Blueprint For The 2018 Orioles (Option #3): Shake It Up

Before we get going, be sure to check out the rules of the game, the BORAS contract numbers, and the blueprints my fellow Depot residents have already posted. Did that? Ok, good. So let's talk about this off season for the Orioles. In many ways, 2018 already feels like the end of an era. It is possible that, after next season, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, Buck Showalter, and Dan Duquette (among others) will no longer be a part of the Orioles' organization. Those men have been integral, in one way or another, in turning around a team mired in 14 straight losing seasons with little reason to think there wouldn't be a 15th. Though the Orioles have not attained the ultimate goal of winning a World Series, and indeed have only won a single playoff series during that time, that the team became even highly competitive is an outcome O's fans would have yearned for around, oh, 2008. It has been a very good run, but barring some sort of dramatic shift in organizational philosophy the team is almost certain to look very different in 2019 than it has for the past half-decade.

In my mind, this should actually be considered a good thing. My template for the Orioles would be to start a rebuild this off season while attempting to sign Machado and Jonathan Schoop to long-term contract extensions. That is problematic for this exercise, however, because trades are the only way to actually complete a rebuild. More to the point, however, I know that the Orioles are not going to do this. Every single thing the team has said has been with an eye on competing in 2018, so unless all of that is just a major smokescreen it is more than safe to say that the Orioles will likely approach this off season in the same way they have approached pretty much every off season under Dan Duquette: avoid huge money free agent deals for pitchers, work around the edges of the roster to build depth, and sign one-dimensional sluggers for triple what anyone else is offering. Ok, that last one might not happen this year. While I don't think this is necessarily the correct path forward for the franchise, I'm very certain that it is the path the team will take. I also do think that it is possible to make this team a contender next season, if probably not a serious threat to win it all. 

Contract Extensions and Options

As a reminder, we have set the projected payroll at $155 million. The Orioles have $53 million committed in 2018, but the big money is tied up in arbitration with seven players being projected to earn a total of $55 million. Given the relatively tight budget after arbitration and the need to significantly upgrade the rotation, major contract extensions are basically out of the question at this point.

The two easiest calls on the roster are the player options on JJ Hardy and Wade Miley. Hardy has a $2 million buyout, but there's just no way the Orioles can pick up his $14 million deal. Miley, who was in the conversation for worst pitchers in the American League last season, has a $12 million option with a $500,000 buyout, so enjoy that cool half a mil, Wade.

Controversies

Nate outlined the case for non-tendering Zach Britton, and in principle, I agree. The preferable course would obviously be to trade him, but given that the Orioles didn't find a suitable package in July and his price has almost surely only gone down since then, it seems likely that Britton will be on the team in 2018. If I were running the team I'd probably non-tender Britton and maybe even attempt to re-sign him, but I highly doubt the O's will consider this. As a result, I am going to tender Britton his deal for his projected $12.2 million. 

Where I will break with orthodoxy is with Mark Trumbo. The no-trade rule hurts me here, though that would be an avenue I would aggressively pursue if it were available. Trumbo was really, really bad this season, producing a nearly incomprehensible -1.2 fWAR and seeing his power evaporate. Trumbo was 20% worse than the league average hitter and provides negative value defensively. While it's certainly possible that he will bounce back to being around a league average hitter again it also seems possible that he's just done. 2017 was the second season in the last four in which Trumbo produced a negative WAR, and even in his "good" years he's barely a league average player. Additionally, he clogs up the DH/corner OF spots that would be better served by other players.

So, my hot take: DFA Mark Trumbo. I know this is very unlikely to happen and it flies in the face of how the Orioles operate (see Ubaldo Jimenez for more information) but sometimes you need to just admit you made a mistake and move on. Trumbo's contract, in a year in which the market for sluggers cratered, was such a mistake and having him on the roster limits flexibility in addition to having to play him almost every day. This doesn't save any money, of course, but it does open up a needed roster spot.

With all that out of the way, our total payroll left is $42.6 million.

Starting Rotation

What, you thought I'd start with backup catcher? Obviously, the rotation was the biggest issue facing the team in 2017, as it posted the worst ERA of any Orioles team in history. Most of the main culprits will not be coming back in my blueprint, as I bid farewell to Jeremy Hellickson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Miley. This does mean, though, that three rotation spots need to be filled. The big fish are Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish, but I think it's very unlikely the Orioles pursue either for a variety of reasons. What I think is more likely is that the Orioles go after slightly better than average guys that can provide solid innings in the 3/4 spots in the rotation. The big acquisition here should be Alex Cobb, with a BORAS projection of 3 years, $31 million. Cobb has had trouble staying healthy during his career, which should limit his salary upside, but he is a very good to elite groundball pitcher that consistently beats his mediocre peripherals. He doesn't strike out many hitters and his home run rate spiked in 2017, but the price and fit work well for the O's.

In addition, the Orioles should make a run at Tyler Chatwood, with a BORAS projection of 4/42. This is a more significant commitment than Cobb despite Cobb having the bigger name recognition, but Chatwood is in many ways a younger, healthier version. His 2017 numbers certainly wouldn't predict this kind of contract commitment but there are some pretty good arguments that those numbers don't represent his true talent. First, he pitched in Colorado. At home, he was basically what Chris Tillman was this year: a tire fire. On the road, however, Chatwood was excellent, posting a 3.49 ERA in 77 road innings. While Oriole Park is not exactly a pitcher's haven, it is certainly no Coors Field, so I'd expect a stronger performance in 2017 as long as he gets out of Denver. Second, his walk and homer rates spiked but he didn't give up harder contact and he generated similar swing rates to the rest of his career. While I don't know if I'd call this a fluke I also don't think it's necessarily something that will automatically repeat. Like Cobb, Chatwood excels at generating ground balls, and at age 27 there is potentially room for growth in the strikeout department. This is a somewhat risky move, but there's a lot to like about Chatwood outside of Colorado.

Finally, I'd take a flyer on Derek Holland (BORAS 1/1.5). Holland is a lefty starter, and the Orioles have consistently said they really want one (which is a whole other discussion, but maybe another time). Holland was, well, bad as a White Sox this year, but that works in our favor as his market will probably not be robust. Additionally, there are some things to like, as most of his rate stats other than walks and homers (this is becoming a disturbing thing) stayed mostly constant. I don't think Holland is good, but he can be a 5th guy making a tenth of what Wade Miley would have made so I'll call that a win. The Orioles do have other internal options like Gabriel Ynoa and Miguel Castro, but I'd give Holland a shot to win that job out of spring.

Amount Remaining: $22.6 million

Bullpen

The bullpen was good last season, if not quite as good as it's been in the past, and better health from Zach Britton could be a huge improvement on its own. I leave the bullpen essentially unchanged from 2017, with Ynoa as a long man/swing starter. I personally do not believe in Miguel Castro and think he's in for serious regression in 2018, but the Orioles very clearly like him and I doubt they would send him to AAA, so he stays as the 6th inning guy. The one change I'd make is to replace Donnie Hart with Tanner Scott. Scott had a nice year in Bowie in 2017 and he brings a big-time strikeout arm to the pen, something the Orioles lack outside of Mychal Givens. I'd also take a look at non-roster guys, but there are no major bullpen additions in my blueprint, with Givens, Ynoa, Castro, Scott, and Richard Bleier making a combined $2.7 million.

Amount Remaining: $19.9 million

Infield

Most of the infield is set, with Machado, Schoop, Tim Beckham, and Chris Davis all returning. At catcher, we are assuming that Wellington Castillo will not pick up his 2018 option, and as a result will leave as a free agent. Castillo was solid enough, but there are too many holes to fill on the club to spend anything significant at the catcher position, especially because I'll be calling up top prospect Chance Sisco. While there are still some questions about his defense, his bat has the potential to be above average for a catcher, and it's not as though Castillo was a defensive whiz either. This will probably mean that Caleb Joseph sees more significant playing time this season, but with his offensive improvement in 2017 and his generally solid defense that seems fine.

My big acquisition for the infield will be Eric Sogard, with a BORAS projection of 2/17. Ryan Flahery has been the utility infielder since the dawn of time, but his usefulness to the team has declined dramatically, culminating in just 23 games played in 2017. Sogard brings a decent bat and above average defense and played second, third, short, and left field for the Brewers last season while racking up 1.9 fWAR. He probably had a career year offensively, but you don't need your utility infielder to post a .393 OBP like Sogard did in 2017. If he only produces his career average of .245/.341/.348 that would a huge bonus, and his left-handed bat gives the Orioles more flexibility as well. Given that there was some discussion about how various players may have run out of gas in September, Sogard playing 4-5 times a week at different positions could be huge.

Amount remaining: $11.5 million

Outfield

Given my "this will definitely, totally happen" release of Mark Trumbo, there are a lot of interesting options in the outfield. Adam Jones will obviously be a big part of that, but given his defensive struggles in center and overall concerns about losing a step it may be time to move Jones over to a corner. While I don't doubt he would be resistant to this on a personal level, he could be sold on it as a way to save wear and tear on his body as he looks to get his last significant contract after 2018. Jones was actually quite good offensively this year and I think he would be at least average in left field defensively, so I'm making the move. Trey Mancini had a nice year and was better in the field than many thought he would be, but the metrics hated him and improving the outfield defense should be a priority this season. With Trumbo no longer on the team, I'll move Trey over to full time DH.

Right field was manned by a rotating, mediocre at best crew in 2017, but the Orioles have a top 50 prospect who tore up the minors who happens to play in right. So, yeah, maybe let's give Austin Hays a shot. Anthony Santander has to be on the team for at least the first 44 days of the season, and once he goes down the O's could bring up Joey Rickard to replace him, though perhaps Santander does enough to stick around.

This leaves a pretty big issue in center field, of course, which I will solve by signing Jarrod Dyson to a 2 year, $16 million deal. This is clearly below his BORAS projection of 2/25, but given that he is a platoon guy whose main value comes from defense I'm comfortable lowering the projection a bit (look to Luis Valbuena and even Pedro Alvarez last year to see how being a platoon player impacts your market). Indeed, Dyson got a paltry one year, $2.8 million deal last off season despite coming off an arguably better 2016 than 2017.

The big draw, here, is Dyson's defense, which consistently grades out as elite, as well as his speed and baserunning ability. Both defense and baserunning prowess were in short supply in the Oriole outfield last year, and Dyson's skill set would work well in an offense that desperately needs some diversification. Since he is a platoon player, however, I think the O's need one more piece in the outfield, so I'll bring in Peter Bourjos to serve as the right-handed side of the center field platoon. He made $1.5 million in 2017 and I'll give him that same salary for 2018. Bourjos was having a decent season for Tampa Bay before an awful September and brings a similar profile to the table as Dyson, so he is worth a little more than a league minimum type guy. In combination, there's a possibility of +3 WAR center field platoon.

