2013 Minor League Free Agents: Second Base

Second base is not a position of strength for the Orioles.  Their current options are last year's Rule 5 pick Ryan Flaherty, waiver wire pickup Alexi Casilla, elder Brian Roberts, and the green Jonathan Schoop.  The position does not have many great options on the free agent market with players like Marco Scutaro and Kelly Johnson headlining the 2013 class.  Although the team may choose to let the four in house options fight it out in Spring Training, it may be useful to have another option in Norfolk.

Before this past season, Ryan Adams manned 2B in Norfolk offering a potential offensive minded middle infielder.  Adams though will be sitting for the first 50 games due to a drug related suspension and word is that Adams' election for MiL free agency will mean that he is no longer going to be part of the Oriole organization.  There are some other options out there.

Adrian Cardenas, 26yo
Chicago Cubs

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Iowa	AAA	282	.300	.381	.461	109
Chicago	MLB	67	.183	.269	.283	52

Cardenas used to be a top notch prospect, making two top one hundred listings as well as six organizational listing.  Cardenas began his professional career as a shortstop.  When his range decreased, the hope was that he could be an offensive minded second baseman.  Having little touch for second base, he has been mainly shifted to the outfield.  Without a remarkable bat, he likely is now more limited as a utility infielder.

Yangervis Solarte, 26yo
Texas Rangers

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Round Rock	AAA	568	.290	.342	.407	97

Minor league free agent second basemen are a pretty thin lot as evidenced by having to select a rather run of the mill option here.  Solarte joined the Rangers last season, but had spent his career before then in the Twins system.  He manages to put the ball in play with average power and walks for a second baseman.  He could fill in if need as a 2B, 3B,or LF, but not much else.  The Orioles do not have much at 2B in Norfolk until Schoop pushes his way up or if Flaherty is demoted.  There may be some opportunity to see if Solarte has anything to work on.

Brad Emaus, 27yo
New York Mets 

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Buffalo	AAA	232	.212	.297	.315	85

Emaus has performed well in the minors, but has drawn many questions about how well his skill-heavy-talent-light would play at the Major League level.  He originally was in the Blue Jays system, left unprotected in Rule 5/selected by Mets/returned, traded to Rockies, traded to Red Sox, released by Red Sox, and then signed by Mets.  In 2012, his time in the Mets minor league system was a disaster.  Before last season though, Emaus was noted for his understanding of the strike zone. Including that season, his AAA career split is 276/365/458.  That might interest Dan Duquette.

What is on Second Base? The Orioles 2013 Offseason Edition

Several years ago, I came down against the Brian Roberts extension.  It was a difficult stance for me to take as the Depot is a fan of Roberts.  We have interviewed him and think quite highly of his charity to help children suffering from cancer.  However, the cruel reality of baseball decision making led us to conclude that letting Roberts walk or dealing him was preferable to signing him long term.  Our simple analysis was based on his decreasing defensive capabilities and the overwhelming historical weight of data that suggests that almost all second basemen stop being useful past the age of 32.  Further confusing us, was Andy MacPhail's offer of four years and 40 MM, which was arguably above market value.  At the time, Orlando Hudson was a free agent of roughly equal value to Brian Roberts.  He managed to secure a one year deal from the Dodgers for 3.4 MM.  The Orioles appeared to secure their second base position by vastly overpaying and overcommitting themselves to a player type that carried a high risk of completely collapsing in terms of value.

What happened?  In 2010, Roberts' first season of his extension and at the age of 32, his value disappeared.  It was more of the same in 2011 and 2012.  Issues have been related to his back and to concussions.  The historical evidence did not suggest that Roberts would go down with any specific injury, but that it was very very likely to occur.  From my perspective, second basemen get beaten up worse than almost any other position.  Every single game, second basemen (who are typically one of your smaller players on the team) has to take double play balls blindly, pivot, and hit the first baseman.  There is a good reason why second basemen are significantly more injured around the bag than shortstops.

Anyway, the point is that the Orioles have thrown away a ton of money on second and will likely continue to do so this year as well.  Below is another one of the WAR charts I have put together for first base and left field.  It uses Fangraphs numbers to convert positional value over 150 games.  I consider 150 games to be what one should consider a full season for a player.  Regardless of that assumption, it provides a decent visual to understand the spectrum.



