Afternoon Cup of jO's: 2016 Orioles GM Election

Let's assume that the Dan Duquette is leaving the Orioles and that the choices to some extent mirror the current election for President of the United States of America.  This silly little exercise will propose potential GM candidates that resemble the current presidential candidates as well as my reasoning as to why they resemble the candidate.

First, which candidate is most like Hillary Clinton? (Trump's comps follow Clinton's)

Clinton is a long-term establishment political figure who is loved by a few, disliked by many, and found acceptable by others.  She certainly produced successes over her career, but none have been as a top executive.  Additionally, as a major player she has been associated as part of the process to policy or events that did not turn out well.

Please go to the polls and submit your vote.  This is not about who you want, but who you think most resembles the candidate.

Here is the Clinton poll on Twitter (ends on Monday).

Eddie Murray
Murray was a very promising prospect who had a career so solidly above average that some consider it great.  His poor relationship with the media and how he talked fueled a dislike of him.  He put in several years of hard work trying to earn an MLB head coaching job that never came to fruition.

Rick Dempsey
Dempsey has been around a number of great successes, directly led to a few successes, and has long sought after a baseball position with considerable decision-making potential.  He is loved by a few, appreciated by many, and completely disregarded by others.

Cal Ripken, Jr.
His selection almost seems obvious and his proponents are completely confused by those who dread seeing him in charge.  He had considerable success as a player and has successfully headed a foundation that bears his last name.  Some think his highly esteemed status is more a product of appearing in many consecutive games rather than his actual performance.  Some think his future success is a by product of the entitlement his surname possesses.

Jim Palmer
A big name player who has been rewarded with many accolades.  However, his actual performance does not seem to completely line up with one of the greats and to some extent seems a bit reliant on the abilities of others in the field.  He has stepped away from the limelight from time to time, but always feels himself being pulled back in.  He seems fairly competent, but occasionally says something peculiar.

Second, which one of the follow is most Trump-like?

Here is the Trump poll on Twitter (ends on Monday)

Peter Schmuck
Schmuck is a household name from his time at the Baltimore Sun.  He has a strong fan base that adores his voice of the common fan approach and his criticism of the current regime.  While he has not directly been involved in the game, he has succeeded immensely on the outskirts of it.  Some fans think his thoughts are naïve and merely intended to appease the crowd.

Roch Kubatko
Arguably the most dominant public, non-player in the Orioles fan sphere.  Well seasoned in observing and interacting with the game.  Fairly confidant in knowing what is going on and able to continually and capably shoot from the hip.  Somewhat notorious for thin skin and seeking out the haters to battle with them.

Buster Olney
Local guy who became one of the major voices in baseball media. Has had an off and on relationship with the Orioles in his writing.  His soundbites succinctly address issues and he seems somewhat progressive in his perspective.  Like the others, he has never been a part of the system.

Roy Firestone
One of the early major forces in cable sports and a life long Orioles fan who completely and utterly wants the Orioles to be Great Again.  His heart runs hot and orange, which you can regularly see with his frequent posts over at Orioles Hangout.  However, he has never run a club and his views are considered somewhat traditional.

Come on down, Dan Duquette!

Duquette at a Sabermetrics Seminar in 2011

Dan Duquette will be named the Orioles successor to Andy MacPhail as the head of all baseball operations for the team.  It has been a rough bumpy road.  Jerry DiPoto interviewed and quickly signed on to be the Angels General Manager.  Tony Lacava was offered a position and then declined.  DeJon Watson removed his named from consideration, which probably was not all that important as the Orioles appeared not to like what he had to say in his interview anyway.  Next, several potential candidates turned down interviews ranging from Andrew Freidman to Allard Baird.  It was not a good month for the team who essentially knew back in July that MacPhail was not returning.

Duquette has a tough assignment ahead of him.  He certainly knows a lot of folks, but he is dealing with a rather public shunning of Peter Angelos by many baseball professionals and that many teams have settled the market for scouts and managers.  That leaves the team in a bit of a lurch and may translate into a rather rough off season and, potentially, 2012 draft.  Even though I think the public piling on of professionals and media was a bit much, it is not like it was not deserved.  To some extent, maybe almost completely, it was a justified response to what has seemed like one of the worst episodes in hiring a GM.  Mind you, the worst episode was back in 2005 when Theo Epstein escaped Fenway Park in a Gorilla costume and the Red Sox interviewed five people (including Jim Beattie) before giving Epstein what he wanted.