Amount remaining: $0

2017/2018 Off Season Moves

Tyler Chatwood, SP: 4 years, $42 million
Alex Cobb, SP: 3 years, $31 million
Eric Sogard, IF: 2 years, $17 million
Jarrod Dyson, CF: 2 years, $16 million
Peter Bourjos, OF: 1 year, $1.5 million
Derek Holland, SP: 1 year, $1.5 million

2018 Roster

C:  Caleb Joseph
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Jonathan Schoop
3B: Manny Machado
SS: Tim Beckham
LF: Adam Jones
CF: Jarrod Dyson
RF: Austin Hays
DH: Trey Mancini
Bench: Chance Sisco, Peter Bourjos, Anthony Santander, Eric Sogard

SP: Dylan Bundy
SP: Kevin Gausman
SP: Alex Cobb
SP: Tyler Chatwood
SP: Derek Holland

Bullpen: Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Darren O'Day, Richard Bleier, Miguel Castro, Gabriel Ynoa, Tanner Scott

Final Thoughts

In a vacuum, this would be a fairly underwhelming off season for a team that finished in last place in 2017. That said, what the Orioles have long thrived on is the ability to avoid playing really bad players. They may not have had stars at every position, but the successful Orioles teams of this era rarely gave replacement level guys significant amounts of playing time. In 2017, the Orioles had five offensive players who played relatively significant roles that posted fewer than 1 fWAR. On the starting pitching side, there were four. Simply bringing in players with decent floors would improve the team, and subtracting Trumbo, Miley, Hellickson, Jimenez, and Tillman gives the O's a good chance of enduring fewer of the disastrous outcomes we saw this past season.

I'm not sure this restructured team would be a legitimate World Series threat, but if you squint, you could imagine Machado bouncing back to his +7 WAR self, Chris Davis getting back to being at least somewhat of a threat, progression from Gausman and Bundy, better health for Zach Britton, and suddenly this could be a team with legitimate playoff aspirations. Even if this isn't the off season I'd want if I had my way (and, really, everyone should just listen to me all the time) I think it's about as good as one could expect given the budget constraints facing the team.

Blueprint For The 2018 Orioles (Option #2): Upgrade The Rotation, Or Nothing

Here's the second option in our offseason blueprint series. If you haven't done so yet, make sure to  read Jon's introduction to the series along with Nate's Option #1 post from Monday. Remember, we're working with the assumption of a $155 million team payroll.

Current roster decisions

For me, this part is pretty straightforward. We're assuming that Welington Castillo declines his $7 million player option (and I'm fine with a Caleb Joseph/Chance Sisco catcher combination), which only leaves a couple of decisions. Passing on J.J. Hardy's team option is a no-brainer, and Wade Miley's disastrous 2017 season forced him into that category as well. Bringing Miley back for $11.5 million - the difference between his $12 million option and his $0.5 million buyout - wouldn't be the worst decision ever, but it's time to move on. The Orioles/Miley experiment did not work.

I'm also offering all seven arbitration-eligible players: Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, Caleb Joseph, and Tim Beckham. I'd bring back Ryan Flaherty and Craig Gentry on minimum deals for $0.8 million (or something close to that). After accounting for everything - guaranteed contracts, buyouts, and arbitration raises - that'll leave about $42-43 million to use in free agency. Now the fun begins.

Free agency - starting pitchers

This current O's roster is far from one that only has one or two holes. There are things that must be addressed, including upgrading team depth. Having $44 million or so is probably not enough to address all of those issues sufficiently, but we can try. So let's just work our way through this.

There is no question that the biggest need for the Orioles is at starting pitcher. Any series of offseason moves that does not include multiple rotation additions should be considered a massive failure. As a reminder, here's how bad the O's rotation was this past season:

- AL worst in total innings pitched (846)
- AL worst ERA (5.70) by a half-run
- AL's second-lowest FIP (5.23)
- Sixth-highest K/9 (7.74), second-highest BB/9 (3.74)
- Only two regular starters with ERAs under 4.70: Dylan Bundy (4.24) and Gausman (4.68). Others ranged from 5.61 (Miley) to 8.12 (Chris Tillman). The average starter ERA in the AL was 4.54.

With that in mind, here are the pitchers I'd sign (using Jon's updated BORAS projections):

Alex Cobb: 3 years, $31.2 million ($10.4M AAV)
Lance Lynn: 2 years, $18.4 million ($9.2M AAV)
Jason Vargas: 2 years, $17.2 million ($8.6M AAV)

I know these blueprints are individual, and we have the flexibility to do whatever we want within the set guidelines. But I also try to keep them relatively realistic, keeping in mind things the O's are likely or unlikely to do. When the Orioles signed Ubaldo Jimenez in 2014 for four years and $50 million, he became the most expensive pitcher in franchise history. There's no way the Orioles ended up being very happy about either the length of that deal or the total. I would be surprised if they signed another pitcher this offseason for close to what it took to land Jimenez, especially since it's a necessity that they add multiple starters. That puts Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta out of reach.

Still, even though they might not get four-year deals, it's not like these three starters are without risk. In fact, Cobb, Lynn, and Vargas all had Tommy John surgery in 2015. That can't be something the Orioles would be thrilled about. But then again, there's risk for every free agent starting pitcher, and those previous injuries will likely help to keep their contract value down. Orioles ownership is also confident in the team's vaunted physical process being able to identify areas of concern. Love it or hate it, it has a pretty decent track record.

Of the three, Vargas is my least favorite choice, but I also think the O's will add a lefty (that's why they made the move for Wade Miley last season). Regardless, Cobb (2.4), Lynn (3.1), and Vargas (3.8) all had a better bWAR than Gausman (1.9) last season. Of the three, only Cobb was below Bundy (2.7). There's nothing amazing here, but there is improvement.

I'll admit, some of the contract numbers here seem low. It would be pretty surprising if the Orioles were able to upgrade the rotation with three quality veterans for $28.2 million AAV. Still, sometimes feelings can throw things off, and ignoring injury history and overestimating value can inflate perceptions. Jon has also discussed how well the model has performed for pitchers, so while the numbers seem low, they could end up being pretty accurate.

With three competent starters added to Bundy and Gausman, the Orioles won't have to rely on Miguel Castro and Gabriel Ynoa for the No. 5 starter job. Those two look much better as rotation depth or bullpen options anyway.

Free agency - outfielder

With about $16 million left to spend, the Orioles should look to add a proven outfielder with a left-handed bat. With Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, and Tim Beckham, the O's could use another lefty to help balance out the lineup. Some options include Jarrod Dyson, Jon Jay, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Carlos Gonzalez.

Of that group, I'd lean towards Granderson (one year, $12.7 million). As Nate noted, Jay is intriguing (as is Dyson), and I'd be fine with adding either. But I also think I'd begin the year with Austin Hays as the starting right fielder, meaning Granderson would be used in a more complementary role. He'll be 37 in March, and he is probably reaching the point in his career when he can't handle a full-time workload.

Fortunately, there will be plenty of room for him. Hays should play a lot if he's on the roster, but he could struggle and eventually be sent down. Adam Jones will also need time to sit some, and Hays could occasionally shift to center while Granderson handles right field. Granderson could still play some center field if needed, but he'd be better utilized in a corner. Plus, even with Mark Trumbo (likely) still around, he shouldn't find his name in the lineup every day, especially if he keeps hitting like he did this past season. That means there will be some DH opportunities available.

Anthony Santander will surely find himself on the O's bench for 44 more days during the 2018 season until he meets his Rule 5 requirements, but then he'll likely be sent down and the O's can fill that spot with a speedy/defense type like Craig Gentry or Joey Rickard (I'd favor Gentry).

Free agency - infielder

If you look around the majors, there aren't a lot of appealing options for infield depth. It's not like the O's are in a position to spend a bunch on a bench infielder, but they are in a good position of not having to worry about signing a starting infielder. That will likely all change very soon with Machado, but for now, they're set.

O's beat reporters keep pushing the idea that Steve Wilkerson could be the utility infielder next season, and maybe that ends up working out. But even if that happens, I don't see the harm of inviting someone like Ryan Flaherty to spring training and seeing if he can stay healthy. He's not a good hitter, but he can play all the infield positions reasonably well. He's a replacement-level player, and that's what the O's would be paying for.

Recapping the signings

Alex Cobb: 3 years, $31.2 million ($10.4M AAV)
Lance Lynn: 2 years, $18.4 million ($9.2M AAV)
Jason Vargas: 2 years, $17.2 million ($8.6M AAV)
Curtis Granderson: 1 year, $12.7 million ($12.7M AAV)
Ryan Flaherty: Non-roster invite, 1 year, $800,000 ($0.8 AAV)
Craig Gentry: Non-roster invite, 1 year, $800,000 ($0.8 AAV)

This is a little under $44 million, which is fine in case it takes some extra funds to bring in three starting pitchers. When it comes down to it, the Orioles either need to upgrade the rotation in a significant way, or they should stop saying they're trying to compete next season.

After everything, the O's end up with this 25-man roster:

C: Caleb Joseph
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Jonathan Schoop
SS: Tim Beckham
3B: Manny Machado
LF: Trey Mancini
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Austin Hays
DH: Mark Trumbo
Bench: Curtis Granderson, Chance Sisco, Ryan Flaherty, Anthony Santander

SP: Dylan Bundy
SP: Alex Cobb
SP: Lance Lynn
SP: Jason Vargas
SP: Kevin Gausman

RP: Zach Britton
RP: Darren O'Day
RP: Brad Brach
RP: Mychal Givens
RP: Miguel Castro
RP: Richard Bleier
RP: Donnie Hart/Gabriel Ynoa

2017/18 Baltimore Orioles Blueprint Series

Just like every other offseason, the Depot will kick things off with our long running annual blueprint series.  A subset of our writers will tackle the club and try to do what they think is best for the Orioles while staying under the budget.  Additionally, we are asking you, our dear readers, to feel free to submit your own plans using our rules to CamdenDepot@gmail.com for me to consider.  Once everyone has posted or emailed their ideas, I will act as Lord Supreme GM and make my final determination.