What the above graph shows us is that second base was an incredibly weak position for the Orioles.  Robert Andino took the lion's share of the starts (96) and was helped out a little bit by Omar Quintanilla (27), Ryan Flaherty (20), Brian Roberts (17), and Steve Tolleson (2).  Whatever the Orioles tried, it did not work and not much was enticing in Norfolk (i.e., Ryan Adams, Blake Davis).  Andino rode out the year and the team succeeded despite his performance (-0.6).

Second base is actually a position of great possibility.  As we discussed earlier, the level of talent on the Orioles was closer to an 81 win team instead of a 93 win team.  Improvements are needed and, with approximately a -1.5 WAR coming from the position, second is a great place to target for improvement.

First, what options are available internally?

Internal		LHP	RHP		LHP 40g	RHP 110g
	Age	wRC+	wRC+	Defense	WAR	WAR	WAR
Robert Andino	29	76	63	0	0.2	-0.1	0.1
Ryan Flaherty	26	64	80	-5	-0.2	0.5	0.3
Brian Roberts	35	49	61	-10	-0.6	-1.0	-1.6
Omar Quintanilla	31	41	74	0	-0.5	0.5	0.0
Steve Tolleson	29	73	71	0	0.2	0.3	0.5
LJ Hoes	23	81	77	-10	0.1	-0.1	0.0
Jonathan Schoop	22	68	54	0	0.1	-0.6	-0.6
Ryan Adams	26	84	75	-5	0.3	0.2	0.4
Blake Davis	30	41	62	5	-0.4	0.2	-0.2

At this moment, it is clear the organization is without much value at second base for the 2013 season.  Two players with the greatest potential here are LJ Hoes and Jonathan Schoop.  Hoes never really took to second base with the glove and now profiles more as a left fielder.  The bat might currently play at second as a marginal player, but that glove will be a severe impediment.  Schoop's defense is better than Hoes, but not special by any means.  His range is limited and might become even more limited as he fills out.  Right now though, his bat is still likely a year away for second base.

It appears that any decent solution for the Orioles at second will come from outside the organization. 

Free Agency		LHP	RHP		LHP 40g	RHP 110g
	Age	wRC+	wRC+	Defense	WAR	WAR	WAR
Ronny Cedeno	30	65	70	5	0.1	0.6	0.8
Mike Fontenot	33	58	95	-5	-0.3	1.3	1.0
Kelly Johnson	31	89	93	-5	0.4	1.2	1.6
Jeff Keppinger	33	116	65	-10	1.0	-0.7	0.3
Freddy Sanchez	34	75	96	0	0.2	1.8	2.0
Marco Scutaro	37	86	95	-5	0.3	1.3	1.6

* - Originally, the model I used neglected that Sanchez missed the entirety of 2012 with a back injury.  I need to rerun those numbers as it would significantly drop his value.  Off the top of my head, I am thinking that he profiles more as a spring training invite sort of player.
** - The Keppinger splits were flipped.  That has now been corrected.  Sorry for all of the post-publishing edits.  I noticed that I had flipped some values and thought I had corrected them.

All six of these free agents are projected as providing better performance than any of the Orioles' internal options.  Fontenot would need to sit against southpaw starters and Keppinger would sit against right handers.  Both provide cringe inducing defense, but the offense is good enough to compensate if deployed properly.  Johnson and Scutaro project as more full timers in the field.  Some concerns about this group is the age of the players.  Free agent second basemen are often a risk because of age.  A general manager needs to think long and hard before going ahead and offering a multi-year deal.  From my perspective, I think none of them will require a multi-year deal except for Marco Scutaro whose uber-McLouth redemption with the Giants may have raised his profile for a few teams to consider as a free agent.  I would imagine something in the neighborhood of 3-8 MM for one year would be sufficient depending on how the money rolls out this off season.

Is there a cheaper model available in the non-tender candidates?