Duquette has a rather uneven past.  As a director of player development and as a GM for the Montreal Expos, he oversaw that franchise turning into a power house through international signings and player development.  He took the rudderless Red Sox and rearranged them to consistently make the playoffs as well as create the foundation for Theo Epstein to succeed in 2004 with a World Series win.  He also had a rather unfortunate public spat with Roger Clemens and was known for being a bit too blunt at times when giving interviews with the media.  As far as he took the Red Sox, his teams were often a bit limited as well.  He signed players like Jose Canseco and dealt for players like Carl Everett.  The teams had awful clubhouse chemistry (as was reported) and that was associated with the team's collapses.

After being fired, Duquette has not had a lot of interaction with Major League baseball.  He quickly began to work in collegiate player development.  He was involved in owning the Dukes, a summer collegiate team from 2003 to 2009.  He also worked to establish the Israel Baseball League in 2007, which folded due to financial reasons after the season ended.  Also in 2007, he was a finalist to be the Pittsburgh Pirates CEO/President (it eventually went to Frank Coonally).  He is also a frequent guest during seminars about sabermetrics.

What does it all mean?

I am not sure.  Duquette is known to understand the value of international signings and player development.  He was big on that during his Montreal years.  With the Red Sox, he spent more time working on the free agent market.  He also showed during his time there an understanding of sabermetrics that was at most a step or two behind Billy Beane, but a good five to seven years in front of him in understanding the value of foreign players.

The Problem with LaCava's Decision

Lots of things could have happened for Tony LaCava to decline signing with the Orioles.  Highly talented people sometimes don't take good jobs (see Rick Hahn or Billy Beane).  I think it might be presumptuous to say it had to do with limitations placed by Angelos on him.  Frankly, we do not know and it does not really matter.  If Angelos is a problem, he is a constant.  He will not change, so we must focus on the part of the team that can change.

So what is the problem with Tony LaCava's decision?

It resets the interview process with two days to free agency.  DeJon Watson and John Stockstill will not be given a fair shake by the press or the public as the best options.  Watson will likely be seen as the third choice and, perhaps unfairly, Stockstill might be seen as a placeholder.  In this light, the team has to interview at least two more people and that will set the clock back another week.  The organization was already going to go through some pains through transition and this delays that further.

At some point, it might actually be best for Buck to take a year off from the dugout and try being a General Manager.  I don't think that is best for the Orioles in the long run.  However, if they want to move quickly in free agency they need to start getting their plan in order.  That might mean continuity.

So again, the issue today is not that LaCava is not coming here.  There are several GM candidates in baseball who have as good potential as he does.  The issue is that the front office remains unsettled while everyone else is ready to enter the off season.

Buck Supposedly Has the Option of Being GM and Manager Concurrently

Manager and GM Paul Richards

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal reported that Buck Showalter will be given a free hand to turn the Orioles into a competitor.  This includes the option that Buck could serve as both the GM and manager.  This was a topic I brought up several weeks ago.  I could see this working out, but Buck would have to be more of GM that sets the general tone and direction for the franchise while someone else does the day-to-day activities that take up quite a bit of time.  In today's game, it is just impractical and largely impossible to do both jobs.  A GM's perspective is often broader and more forward thinking than the manager.  Second, it gives more opportunity for a player to be upset with his manager because the same guy is also determining things like salary.

Buck would be the first person to occupy this position since Paul Richards who was the Orioles GM and manager from 1955 to 1958 when Lee MacPhail took over the GM role, leaving Richards as only the manager of the team.  Even back in the 50s this was considered a unique situation.  There are just too many reasons for this not to be a good idea and it is why few have ever tried to do it.  The following is a list of individuals who I have found who have recently occupied both positions since 1980.

Whitey Herzog
1981-1982 St. Louis Cardinals
In the beginning of the 1980 season, Herzog took over as manager from Bobby Winkles.  In August, Herzog left the dugout to go to the front office as General Manager.  He assigned Red Schoendeist to take the helm.  However, during the offseason, Herzog felt that no one could manage better than he could, deciding to occupy both GM and manager positions.  In 1981, Herzog had the most wins in the NL East, but failed to win the division due to funky strike-shortened season rules.  In 1982, the Cardinals downed the Brewers in the World Series.  Herzog is one of the few (maybe only) person to win a World Series as both manager and General Manager in the same season.  It should be noted though that he did resign from his GM duties in April of 1982, so it may not be wholly accurate to refer to him as holding both titles for a championship team.

