The Manny Machado Sadness Extravaganza

Well, here we are. Based on all of the different reports flying around the Web, it sure sounds like Manny Machado has played his final game for the Baltimore Orioles. The latest news indicates that Philadelphia is the likely landing spot as the Phillies have upped their offer to include their number two overall prospect, and one of the top 100 youngsters in the game, 21-year-old pitcher Adonis Medina.

Nothing is final, but the finish line is rapidly approaching. Now what? Should we be happy? Are we relieved? Or is this all just so, so terrible? Perhaps it is a cop-out to say that it is a mix of everything, but that is the most honest answer.

A full reaction to Machado's exit won't be possible until after the trade is completed. That is when the analysis of who the Orioles have acquired can truly begin. Even then, we won't know who "won" the deal until several years down the road.

For now, let's enjoy watching Machado pull on the Orioles uniform one last time at tonight's All-Star Game and see where all the chips fall. Unfortunately, we don't have any other options.

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Everyone's Available: Going for It in 2017

Photo Credit: Keith Allison

Considering the Orioles have lost 7 games in a row and now sit in 3rd place of the AL East, this probably isn’t the best time for this post. But since I’ve already started it and the Orioles are by no means out of the race (and I don’t have time for a last minute pivot), I’m going to post it anyway. Following the Jimenez/Wilson induced train wreck of last week’s game against the Minnesota Twins, I was reminded how badly the Orioles need to improve their starting pitching. This is not a new thought for me or most other people who follow the Orioles. In fact, I’m sure that “the Orioles need more starting pitching” is something I’ve thought and/or discussed at some point before or during every season since I started writing about the team. In most of those previous years however, the team has found ways to win with at best an average rotation by having a lights out bullpen. While this year’s bullpen isn’t bad, it has clearly been a step below other Baltimore bullpens in recent years (currently ranked 12th in fWAR), although some of that has been due to Zach Britton’s extended stint(s) on the disabled list. Before we get any further, let’s look at the state of the Orioles’ starting rotation.

Orioles Starting Rotation Rank (2017)

Clearly, the Orioles rotation is not good and could use some reinforcements. And based on what we’ve seen so far, it’s unlikely that those reinforcements are coming from within the organization. On Wednesday, Jon explored the possibility of trading Trey Mancini for Kendall Graveman. Within Jon’s piece, he mentions that the “untouchables” list for 2017 trades may include Hunter Harvey, Chance Sisco, Cody Sedlock, Ryan Mountcastle, and (maybe) Jomar Reyes. While I am on board with the idea trading Mancini as Jon suggests, I would take it one step further and make everyone available in order to get the best starting pitching upgrade possible (note: that doesn’t mean it will be [insert ace pitcher here]).

It’s been a generally accepted notion that things are likely to get bad for the Orioles after the 2018 season. Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Zach Britton, and Brad Brach are all free agents. This is on top of the potential losses of Chris Tillman, Seth Smith, and Wade Miley (if his option is declined) after this season. Additionally, the contracts of Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter end after 2018. Even if the Orioles can bring back Jones, Machado, and Britton, they likely won’t have the payroll flexibility to add the needed role players, and there currently doesn’t look like there will be enough impact talent coming up from the minor leagues to fill the void. It may be a while until the Orioles are as good (or better) as they are right now, so now is the time to push whatever chips they have remaining to the center of the table.

It’s important to remember that when considering trades, quantity does not get you quality, but pairing any of those “untouchable” players (or a couple of them) with Mancini could potentially bring back a starting pitcher of higher value than Kendall Graveman. I agree with Jon that the focus should be on someone who has team control, at least through the 2018 season, as the Orioles plan to (and should) be competitive next year as well. At the moment I’m not sure who that starter might be, and it’s entirely possible that the inclusion of Sisco, Mountcastle, etc. to a Mancini deal may only bring back someone marginally better than Graveman. But they should not be automatically excluded from trade discussions.