Some rules:

1) No trades. Trades are hard to predict and these exercises seem to be a bit optimistic about returns.  We have recently had someone state that Mark Trumbo and Zach Britton could be dealt for Julio Teheran and Matt Kemp.  I am unsure how exactly that works for the Braves in any way.  That said, whoever would have imagined that the Orioles would have been able to deal Yovanni Gallardo for Seth Smith.  Now that did not exactly work, but it was at least a better fit for the club than Gallardo was.

2) 155 MM payroll.  Payrolls are hard to figure out.  Sources I have vary from 152 to 185.  The reason why those numbers fluctuate so much is due to bonus clauses, buyouts, deferred money, partial payments in trades, and roster bonuses from veteran MiL signings.  From my terribly incomplete count, I found about 5 MM in potential roster bonuses from MiL signings last year, which is somewhat astounding.  So, we decided to go on the lean side of the payroll tallies and choose an aesthetically clean 155 MM.

3) Contracted Money (53.33 MM)

• Chris Davis 17 MM (ignoring 6 MM deferred)
• Adam Jones 17.33 MM (ignoring performance bonuses)
• Mark Trumbo 11 MM (ignoring 1.5 MM deferred)
• Darren O'Day 8 MM (ignoring 1 MM deferred)

4) Choose Your Options (2.5 MM to 26 MM)

• J.J. Hardy 2 MM buyout (or 14 MM club option; ignoring performance bonuses)
• Wade Miley 0.5 MM buyout (or 12 MM club option)
• Welington Castillo PLAYER OPTION (7 MM 2018 salary, assume he declines)

5) Arbitration Tender or Not (0 MM to 55.1 MM)

• Manny Machado (17.3 MM)
• Zach Britton (12.2 MM)
• Jonathan Schoop (9.1 MM)
• Kevin Gausman (6.8 MM)
• Brad Brach (5.2 MM)
• Tim Beckham (3.1 MM)
• Caleb Joseph (1.4 MM)

6) Peculiarities (1.5 MM)

• Dylan Bundy (est. 1.5 MM, non-arbitration inflated salary)
• Chris Johnson's 1 MM buyout is from an old contract, not current one.

7) Assume all other non-arbitration players at 0.55 MM.

8) Fill up only the 25 man roster.

9) Use BORAS contract projections for pitchers and position players even though some look unrealistic in our eyes.  If a player is not listed, comment on this post and I will run the numbers.

10) Contract money cannot be deferred and must be evenly distributed by years.

Let me know if you all who wish to contribute have any questions.

To Dan Duquette with Love: Camden Depot's 2017 Roster Blueprint

Congratulations to the 2016 Orioles on their Wild Card placement.  I somehow lost track of them some time after that announcement.  I am sure it all worked out great.  I heard something about a homegrown Orioles and couple Orioles by trade managed to win themselves the World Series. Please do not bore me with the specifics because it is time to move on to 2017.

Moving on is a good theme to grad hold of, but not to completely embrace.  This post was originally rather extensive and broke down the roster in many ways.  I was far along in statistical modeling that suggested that the baseline talent the current currently has is around 82 wins and pretty much any way you jumble a budget of 160 MM without trades gets you up to 83 to 85 wins.  In other words, this is a mediocre team as is and can rise to fringe playoff contender.

Below is a link collection of all of our blueprints:
Blueprints

What we have in mind for Qualifying Offers ran the gamut of no offers to offering both Matt Wieters and Mark Trumbo.  Our writers generally thought a QO on Trumbo only was the right move.  I polled our audience and they were split on offering it to Trumbo or offering it to both Trumbo and Wieters.  Before the Orioles announced, I noted that the final view of our site by me would be a QO to Trumbo.  Why?  I think he is worth the QO to another club as a first baseman, but is not worth a QO to the Orioles as a corner outfielder or designated hitter.  In other words, the bet is that he is wanted because it is a rather poor deal for what opportunities the Orioles have for him.

Saying no to Wieters is about how his profile is rather limited.  His defensive aptitude has been reduced as his athleticism decreases with age and injury.  His framing ability is pretty average and the rotation needs a plus glove there.  Finally, the offense just does not look like a package that can deliver a plus bat behind the plate.  The ability is their, but it just repeatedly fails in game.  Last year, I said it was smart to offer him the QO, but with another year in the books I find whatever hope of him getting it together at the plate is simply dreaming on old scouting reports.  The club is not set up all that well behind the plate with Caleb Joseph and some mish mash, but it is preferable to me than to go in deep again with a player who has shown that he probably is not who he was five years ago.

Non tender suggestions kicked around the same players, but the only discussion of merit were on Ryan Flaherty and Vance Worley.  Flaherty has a dependable glove at multiple positions, but has progressively become a strong arm version of Brandon Fahey.  In the last year of arbitration and without options, his versatility on the bench is not as inspiring as it once was.  Vance Worley was a depth addition last year from the Pirates.  He pitched well in the pen, but showed on several occasions that no he is not a starter.  This club needs long arms to start in a pinch and more left handed options.  Worley simply is a bit redundant and not very versatile.  Ideally, the club wants someone with options in that slot.  Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson should be given more looks or someone else coming in from a southpaw persuasion.  I would non tender both of them.

This leaves the club with about 16 MM for contracts.  After considering the blueprints and the fan polls, I actually come in right with the readership.  The club should offer Jason Castro a 2/20 contract.  He is a platoon player who fits in with Caleb Joseph's right handed bat.  Castro is one of the best pitch framers in the game and would provide some relief for the starting rotation that often needs the call on the edge.  Second, the club should bring someone back in the Michael Bourn mode.  He should be available for a few million on a one year deal.  He has versatility and potential to fill in at all positions with more aptitude than Joey Rickard, who should be in a firm platoon with Hyun Soo Kim.

With the few million left, I was in a position to either go with the upside veteran Steve Pearce or with a hopeful look to the future in Jae Gyun Hwang.  Pearce, with his arm injury, is a big question mark in the field and, with a delayed start to his offseason, also at the plate.  Upside is that he can really mash left handers when he is on as he was in 2014 and for the Rays last season.  Hwang is an unknown at the plate and probably not all that great.  He has the defense for third base and could potentially backup a corner outfield position.  I think this is really a coin flip, but I would lean to Hwang for defensive options with Pearce as a backup.

In the end, this club is around an 85 win team.  Really, with any of the blueprints, you find a very similar end point.  The reality is that you have several different approaches to get to a similar place.  You can have your pick.

In a greater sense, it seems we are at the end of an era.  The club has been well positioned on the Major League level.  Dan Duquette has managed to get the most out of this club with a strong core made of a few upcoming players, veterans at the backend or downside of their peaks, and underrated pitchers.  There is no cavalry.  There is no plan B.  The minors are barren and the infrastructure in place is not designed to quickly develop talent at that level.  The turnip is pressed and there simply is not much left in the system.

This leaves us really in a bit of a quandary.  Does it make sense and keep going down the path to get everything in as best shape as possible to pull in a championship?  Or, does it makes sense to ignore the championship and try to develop the most talent possible?  That question of Pearce vs. Hwang points to that.  Do you go with the guy who has a better chance to be helpful in 2017 or do you go with the guy who has a better chance being useful in 2018 or 2019?

For years, Orioles fans have been told of a gloom and doom window.  Dan Duquette chose to ignore the window and max out the club.  He was right in hindsight.  However, his success does not mean that windows are a fantasy.  They exist and they feel ever present.  The better question is can we truly see those windows or can windows be perpetually open with fringe talent acquisition like Kim, Trumbo, Pearce, and Cruz.  Does it matter whether a minor league system is bereft of talent.  Is the Orioles front office truly smarter than everyone else and is the coaching staff miles beyond the competition.

I, for one, have no belief in Orioles Exceptionalism.  I find the Oriole Way to be no different than other era related terms like Dodger Baseball.  Those grand ideas were really the ideas of Connie Mack, Branch Rickey, and Paul Richards.  Their ideas germinated from elsewhere.  The current club has no Baltimore lineage through those souls.  It is just baseball.

Anyway, this article was to be posted over a week ago.  I got sick.  I was stuck on a bed.  Time passed and baseball decisions have happened.  As a liberal, this past week was not a statistical shock, but an emotional one.  I find my baseball thoughts bleeding into my political philosophies.  I have shoehorned similarities between the Orioles and the sweeping losses in the election for the Democrats.  That is, the democrats had given up the denominational flexibility needed for whole government rule in order to put all effort into grabbing the presidency.  When that failed, barely, there was no safety net.  The party has put little effort in broadening the base beyond abstract progressiveness.  They simply were riding out the leadership of past days.

I see the current Orioles in a similar position.  They have had success, but they are not truly trying to cultivate the next wave of players.  They are riding out the current wave and hoping it lasts a little longer than it might seem.  At some point, the wave ends and a change needs to happen.  As with life, the difficult action is being able to know when that change needs to be implemented before you sink under the waves.  Maybe the Orioles have time to kick the can to the mid-season point to see where they stand.  Maybe they will be bold enough if their fortune is not smiling to make that next step.  I think the current wave should still be ridden, but ideas like dealing Zach Britton should be pondered and well-considered.

This club needs new life, but it is not dead yet.

Blueprint For The 2017 Orioles (Option 6): The Reasonable Retool

I'll preface my plan by saying the word that many Orioles fans have pushed to the backs of their brains, ignoring in the hopes that it will go away: rebuild. At some point, this team's run will end — a small-ish market club like the O's can't move up to a $200 million payroll, and the farm system looks astonishingly barren. With that said, Baltimore still has some great players on its roster, and a solid supporting cast as well. A few minor moves, and this club could make some noise in 2017. It won't eliminate the need for an eventual teardown, but at this point, we'd all be fine with kicking the can down the road for another year.

Let's start with the basics. The current salary commitments for the 2017 Orioles stand at $95.9 million, according to BP's compensation data; along with the $50.1 million in arbitration projections from MLB Trade Rumors, that brings the probable payroll to $146 million at a minimum, plus an additional $5 million or so for the minimum-salary guys (Mychal Givens, Joey Rickard, and the like). With a cap at $160 million for 2017 — a modest increase from 2016's payroll of $147.7 million — that gives us $9 million to play around with. Can we make this club a contender? Let's find out!

Qualifying Offers

The Orioles, as you probably know, have three free agents of note: Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters, and Pedro Alvarez. The latter two clearly don't warrant a QO — Wieters accepted his last offseason before declining in 2016, while Alvarez remains a one-dimensional player whose one dimension (hitting righties) isn't all that noteworthy. Each of them will sign elsewhere for less than the $17.2 million a QO would net them.