Non-tender		LHP	RHP		LHP 40g	RHP 110g
	Age	wRC+	wRC+	Defense	WAR	WAR	WAR
E. Burriss	28	5	62	0	-1.3	-0.2	-1.4
Alexi Casilla	28	91	58	0	0.5	-0.4	0.1
Brent Lillibridge	29	41	34	-10	-0.8	-2.5	-3.3
Jayson Nix	30	86	72	5	0.6	0.8	1.3
Ian Stewart	28	70	81	-10	-0.2	0.2	0.0
Luis Valbuena	27	68	76	-5	-0.1	0.2	0.2

I would say the answer is a comfortable 'no.'  Jayson Nix might be the only player worth signing to a MLB deal.  I would entertain any of them as Spring Training invites.

Recommendation

If I was in control of the team, I would non-tender Robert Andino and focus on the free agent class.  I would talk with Kelly Johnson, Jeff Keppinger, Freddy Sanchez, and Marco Scutaro to determine what their asking prices would be.  I would hope to secure one of them for a one year deal at less than 5 million.  Keppinger should come at an even lower cost.  I would entertain the possibility of an option year with buyout.  As a backup, rolling the dice on is Valbuena or Alexi Casilla as a spring training invite to compete with Flaherty, Schoop, and Andino (if he accepts to come back at a lower cost).  I would also give LJ Hoes one last shot to be guided by Buck's staff in playing second base.  Additionally, I suggest the same offer as I mentioned last year, which would be to ask Brian Roberts to transition into a coaching/scouting role with the team or finding a business related position in the front office.  He is a Baltimore Oriole and has been a wonderful member of the organization.  It is unfortunate what he has had to suffer over the past few years, but he seems to be a solid individual and any organization could use someone like that.

Free Agents - Second Base

This is the third of a series of posts on free agents.

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | DH | SP | RHRP | LHRP

It is with sadness that I must say that I have no expectation that Brian Roberts will ever be a meaningful part of the Baltimore Orioles on the field.  Effort must be given to replace him at second.  In this post, we will look at available free agent options and who the Orioles have internally.

For the purpose of this post, we are using the following groupings:

Elite: Greater than 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Good: 3.5 to 4.5 WAR / 600 PA
Above Average: 2.5 to 3.5 WAR / 600 PA
Average: 1.5 to 2.5 WAR / 600 PA
Poor Starter: 0.75 to 1.5 WAR / 600 PA
Backup: Below 0.75 WAR / 600 PA

Jamey Carroll might be a good target.

No one below a projected 0.75 WAR should be offered anything more than a minor league contract with an invite to training camp.  The values were calculated by weighting performance of the past three seasons normalized each year to 600 PA.  This ranking does not consider injury status which will likely affect some players.

Good (3.5 - 4.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Kelly Johnson (3.5)
I have thought well of Johnson for a while, but no one seems to think of him as a good player.  I might be missing something.

Above Average (2.5 - 3.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Jamey Carroll (3.2)
Carroll is another second baseman who has flown under that radar.  He provides very good defense and simply gets on base.  He is not flashy whatsoever, but he does the little things well.
Nick Punto (3.2)
Punto has always had an amazing glove.  It gives him a great deal of value.  Much of his projection here has to do with his hitting performance this past season.  I think the projection is overly inflated.  I think he is a good example of using projection as a rough number that needs to be used with other tools.  Statistics alone, or any tool alone, is not a good way to make decisions.  That said, a metric rating a player higher than you expected sometimes gives you pause and reconsider the players' worth.  Personally, I think he very good year at the plate last year does not accurately portray his true talent level and skews the projection.
Jerry Hairston Jr. (2.6)
Hairston has a decent bat and he can still provide above average defense at second.  He has recently been used as a super-sub, but he really belongs at second.

Average (1.5 - 2.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Clint Barmes (2.2)
Barmes provides some power and excellent defense at second.  It made little sense for the Astros making him untouchable during the deadline, but he can produce.
Mark Ellis (2.1)
During the summer, Ellis was rumored as a player the Orioles were scouting thoroughly with plans of signing him in the off season.  Hopefully, it would be cheap if they do engage because he will be 35 and coming off a poor season.
Aaron Hill (1.8)
After two underwhelming seasons, Hill bounced back last year.  It looked like a last hurrah to me.

Below Average (0.75 - 1.5 WAR / 600 PA)
Adam Kennedy (1.2)
His projection is due almost entirely to his 2009 season.  Not a good indication.
Willie Bloomquist (1.1)
Bloomquist is a more athletic version of Cuddyer with a much lesser bat.  He plays several positions and none of them well.
Robert Andino (0.9)
Andino's value here may be below his true talent level after his solid performance last year.
Ryan Adams (0.8)
The bats plays at second, the glove does not.