Gene Michael
1981 New York Yankees
The Yankees of the 70s and 80s were a dysfunctional mess.  This became readily apparent during the merry go round of coaching that Michael oversaw during his tenure as GM.  He performed poorly and Bob Lemon took over and took the Yankees to the World Series.  The Yankees lost and Michael was no longer the GM.

Paul Owens
1983 Philadelphia Phillies
Paul Owens thought the Phillies were underperforming and that he could bring more out of the team.  He helped them finished 47-30 and took them to the World Series where Rick Dempsey and the Orioles were waiting for him.  Encouraged by his performance as manager, he resigned from his front office position to dedicate himself to the dugout.  He finished the year 81-81 and was removed as manager.  From 1985 until his death, he was assigned as a senior adviser to the Phillies.

Jack McKeon
1988-1990 San Diego Padres
Year two of the Larry Bowa tenure went just as poorly as the first and McKeon brought down the ax.  He decided to take the reins himself and the team went 67-48 over the rest of the season, finishing in third place.  McKeon retained both titles in 1989 and the Padres went 89-73, second in the NL West.  1990 though was not as successful and McKeon resigned as manager after going 37-43.  After the season, he also had his GM duties taken away.

Bobby Cox
1990 Atlanta Braves
Bobby Cox oversaw several poor Atlanta Braves teams managed by Chuck Tanner and Russ Nixon.  As a fairly successful manager with the Toronto Blue Jays, it made sense for Cox to be rather critical of how the managers under him performed.  Cox decided to take matters into his own hands 66 games into 1990.  His presence did not remarkably improve the team's performance in 1990, but he felt he could do more to help the young players he had been accumulating of the past five years in the dugout as opposed to in the front office.  After the season, John Schuerholtz was lured from the Kansas City Royals to serve as the Braves GM with Bobby Cox remaining in the dugout.

Conclusion
I think it says a lot that 1990 was the last time a manager doubled as a GM.  Whitey Herzog and Jack McKeon were the only two who have ever done this over a whole season in the past 32 years.  They were both successful, but found it to be overwhelming and thought it best to concentrate on one position.  To me, it is inconceivable that one person could do both jobs adequately.  If Angelos does allow Buck to serve in both roles and Buck chooses that route, I do not think this team will be best served under that scenario.

More Info on Replacing MacPhail

Tony Lacava

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal reported on who Angelos might replace as Andy MacPhail's replacement.  I've noticed over the years that Rosenthal's stellar reporting on Baltimore's future has become more and more hit or miss.  I think many of his connections from his days in town are no longer tight with the team.  That said, I do think his reporting should be noted.  In his column, he cited the Marlins' Dan Jennings and the Jays' Tony LaCava.  Both would be fine choices.  I have written earlier on Jennings in this column.  Specifically, I wrote:

Jennings has been rumored for GM positions for about ten years now.  Last year he was a finalist in the Mets opening before losing out to Sandy Alderson.  Jennings is known as being skilled at scouting and would probably complement Buck Showalter quite well.  As a long time Florida employee, he is also well aware of Joe Jordan.  If the Orioles want more continuity along with revamping the organization to be more efficient, Jennings might be that guy and Jordan might be a great help to him.  The weakness here though is that this leaves no one in the front office in control who has experience running the day-to-day operations of the team.  Buck would need someone who is well skilled to be able to turn deals that Buck cannot do while sitting in the dugout.  I do think Jennings would be an interesting choice.

I do think Jordan and Jennings would make a good team, but seven years have passed between them and the word is that Jordan will not seek a continuation of his service with Baltimore.  I have had my disagreements with how Jordan chooses to spend his money, but am wholly sincere when I say that I find him to be an average to above average scouting director.  Jennings knows his scouting though and would find someone suitable to work with him in forging a solid front office built on a strong foundation of amateur assessment.  Of course, this group will need to figure out what the developmental hangups are in this organization.