Trumbo, by contrast, presents a dilemma. Had he become a free agent at the All-Star Break, we'd obviously stick a QO on him — the first-half version of Trumbo earned 2.1 fWAR and was on his way to a breakout year. But then the second half happened, and Trumbo ended the campaign with just 2.2 fWAR to his name. Assuming his true talent lies somewhere between his first-half wRC+ of 143 and his second-half wRC+ of 98, we'll tender him a QO, in the hopes that he'll get greedy and try his fortunes elsewhere. If he takes it, that pretty much seals our fate for 2017; to have any shot at contending beyond next year, though, we need draft picks, which means we need declined QOs.

Non-tenders and trades

Let's dive into that $50.1 million in projected arbitration contracts. Can we shave that down at all? For starters, letting Vance Worley, Ryan Flaherty, and T.J. McFarland walk would cut $5.7 million off. Worley bluffed his way to a 3.53 ERA in 86.2 innings; underneath that, he had some of the most underwhelming peripherals in the majors. Flaherty and McFarland don't add much beyond competence at shortstop and a questionable ability to retire lefties, respectively. These guys wouldn't do much for the 2017 squad as members of it; with them gone, we up our budget to $14.7 million.

And although our benevolent overlord Jon doesn't permit it in this scenario, we should try — for the second straight year — to trade Zach Britton and his $11.4 million projected salary. As phenomenal as he pitched in 2016, that probably represents his ceiling, which means he'll never have more value than right now. In Brad Brach, they already have a dominant reliever they can make their closer, while Mychal Givens and Darren O'Day should be able to hold down the middle innings. And plenty of teams, such as the Rangers and Giants, will (a) want to contend in 2017, (b) need an upgrade to their bullpen to contend, and (c) thus be willing to pay a pretty penny for a lights-out closer. Getting a swingman, a bench bat, and a few prospects in return for two years of Britton would save the O's a lot of money, which they could re-invest in an area of greater need.

Infield

Here, the Orioles are pretty much set — in terms of starters, at least. Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, J.J. Hardy, and Manny Machado combine to form one of the best infields in baseball, and all will return for 2017. But what about depth? Without Flaherty returning, who will step up if a member of that foursome hits the DL.

While the best option would probably be re-signing Steve Pearce, he'll likely demand a multi-year deal that Baltimore can't afford. Instead, I have a less sexy yet still satisfying alternative: Erick Aybar. Jon expects Aybar to receive a two-year, $21 million contract, but I can't imagine his market will be that sunny after a -1.2-fWAR 2016. I think he'll come to the Orioles for one year and $6 million, hoping to rebuild his career and cash in next offseason.

If Aybar flopped in 2016, why would the Orioles want him? Well, he probably won't get any worse than that. His strikeout rate spiked to a full-season career high last year, and if that regresses toward his career norm, he'll improve upon his ghastly 65 wRC+. Although he's never hit for power or taken walks, with a clean bill of health, he has reasonable speed and thus a good BABIP. Combine that with his ability to play any infield position, and he's the best free-agent fit for the O's.

Nor will Aybar occupy the bench alone. The Orioles have a pair of Quad-A players who could contribute in limited 2017 roles: Trey Mancini and Christian Walker. Each can play first base, and both should succeed against lefties, at the very least. Hopefully for the team, none of these three will see significant playing time; if they do, however, it won't doom the club.

And with regards to catchers: Despite his horrendous 2016 showing, I still believe in Caleb Joseph. Why? He doesn't need to hit very well to earn his keep, because he consistently ranks as one of the best pitch framers in baseball. Over 2014 and 2015, he posted a wRC+ of 80 in 630 plate appearances, yet thanks to his receiving ability, he earned 4.0 WARP in that span. A Joseph-Francisco Pena tandem won't win any awards, but a rebound from the former will give the Orioles a dependable defensive backstop.

Outfield

Where the infield has certainty, the outfield has uncertainty, and a lot of it. While Hyun Soo Kim and Adam Jones are under contract for 2017, the former might need to stay in a platoon, and the latter struggled with injuries and slumps this year. Even if we count on both of them to start for the entire year — which this cash-strapped club will have to do — what do we do about the yawning chasm in right field?

The answer: Ink Carlos Gomez. Jon's model predicts a frigid market for the former Ranger, pinning his value at two years and $25 million. For a player who excelled with his new employer and can play quasi-average defense at any outfield spot, he's a decent gamble. If he continues to hit the ball hard and wields an above-average stick, then he becomes a two- to three-win outfielder again, pairing nicely with Jones in center and Kim in left.

For the outfield bench, we'll rely on Joey Rickard to fill in (and possibly platoon with Kim if needed). Nolan Reimold doesn't have much left in the tank, so we'll replace him with Walker, who could man a corner in a real pinch. As with the infield, we'll pray for a clean bill of health with the outfield; although this group has a lot less certainty, the presence of Gomez should shore things up a bit.

Pitching

With Aybar and Gomez, the Orioles have filled out their roster for 2016. What does that mean for the pitchers? Even if the position players hit enough to keep the team in games, will the hurlers just give the lead away? We'll hope that the O's can trot out an average staff, which isn't out of the question — after all, they ranked 14th in fWAR and 11th in RA9-WAR this year. Simply maintaining that would put them on the right track.

For the rotation, we'll lean on the following five men, in order: Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley, and Dylan Bundy. This set of hurlers could pay off, so long as Gausman continues to strand runners, Tillman stays healthy, Jimenez maintains whatever black magic carried him through September, Miley stops underperforming his peripherals, and Bundy doesn't blow his arm out again and/or tire. That's a whole lot of hypotheticals — but as mentioned earlier, this team doesn't have many guarantees for 2017. The rotation, while unimpressive, doesn't have any pressing needs like the outfield and bench do. Should all this break right, the O's could even have an average group of starters.

And the bullpen should be anything but average. Even if Britton does depart, the core of Brach, Givens, and O'Day will blow past opposing hitters. Donnie Hart showed an ability to retire lefties and slot in as the LOOGY of the group, and Oliver Drake's splitter gives him some intriguing upside. Meanwhile, Yovani Gallardo, Mike Wright, and/or Tyler Wilson can serve as the fireman/spot starter when needed, although none of them deserves a regular place in the rotation. All together, the pitching staff should at least not be a liability for the 2017 Orioles — and, possibly, it could develop into an asset again.

Conclusion

Over the past five years, among AL teams, the Orioles rank:

• sixth in hitter fWAR;
• seventh in pitcher fWAR;
• third in pitcher RA9-WAR; and
• first in wins

The former three accomplishments don't inspire us; they certainly don't testify to the team's odds in 2017. The latter, though, gives us a glimmer of hope for the future. With Erick Aybar for one year and $6 million, and Carlos Gomez for two years and $25 million, the club should remain respectable for another season. Give them a little luck, and who knows? Maybe another Wild Card berth — or better — is in the works.

Blueprint For The 2017 Orioles (Option 5): Be Bold, But Not Too Bold, Mr Fox.

The Orioles are an aging team. Their good players are rapidly becoming either free agents or expensive, while the farm has been unable to make significant contributions over the past few years. As a result, the Orioles are in a situation where they can only improve their team by increasing payroll, but are already spending over $140 million. Over the last week, Camden Depot writers have illustrated how the Orioles will have a difficult challenge merely trying to maintain the status quo, let alone improve. And yet, as Matt K wrote, the Orioles did win 89 games last year and earned a spot in the wild card game. All is not bleak.

With minimal remaining resources, the Orioles will need to decide whether they should stay the course or shake things up a little. I believe that the Orioles, with an aging team, need to be bold. Therefore, I'm creating two blueprints, one presuming a payroll around $150M and the other presuming a payroll around $160M.

As Patrick and Ryan noted, the Orioles have three main players becoming free agents this year: Mark Trumbo (RF), Matt Wieters (C), and Pedro Alvarez (DH). I believe that the Orioles should offer a qualifying offer solely to Mark Trumbo. Pedro Alvarez had a decent season for the Orioles, but I think everyone agrees he isn't worth $17 million a year and would happily accept a QO.

Matt Wieters is perhaps the hardest decision. With the inability of Caleb Joseph or Pena to contribute any offense, it's pretty clear that the Orioles wouldn't have made it to the playoffs without Wieters last year. Yet Wieters is only an average catcher at this point and the Orioles don't have the resources to afford to spend $17 million on an average player. Even with Wieters on the club, the Orioles' offensive production was 23th in the majors. BORAS thinks that Wieters will receive 2 and $20 million and therefore would happily accept a QO.

On the other hand, I think the Orioles should offer Trumbo a QO. Trumbo has just had a career year and would be better off signing a long-term deal to ensure that he maximizes his earnings. In addition, Trumbo brings a significant amount of offense to the table and can help the Orioles as a DH. BORAS projects Trumbo to receive 3 and $40M and I think that's a high enough amount to ensure that he declines the offer.

Next, the Orioles have to make a decision to tender a number of arbitration eligible players. I recommend non-tendering Ryan Flaherty and T.J McFarland. McFarland is an AAAA player worth only the minimum wage while Flaherty is nothing more than an extremely offensively-limited super sub. The Orioles should keep Britton, Worley, Machado, Schoop, Gausman and Joseph although non-tendering Worley may not be a bad idea. I would attempt to trade Chris Tillman and Brad Brach. The rules for this blueprint do allow for trades, but don't allow using any received players on the 25 man roster.

I think that both Tillman and Brach had lucky seasons in 2016, and are currently overvalued. While some teams may see the 2016 all-star as a potential closer candidate and certainly as a set-up man, I think that he's nothing more than a seventh-inning reliever and primarily a ROOGY unless he can find another pitch to use against lefties. A trade to a team that values him higher could possibly net a generous return in prospects far in excess of his value.

The decision to shop Tillman is more difficult. If one believes that an opposing team will trade for Jimenez, Miley or Gallardo and take on their entire salary, then trading Tillman may not make sense. Likewise, if one thinks that Bundy can't start for a whole year, then it may be impossible to trade Tillman. However, teams need to trade talent to get talent, and it is hard to get strong returns trading mediocre players. If like me, you think that Tillman is due for regression, then better to sell high.

The first player I’d sign is Jason Castro for 2 and $20 million. It seems reasonable to presume that the Orioles are going to have to rely on mediocre starting pitchers next year. If so, the best chance of ensuring their success is by adding catchers with good pitch framing skills. A Castro/Joseph platoon would be able to frame pitches for strikes, thus encouraging Jimenez, Gallardo and Miley to throw pitches near the strike zone and hope their catchers can get them a strike.