Additionally, the potential loss of any of those “untouchable” prospects doesn’t have any bearing on 2018 other than the possibility that they become slightly more valuable as a trade chip next year. All of these players have question marks and in my opinion are better used to help the current MLB club than as foundations for the future.

• Hunter Harvey – High ceiling; has been injured more than he’s played
• Chance Sisco – Great hitter; questions on power and defense
• Cody Sedlock – Mid-rotation ceiling; struggling in High-A Frederick
• Ryan Mountcastle – Good hitter; probably needs to play LF (putting more pressure on his bat)
• Jomar Reyes – Good hitter; probably needs to move to 1B (putting more pressure on his bat)

Sisco is the one guy who could arguably contribute next year, as Welington Castillo’s player option doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll be back after the 2017 season. Having said that, Sisco’s not off to a great start in AAA either, and he may not be quite ready for the big league club at the start of next season. If the post-2018 landscape continues to look bleak, no one in the minor league system (or Trey Mancini) should be untouchable. And in fact, they should be aggressively shopped to help the 2017 team, preferably for starting pitching.

Obviously, a lot can change in the next two months before the trade deadline. The Orioles could fall completely out of contention and look to sell some pieces in an attempt to re-load for 2018. However, if they stay in contention (and by taking care of business within the AL East so far, they’re in a good spot to do that…despite the recent 7 game losing streak), they should go all in on the 2017 season, and do whatever they need to do to make the major league cub as strong as possible. There appear to be dark times coming after 2018, and those “untouchable” minor league players aren’t likely to prevent that.

Ridiculous Trade Idea: How The Orioles Could Acquire Chris Sale

We all know the Orioles need another decent starting pitcher. But what they could really use is an excellent starting pitcher. Considering the O's farm system, however, they don't have the necessary pieces to acquire a true ace (if one were truly available). Well, let's go a little outside the box, then.

The Washington Nationals are desperate for a solid late-game relief arm. Hey, the Orioles have some of those (and one who is really, really good in Zach Britton)! And if you believe everything that's passed along from apparently plugged-in MLB reporters (hint: not always a great idea), the Nationals are willing to trade prized starting pitching prospect Lucas Giolito to accomplish the task:

Sources who have spoken with #Nats believe they would trade Lucas Giolito to #Yankees for Andrew Miller, straight up.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 29, 2016

Apparently the Yankees are not willing to do this. But, you know, perhaps the Orioles should. The Orioles are trying to win now, and dominant relief arms are extremely important. But the O's should also be in the hunt for any kind of starting rotation help. And picking up one of the best young starters in the minors while also not trading away a young, everyday talent like Jonathan Schoop is enticing.

Picking up Giolito but losing Britton, though, isn't a win-now move. While it definitely helps in the long run, losing Britton still hurts. And even though it would make sense to keep Giolito and hope he transforms into an ace, why not use him to trade for someone who's already an ace? That ace would be Chris Sale.

As they should, the White Sox are asking for a ridiculous amount in return for Sale. If they were somehow able to land Giolito, the O's would be able to put together a competitive package for the... let's say, eccentric lefty. By offering Giolito and then two or three of the team's top prospects -- Chance Sisco, Cody Sedlock, Jomar Reyes, Ryan Mountcastle, etc. -- the O's would have a shot to land one of the very best starters in the game.

By doing so, Sale would headline a rotation that immediately doesn't make you shake your head in frustration:

Chris Sale
Chris Tillman
Kevin Gausman
Yovani Gallardo
Dylan Bundy

Regardless of what you think of Bundy's usage, that's a very intriguing and talented crop of pitchers (minus Gallardo). And the best thing about acquiring Sale, besides him being outstanding, is that he's under team control through 2019 for extremely reasonable terms: $12M in 2017, $12.5M option for 2018, and $13.5M club option for 2019. I mean, that's Ubaldo Jimenez money!

