, be the shortstop of the future in Baltimore.

Looking Ahead: What Should the Orioles Do With Tim Beckham?

The O’s kicked off the week with an ugly loss, but the Slam it Like Beckham 2017 tour continues to chug along at a steady pace. 

The infielder again tapped into his power stroke, connecting in the bottom of the first for a home run measured at 376 feet.  The opposite-field blast extended his career high to 19, and marked his 7^th in 33 games with Baltimore.

It seems all Beckham has done is rake since he’s arrived.  He’s won over teammates and fans with his stellar play.  Likewise, Baltimore’s promo department wasted no time cashing in the hype (hence Monday’s t-shirt giveaway). 

So, has the first pick of the 2008 draft tapped into some fountain of potential?  Or is he riding an unsustainable wave of good fortune whose apex is bound to crash at any moment? 

The answer, as usual, probably lies somewhere in between.  The real question is, how does Mr. Beckham fit into the club’s long-term plans?

To me, there are two avenues that make sense: double down or cash out.  AKA, discuss the viability of a long term contract or explore the off-season trade market.

Option A: Double Down

Baseball contracts are like grains in a sieve, constantly shifting.  One thing’s for sure: if you’re sold on something, you should try your best to lock it down.  After all, yesterday’s overpay may turn out to be tomorrow’s bargain, when adjusted for salary inflation.

With that in mind, if the Orioles believe Tim Beckham is their guy, they should look to buy him out of his arbitration years.  It could be a three-year year deal with a club option totaling $25-30 million.

Beckham’s play, thus far, has been other-worldly.  His return ticket to planet Earth will be scheduled any day now.  Even in the event he completely regresses, however, the modest commitment wouldn’t be back-breaking to the organization.

What you’re buying into is the upside: that offensively he’s a poor man’s Jonathan Schoop with slightly better wheels.  That defensively he can hold down the fort at short, with the versatility to slide over to second or third in a pinch.  If he can do all that, he’ll be a bargain in that price range. 

So, what’s the incentive for the Beckham camp to willingly sign off on a deal that could leave millions on the table?  Well, they have access to the same regression models as everyone else.  They have to figure Beckham’s not going to hit .394 all season, as he did for the month of August.  Why not cash in and lock in multi-generational security for his family?  

Besides, the Orioles are paying J.J. Hardy’s cadaver $12.5 million.  I think they could scrape together some change from under the proverbial couch cushion to pay for Beckham.   

Option B: Cash Out

On the other hand, there may not be a better time for the Orioles to flip their new acquisition than this coming off-season.

With their most-recent impressions of Beckham being his second-half surge, opposing general managers will have to listen with at least feigned-interest should Baltimore come calling.  

And, if the interest is expressed the other way around, the Orioles can’t afford not to listen.  Their farm system lacks blue chippers at virtually every position.  Simply put, it needs massive work.  

In the meanwhile, they could sign a serviceable veteran to keep the fires warm until minor-leaguer Ryan Mountcastle proves he’s ready for the show.   

It’s highly doubtful this scenario would happen, mainly because the Orioles are philosophically-opposed to trading established players.  Also, Beckham seems to fit their idea of coveted player perfectly (low walk rate, average power, high K-percentage).  Still, it’s an avenue worth at least exploring.  

O's Offensive Resurgence Has Been A Group Effort

One strange thing about the season's first half for the Orioles is how mediocre the offense was. You expected the starting pitching to not be good, but the offense was far from great. At the all-star break, the Orioles ranked just 22nd in the major leagues in runs scored and were generally unimpressive offensively.

In the first half, really only Trey Mancini (135 wRC+) and Jonathan Schoop (131 wRC+) were overly productive. Caleb Joseph's 95 wRC+ stood out because it was a significant jump for him, but other than Mancini and Schoop, the only two regulars to post a wRC+ over 100 were Chris Davis (105) and Seth Smith (102). The rest ranged from average to below average (Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Welington Castillo) to not very good or bad (Joey Rickard, Hyun Soo Kim, J.J. Hardy).

To say that things have clicked in the second half, though, would be an understatement. While the starting pitching has also been better -- 5.75 ERA/5.31 FIP first half vs.  5.18 ERA/5.18 FIP -- the offense has been right near the top among all MLB teams. Since the break, the Orioles are second in runs scored (248), first in wRC+ (120), first in home runs (72), fourth in on-base percentage (.341), and first in slugging percentage (.493).