In addition, Jason Castro has strong platoon splits favoring using him against right handed pitching (.332 wOBA vs .240) while Caleb Joseph was best against left handed pitching in 2014 and 2015. This sets up a situation where Castro can catch 90-100 games against primarily right handed pitchers while Joseph can catch 50-60 games against primarily left-handed pitchers. This also gives the Orioles more time to assess Chance Sisco and see whether he’s a major league catcher.

The second player I’d recommend the Orioles’ sign is Desmond Jennings. Jennings was DFA’d by the Rays after having yet another injury-filled and largely ineffective season. He’s considered to have a significant amount of talent but was considered frustrating. Tampa Bay Times writer Mark Topkin asked why it took so long to release him. It’s questionable whether he can still play CF or if he needs to play in a corner. Clearly, there are some issues here. On the other hand, a good corner outfielder could cost the club $16 million a year. If the Orioles want to fill their weaknesses in the free agent market, they’ll need to take some chances.

For this exercise, I developed a metric that determined which hitters faced the best pitchers. I found that Jennings faced stronger pitching than the average hitter last year and this makes his offensive numbers look worse than they actually were. Jennings historically also has strong numbers against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching and could be used in a platoon with Hyun Soo Kim in a corner outfield position. A platoon role may keep Jennings fresh, healthy and productive. Jennings is a player that could possibly benefit from a change of scenery. His talent isn't in question, so a team that signs him may be rewarded.

BORAS thinks that Jennings will receive 2 yrs and $19.1 million in free agency. However, it’s clear that BORAS isn't aware of his off-field issues. If any team felt that Jennings was worth that much, they simply could have claimed him from the Rays and taken advantage of the fact that they’d still have one more year of control that would cost at most $4 million. The fact that no one picked him suggests that his value is easily below $5M in the free market. I think $3.5 million should be enough to sign Jennings and he’d be my key to the off-season.

The next player I’d sign is Michael Bourn. Bourn is ideally a fourth outfielder even if he had a good stretch with the Orioles in September. Unfortunately, the Orioles desperately need an outfielder and don’t have the cash to sign one of the top ones like Desmond, Bautista, Reddick or Cespedes. Bourn can contribute good defense in right field and also faced tougher pitching than the average hitter in 2016.

BORAS projects Bourn to receive a minor league contract with significant incentives. I think that a one year offer for $2.5 million should be enough to get him signed. The hope is that given 600 PAs, he can be a 1 win player or so.

The final main player that I’d sign is Steve Pearce for 2 yrs and $15 million to play DH. Pearce is a professional hitter with significant versatility and is a Buck favorite. BORAS felt that Pearce would receive 3 and $40 million but is unaware of the fact that Pearce suffered a season-ending injury last season. Rounding out the team is Rickard and Janish on the bench and Hart, Wright and a Rule V pick in the bullpen.

All told, this team should cost $153.5 million. For this analysis, I count Chris Davis as earning $17 million in 2017 and disregard his deferred cash. I also do the same for O’Day but not for Jimenez or Hardy. In addition, I presume that Bundy will get a pay cut this year (just like Guthrie) and will earn only $1.5 million. In theory, this gives me a few million dollars to spend on signing minor league players, but I also think that the Orioles are unlikely to spend $160 million this season. The starting rotation would take a hit due to the loss of Chris Tillman and the bullpen would struggle to replace Brach, but the offense would be about the same due to some of the new additions and the defense would be much improved. For 2018, the Orioles would be at roughly $114 million in payroll and would have the flexibility to rebuild their rotation after Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo become free agents.

But what if the Orioles really are willing to break $160 million and maybe even go close to $165M? In that case, I’d do the same thing with offering qualifying offers. I’d still try and trade Brach and Tillman while non-tendering McFarland, Flaherty and Worley. I’d still add Jason Castro at Catcher. To fill left field, I’d offer Jennings and Bourn $2.5 million. The first player to accept the offer gets the role and the second can go elsewhere. For DH, I’d use a platoon of Kim and Mancini. This gives Mancini a chance to get himself acclimated to life in the major leagues without requiring a huge role.

With the remaining cash, I’d offer 5 years and $115 million (salary increases by $1M each year) to sign Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes has been an elite bat for the Mets the past year and a half and faced harder pitching than the average hitter. Cespedes is better against left handed pitchers than right handed pitchers and therefore could be paired up well with Chris Davis. BORAS thinks that Cespedes will only receive 4 yrs and $70 million in the free agent market. I disagree. I think that Cespedes will benefit from being the best player in a weak market. Jon Heyman has said that teams will offer him four years at close to hundred million.

This would be a bold move because it would mean that the Orioles would have promised significant money to two players that will be past their prime in three years. It would almost certainly make it harder for the Orioles to build around Machado in the future. But on the other hand, adding Cespedes would give the Orioles another elite bat. There would be no question that the Orioles offense wouldn’t be improved from last year, especially with a healthy Chris Davis. And if the Orioles could find another decent starter off the scrap heap, then they’d be tough to beat in the playoffs.

By my calculations, this club would cost $161 million and would have roughly $30 million next year to find a new third baseman, a DH, and three starting pitchers. This would certainly be a challenge and would likely force the Orioles to use Wilson and Mancini as regulars in 2018 regardless of their performance.

The Orioles have been a successful club over the past five years and may think that they only need a few minor changes to make it to the playoffs in 2017. But if they feel that they need to get bold and mix things up, then these plans would certainly do that for them. And the pieces they get in these deals might just be enough to take them to the Promised Land.

Looking Back At My 2016 Blueprint: Some Good Chicken Salad

Here at Camden Depot, we’re doing our off-season blueprints. I think it’s only fair for me to take a look at what I suggested last year and see whether it panned out.

Qualifying Offers:

I suggested that the Orioles offer qualifying offers to Chris Davis and Wei-Yei Chen. I also stated that I would probably offer Wieters a qualifying offer, but expect that the Orioles wouldn’t. Then again, I also didn’t expect the Orioles payroll to skyrocket.

These were probably the right decisions. Chris Davis and Wei-Yin Chen were easily able to find lucrative contracts despite being offered a qualifying offer. To my surprise, Matt Wieters was not only offered a qualifying offer but accepted it. Wieters didn’t have a particularly good year with only a .320 wOBA and 1.7 fWAR, but the other Orioles catchers were terrible as Pena had a .244 wOBA and Joseph has a .192 wOBA. Without Wieters, the Orioles certainly wouldn't have made the playoffs so sometimes bad decisions work out.

Non Tenders:

I recommended tendering Matusz and Reimold contracts, but non-tendering Miguel Gonzalez. In retrospect, this worked out poorly. I was correct in suggesting that the Orioles non-tender Gonzalez. Instead, the Orioles waited to non-tender him until they were on the hook for some of his contract and thereby wasted a million dollars. Gonzalez did have a strong season for the White Sox, primarily due to lowering his home run rate at home. I don’t think he would have been successful in Camden Yards.
Matusz and Reimold were both unsuccessful in Baltimore. The Orioles needed to trade their competitive balance pick to get rid of Matusz while Reimold put together a .222/.300/.365 season worth -.4 fWAR. In retrospect, the Orioles would have been better off without either of these players.

Free Agents:

Mat Latos for 1 year and $9 million: Bust.

This was one of my biggest busts in the blueprint. I saw something in Latos and thought that he might be able to bounce back. However, the market was decidedly cool on Latos and he only received a one year $3 million dollar deal, suggesting that his baggage hurt him. After 60 innings with the White Sox, Latos was cut. The only saving grace for this pick is that the Orioles probably wouldn’t have signed him due to his baggage.

J.A Happ for 3 years and $36 million: Hit

As I projected, Happ received a 3 year and $36 million dollar deal from the Blue Jays. Happ continued to make me look good by putting together a 20-4 season with a 3.18 ERA. However, his FIP wasn’t as impressive at 3.96 in part due to a mediocre strikeout rate. Happ showed some regression from his impressive 2015 with the Pirates. Against right handed pitching, his fastball is still dominant, but he lacked a quality second pitch to go with it. Against lefties, he struggled to throw his secondary pitches into the strike zone. Going forward, I think it’s safe to say that Happ had a lucky 2016 but should be seen as a likely #3 starter for 2017 and 2018. For 3 years and $36 million, that’s a huge hit.

Darren O’Day for 4 years and $32 million: Unclear

I was reasonably close when projecting how much O’Day would receive. I said 4 and $32 million with some deferred money while he actually got 4 and $31 million with some deferred money. Unfortunately, due to injuries, O’Day only threw 30 innings and had home run issues. O’Day was definitely disappointing in 2016 but there’s reasonable hope that he can bounce back in 2017 and be the setup man that the Orioles need.

Byung Ho Park for 4 yrs and $20 million with an $8 million posting fee:  Bust

Park had a terrible season where he was completely unproductive in the majors and was ultimately sent to the minors. He was one of my two biggest busts. However, unlike the Latos pick, I get a mulligan on this pick because the Twins topped my posting fee by over $4 million. I had no interest in Park for a posting fee of $12.8 million. This is another case where sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

Matt Joyce for 1 year and $2.5 million: Hit.

Matt Joyce had a strong year for the Pirates as a platoon player with a .242/.403/.463 line and 1.3 fWAR. Given that Joyce signed a minor league contract, he should have been happy to sign with the Orioles for a major league contract.

Mark Reynolds for 1 year and $2 million: Hit

Mark Reynolds had a decent year for the Rockies with a .282/.356/.450 line good for about .1 fWAR. This is pretty much what I was hoping from him – basic competence at the DH position. Realistically, there’s no way he would have taken this offer over what the Rockies offered him.

All in all, this team would have been probably better than what the 2016 Orioles fielded. It seems likely that Angelos made the decision to sign Davis. Fortunately, this team would have enough cash to afford him. Likewise, this scenario didn’t allow me the opportunity to make any trades, so it’s only fair that I have Trumbo added to this squad. As such, the offense and relief pitching would have been reasonably similar to what the Orioles actually fielded. But my rotation would be far better. I felt the Os should sign Happ and Latos instead of using Gallardo and Wright, and this was easily a victory for me. In addition, this club would have cost $139 million on opening day compared to the $148 million that Cot’s said that the Orioles payroll actually was on opening day. That means I’d have an extra $9 million to spend, and as it happened, I did suggest two players that the Orioles consider signing late in the offseason.