The second person mentioned, Tony LaCava, was not mentioned before in this blog.  LaCava would be a great pick up.  He has been toiling with the Blue Jays for several seasons and had been retained by Alex Anthopoulos.  He has been a runner up for several positions including the Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals, and Pittsburgh Pirates.  LaCava is someone who everyone seems to know in baseball.  This also may be a problem.  LaCava might be a MacPhail without track record of relative success.  Like MacPhail, everyone seems to know LaCava and everyone seems to think he has a great baseball mind.  LaCava, now in his 50s, has been on the threshold of being a GM, so it makes one wonder why he continually is passed over.  The Orioles may also provide a situation where the best of the interview worn bunch may not be a ticket for the World Series.  LaCava may have been unjustly overlooked several times in his career (perhaps due to some lack of involvement in player development), but this Orioles' franchise in this division may need someone who is willing to think unconventionally.  Maybe LaCava is that person.  Maybe he is the guy who has had a heavy hand in transforming the Jays.  He just might be.  If he is, I think it would arguably be the best acquisition since Pat Gillick was inked.  However, I have my doubts.

That said, both of these candidates would give the Orioles General Managers who will likely be average to above average in performing their duties.  Neither would be an out and out mistake.  I recognize my own personal bias in wanting to find an untested genius, but it may be that these somewhat well-traveled careers have been voyaged by individuals who have incredibly creative minds to take the current relatively stable and somewhat under performing Baltimore Orioles and act in a successful, unconventional way.  It has been too long that other teams have mimicked the Rays and Jays or wished they had the revenue to mimic the BoSox or Yanks.  Let others wish they had the brain power of the Orioles or at least fail extraordinarily trying.

Life After Andy MacPhail: Experienced Hands Outside of the Organization

Gerry Hunsicker

In the previous two posts, we considered potential General Manager candidates within the organization and those without GM experience, outside of the organization.  Our feeling is that Buck will have a great deal of say in who the next GM is as well as MacPhail having some infuence as well.  Ultimately, the final choice will need to be someone willing to let Buck dictate the organizational direction while being able to hand the day to day duties of a General Manager that Buck would be unable to do if he remained in the dugout.  There are several candidates that have GM experience and who might be interested in such an arrangement.

John Hart
Senior Adviser, Texas Rangers

Hart has accomplished a great deal in his time in Major League Baseball.  He moved up through the ranks with the Orioles in the 1980s as a minor league manager and a season as a third base coach.  He then flipped over to the Indians where he served as a scout and, for 19 games, the interim manager before being promoted to Director of Baseball Operations.  In the 1990s, he oversaw the Cleveland powerhouse teams that won 6 division titles and appeared twice in the World Series.  He was known at that time for the unusual approach of signing young players long term in order to keep their costs down while buying out free agent years at an assumed lower cost to the franchise.  In 2001, he flipped over to the Rangers and had an uneven record of success with them.  Him and Buck seem to get along together quite well and they may have a decent enough partnership to lead the team together.  I do think though that Hart would not want to be Buck's fixer and adhering to Buck's plan.  Hart's experience would also make him a good Angelos candidate as well.  My only hesitation comes from when he said during the 2010 draft that he would not think twice about drafting Machado ahead of Harper.  I thought that Harper at C, 3B, or RF was clearly a better prospect than Machadon and his ability to stick at shortstop.


Jerry DiPoto
Senior Vice President, Scouting and Player Personnel, Arizona Diamondbacks

You may remember Jerry DiPoto as a relief pitcher for the Indians, Mets, and Rockies back in the 90s.  In the past ten years he has made a quick charge from reliever to a scout in the Boston system to the Director of Scouting and Player Personnel with a short foray as an interim GM for the Diamondbacks.  He is known as a true baseball man and even though his GM tenure was quite short . . . it is anticipated he will returned to that level of management.  His biggest deal as an interim GM was getting Daniel Hudson along with a few other in exchange for Edwin Jackson.  That is pretty good.  With Buck remaining, DiPoto might be a good mix of being willing to listen to someone else's direction due to be being hungry to be a GM.

Wayne Krivsky
Special Assistant to the GM, New York Mets

I assume Krivsky is Sandy Alderson's details man...a sort of GM by function, but not by name.  Orioles fans may remember him best as Andy MacPhail's Special Assistant for the 2009 season.  They may also remember him for his love of Justin Turner.  Wherever Krivsky goes, Turner winds up there via trades or waiver acquisitions.  If MacPhail is part of the process, Krivsky makes the most sense as the two of them share a good relationship with each other.  Krivsky is also known for making smart trades such as acquiring Brandon Phillips for nothing and Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena.  He is also known for trading somewhat valuable commodities in Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez to the Nationals* for a few overworked bullpen arms in a misguided attempt to make the playoffs.  Hopefully, he learned from that mistake.  All things said, he is a very smart guy and is probably itching to get back to being a GM.  I think he would be willing to take on a role similar to MacPhail and would not bristle too much with Buck giving him organizational direction.