The Rest (less than 0.75 WAR / 600 PA)
Craig Counsell (0.5), Aaron Miles (0.3), Jose Lopez (0.2), Felipe Lopez (0.2), Orlando Cabrera (-0.3), Bill Hall (-0.5), Alex Cora (-0.7), and Cesar Izturis (-1.9).

Number of 2B Over the Age of 32 since 1971

 

Tom Verducci recently mentioned that the decrease in older 2B (32 and over with over 130 games at 2B) is due to drug testing.  I find that a bit presumptuous.  The data has not been entirely corrected and there is a greater focus on the value of defense over offense, so there are certainly several reasons why there may be a decrease in older 2B.  It should be noted four other players at the age of 32 had over 100 starts at second, so it might not be as big an issue as Verducci claims.  Then again, this would not be the first time Verducci makes a grand claim without actual evidence (i.e. the Verducci Effect).

Brian Roberts and the Aging of Second Basemen

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Concern has been mounting over Brian Roberts' back as he has been held out of several practices.  He has downplayed the severity of this injury.  This typically would not be of much concern were it not for two issues:

1. Historically, second basemen fall apart in their early thirties.
2. Last year, Roberts was injured during Spring Training and similarly played down concerns over an injury that wound up shutting him down for the majority of the season.

In this post, I would like to establish what could be expected from a population of second basemen who performed similarly to Roberts over their Age 27 to 31 seasons and how that population performed from Age 32 to 36.  I took this population from players whose Age 27 to 31 seasons occurred from 1950 to 2005 and who generated a WAR of 12 to 22.  This group includes Bobby Grich, Davey Johnson, Robby Thompson, Chuck Knoblauch, Lou Whitaker, Dick McAuliffe, Ray Durham, Johnny Ray, Bill Doran, Willie Randolph, Ron Hunt, Damion Easley, Tom Herr, and Johnny Temple.  As a group they had an OPS+ of 109 +/- 8, a WAR of 16.6 +/- 3.3, an OBP of .360, and a SLG of .401.  Brian Roberts, during his age 27 to 31 years, had an OPS of 115, a WAR of 17.9, an OBP of .369, and a SLG of .451. 

After the jump, a run through of graphs showing what can be expected in terms of plate appearances, WAR, chance of being an average player, and chance of remaining in the Majors.

Age Curves for 2B Fielding

This will be a continuation of the recent Brian Roberts articles, but also the beginning of a new series. We often mention how certain positions age differently or utilize certain skills that are often age dependent. When it comes to fielding there are two main considerations when it comes to generating outs: the ability to field "cleanly" and range. Fielding cleanly or fielding efficiency is a skill that maximizes when the player has had experience at the MLB level. Aging will affect efficiency, but not to a great extent. Range on the other hand is heavily affected by aging, or that is what I would assume. As a player ages, he should experience decreased ability to cover the same territory or have his reaction time slow.

Revised Zone Rating (RZR) will be used as a surrogate for fielding efficiency. This metric assumes there is a given territory that a defender should be expected to cover. Of all the balls that pass through this zone, outs are recorded and compared to the number of chances. This is not ideal as RZR will be effected eventually by decreased range, but it should be rather representative because players are typically moved off positions if they are so unable to defend this standardized area.

Out of Zone (OOZ) Plays will be used to represent range. These plays are those that are made outside of the zone designated to the position. Again, there are potential issues. If a defender is playing next to a player who has great range then the number of OOZ plays he can accrue will probably be reduced. The resulting effect may not be great because several players seasons will be used to determine the aging curve line.

The data was collected from the Hardball Times fielding statistics. Fielding performance was recorded from 2004-2007. Out of Zone plays for each player was divided by the number of innings played and normalized over 162 9 inning games. Ages were then determined and applied to the seasons. Ages with less than three data points were removed from consideration. Only full time players were considered.