Ian Desmond: 1 year and $8 million: Hit

I suggested that the Orioles should have been in on Ian Desmond at 1/$8 because he could either be a right fielder or a shortstop if Hardy got hurt. I didn’t think Desmond would be a strong offensive player and he ended up with a wRC+ of 106 or slightly above average. However, Desmond was excellent on the basepaths and showed competence in center field. Having Desmond on the team would have given the Orioles above average defense in right field instead of being forced to rely on Trumbo and his poor defense with decent offensive production. As it turns out, Desmond would have fit perfectly in the Orioles remaining budget under my blueprint and would have fit in beautifully in right field. Oh well.

David Freese: 1 year and $3 million: Hit

I also said the Orioles would regret not signing David Freese. Freese had a good year with a .270/.352/.412 line while matching his wRC+ of 110 as he did in 2015 and being worth 1.9 fWAR. For $3 million, such production would have been a steal. I’m not sure the Os could have fit both Freese and Desmond on the club, but either one would have been a huge boost to the Orioles playoff chances.

All in all, if the Orioles followed my blueprint, they would have had a slightly upgraded offense. The Orioles wouldn’t have picked up Kim, Rickard or Alvarez, but they would have added Joyce and Desmond. The offense would have been slightly better and the outfield defense would have been much improved. Adding Happ to the rotation would have been a huge upgrade for both 2016 and the future instead of Gallardo. Happ and Desmond would have been huge hits while Latos would have been the biggest bust.

If nothing else, this blueprint would have ensured that the Blue Jays missed the playoffs. But it’s likely that the Orioles would have at minimum taken the first wild card spot and likely would have just edged out the Red Sox for the division. If you ask me, that would have been a pretty good result and I’d say some pretty good chicken salad.

Blueprint For The 2017 Orioles (Option 4): Aiming For The Wild Card

Next year's Orioles will be fascinating. The team is in win-now mode, as evidenced by the 2014 J.J. Hardy extension, the mammoth contract to Chris Davis, the large commitment to Darren O'Day, and the forfeiture of several draft picks over the past few years. These players were retained to complement a solid core: perennial MVP candidate Manny Machado, exceptionally talented relievers Brad Brach and Zach Britton, and face-of-the-franchise Adam Jones.

The challenge: make the playoffs for $160 million. That's difficult given the large commitments already on staff. The 2016 team opened the season with a $147 million payroll. And although next year a few free agents will come off the books, Britton and Machado will earn over $11 million each, according to MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration estimator. Brad Brach's salary will jump to nearly $3 million. Jonathan Schoop and Kevin Gausman will also see their first arbitration salaries, estimated at $3.4 million for the former and $3.9 million for the latter. I'm happy for these guys; they've played well and earned the money. But that leaves the team in a bind.

With the team looking to contend yet again but with payroll already high, what moves should the Orioles make this offseason?

Qualifying Offers

The most pressing question is to whom, if anyone, the Orioles should make a qualifying offer. MLBTR estimates the QO at a princely $17.2 million. That sounds like a lot but it isn't; with the price of a free-agent win coming in at around $8.5 million, the QO is the going rate for an average (two-win) player. The draft pick element adds another wrinkle, but I'll ignore it here. It's safe to say the Orioles don't care much about those right now, and I agree they shouldn't. I'll ignore that element of their decision.

Offer the QO to Wieters; I think he'll decline it. The new QO represents only an 8.8% raise to him, and Wieters stands out as a good catcher in this year's free-agent market. He will want to test the waters for his age-31 season. He can get a multi-year deal that will exceed the value of the QO. Take the draft pick his rejection will bring.

Don't offer the QO to Trumbo. It's a tempting 87% raise for him, and I think he'll take that sure thing over testing free agency. Enough teams have passed on Trumbo that he and his agent should view him as a marginal player, and enough players have been screwed by rejecting the QO that Trumbo will accept it. Given I don't think Trumbo has another two-win season in him, his acceptance will stick the Orioles with Trumbo at an above-market rate, which they can't afford.

Ditto with Pedro Alvarez: don't make him an offer. The QO represents a 190% raise from his $5.95 million salary. He'd take it in a heartbeat. As with Trumbo, I doubt Alvarez will crack the two-win mark next year.

Good-bye to Wieters, Trumbo, and Alvarez. It was nice knowing you (Wieters especially).

Infield

With the departure of Wieters and Alvarez, the team is down a catcher and a DH. It's time for Caleb Joseph to take the lead with the tools of ignorance. Abysmal 2016 aside, he makes contact at an average rate and has exhibited a roughly league-average ISO before. His defense is also better than Wieters'. Oh, he'll also make about $1 million next year.

As his backup, I'd sign Nick Hundley for 1 year and $4 million. Hundley has cut down on his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate since leaving the Orioles. He also continues to hit for a bit of power, showing a .180 ISO last year. As a result he can put up a wRC+ in the 80's. Not great, but then again he's not making Buster Posey money.

Or, if you want Hundley starting and Joseph backing up, that's fine too. I don't have a strong preference. If you want to swap Hank Conger with Nick Hundley, I'm fine with that too. I would prefer Jason Castro; his excellent framing skills will help paper over the crack in the sidewalk that is the Orioles' starting rotation. But he's too rich for this team's blood.

As for DH, I'd like to give Christian Walker a shot. There's no money available for anyone else. Walker's played the outfield before, so I have him over Trey Mancini. But if you show me a video of Trey Mancini playing left field in Little League, then fine, he can start for the team. Finally, let's keep Ryan Flaherty and his utility-ness at his estimated $1.7 million salary.  

Infield total: Davis, Schoop, Machado, Joseph, Hardy, Hundley, Flaherty, and Walker for $58.81 million.

Outfield

Trumbo's departure means the team needs a starting right fielder. As I did last year, I implore the team to focus on defense. Teams like the Mets can get away with a bad outfield defense because Syndergaard, deGrom, and Harvey strike a lot of guys out. The Orioles are in the opposite situation; low strikeout totals mean more balls in play.

The Orioles will also need to mix and match in the outfield moreso than in previous years. Jones is big for a center fielder (6'3", 220 lbs). Center fielders with this body type (Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones) moved to a corner by age 32; Jones will be 31 this year. He'll need more days of rest than last year, whether that means DH'ing, riding the bench day-to-day, or spending time on the DL.

With these needs in mind I'd sign Peter Bourjos to a one-year deal at $7.7 million. Bourjos isn't much of a hitter, but he has some excellent defensive seasons on his resume. He's also a good baserunner and extremely fast, meaning he can spell Jones in center and score from second in high-leverage spots. The team will hope he catches BABIP lightning in a bottle en route to a two-win season. As a bonus, Bourjos should not cost the team a draft pick.

The piggy bank is nearly empty, so let's bring back Michael Bourn and Drew Stubbs on deals at the league minimum plus incentives. They provide speed on the bases, defense in the outfield, pinch-running opportunities, and hit from opposite sides of the plate. Stubbs can platoon with Kim in left as well, if need be. Good-bye to Joey Rickard; you never learned to control the strike zone and your defense left a lot to be desired.

Outfield total: Jones, Kim, Bourjos, Bourn, and Stubbs for $28.74 million.

Rotation

No moves on this front. My starting rotation consists of Gausman, Tillman, Miley, Jimenez, and Gallardo in that order. Gausman had himself an under-the-radar three-win season last year; tellingly, he started the Wild Card-clinching game on the final day of the season. Tillman is who he is at this point. Miley is also an average pitcher who suffered horrendous HR/FB and BABIP luck with the Orioles. Would you believe his xFIP with the team was a sparkling 3.34? I predict the same fans who turned on him in August 2016 will sing his praises by August 2017.

These guys are, shockingly enough, not a bad one-two-three. But the same can't be said about the last two guys. I put Jimenez in front of Gallardo because the former at least gets ground balls and can strike batters out. He's also proven he can adjust his mechanics should he struggle too much. Gallardo's K-BB% last year was a pathetic 4.6%. Enough said.

No one will take them in a trade. I would DFA/release them but that wouldn't solve the salary problem. I'd stick them in the bullpen except they'd be useful only as mop-up men. Oh well. At least both will be gone after this season. Would you believe this is the last year of Jimenez's contract? That snuck up on me.

Rotation total: Gausman, Tillman, Miley, Jimenez, and Gallardo for $47.92 million.

Bullpen

The aforementioned rotation means Dylan Bundy starts the year in the bullpen again. With Jimenez and Gallardo in the rotation though, Bundy should see plenty of action as a long reliever. By the end of the year, if the team is in contention, he may replace the latter entirely.

In addition to long relief, Bundy can spot start. Very few teams make it through the year needing only five starting pitchers. That's why Tyler Wilson is in the pen as well. He provides a similar, if less effective, option as Bundy. I chose Wilson over Mike Wright because Wilson walks fewer batters. Throwing 95 MPH isn't so great if you don't know where the ball's going.

O'Day, Givens, Brach, O'Day, and Britton return. I hope Givens works on his change-up this offseason so lefties don't smack him around the park so much. Donnie Hart also gets the call as a much-needed lefty.

I've heard some chatter about trading Britton. That would be a mistake. The Orioles are in urgent, red-light-flashing, sirens-blaring, win-right-the-hell-now mode. The starting rotation will not dominate the opposition and the offense is boom-or-bust. The team needs to be as sure as possible that any mid-to-late inning leads stay that way. Britton provides this assurance.

Trading Britton would also lead to ... what? Prospects? Those aren't valuable to the Orioles right now. They're all-in for the present. Another corner outfielder? $11 million doesn't buy what Britton gives you: total dominance in the highest-possible leverage situations in baseball.

No, it's best to keep Britton, scratch out a one- or two-run lead, and let the familiar Orioles bullpen put a sleeper hold on the opposition. You look at trading him towards the midpoint of the 2018 season if the Orioles aren't in a good spot then. Plenty of teams will need a rent-a-reliever. Just look at what Chicago gave up for Aroldis Chapman this year.

P.S. I non-tendered Vance Worley and T.J. McFarland.

Bullpen total: Bundy, Hart, Wilson, Givens, Brach, Britton, and O'Day for $24.63 million.

25-man total: $160.1 million.

Conclusion

This exercise was incredibly difficult, but the Orioles now have a reasonably competent 25-man roster that exceeds the budget by only $100,000. That seems good, although it could escalate if Bourn and/or Stubbs hit their incentives. By that time though payroll will be inflated anyway, assuming the team adds a bit of money to push for the playoffs. If Peter Angelos is going to fire me over 100 grand, well, I'm fine with that. I tried! Get Chris Davis to write you a check. He can afford it.