Gerry Hunsicker
Senior Vice President, Baseball Operations, Tampa Bay Rays

To be honest, I think Hunsicker is the next General Manager of the Rays.  I think the incredibly talented Andrew Friedman is going to be offered a great deal to take over the Houston Astros.  Friedman will then proceed to win there.  In the resulting void, the Rays will likely try to keep the current framework in place to remain successful.  I could also see them going after someone like A.J. Preller.  However, if Hunsicker is not valued as a GM, I think he would be excited to find opportunities elsewhere.  The reason I think highly of Hunsicker is that he truly appreciates the value of international talent acquisition.  As a GM of the Astros, he helped bring along their Venezuelan program which provided the team with a steady stream of talent (that they would then ship off for valuable veterans).  After being fired and joining the Rays, he scrabbled together some of his old hands in the Astros system and built the Rays Venezuelan effort as well as worked on starting up a Brazilian academy with Andres Reiner.  I think Hunsicker would make do with paying service to Buck while broadening out the Orioles acquisition of talent.  He would be a solid hire.

Allard Baird
Vice President, Player Personnel and Professional Scouting, Boston Red Sox

Some people think Baird was given a raw deal with the Kansas City Royals.  The David Glass ownership was incredibly tight fisted and certainly inhibited the way a team could be run.  However, Drayton "The Process" Moore has been able to develop the Royals farm system into the best in baseball.  Moore's MLB moves are just as confounding as Baird's was, but Moore's group does seem to value scouting appropriately.  That said, Baird is a smart guy and he interviews well.  He is highly experienced, can operate the team in a day-to-day fashion and is likely to put up with Buck calling the shots.  He is in the Red Sox system, so he must know something.  As an organizational type, he might be pleasing to Angelos.

How Would I Rank Them?

Gerry Hunsicker
John Hart
Jerry DiPoto
Wayne Krivsky
Allard Baird

The Orioles' weakness is development and getting enough talent into the system.  Hunsicker's experience will devoting resources to international talent pools is a known commodity.  It is also an area that Buck would have little insight in, giving Hunsicker a free hand.  The Orioles are also known to have issues with organizational personnel in the Dominican, but Hunsicker would likely have free reign in other countries that suit his strength.  Hart is appealing because a unified organization tends to be more successfully then several groups acting separately from one another.  DiPoto is at the break even point for me.  He has been a hard charger and hopefully the Peter Principle would not be in play for him.  Krivsky is interesting, but that reliever trade is the typical misevaluation.  Baird has shown me nothing from his tenure in Kansas City to suggest he is capable of building a winner under restrictions.

I think Hart and Krivsky are the two likely ones from this group to have consideration to replace MacPhail.  The one selected would be based on whoever had more power: Buck or MacPhail.  In future articles, I will go over the choice we see most likely one by one.


* In the original article, I accidentally named the Indians as opposed to the Nationals as the other team in the deal mentioned.

Life After Andy MacPhail: Newcomers Outside of the Organization

Former O's Front Office Employee Scott Proefrock

Since our last piece on potential replacement for Andy MacPhail, we have seen a good deal of conjecturing and pulling for Buck Showalter to leave the dugout and climb the management ladder.  There are many who subscribe to the belief that Buck is an accomplished franchise builder as every team he has been fired from had appeared and/or won a World Series within five or so years after his termination.  If that is not convincing for you, there are many that wax on and on about how incredibly prepared Buck is for each game.  That nuanced day-to-day preparation may serve a front office well.  Of course, the skills that make one a good manager may not necessarily make one a good General Manager.  For instance, managers are typically skilled at getting specific short term objectives whereas General Managers require long term planning and vision.  Well, that is unless you get a sweetheart deal like Ruben Amaro where you can just blow through all of your resources to keep that window wide open.

Another option that would likely work well with Buck would be to hire a young up-and-coming GM prospect who can take care of the day-to-day front office tasks while Buck gives broad organizational directives from the dugout.  This certainly could be done and some argue it is exactly what is being done in St. Louis for better or worse.  St. Louis has won a World Series, but a great deal of luck and Albert Pujols helped that occur.  Anyway, here is a list of GM prospects outside of the organization.