Second Baseman Fielding Age Curves
The curves depicted to the right show the effect of age on fielding efficiency (orange) and range (black). It should be noted that each horizontal mark represents five plays. For instance, if a player moves from one horizontal line to the next over the course of two seasons then the player has improved or declined by five plays. A single play is worth about 0.6 runs, so each line represents 3 runs saved or lost. Fielding efficiency maxes out around age 30 or 31. Range is maximized at age 23 or 24. Ages 27 to 29 are when fielding ability is greatest for second basemen as their efficiency rises and their range has not been greatly compromised.

The curves may be surprising. Well, they are surprising to me. I would expect them to have a much wider range in terms of efficiency and range. What may explain why I do not see this is that the tail end of the curve is being dictated by guys who can still play the position. Players who are not able to field are no longer at those position and would not be able to be included in the study.

Conclusion
Second base appears to be a position of considerable skill. It takes several years before fielding efficiency is optimized. Taking this data into consideration, defensive second basemen are hurt by free agency for the most part (or the organizations who sign them). After the renewal system and arbitration cycles take their turns, defensive minded second basemen hit free agency with their better days behind them. It is more likely that the dropoff is far more severe than depicted on these curves due to older 2B neutralizing the aging effect.

Brian Roberts and the General Aging Curve

The recent talk about potentially acquiring Rickie Weeks for Brian Roberts has brought up an uneasy reality. Brian Roberts will not be an above average second baseman for much longer. Many of us remember when he was battling Jerry Hairston, Jr. for playing time or impersonating a home run king. Many of us remember him breaking his arm and the 18 months it took for him to get back to his playing shape. During this dark period of Orioles history, Brian Roberts was the brightest and biggest star we had. He sometimes wondered aloud if the Orioles had any intention of becoming competitive, but he never whined about it or demanded a trade. He has been a near perfect ball player (what hGH?).

The problem now is that we have a time line in terms of when the Orioles will be competitive. We are not competitive right now. We are about three very good players from that point. We need upgrades at first base, third base, and shortstop. We probably need one at DH, too. Our pitching, at the moment, is solidly average. This offseason we could address first base with Teixeira and SS with Furcal. Nothing looks like a steep improvement in the following free agent class. That is the basic problem we have. We can improve in the short-term, but not the long term. This is where Brian Roberts falls. He is great for us in the short-term, but not for the long-term. His ability is probably worth about 3 games to us over a replacement level 2b, but when the difference is between 78 and 75 wins . . . what is the point? It makes sense to use his talent and exchange it for a piece or pieces that will actually be able to contribute in the future.

Now, some would argue that the point of baseball is to win games and that sending away talent is foolish. Well, that is simply short-sighted. Baseball is not about winning games. It is about winning championships. You are doing one of two things in baseball if you are successful: 1) sustaining a championship caliber team or 2) building a championship caliber team. Trying to be a 78 win team instead of a 75 win team does not always mean you are closing the gap toward becoming a champion. What shocks me is that people do not understand that this method of playing the middle is what we have done for 10 years. We have many examples of this behavior:
1. Signing Ramon Hernandez
2. Signing Dannys Baez, Chad Bradford, and Jamie Walker
3. Trading for Kris Benson
4. Trading for Jaret Wright
and so on and so on.
Spending millions of dollars that could be spent on signing bonuses to high contract demand draftees or exploiting latin american talent is where this money should go. We should not be giving up 10 MM or so and a draft pick for Dannys Baez. These short term moves immobilizes cash flow and places it in diminishing return investments. It has been thought that free agents place winning high in their choices of going somewhere or not. Well, that is true to an extent. What is also true is that if you marginalize yourself with 78 win talent, you may get the occasional free agent. It should be recognized that few good players hit free agency at a young age due to the increasing commonality of signing extensions. Acquiring marginal talent is an incredibly inefficient way to build a team. Out of the 100 MM dollars spent on the six players itemized, how many top tier amateur domestic and international players could we have signed? That is the problem with trying to net free agents through slight increases in play. You undercut your minor league player development with guys who you can sign as opposed to who is the best player.