It's reasonable to think the team will contend again this year. In the dual Wild Card era, fielding a true-talent 81-81 team keeps you in contention to the final weeks of the season. Gain 5-6 wins in the standings with some well-timed hits with runners in scoring position (or well timed run prevention), and you vault into legitimate Wild Card contention.

These outcomes are entirely within reach for the 2017 Orioles.

Blueprint For The 2017 Orioles (Option 3): Let's Get Versatile

Since this is the third installment of Camden Depot’s 2017 Orioles blueprint series, you should know the drill by now. Construct the 2017 roster while staying within an assumed budget of $160 million without trading anyone. Here we go…

Non-Tendered Players

As in years past, the Orioles have a number of arbitration eligible players. I’m going to keep all of them except for T.J. McFarland and Vance Worley, as I think similar contributions can be found for less money. I would preferably non-tender Ryan Flaherty as well, and try to resign him for less than the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projection ($1.7 million), but unless you can talk yourself into a Ruben Tejada type player instead, there isn’t much else out there in terms of a cheap bench bat that can play shortstop, among other positions.

Qualifying Offers

I’m giving one to Mark Trumbo because I think there is a really good chance that he declines. In the event that he accepts the offer, it would be worthwhile coming up with a Plan B, as that $17 million (or there about) would suck up basically all of my budget. For now let’s assume that he declines, since that currently seems to be the perception. With a strict 2017 budget of $160 million, there is no way I’m offering another qualifying offer to Matt Wieters, as I think there is a good chance that he accepts, even with the Wilson Ramos injury. Either way, I can’t take the chance of both accepting the qualifying offer, so I’m only handing out one, and it’s going to Trumbo.

2017 Roster

So here is what we are left with in 2017 and the holes that we need to fill. All salaries are either obtained from Cot’s Contracts, the arbitration projections from MLB Trade Rumors, or salary projections using the Camden Depot BORAS model. I assumed that the major league minimum will be $520,000 (this will ultimately be decided when the new CBA is completed) and that Dylan Bundy gets a slight raise from $1.8 million (his 2016 salary) to $2.0 million.

Looking at the figure, I have to fill vacancies at catcher and right field, along with 2 bench spots, and 2 bullpen spots with approximately $14.96 million. This is where you say, “good luck”. Thanks.

Infield

First and foremost, if Manny Machado is open to a contract extension that is structured in a way that frees up a little bit of budget space in 2017, I’m trying to get that done immediately. For this exercise, I’m assuming he’s not. Catcher is the only open position. Caleb Joseph stays on, but great defense aside, I’m not sure his bat justifies a starting position for him. Furthermore, I’m not sure he can physically handle the catching position on a full time basis. To help with the catching duties, I’m looking to stay internal with Francisco Pena. Pena hasn’t been terribly impressive in his limited time in the majors, but he has a reputation of being a decent defender and has shown power in AAA in the past (40 home runs in 744 PA’s between 2014 and 2015 in the Royals system). I don’t even feel good about this decision, but the options on the free agent market aren’t great, and there are limited funds. There isn’t really a starter in this scenario, more of a 50/50 timeshare.

If you want to be extremely optimistic, Chance Sisco comes up halfway through the season and takes over the catching position. I wouldn’t bet on that though. Signing a veteran to a minor league deal (think Ryan Hanigan or Drew Butera) for insurance would be a prudent move.

Remaining Funds: 14.44 million

Outfield

Adam Jones returns to man centerfield and Hyun-soo Kim performed well enough to earn the full-time left field job. And by full-time, I mean no platoon. Right field is where we need to fill a spot. I’m in more of the Joey Rickard 4th or 5th outfielder camp than even platoon starter and Dariel Alvarez may not even be a bench bat. So we'll need to sign someone to play right field.

Originally, I was in favor of Jay Bruce to fill right field, but following yesterday’s post and the discussion regarding the Mets picking up Bruce’s option, he probably won’t be available. In light of that, I’m suggesting signing Jon Jay instead, who BORAS projects can be acquired for a 2 year deal worth $19.7 million ($9.85 annually). It may eat up a lot of our remaining budget, but Jay is essentially your league average hitter (career 106 wRC+) and fielder (career -1 Defensive Run Saved), can play all 3 outfield positions adequately, and will also fill an outfield position in 2018, which at the moment consists of Adam Jones and that’s it. I also like the addition of Jay to the Orioles lineup as someone who consistently puts the ball in play.

Remaining Funds: $4.59 million

Pitching Staff

It would be nice to improve the starting pitching, but aside from the fact that the Orioles already have 6 starters for 5 spots, there isn’t a guaranteed improvement on the free agent market. Plus, because of various flaws among them, I’m keeping all 6 starters because one of the 5 listed in the figure above WILL inevitably succumb to injury or ineffectiveness. In fact, with this group, I’d ideally want to bring in a few more options, but with this budget, it’s not happening.

So I’m starting Bundy in the bullpen for the beginning of the season for health reasons, and he’s the first cavalry (sorry) member called when someone disappoints. I’m filling the other two bullpen openings with internal options with any combination of Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Oliver Drake, Parker Bridwell, Donnie Hart, etc. Wright, Wilson, and Bridwell could potentially be spot-starters as well if more than one of the starters needs to be relieved of their duties.

Remaining Funds: $3.55 million

Bench

So far, the bench consists of Caleb Joseph or Francisco Pena, Ryan Flaherty, and Joey Rickard, meaning we have 2 spots to fill. I only have $3.55 million left, so one (or both) will need to be filled by a player making the minimum. One of those players would be either Trey Mancini or Christian Walker, and while I would prefer Mancini to get a little more time in AAA, I wouldn’t be opposed to putting him on the opening day roster.

With $3.03 million left, I am going to sign Chris Coghlan to be a poor man’s Ben Zobrist and play all over the field. Coghlan’s 2016 season wasn’t good at all (66 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR), so he potentially could be had cheap. However, he was worth 5.7 fWAR in just over 900 PA’s in 2014 and 2015 combined, so he isn’t too far removed from success either, which makes coming up with a salary for him potentially challenging. Signing Coghlan to a somewhat realistic contract while staying under budget requires me to take some creative license, so I’ll sign him to a 1-year deal for $3 million (how convenient!), with a $7 million option that vests at 300 PA’s, or something else that is easily attainable (I did not ask Jon to run a BORAS projection for him since I’m finishing this up late the night before).

The acquisition of Coghlan allows the Orioles to use the DH spot as a rotational position to rest guys or play match ups (or both), which is in stark contrast to the 2016 team that featured both Mark Trumbo (miscast in the outfield) and Pedro Alvarez on the roster. With many of the Orioles core position players getting older (Jones, Davis, Hardy), having that additional flexibility to rest guys or rotate them through the DH spot becomes more important.

Conclusion

Here’s the final tally:

• OF Jon Jay - 2 years, $19.7 million
• UTIL Chris Coghlan – 1 year, $3 million (vesting $7 million option if 300 PA’s reached)

This was a tough exercise, much more difficult than last year in my opinion. I went through many different possibilities (including releasing Gallardo to save $520,000) and for now I think this is the best option. However, I may very well wake up tomorrow not even liking my own suggestions anymore. On the plus side, much of the team that returns is the same one that won 89 games in 2016. If you don’t have a lot of money to spend, that’s a pretty good starting point.

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Postscript: If trades were an option, I’d be heavily shopping Zach Britton, along with Brad Brach, Christian Walker, and Trey Mancini to try and restock the farm system and potentially add to the major league roster. Cost savings from Britton’s (and potentially Brach’s) salary would likely go to the catcher position or a better option in RF (like Josh Reddick), along with potentially an additional pitcher(s) who could start or relieve like a Travis Wood or Jesse Chavez.

Blueprint For The 2017 Orioles (Option 1): An Expanded Role For Hyun Soo Kim

This is the second post in a series by Camden Depot staff writers exploring what the Orioles should do this offseason to get back to the playoffs in 2017. It should be noted that this exercise does not include trades, though it's unlikely the O's make a major move in that regard. These posts focus on roster construction and free agent decisions. Enjoy!

The one good thing about this offseason for the Orioles is that they don't have a bunch of decisions to make if they don't want to. The 2016 Orioles won 89 games and earned a spot in the American League wild card game, so, for the most part, they can run things back next season. The most crucial question is what to do about impending free agents Matt Wieters and Mark Trumbo. Both are good players, but neither is a superstar. And if both were to walk, the Orioles still have a talented core.

While the O's may not have a bunch of decisions to make, there doesn't appear to be much flexibility in terms of payroll. This past season, the Orioles had a payroll of about $147 million. Before arbitration in 2017, the Orioles have around $95 million to eight players tied up in salary. But factoring in arbitration is when things get dicey.

Arbitration Raises

The Orioles' arbitration-eligible players are estimated to earn about $50 million. The big three of those arbitration players includes Manny Machado, Zach Britton, and Chris Tillman, who could all receive about $11 million apiece. (See MLB Trade Rumors' full list of arbitration salary projections for next season.)

Machado, Britton, and Tillman are no-brainers. They're good players (phenomenal in the cases of Machado and Britton), and you pay them what they're worth. The same goes for Jonathan Schoop, Brad Brach, and Kevin Gausman.

But what about Ryan Flaherty ($1.7M), Vance Worley ($3.3M), T.J. McFarland ($700K), and Caleb Joseph ($1M)? Joseph isn't going anywhere, and he shouldn't. There's no way the Orioles opt to move on from Wieters and Joseph in the same offseason. McFarland is due to make even less than Joseph, but the need for him is not as crucial. Plus, like Flaherty, he's now out of options.

Out of the four questions marks, I'd non-tender Worley and McFarland. McFarland isn't all that good, has struggled to stay healthy, and doesn't fill a position of serious need. The Orioles very well may carry all six starting pitchers -- Tillman, Gausman, Wade Miley, Ubaldo Jimenez, Dylan Bundy, and Yovani Gallardo -- next season, meaning that's one bullpen spot already filled by a swingman type. Plus, the Orioles also have Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, and Parker Bridwell (among others) who could duke it out for another mop-up, long reliever slot.

If the O's somehow dump one of Jimenez or Gallardo, then it might be worth keeping Worley around. But there are only so many OK pitchers you can keep who don't have options, and there are only so many spots in the bullpen. And I really, really don't want the Orioles to tender him a contract and then ship him off with a competitive balance pick in the spring just to get rid of his moderate salary. That's a poor use of resources, and it should stop happening.