Rick Hahn
Assistant GM, Chicago White Sox

What is there to say about Rick Hahn that has not been said already?  He has routinely been mentioned as the top GM candidate over the past three or four years by Sports Illustrated, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus.  It appears almost every year he is offered an interview by prominent organizations and either winds up backing out of interviews or being given better terms/responsibilities within the White Sox organization.  He essentially runs the White Sox with directives handed out by Kenny Williams, so one would have to wonder whether he would find the Orioles a good destination if he had to answer to Buck as well as finding himself having to compete with a stacked AL East.  I think he certainly would be someone who Angelos would like as Hahn is very competent with running organizational duties.

Dan Jennings
Vice President, Player Personnel and Assistant General Manager, Florida Marlins

Jennings has been rumored for GM positions for about ten years now.  Last year he was a finalist in the Mets opening before losing out to Sandy Alderson.  Jennings is known as being skilled at scouting and would probably complement Buck Showalter quite well.  As a long time Florida employee, he is also well aware of Joe Jordan.  If the Orioles want more continuity along with revamping the organization to be more efficient, Jennings might be that guy and Jordan might be a great help to him.  The weakness here though is that this leaves no one in the front office in control who has experience running the day-to-day operations of the team.  Buck would need someone who is well skilled to be able to turn deals that Buck cannot do while sitting in the dugout.  I do think Jennings would be an interesting choice.

A.J. Preller
Senior Director, Player Personnel, Texas Rangers

This is my hope.  Preller is a high energy, at-all-costs type of GM and is quickly climbing through the ranks.  An often recounted story is that Preller took up Spanish while working for the Rangers in order to more freely communicate with people in Latin America, strengthening the Rangers' ability to acquire talent there.  He often is compared to his boss Jon Daniels with the same major concern: he is too inexperienced.  However, he has been employed at a high level on the baseball operations side and has been given high marks for the last several years.  The Orioles could be a good launching pad for him.  If Buck could act more like a Nolan Ryan and give Preller the freedom to fit the system to Buck's ordered shape then it might be a good pairing.  With or without Buck, Preller would be my choice.

Tyrone Brooks
Director of Baseball Operations, Pittsburgh Pirates

Brooks is an alumni of the University of Maryland, so you have some local roots here.  He has spent a lot of time working in the scouting and personnel departments for the Braves, Indians, and the Pirates.  He is another young GM prospect (at 34, I think, he is a year older than Preller) who would be willing to cede power to Buck in exchange for the chance to more directly shape an organization.  Brooks' is most known for his effort in social networking.  In 2009, he founded the Baseball Industry Network which tries to connect those interested in baseball operations to find those opportunities.  He also fits the Buck mold well as he is directly involved in high level roster management, such as the Pirates deadline deals for Ludwick and Lee.  He could be the combination of new blood, communication, and front office operation skills to be a successful GM.

Scott Proefrock
Assistant General Manager, Philadelphia Phillies

This would be the choice that makes sense to me if Andy MacPhail is involved in the hiring process.  Proefrock was a member of MacPhail's front office for several years.  It seems he left to go to the Phillies only due to them offering him a position with more responsibilities.  Proefrock has cut his teeth some more with the Phillies and would come back to Baltimore with familiarity of the current system in place, but also with new ideas and honed skills to manage the franchise.  Additionally, Proefrock's experience has largely been high level operations and contract decisions.  He is more business oriented than baseball oriented, which is something that could pair well with Buck.

My Ranking of These Five?

A.J. Preller
Rick Hahn
Dan Jennings
Tyrone Brooks
Scott Proefrock

I think Preller is a special talent.  I think Hahn could run things smoothly and am willing to blame many of that organizations' mistakes on Kenny Williams' apparent shoot from the hip strategy.  I am intrigued by Jennings' experience in scouting and developing players with Florida as well as there being some continuity with Joe Jordan.  Trust me, Jordan is not great, but he certainly is not a problem in Baltimore.  Brooks is an interesting wild card.  I find that intriguing, but am at the point here where I'd begin looking elsewhere.  Finally, I am not sure whether Proefrock has the skills to diagnose the Orioles' problems and be able to fix them.  Outside of that, I'm not sure to what extent a guy who is great at nuts and bolts is going to do for the organization.

I think that Proefrock, Preller, and Jennings are all options here.  I think it would also be accurate to say that those options are in that order.