Will this actually happen? Of course not. The O's aren't going to trade Britton in the middle of a pennant race, though it will make sense to explore a Britton trade during the offseason. Still, you could kinda, sorta imagine it happening. And it's at least interesting, right?

First-Place Orioles Obviously Aren't Sellers, But Should They Buy?

If you're a glass-half-full type of person, then, at best, you may view the Orioles' trade deadline deals of the past few years as a mixed bag. If you're not, then surely you hated many of them. There are a couple of players who helped the O's -- Andrew Miller, Bud Norris, Scott Feldman -- and also a bunch of guys who didn't. And when you look back at the price to acquire them, it doesn't look so great.

July Trade Players Of Note In The Duquette Era

O’s get: Jim Thome, Omar Quintanilla, Scott Feldman, Steve Clevenger, Francisco Rodriguez, Bud Norris, Andrew Miller, Gerardo Parra, Junior Lake

O’s gave up: Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, Nick Delmonico, Josh Hader, L.J. Hoes, 2014 comp. balance pick, Eduardo Rodriguez, Zach Davies, Tommy Hunter, Gabriel Lino, Kyle Simon

I might have left a couple out, but it's clear that the O's didn't get many bargains. The O's pulled off a cream-of-the-crop addition one time: Andrew Miller. Regardless of what you think of the Miller trade, he was very good in an O's uniform.

The rest of the time, Duquette aimed for the middle, or for relatively minor or moderate upgrades, and those moves mostly did not pay off. If the Orioles wanted to go after another reliever -- clearly Buck Showalter craves another left-hander in the bullpen -- they could put together a trade package for that. But many teams desperately need starting pitching upgrades, and nearly all of them will be able to assemble more enticing groups of prospects than what the O's can cobble together. That could lead the Orioles again shooting for a fringe starter.

So how should the Orioles proceed? It's not an easy question to answer. The way I see it, the Orioles could do one of three things. They could do nothing, rolling the dice with what they have and hoping it somehow works out. Second, they could target a few low-risk, high-variance players who wouldn't cost much. That could keep the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez, Mike Wright, and/or Tyler Wilson out of the starting rotation, even if there's no guarantee the new additions pitch any better. Or third, they could go after a legitimate starting rotation upgrade, whether that's Julio Teheran, Jake Odorizzi, Sonny Gray, Matt Moore, Rich Hill, Drew Pomeranz, Jeremy Hellickson, Ervin Santana, or someone else. Maybe some of those guys aren't on the market. Most likely, the O's would struggle to put together an enticing package for many of those names. And maybe they'd struggle to outbid other teams in the hunt for rotation upgrades. But at least some of those names are within reach.

I've been going back and forth about this. For a while I was in the do-nothing camp, but it's extremely difficult to talk yourself into riding things out with this group of starters. It's just too painful for a core that has a chance to win something significant right now.

The Orioles clearly want to add a left-handed starter. My guess is they would prefer to add two starters to go along with Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Yovani Gallardo. Maybe it would be easier to do that by adding someone like Jon Niese instead of Rich Hill. Either way, you're rolling the dice. These guys aren't aces.

You'd figure it wouldn't take a whole lot to acquire Niese. And again, Niese is just one example. There don't appear to be any slam-dunk starters in this market, or anything similar to the skill level the O's acquired when they picked up Miller to improve their bullpen a couple years ago. Maybe the O's could similarly acquire an add-on to a powerhouse bullpen to aid a bad rotation, but it's unlikely they go for a top-shelf reliever again. The O's also probably view Darren O'Day's impending return as the shot in the arm the bullpen needs.

At the minimum, I think the O's need to pursue a starting pitcher of some kind and a left-handed reliever. But no matter what, I won't feel great about it. The O's have the opportunity to make a decent move or two and improve their chances of getting into the playoffs, but in order to do that, they'd hurt an already weak farm system. Just because the Orioles have a low-rated minor league system doesn't mean it's completely devoid of talent. Whether the O's would be able to get the most out of those prospects is a fair question to ask, but that that's even a question is pretty sad for the state of the O's prospect development system currently in place.