So, yes, Brian Roberts is approaching that stage. He is a very good second baseman, but we are devoting money to him that will not help us become a championship team. To the right is a generalized age curve (from The Hardball Times). That should fit Brian Roberts age curve somewhat well. He is a second baseman, which narrows the curve. He also has above average power and great plate discipline, so that should extend it to about where it is now. It is pretty amazing how the graph matches Roberts career line. Right now his OPS+ is 121. In the projection under unlimited number of at bats, this is what we could expect:
2008 110 OPS+
2009 109 OPS+
2010 103 OPS+
2011 94 OPS+
2012 90 OPS+
2013 73 OPS+
The italics denote what an average 2B hits. It should be noted that this worth is with respect to average defensive play. Roberts play, which was very good three years ago, has been in steady decline since. This year he is actually below average. Based on UZR, he is the fifth worst defensive second baseman in the game. This could be the result of having played only a third of the season, but I doubt that changes much. In all likelihood, Roberts will be an average 2B in 2010 as opposed to 2012. By the time he is 34, he will be a bench player. His past career may be able to keep him a roster spot. He should be out of baseball by the time he is 37. Now, I should add the caveat that this is the generalized aging curve. He may be different as I mentioned before i think his eye and his slight power has him keep the curve even though he plays second base.

To compare with other second basemen, I have written a list of All Star 2B and when they became roughly average (solely based on batting, inclusion of fielding may reduce these by a year or two):
Willie Randolph 35 (last year 37)
Manny Trillo 31 (last year 38)
Lou Whittaker 37 (last year 38)
Steve Sax 31 (last year 34)
Roberto Alomar 33 (last year 36)
Carlos Baerga 26 (last year 36)
Ryne Sandberg 33 (last year 36)
Tommy Herr 33 (last year 35)
Mariano Duncan 30 (last year 34)
Jay Bell 34 (last year 37)
This list is filled with guys who had significant power, speed, and/or plate discipline. Almost across the board you see precipitous decline in performance with second basemen. The best you could hope for within these comps is Willie Randolph. With the increasing likelihood that Roberts has issues with defending his position, I'm not sure Randolph is a good comp because Brian might have to shift off 2B.

Should we extend Roberts contract if he wishes to stay in Baltimore?
Well, it depends. We can trade him now for cheaper talent that is more likely to increase our ability to contend as well as increase cash flow for reinvestment. Or, we can extend him at market value (~10MM) for four seasons (2010-2013) for average to below average production from a 2B. I would like to say Roberts is an essential piece toward attaining a championship in Baltimore. In fact, that is probably true. Sadly, his contribution will be to be traded for cheaper talent that will be better than Roberts when this franchise is able to hold its own against the best teams in the league.

Oh, OK, 2B Free Agents

Rob writes:


Hey Crawdaddy, I know Brian Roberts is going to stay for the next few years, but what is your take on the 2B market after this year? Do you think there is anyone there to replace our Gomez-Bynum-Fahey beast?

Thanks,
Bryan -------


Well . . . I decided to finally answer an email, which is not really all that impressive as I receive few of them and rarely do anything with them. But, Rob is correct and I should have addressed that. Also, being refered to as Crawdaddy is weird.

Anyway, free agent 2B:

Guys who'll demand to start-

Luis Castillo, Twins . . . average defensive second baseman with the same offensive skills he has had. He is one of the most consistent ball players around primarily because he can only do two things: 1) hit for contact and 2) walk. He used to have more speed, but was never that adept a baserunner . . . he sure tried though. He will hit a pretty dry market and he should fetch a four year deal for about 6MM a year.

Jeff Kent, Dodgers . . . weird career path. He was pretty average until age 30 and he just continues to clean up. He has regressed from his peak, but still puts up above average offensive numbers to go along with below average defense. He'll see a 2 year deal at 9 or 10MM. He'll be a better deal than Castillo, but is riskier for an immediate decline. Particularly if a truck needs cleaning.

Borderline:

Taduhitu Iguchi, White Sox . . . for those who cannot afford Luis . . . Tad is your man. He is a marginal starter. Since his first year, he has regressed each season. He can pass as a low end starter next year, but will probably be relegated to a backup role in '09 for certain. I can see him lasting long in free agency unless he quickly realizes no one really wants him to start. Then again, Ned Colletti is crazy. 3MM as a backup or 5MM as a starter. I could see him destroying his own value and going as low as 2MM.

Mark Loretta, Astros . . . probably the best utility man to be had this off season, but with another plus offensive season, someone might want to make him a starter. He could probably be had for a 1 year deal at 4MM.

