Why the Orioles Ignore OBP

Dan Duquette has been preaching the importance of OBP since he came to the Orioles. Fans have noted that this team could be improved if they fixed the problems in this area. Therefore, one might have thought that the Orioles would have attempted to add high OBP players this offseason such as Nori Aoki. Instead, the Orioles ended up trading for Travis Snider, signing J.P. Arencibia, Delmon Young, and Chris Parmelee while nearly signing Colby Rasmus. From 2012-2014, Travis Snider had the highest OBP out of the five options at .314. In addition, the Orioles lost two of their top OBP options when Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis departed via free agency. The Orioles' best OBP threats are players like Steve Pearce, Chris Davis, and Matt Wieters that have decent hit tools but primarily hit for power. The one regular that the Orioles have who primarily hits for OBP is Alejandro De Aza. The Orioles may be willing to talk about the importance of OBP but their actions indicate that it has limited importance.

I think the reason can be explained by studying Camden Yards park factors. The file below shows the average Fangraphs park factors by handedness for the past six years which can be used to determine which types of hitters will benefit from playing in Camden Yards. I also used hit frequency data and hit value data provided by Fangraphs to build a metric that determines which stadiums are the most hitter friendly by handedness. Here’s the data.

This analysis indicates that Camden Yards is the second easiest stadium for left-handed hitters to hit and primarily rewards home run power, which should come as no surprise. The most valuable type of left-handed offensive players is power hitters and probably explains why the Orioles were interested in Travis Snider. Camden Yards is the sixth hardest stadium for a left-handed hitter to hit a triple and therefore means that left-handed players relying on speed are at a significant disadvantage. Camden Yards is the sixth easiest stadium for a lefty to hit a single and the seventh easiest to hit a double. If Fangraphs park factors are accurate then it makes sense for the Orioles to focus on left-handed batters with plus power and can hit for a decent average while discouraging them to focus on batters with plus speed or those who have high walk rates. This explains why the Orioles aren’t focusing on finding left-handed hitters whose best tool is getting on base.

Camden Yards isn’t as friendly to right-handed hitters but is the sixth easiest ballpark for a right-handed hitter to bash a home run which again shouldn’t come as a surprise. For right-handed batters, Camden Yards is the sixth hardest stadium to hit a triple and the eighth hardest to hit a double, which therefore discourages speed. It’s the eighth easiest stadium for a right-handed hitter to hit a single and therefore encourages average. It makes sense for the Orioles to focus on finding right-handed hitters that have plus power while hitting for average and can pick up walks. 

This indicates that power is the most important tool for an offensive player at Camden Yards and therefore why the Orioles focus on it. In contrast, the Royals play in a stadium where it’s hard to hit home runs but easy to hit triples, doubles, and singles. Therefore, they need to stay away from offensive players with power and simply focus on players that can hit for average and have excellent speed. Different teams need to focus on different players.  

Many times when people look at player performance they look solely at the numbers. The problem is that a .330 OBP at Camden Yards simply isn’t as good as a .330 OBP at Petco Park.  wOBA does account for where a player played but doesn’t consider whether the player is a good fit for the ballpark where they play. A player that is a true .330 wOBA offensive player could be significantly better or worse in a ballpark that is tailored to his strengths or weaknesses. In 2013, Josh Hamilton was signed by the Angels and moved from a ballpark that was hitter-friendly to a ballpark where left-handed batters struggle. Hamilton has actually had a 136.5 wRC+ in 2011 and 2012 as a Ranger and a 127 wRC+ in 2013 and 2014 as an Angel while playing on the road. He’s struggling playing at home because it’s easier for players with his skillset to hit in Texas rather than Anaheim. 

This seems to explain why the Orioles have structured the team the way they have. The Orioles have Chris Davis, Matt Wieters (Wieters is arguably a switch-hitter but is considerably better batting as a left-handed hitter than a right-handed hitter), and now Travis Snider as left-handed batters with considerable power. Rasmus also hits left handed and could have been used in the same role that the Orioles intend to use Snider. Schoop, Pearce, Machado, Jones, and Hardy provide much needed right-handed power while De Aza and Young are batters that can get on base.*

Going forward this indicates that the Orioles will have a challenge next year when Wieters, Davis, and Pearce become free agents. The Orioles have few left-handed bats in the minors so they’ll need to address this challenge either in free agency or via trades. It might make sense for the Orioles to try to fill these holes by targeting left-handed batters that have shown some power while playing at stadiums that put left-handed power hitters at a disadvantage. If so, then focusing on players that have played on the Giants, Padres, Athletics, Mets, Royals, Twins, Angels, Pirates, Rays, and Mariners makes sense. 