This is what can happen when you both refuse to pay top dollar for starting pitching but are also terrible at developing your own pitching prospects. And yet, the O's are still, somehow, two games up in the American League East.

Being a GM is hard. The Orioles need starting rotation help. They also routinely need prospect help. Who's ready for the trade deadline?

How to Solve the Orioles' Corner Outfield Problem

Matt Kremnitzer wrote an article yesterday for MASN about the Orioles' corner outfield problem. Matt noted that none of the five corner outfield options have been hitting the ball well and that they should really be categorized as "spare parts". Snider has been the best offensively but is inconsistent defensively. Lough has the best defense of the five but has only received 29 PAs and has received a huge offensive boost by being hit by two pitches. Take those out and he has an OBP of .270 with only one extra base hit. De Aza is adequate defensively but has struggled offensively despite minimal at bats against left-handed pitching. Young and Pearce have struggled offensively and aren't known for their defense. So far, the Orioles' plan of signing a whole bunch of outfielders and hoping that a few would have good years hasn't been successful and therefore the Orioles need to come up with a new plan.

The problem is that the Orioles seem to have their payroll maxed out. The Orioles recently traded away two international draft picks in return for a fringe prospect. They've also traded away a competitive balance pick in order to add a few fringe prospects and dump Ryan Webb's salary. It's possible that the Orioles are trying to clear money in order to have resources to make a huge splash at the trade deadline. It's also possible that the Orioles have spent all that they can on payroll and need to cut expenses.

The Orioles also have a mostly barren farm system. Baseball America ranked the O's system #29th this year with only two prospects ranked in the Top 100. The fact that one of them, Hunter Harvey, is currently injured just further limits the Orioles' options. It doesn't appear like the Orioles will be able to spend a lot of money or offer prospects in return for that outfielder that they need.

That is why I think the Orioles' best option may be to trade for Shane Victorino. Shane Victorino is in the last year of a three year contract and is earning $13 million this year. After an excellent 2013, Victorino was hurt for a large chunk of 2014 and has been unimpressive so far in 2015. He only is hitting for a .212/.339/.308 line with a wRC+ of 83. However, he also has three stolen bases and does have good defense in right field. If he can bounce back then he can be the leadoff hitter this club needs that allows Machado to bat second or he can be an excellent threat in the ninth spot in the order. With one year remaining on his contract, the Orioles wouldn't be taking on a huge risk by trading for him.

Even better, the Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders and could afford to let him go. They already have Ramirez in left field, Mookie Betts in center field as well as Holt and Nava as possible replacements in the majors while having Castillo, Bradley and Craig in the minors. Given that they already have Ortiz at DH, Napoli at 1B and Sandoval at 3B, the Red Sox simply have too many position players for too few spots and would probably be open to trading a player or two.

If the Red Sox have position players then what they lack is pitching. Their rotation has been terrible so far this year. Their best starter has an ERA of 4.26. Clay Buchholz has an FIP of 2.91 but an ERA of 4.93 and has always struggled to stay healthy. Their bullpen has arguably been even worse. Their closer, Uehara, has been solid. Tazawa has had good results so far with a 1.56 ERA but only a 4.48 FIP. They only have four relievers with positive fWAR and as a whole their bullpen has been worth negative WAR.

They do have a considerable amount of pitching depth in the minors but they have a lot of holes to fill and could use some major league talent. Meanwhile, the Orioles' pitching has struggled but has plenty of arms in the majors and minors. Trading a starter would simply open up a spot in the rotation for Gausman. The Orioles have a number of relief prospects in the minors and could therefore afford to consider trading a reliever.