So what's changed? A .325 BABIP has helped (compared to .301 in the first half). Castillo (163 wRC+), Smith (148), Machado (144), Gentry (135), Schoop (133), Jones (131), and Mancini (116) have all been hitting extremely well. Even Davis, who has a wRC+ of just 102 on the season and has struggled mightily at times, is almost back over the 100 wRC+ mark in the second half. That only leaves Rickard (64 wRC+), who's in Triple-A Norfolk until rosters expand, and Trumbo (61 wRC+) as the only regulars who haven't hit well.

Oh, right. There's also been the small addition of Tim Beckham to help solidify the top of the O's lineup. Since joining the Orioles a month ago, Beckham has a wRC+ of 185 and has been worth nearly two wins above replacement. In the last 30 days, Beckham's 1.7 fWAR is tied with Machado for sixth-best in the majors. His wRC+ is seventh-best. No one could have predicted Beckham would play like this, and his performance has helped vault the Orioles back into serious playoff contenders.

To recap, in the first half, the O's had just four regulars with a wRC+ over 100. In the second half, they have eight. As with many things, the true talent of the O's offense is probably somewhere between both halves.

The bad news is that the offense might have to keep being this good or close if the O's are going to take the second wild card spot, thanks to inconsistent starting pitching. The good news, though, is that Beckham seems to be a real find for an inexpensive price, Machado is back to being Machado, Schoop seems to have taken a leap forward, and Mancini has hit better than many of his biggest supporters could have predicted. The future of the Orioles is uncertain, but at least there are a couple more things to get excited about.

Draft Preview -- Final War Room Review

Well, the Draft is finally upon us. Here is a summary of where we stand for the First Annual Camden Depot Shadow Draft for the Orioles, as well as some recommended links to use while you follow the draft. Though most will likely follow on MLB.com, ESPN or various message boards, please feel free to comment below as the day progresses. To the extent there are questions and/or comments, I'll be responding.

Now, onto our War Room.

Camden Depot Shadow War Room

Our Draft Board for 1:4 has changed a bit. Word came out last night that Buster Posey is looking for $12mio. While we believe we should take the best talent available, we can't justify paying twice the price for Posey that we paid for Wieters. Accordingly, he has dropped to sixth on our board. As it currently stands, we rank the players for 1:4 as follows:

1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Tim Beckham
3. Brian Matusz
4. Justin Smoak
5. Aaron Crow
6. Buster Posey
7. Gordon Beckham

Our current projection is that Tampa will be selecting Tim Beckham at 1:1 Pittsburgh will opt for Pedro Alvarez and Kansas City will be choosing between Eric Hosmer and Justin Smoak (Hosmer the likely selection).

After 1:4 has been selected, we will start updating our top 5 for 2:4.


Links for the Draft

Here are some good links to info as you follow the Draft:

- Great discussion regarding the Orioles's draft at the Orioles Hangout Draft Board
- Baseball America's Top 200 Player Chart
- Baseball America's Draft Page (Most Content for Members Only)
- MLB.com Draft Coverage
- MLB-Draft.com gives a run down of their projected first 50 picks and some solid info on the players.

Draft coverage will officially start at 1:30 EST for us. Enjoy the links and please check back in to see who we select at 1:4!

Draft Preview -- Finding 1:4 (Tim Beckham)

Introducing Tim Beckham

Baseball America's 2007 Youth Player of the Year has set himself apart as the top high school talent in the 2008 MLB Rule 4 Amateur Draft. After posting an impressive line his junior season as the Griffin High School shortstop (.512, 9 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 20 SB), Beckham solidified his place in the minds of scouts last summer, consistently showing himself to be the top talent in each event of the showcase circuit. While his draft stock dipped a bit during a relatively slow start to his senior year, he finished strong over the final weeks and has reestablished himself as a legit potential 1:1 and a shoo-in to go in the top 5.

As our first HS player examined, we should point out two things. First, high school stats don't tell a huge story. It's enough to see that they are impressive, but they shouldn't be used as a measuring stick against college players or other high school players -- the discrepancies in talent faced from draftee-to-draftee are too great. Second, Beckham is not an Upton (Alex Eisenberg does a good job breaking down the differences in their swings in an article for Baseball Digest Daily). Comparisons are made because he is an African American high school middle infielder being discussed as a number one overall pick, but his game is very different. No team should draft him expecting to get Justin or BJ (Beckham does not have the power or advanced offensive approach of either Upton and his is far superior in the field). With that Said, let's see if he would fit at 1:4.