The Trades of Buck Showalter (Part I): Arizona

There has been some rumblings that maybe Buck Showalter may be the Orioles General Manager next year.  I thought in light of that, it might be good to look at trades he made during his tenure with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers.  At these two locations it has been said that he personally carried a lot of weight when dealing players and also in free agency.  In Arizona, he was key also in stadium and uniform design.  He supposedly got around.  However, I just want to look at trades.  My first run through of this is quite generic.  I am merely comparing the career rWAR of each player from the moment of the trade until the end of said player's career.

Arizona Diamondbacks
1997
Mark Davis (-0.1 rWAR) to the Milwaukee Brewers for essentially nothing +0.1
Scott Winchester (-1.1) for Felix Rodriguez (6.2) +7.3
Matt Drews (minors), Gabe Alvarez (-0.8), and Joe Randa (16.8) for Travis Fryman (7.8) -8.2
Jesus Martinez (minors) for Devon White (5.3) +5.3
Chuck McElroy (2.0) for Harvey Pulliam (0) -2.0
Travis Fryman (7.8) and Tom Martin (-1.6) for Matt Williams (6.6) +0.4
Total = +2.9 rWAR

1998
Mike Bell (0.2) for Joe Lisio (minors) -0.2
Todd Erdos (-0.5) and Marty Janzen (0) for Andy Fox (-1.1) -0.6
Chris Jones (-0.6) for Ricky Pickett (-0.3) +0.3
Joe Lisio (minors) and Scott Brow (0) for Willie Banks (0.6) +0.6
Russ Springer (2.8) for Alan Embree (1.9) -0.9
Reid Cornelius (0.8) for Walt White (minors)
Willie Blair (-0.9) and Jorge Fabregas (-2.6) for Nelson Figueroa (1.4) and Bernard Gilkey (-1.0) +1.1
Hensley Muelens (0) for nothing 0
Jeff Suppan (15.0) for money -15.0
Alan Embree (1.8) for Dante Powell (-0.4) -2.2
Bob Wolcott (-0.2) for Bart Miadich (-0.1) +0.1
Felix Rodriguez (7.1) for Chris Van Rossum (minors) and Troy Brohan (0.0)
Karim Garcia (-0.8) for Luis Gonzalez (25.3) +26.1
Total = +9.3 WAR

1999
Paul Weichard (minors) and Jason Boyd (-1.8) for Tony Womack (2.1) +3.9
Ben Ford (-0.6) and Izzy Molina (0.0) for Darren Holmes (0.8) +1.4
Clint Sandowsky (-0.6) for John Frascatore (1.0) +1.6
Neil Weber (0) for Blake Mayo (minors) 0
Ron Calloway (-1.9) for John Pachot (minors) +1.9
Tony Batista (9.5) and John Frascatore (0.8) for Dan Plesac (2.2) -8.1
Abraham Nunez (-0.4), Vladimir Nunez (-1.1), and Brad Penny (21.4) for Matt Mantei (2.4) -17.5
Belvani Martinez (minors) for Lenny Harris (-0.8) -0.8
Dante Powell (0.1) for Luis Ordaz (-2.1) -2.2
Total = -19.8 WAR

2000
Josh McAfee (minors) for Brian Dallimore (0.4) +0.4
Lenny Harris (0) for Bill Pullsipher (-1.0) -1.0
Andy Fox (-0.4) for Danny Bautista (0.2) +0.6
Omar Daal (1.5), Nelson Figueroa (1.5), Travis Lee (4.4), and Vincente Padilla (9.4) for Curt Schilling (35.4) +18.6
Total = +18.6

In Summary
1997 - 2000
2.9 + 9.3 - 19.8 + 18.6 = 11.0 rWAR

In 2011 dollars, that rWAR is worth about 48 MM.  It probably translates to an extra win per year, which is not bad.  It certainly would fall within the realm of average to me, but we really do not have a population to compare this number with.  My next effort will be to evaluate his Rangers years.  Finally, I will use a different way to measure these trades by weighting the performance by year.

Joe Sheehan Chat and AL GM Rankings

Weekend editions are usually a good time to look back on the previous week. So, here are some Orioles focused quotes from the most recent Joe Sheehan chat:

[Mike Gonzalez' deal is] a very inexpensive contract, and the Orioles' bullpen has sucked for a while, so I don't hate the deal. It makes a hell of a lot more sense than signing Garret Atkins, who is 1) not very good and 2) redundant even at his potential skill set and role because of Ty Wigginton. Gonzalez can at least do something.