A possible deal could be Shane Victorino for Tommy Hunter and Bud Norris. These players have similar salaries combined and therefore money shouldn't be an issue. All of these players have struggled so far this year but each could potentially bounce back.

Bud Norris has been terrible so far this year and is currently on the DL. But he is coming off of a year where he went 15-8 with a 3.65 ERA and a 4.22 FIP. It is possible that once he's healthy he would be able to bounce back. More likely, the Red Sox could immediately slot him in the bullpen and see whether he can be another pitcher that sees success when moved from the rotation to the bullpen.

Tommy Hunter has also struggled so far this year but has been a good reliever the past two years. After having a rough April, he has put together a solid May with a 2.70 ERA over 6.2 innings and could potentially have turned a corner. He is a potential late inning reliever that could help the Red Sox bridge the gap to Uehara. However, the Orioles have a number of good relievers with Britton and O'Day and therefore could afford to trade Hunter.

Shane Victorino would be the player in this deal most likely to make an impact. However, it's unlikely that he could do so in Boston given that he's not one of their top outfielders. And as he'll be a free agent next year, the Red Sox would be well served to move on as quickly as possible given their other options. The thing is that even if Victorino does bounce back, it is questionable whether he can be better than the other outfielders that Boston has.

The interesting thing about this potential deal is that all three players are expendable and therefore this could happen relatively quickly. These two teams wouldn't need to wait until the trade deadline because these players have more use on the other team than their own.

The Orioles need to find a way to increase the production that they're receiving from corner outfielders without spending a lot of money or trading a lot of young talent. Trading for Shane Victorino is a good way to do just that.

Should the Orioles Take Advantage of San Diego's Outfield Surplus?

SD signed the "Swinging Friar" to play OF
(photo via Nathan Rupert)

We here at Camden Depot have spent much of our time this offseason talking about what the Orioles should do about their outfield.  With six starting pitchers, a strong bullpen, and an infield already occupied by some pretty good players, the outfield is the most obvious place for improvement in Baltimore, especially after the departures of Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis.  As the San Diego Padres continue to collect major league outfielders, it’s natural to look at their surplus and see if any of those players would look nice in Oriole orange, so let’s do that now.

Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Wil Myers

This is not going to happen. Additionally, there have been rumblings that San Diego may try to use Myers as a part of a package to get Cole Hamels.

Will Venable

The 32-year-old outfielder has a very similar profile to Alejandro De Aza (look at their Baseball-Reference pages and see that they’re basically the same player), so acquiring Venable wouldn’t make sense.  Additionally, Venable plays good defense in center field (something none of the new acquisitions do well) and is under contract in 2015 for a very affordable $4.25 million, so it’s likely the Padres aren’t all that motivated to move him.

Seth Smith

Smith had a career year in 2014 during his first season in San Diego, batting .266/.367/.440 (AVG/OBP/SLG), which was good for a wRC+ of 133.  Not only was did his hitting improve, but his walk rate jumped to 13.2% (career 10.6%) while his strikeout rate dropped to 16.7% (career 18.8%).  It doesn’t appear to be luck driven either, as his BABIP was at his career level and his batted ball statistics were mostly near career averages as well (save for a huge drop in infield fly balls).  And although Smith may not initially be thought of as a good defender, he’s actually decent in left field, being worth 4 Defensive Runs Saved in almost 3,000 innings.

With a career wRC+ of 63 against left-handed pitching (123 wRC+ against RHP), Smith is strictly a platoon bat.  However, with the versatility of Steve Pearce, the Orioles should be able to move some players around so that Smith would never have to see a left-handed pitcher.  He signed a two-year, $13 million extension in July, so he would be a good trade target for Baltimore considering his relatively low salary and two years of control. He didn’t receive a no-trade clause as part of that extension, but he was given assurances by the team that he wouldn’t be traded after signing, which likely decreases the chance (or increases the price) of the Padres dealing him.

Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin career statistics (*combined DRS between LF and RF)

Make no mistake, Carlos Quentin can hit a baseball, and it doesn’t matter if it’s being thrown by a right-handed pitcher or a left-handed pitcher (he’s actually better against RHP).  Additionally, Quentin is only owed $8 million in 2015, with a $10 million mutual option in 2016 (with a $3 million buyout), which according to Marc Normandin, is no longer an issue.

Just noticed Quentin is only owed a $3M option buyout if he plays 320 games between 2013-2015, a feat that is now mathematically impossible
— Marc Normandin (@Marc_Normandin) December 22, 2014

However, if you look at his outfield defensive numbers in the table above, he loses quite a bit of value when he’s actually in the field.  Essentially when Quentin plays, he’s a better version of Delmon Young, without the platoon issues.  However, that’s the other issue with Quentin: His lack of durability has limited him to no more than 340 plate appearances in a season since 2011.  Looking at his injury page on Baseball Prospectus is downright frightening, and injuries to both knees have caused him to miss 240 games since the start of the 2012 season.

Quentin belongs in the American League where he can avoid playing the field altogether.  As long as he’s healthy, Quentin would be a good target for the Orioles as a replacement for Delmon Young/full-time DH.  Based on his injury history, the Orioles should be able to acquire Quentin cheaply in terms of prospects, and if they could get the Padres to cover at least half his salary (if not more), he’d be a gamble worth taking.

Cameron Maybin

When the Justin Upton deal went down, Maybin was the first Padre outfielder that came to my mind, resulting in this tweet.

If I were the #Orioles I'd maybe ask if #Padres could just give me Cameron Maybin (assuming health of course).
— OriolesProvingGround (@OriolesPG) December 19, 2014

After taking some additional time to think about it, two years and $16 million may be a little expensive for Maybin’s services (Maybin is owed $7 million in 2015, $8 million in 2016, and a $9 million club option in 2017, with a $1 million buyout).  Similar to Quentin, Maybin’s track record of health (or lack thereof) is concerning, to the point that it would be foolish to count on him for a full season.  Due to knee, wrist, and shoulder injuries, he’s tallied only 329 plate appearances the last two years, and those plate appearances haven’t gone well (a 30 wRC+ in 57 PA’s in 2013 and a 77 wRC+ in 272 PA’s in 2014).

Thanks to decent hitting (96 wRC+), excellent center field defense (24 DRS), and good baserunning (15.4 BsR), Maybin was worth 6.5 fWAR between 2011-2012.  And as a former top prospect (ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him #29 in his 2009 top 100), he’s the obvious upside play of this group.  As a prospect, he was projected as a possible 30 home run bat.  He hasn’t hit for much power in the major leagues (career ISO of .110), but at 27 years old (he’ll play the 2015 season at 28), there is still a chance that power shows up, although that chance is admittedly small.

Even if the Padres provide some financial relief, a Maybin acquisition is risky.  Not only is his health a major concern, but his strengths (defense and baserunning) don’t have as much value to a team like the Orioles, who already have two similar players in David Lough and De Aza on their roster.

Cameron Maybin potentially has the chance to add more value to the 2015 Orioles than any other of the San Diego outfielders, but the chances that he stays healthy AND hits well are relatively small.  For a team that plans on contending in 2015, the Orioles probably shouldn't be taking the chance of both happening in 2015.

Conclusion

Seth Smith, Carlos Quentin, and Cameron Maybin could each be a possible fit for the Orioles.  None of these players should cost too much in terms of prospects (especially true for Quentin and Maybin), but whether it’s platoon issues, injuries, or ineffectiveness, each player comes with his own limitations.  Given the makeup of the roster and the Orioles' plans for contention in 2015, Carlos Quentin (if healthy) is likely the best (and most realistic) San Diego outfielder for Baltimore to target this offseason.  Although as mentioned previously on Camden Depot, the Orioles could do just end up doing nothing, and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.