As for Flaherty, the Orioles don't seem to have someone else in their organization capable of a utility player role. Perhaps the O's could bring back Paul Janish and save a little money (maybe around $1 million). I wouldn't be against that, but again, we aren't talking about much. It is nice, too, to have a reliable and versatile glove around. That also describes Janish.

After accounting for players under contract and arbitration raises, the Orioles are already at about $140 million. Now the fun starts, because it's qualifying offer time.

Matt Wieters and Mark Trumbo

Let's just get right to it: Should the Orioles extend both Wieters and Trumbo qualifying offers (which will be $17.2 million next season)? That would be a calculated risk to acquire two extra draft picks, but it might also be something the Orioles simply will not do.

One-year deals are low-risk maneuvers, but potentially tying up more than $34 million next season in those two players would almost certainly lead to the O's doing very little else with the roster. But here's the thing: The Orioles might be cash-strapped anyway, which would be an argument for offering both. If both players were to somehow accept the qualifying offer, that would bump the team payroll to nearly $175 million while still needing at least one or two players to fill out the rest of the roster.

Despite the risk, I'd still offer both. Wilson Ramos's torn ACL catapulted Wieters to the top of the free agent catchers list, and it wouldn't be hard to see a team in search of a moderate upgrade at catcher offering Wieters a deal of at least three years. Wieters isn't great by any means, but he'd be a good enough addition for a handful of teams. If he's willing to sacrifice that money to stick around another year in Baltimore, then so be it. It's not ideal to offer him $17 million for one season. It wasn't ideal to have him back for $15.8 million in 2016. But yet another year gets you one step closer to figuring out if Joseph's awful season was a blip on the radar, and also to Chance Sisco's eventual promotion (whether he sticks at catcher or not).

As for Trumbo, the O's still need his bat. The problem is, unless you tether him to the DH spot or play him at first base (both unlikely), you can't get his bat without his outfield glove. He also seems to hit a bit better when he's actually playing in the field.

Like Wieters, Trumbo should be in the market for a lucrative multiyear deal, so it would be tough to imagine him forgoing that money just because he liked the Orioles' clubhouse and winning culture. Still, it's possible. The qualifying offer is now large enough for players to consider taking it, which was demonstrated last year when Wieters, Colby Rasmus, and Brett Anderson became the first players to accept it.

Both would probably reject it, so you'd have to plan for otherwise. But if the Orioles could manage around it, that large of a payroll would be a one-year thing. Look at the list of free agents the O's could have after the 2017 season (other than Wieters and Trumbo): Ubaldo Jimenez, J.J. Hardy ($2M buyout), Yovani Gallardo ($2M buyout), Chris Tillman, Wade Miley ($500K buyout), and Hyun Soo Kim. Sure, there will be another round of arbitration raises and several roster holes to fill, but that would be even more money coming off the books.

So the first option would be to offer both players and see what happens. Running things back with the same cast of characters might not be ideal, but there are much worse things.

And then the next, more likely option is that Trumbo and Wieters, or at least one of the two, declines the qualifying offer. Not only does that net you an extra draft pick or two, but it frees up money to improve the roster in other ways.

Free Agents

The Orioles' (opening day) payroll will almost certainly surpass $150 million this year, but what you think the team will do in free agency depends on how much higher you think it'll go. Could it approach $160 million? Anything much higher than that seems out of the question.

Let's say $160 million is the max. Perhaps that's unrealistic considering the Orioles went from a team payroll of $108 million in 2014 to $119 million in 2015 to $147 million in 2016. That 2015-2016 jump was quite large, but let's stick with the increasing pattern. Without Trumbo/Wieters, the O's would be at about $140 million. That leaves about $20 million for an outfielder or two, a 1B/DH type, and a second catcher.

Outfielders

The returning group of outfielders includes Adam Jones, Kim, and Joey Rickard. I would not bring back Nolan Reimold or Drew Stubbs. I also would not bring back Steve Pearce, at least with any kind of expectation for him to play the outfield regularly. The Orioles are well aware of Pearce's limitations, and the last thing they would need is for him to get injured again playing the outfield.

In center field, there's Jones. He'll be there for the next couple of years as long as he's healthy. The O's do view Rickard as a viable backup center fielder, so it's not a requirement that whomever they sign has those defensive skills. But it wouldn't hurt.

In left field, there's Kim. If you read this site often or follow me on Twitter (sorry), you know I've questioned (relentlessly, you might say) why Kim wasn't playing more often. He led the team in on-base percentage by a wide margin, was one of the team's only options to diversify a power-heavy lineup, and isn't necessarily just a platoon bat (as argued by Jon last week). Perhaps defensive limitations led to him not playing more. According to Defensive Runs Saved data, he was a -13 defender. For reference, Trumbo was -11, Jones was -10, and Rickard was -8. You know Trumbo is a bad outfielder, and also that the advanced metrics are not always kind to Jones. For Kim and Rickard, that's only one season's worth of data (and not a full season for either). Kim has a bad arm, but I have a hard time seeing him as that terrible in the field. The same goes for Rickard.

Regardless, Kim showed that his hit tool plays in the major leagues. The O's need to take advantage of having him under contract for one more season and deploy him more often. His on-base skills are a must at the top of the lineup -- I'd bat Kim first and Machado second -- and it's worth giving him extended at-bats to see if he can tread water against left-handed pitching. Batting him leadoff against right-handed pitching but ninth against left-handers would not be unreasonable. It's not a perfect option, but even sticking him in the lineup at DH wouldn't be terrible.

With Kim in left and Jones in center, that means Rickard needs a platoon partner in right field. A full-time right fielder would be wonderful, but with only about $20 million to spend, that doesn't seem likely. There are some enticing names for sure -- Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond, Josh Reddick -- but they are too expensive (plus, there's little to no chance Fowler ever dons an Orioles uniform after last offseason's drama).

So here are a few left-handed bats that could make sense, with their BORAS projections in parentheses:

Michael Saunders (two years, $20M)
Colby Rasmus (two years, $23M)
Brandon Moss (one year, $9.5M)
Matt Joyce (one year, $9M)
Jon Jay (two years, $20M)
Jay Bruce (one year, $7M)
Michael Bourn (minors deal, up to $6.5M in incentives)

Out of those options, my first choice would be Moss (though Jay is intriguing as a more versatile defensive outfielder and Bruce is pretty cheap). Moss is a decent enough outfielder (and able to play first base as well) who can hit. I don't want any part of Saunders or Joyce as regular outfielders, and Rasmus on any kind of multiyear deal is kind of scary. It also seems that if the O's were truly sold on him before, they would have brought him on board a couple years ago. Still, Moss will probably command a multiyear offer of some kind, and a fit doesn't seem all that likely.

I'm not a huge proponent of Michael Bourn, but it's easy to see how he would again fit on this team. He demonstrated that in limited time after the team acquired him on August 31. I'm not sure he'll get a minor league deal, but he shouldn't cost much. And it's hard not to like the speed and decent glove, even if his bat is a concern.

Thanks in part to a ridiculous .471 BABIP, Bourn actually hit better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching last season (122 wRC+ vs. 69). But career wise, he's better against right-handers (92 wRC+ vs. 76). Neither of those is great, but the main reason to sign Bourn isn't his bat. He'd serve as the second piece of an interesting (though surely not great) platoon with Rickard, and he'd also be a nice defensive and baserunning option late in games.

For the fifth outfielder/bench bat, I'd either sign someone to a minor league/minimum deal or give someone like Dariel Alvarez a shot. He doesn't seem like any kind of answer at the plate, but the glove seems adequate in corner outfield (and he has an outstanding arm). Barring injury, he wouldn't play much anyway.

Designated Hitter

Possible DH options:

Mike Napoli (1 year, $10M)
Adam Lind (1 year, $8M)
Pedro Alvarez (1 year, $8M)

I feel pretty strongly on this one: The Orioles need someone who can hit left-handed pitching after a disastrous year against southpaws.

Could that guy be Trey Mancini? It would be fantastic if that guy could be Trey Mancini. But I'd feel more confident in someone like Mike Napoli (career 142 wRC+ vs. LHP), or even Pearce (career 130 wRC+ vs. LHP). BORAS has Pearce at three years and $39 million, which seems far-fetched. After undergoing surgery on his right forearm, Pearce may indeed be in the market for another one-year deal.

Napoli turns 35 soon, so there's always the chance he could fall off the proverbial cliff. Not every DH ages like David Ortiz (thankfully). He'll also want a multiyear deal, but that doesn't seem all that likely for someone with his skill-set.

I like Pedro Alvarez, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see him return. If/when Trumbo departs, the Orioles could definitely use another big bat, even if it's a left-handed one. I'd prefer Napoli, though.

Catcher

Jason Castro (2 years, $20M)
Kurt Suzuki (1 year, $8M)
Alex Avila (2 years, $20M)

You know what isn't much to work with in free agency? $20 million. I guess this is how the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland A's feel every year. With Bourn and Napoli on board, the O's could have anywhere from $4 to $6 million (maybe) to spend. That's not a lot.

In terms of a catching duo, it would be nice to have a left-handed hitting catcher to pair with Joseph. Castro or Avila would present an interesting fit, but the money might not be there. If the O's went with Mancini as the regular DH over Napoli or Pearce, etc., then yes, it would be. Other than that, there aren't a whole lot of options.

Maybe the likeliest alternative is a reunion with one-time Oriole Nick Hundley. Hundley is an OK hitter for a catcher but not a well-regarded defender or pitch framer. He's also 33 and just completed a two-year, $6.25 million deal, so he shouldn't cost much. As the superior defensive option, Joseph should receive the majority of the playing time.

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Would you be happy with an offseason where the most notable additions are Mike Napoli, Michael Bourn, and Nick Hundley? No, probably not. But that's what can happen when you have a few players on hefty contracts and also a handful of good players going through arbitration. Money gets tight in a hurry.

Even still, having Napoli and Bourn around for an entire season should help the O's in two important areas: hitting left-handers and outfield defense. And getting creative with a pitching trade or two or choosing to give Mancini an extended look would free up some money to use, most likely for a better outfield option. The Orioles surely can't afford any of the expensive outfield options, but it would be a bonus to have a regular corner outfielder playing who is actually useful with the glove.

If the Orioles are going to again approach the 90-win mark and make a push for the playoffs, in all likelihood they'll need to rely on a hopefully improved starting rotation; better seasons from Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Caleb Joseph; and another dominant year from the bullpen. When you look at it that way, it's far from unreasonable.