The Numbers

Statistics

Senior Year:

At Bats – 78
Hits – 39
Doubles – 9
Triples – 3
Homeruns – 5
Runs Batted In – 31
Batting Average – .500
Slugging – .885
Total Bases – 69
Stolen Bases – 16

Summer Circuit:
At Bats – 132
Hits – 54
Doubles – 15
Triples – 8
Homeruns – 9
Runs Batted In – 38
Batting Average – .409
Slugging – .848
Total Bases – 112
Stolen Bases – 32

The summer circuit stats are particularly impressive, given that Beckham was consistently playing against the best talent in the country. He was able to hit for average, as well as power, and he was at the top of his running game. It would be fun to see what he could do in three seasons at Southern Cal, but it doesn't look like that will be in the cards.

The Frame

Beckham stands at a wiry 6'2" and 190 pounds. He has the frame of middle infielder. There is little chance that his body grows out of shortstop, making him the best bet of the top middle infield talents to stay at the six-spot.

Scouting: Film

Swing
Load – Beckham's hands are in good position and his elbow is at a solid 45 degree angle, paving the way for a very quick path to the ball. He is a little too heavy on his back foot, but is close enough to a 60/40 weight distribution that it doesn't cause any big issues in his swing, other than a slight tendency to hit off of his front foot.

Stride – The stride is moderate in length and smooth. His hands stay in a power-load position, locked to his body as he moves forward. Because he was a little heavy on his back foot in the load, there is more weight moving forward in the stride, which causes his front hip to occasionally open a little early. Again, this should be easily correctable and will be key in Beckham making the transition from a line-drive hitter to potentially an above-average power bat.

Swing – His swing is very quick, utilizing mostly the upper-half of his body. His wrists and upper body whip the bat through on a clean plane, and because his hand and arm position were each solid through the load and stride he has a short path to the pitch. He is a little early with his weight-transfer, losing a bit of power before he actually gets to contact. Against more advanced pitching, this might be a problem. Again, it should be an easily correctable flaw.

Contact – Despite an imperfect weight-transfer, Beckham squares-up on the ball consistently and sprays the ball to all fields. His superior hand-eye-coordination and short path to the ball make hitting come natural.

Follow-Through – Beckham's follow-through is clean, though he spins-off a bit. This is likely because his upper body has too much momentum in comparison to his lower body at this point in the swing. Rather than flowing from hips to elbow to knob to barrel, his upper body is playing catch-up. Also, he sometimes is too strong with his top hand, limiting his extension a bit and causing him to finish up.

Swing Grade – B+ – There is a lot of room for improvement in Beckham's swing, which is pretty scary given his high level of success already. With some seasoning and professional development, Beckham has a tool set that could make him a well above-average hitter.

Fielding
Beckham is smooth and confident in the field. He is a plus-defender with great hands, above-average arm strength and good range to both sides. The tool-set is ideal for shortstop, and Beckham has a world of potential at that position.

Fielding Grade – A

Is Beckham Worthy of 1:4?

At this point, compared to the rest of the candidates to go in the top 3, Beckham is primarily a set of tools -- and what a set his is. He profiles as an above-average hitter, an above-average fielder at a valuable position and anywhere from an average to above-hitter hitter for power, depending on how his swing is crafted at the pro-level. If Baltimore is fortunate enough to have the opportunity to draft Beckham at 1:4, they would be wise to jump at it. Beckham will take a few extra years to develop, but the wait should be well worth it.

Prospect Grade – A
Suggested Draft Slot – 1-3
1:4 Recommendation – Draft

Current Draft Board

1. Pedro Alvarez (3B) Vanderbilt University
2. Tim Beckham (SS) Griffin High School (Georgia)
3. Buster Posey (C) Florida State University
4. Justin Smoak (1B) University of South Carolina
5. Gordon Beckham (SS) University of Georgia

Draft Preview Schedule

6/1pm Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego
6/1pm Aaron Crow (SP) University of Missouri
6/2 Potential Targets for Rounds 2-3
6/3 Potential Targets for Rounds 4-5
6/4 Mail Bag and Final War-Room Review
6/5 Camden Depot Shadow Draft and Live Draft Coverage

Don't forget to keep the great questions coming for this Thursday's Mailbag.