Players like Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez are plausible trade targets while Matt Joyce, Colby Rasmus, and Adam Lind are cheap free agent options. Curtis Granderson struggled at home for the Mets in 2014 but was solid on the road. If he performs similarly in 2015, then the Orioles should be able to acquire him in return for eating most of his salary. If the Orioles are willing to spend a lot of money on a free agent, then Alex Gordon could be an option. He has 20 home run power while playing in Kauffman Stadium, so it would be interesting to see if he can make the adjustments necessary to hit 30 homers in Camden Yards without losing his ability to hit for average. 

The Orioles have talked a lot about improving OBP but haven’t taken much action because their ballpark encourages them to sign players that hit for power rather than average. As long as the Orioles play in Camden Yards they should continue following this plan in order to maximize their home field advantage.

* Edit: I originally mistakenly wrote that Pearce was a left-handed batter while De Aza was a right-handed batter. That error has been fixed.

Orioles Still Have a Problem Getting on Base

Last week, Matt took a look at how the flaws of the Baltimore rotation were already showing in the first week of the season.  Issues that plagued the starting pitchers last year, such as low strikeout totals, high home run totals, and not pitching deep into games were prominently on display. This reinforces the fact that despite the addition of Ubaldo Jimenez, some of the core issues that limited the rotation’s effectiveness in 2013 had not necessarily been addressed.  This week, we’ll turn our attention to the offense.

The Orioles offense was not short on power in 2013, however they had trouble consistently getting on base.  This was evident in their 6.8% walk rate (tied for last in the AL) and their .313 OBP (10^th in the AL).  Just for reference, in the 2013 season, the average BB% and OBP in the American League was 8.1% and .320, respectively.  While that may not seem like a lot, the difference between a 6.8% and 8.1% walk rate over the course of 6,184 plate appearances (the average number of plate appearances per AL team in 2013) is approximately 80 walks.  Based on the results of linear weights calculations (which can be found here at Fangraphs), a walk in 2013 was worth 0.69 runs.  This would mean that accumulating an extra 80 walks would result in a team scoring approximately 55 additional runs over the course of the season, which is not insignificant when you consider that 10 runs is approximately equal to one win.  The bottom line is that over the course of a season, a team can realize great benefits by putting an extra fraction of a runner on base per game.

Looking at the first two weeks of the 2014 season, we see that not much has changed for the Orioles.  Here is a graph showing the Orioles BB% compared to the rest of the league (click the figure to enlarge).

What you see in this graph really shouldn’t be all that surprising, especially considering the position players the Orioles added to the team during the offseason (minimum of 400 major league PA’s).

Nelson Cruz has the career best OBP, and is tied for the best walk rate of the group.  This isn’t surprising as he was easily the highest profile offensive acquisition during the offseason.  While he made the Orioles better overall, he gave them more of what they already had (power), while failing to significantly improve the team with a vital skill they currently lack (getting on base).  The current average OBP for all of baseball is .317.  So while Cruz is slightly better in that regard, he and Jemile Weeks (who probably won’t see much action in Baltimore this year) are the only ones who can make that claim.

It’s true that Baltimore hasn’t been at full strength yet, with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy currently missing time. While there’s no doubt that each of them will make the Orioles a much better team when they return to the lineup, neither counts an above average walk rate as one of their many baseball skills (Hardy has a career walk rate of 7.0% while Machado’s is at 4.2%).

Admittedly, this analysis has been performed over a very small sample.  However, that small sample size caveat applies to the individual players as well.  For example, Nelson Cruz currently leads the team with a 13.5% walk rate.  Based on what has occurred over his more than 3,000 career major league PA’s, that number will likely come down as the season progresses.  On the other end of the spectrum, Nick Markakis’ walk rate is currently at 2.4% (career 9.3%), so you’d just as easily expect that to come back up.  It’s definitely early in the season, so there is plenty of time for the Orioles to improve their overall walk rate and team OBP, but based on the 2013 roster carry over and the players added in the offseason, I wouldn’t be surprised if the team’s walk rate (in relation to the rest of the league) doesn’t change much over the course of the year.

The fact that the Orioles don’t walk much as a team doesn’t necessarily mean they have a bad offense.  It just means their offense isn’t nearly as good as it could be.