This echoes my sentiment. Gonzalez is a roughly average to below average deal. It is one that does not seem to make most of having the 3rd pick in the second round, but the value lost there is not great. The Garrett Atkins deal is a headscratcher and only makes sense in take the alternative is atrocious and he has some upside. Of course, sending Scott Moore out there and banking Miguel (Angel Sano) Jean with the difference would have been a better move in my opinion.

[Best GMs in the game are] Epstein, Cashman, Beane, [Zduriencik, and] . . . Daniels or Williams . . .

That puts Andy MacPhail at seventh or lower in the AL.

My ranking of GMs in the AL and some other Sheehan quotes after the jump.


Crawdaddy's list of best GMs in baseball:
1. Theo Epstein, Boston Red Sox - Best run program in the game. Domestic/International talent acquisition is stellar and free agents pickups are largely successful (outside of SS).
2. Bill Beane, Oakland Athletics - Slightly shaky lately and somewhat overrated . . . still the Gold Standard. Set with a misguided run last season, he was able to turn around and replenish his minors.
3. Jack Zduriencik, Seattle Mariners - Nearly every move he has made has been a steal. He wound up with Cliff Lee for less than the Yanks gave for Vazquez.
4. Andrew Freidman, Tampa Bay Rays - Competing in the AL East with a slim payroll and having arguably the best Minor League talent pool in the game.
5. Jon Daniels, Texas Rangers - Has turned things around greatly in the past couple years. He used to be rather awful. Great minors and solid MLB moves.
6. Dave Dombrowski, Detroit Tigers - Great turnover in the system, but he acquires top amateur talent and has made a few excellent trades (although somewhat blemished--Dontrelle Willis).
7. Brian Cashman, New York Yankees - He is difficult to evaluate, but Cashman's tenure has been much smoother since he was given more of a free reign to go after younger players. Money certainly helps though and they do not seem to embrace progressiveness like the BoSox.
8. Andy MacPhail, Baltimore Orioles - He has shown a lot of patience in getting generally solid returns in trades (Bedard and Sherrill deals) and an emerging proliferation of minor league talent. Free agent acquisitions do not seem incredibly shrewd and the team missed out on trading some of their players at the right time.
9. Mark Shapiro, Cleveland Indians - This might be too low for Shapiro. Solid assessment of high round minor league talent and young positional players. Poor drafting (to be kind) and a near complete lack of evaluating pitching. Kerry Wood acquisition was expensive for the team and did not address starting pitching.
10. Kenny Williams, Chicago White Sox - Williams is a gambler who seems to make moves using his gut much more than his head. When he had a set of supernaturally healthy and good starters . . . it worked. He has had trouble getting back to that. The Peavy and Rios deals could set this team well. The Teahan deal is perplexing. The outfield is often peculiarly addressed. Has the feeling of a rotisserie team.
11. Bill Smith, Minnesota Twins - This will probably be a rather controversial placement. Smith though has been underachieving for years. His Santana deal paled in comparison to what the Erik Bedard deal was. Solutions to add offense to the squad were met with continual bouts of failure. MLB level moves look quite poor. The team excels with its amateur scouting. I am unsure how much Smith is involved with that.
12. Tony Reagins, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - They have not done much to replace the massive amount of talent they had. This includes at an amateur levels and at a pro level. Also seems to have a tendency to hold onto prospects for too long. Not much was gained from Tex's departure.
13. Alex Anthopoulos, Toronto Blue Jays - Not much to grade him on, but the Jays did seem to get value closer to what the O's got for Bedard than what the Twins got for Santana. So he easily rates above the fourteenth selection whom I am at a loss to name a single good move.
14. Dayton Moore, Kansas City Royals - Two words: The Process.

[One of the three worst moves of the offseason is the signing of] Garret Atkins, because the Orioles already had a fat, slow, pseudo-corner-guy with a huge platoon split who hits into lots of DPs.

Yeah, Sheehan is not fond of this one. Nor am I.

That is all we have for today.

GM Family Tree Offseason 2010

Knowing Major League Baseball to be the incestuous place that it is, here is the Family Tree for the GMs. For space considerations, I did kind of eliminate a few brief interactions and maybe accidentally omitted larger ones. Resources included Baseball America and my memory. The former is much stronger of a resource than the latter.