Mark Grudzeilanek, Royals . . . he should also be a utility guy. Some crazy team could give him 4MM to start or some savvy team could pay him 2MM to backup a couple positions. Though, he has a player option for 4MM . . . he'll probably stay.

Marcus Giles, Padres . . . the team has an option on him for 4MM. They won't pick it up. Giles doesnt have the defensive skill or offensive talent to be worth that anymore. I don't think anyone would be willing to pay it. I could see him dumped and waiting long into the offseason to backup a club in the playoff hunt. To think, if he went to arbitration the Braves would have had to hand him 6MM. He is a 2MM guy.

Ronnie Belliard, Nats . . . how did he find a place to start? Well, he is doing quite well and can probably trick a team like the Royals or Dodgers into giving him a 3 year deal around 5MM or so.



The rest?
Chris Gomez, Jerry Hairston Jr, Miguel Cairo, Damion Easley, Chris Woodward.

Not much.

Breaking Down the Orioles 40 man roster - 2B

2B
Brians Roberts

Brian Roberts - Roberts was the last and final 1st round pick of the Orioles infamous 1999 7 man 1st round. He is the only one to amount to anything, but he sure has amounted to quite a lot. His minor league track record suggested he would never amount to much. He always had a great eye, but had issues with contact rate and power. It was originally thought he would make a decent double play team with Jerry Hairston, Jr who had held his own against minor league pitching. Hairston's injuries and a resigned Mike Bordick dictated the Roberts try his hand at second. So began the Orioles 2B battle, which lasted for two years and an uncomfortable lame duck third season. During those years, Roberts bat emerged to go along with his plate patience. Handed the starting job in 2004, his power potential also arose as he hit 50 doubles. For a young player an upswing in secondary power suggests more power to come. His 2005 campaign saw him triple his HR career high mark. He also smacked 45 doubles. Unfortunately, late that season against the Yanks, Roberts suffered a horrible broken arm at first base. This injury carried over into the next season and resulted in a severe dropped in power as his power fly rate was cut in half and his groundball percentage rose about 15%. In other words, with his arms failing him, he turned to his legs. So far in 2007, his batting eye is just fine. He still has yet to regained his secondary power. One has to wonder if it will ever come back. He has remained rather productive with doubles, but everything tends to indicate they are weak gappers. This would suggest that in another three or four years, those gappers may drop a bit sooner and become only singles. Three or four years and that speed will begin to whittle away. Three or four years and that strong to average defense will begin to lose its range. Now, he is a very good ball player and will continue to be for five or six more years.

4.2MM this year
6.3MM '08 and 8MM in '09

Thoughts: This is an amazing deal. A 800+ OPS 2B is worth more than 18.5MM over the next three years. He is getting the same as Huff while playing a far more difficult position. Crazy. He is our 2B for the next two and a half years and he'll get a huge payday from someone for 2010.

No one else to speak of on the Major League roster. You could argue Bynum, but he is an outfielder. You could argue Gomez, but he is a strict utility guy. Brandon Fahey is just such a horrible hitter. I cannot see him being considered. The same goes to Luis Hernandez.

AAA
Cesar Crespo. Filler. Decent eye and can provide backup on the bench, but will never translate well to the majors as shown by his two stints with the Padres and one with the Bosox. He has always be a somewhat patient mistake hitter in the minors. That rarely translates well in the majors. If he hones himself and finds an opening, he could become a poor man's Chris Gomez.

AA
Paco Figueroa. Interesting player. He won't be a star, but he could be a pretty good backup. He was an old collegiate player at Miami and his first pro year was 2006 in HiA Frederick at the age of 23. He displayed a good eye and absolutely no power. He has speed, but is horrible on the basepaths. This year at Bowie . . . really good eye and nothing else. His double rate has bounced up 30%. He is still older than his competition, but he looks like a solid bench player in the majors. In all honesty, I think he should be in AAA next year. I could see him hitting about 780-820 OPS there. He'll be a better option than Fahey as a backup come '09. An organization needs guys like this.

HiA
Gera Alvarez. Showed early displays on on base prowess, but had some rough skills. He always performed average against younger competition and fell apart in AA last year as a 26 year old. He won't ever get to AAA. He seems like a nice guy though and should probably start thinking about managing.

Jonathan Tucker. Interesting. Really interesting. He is another guy like Crespo who is a little too old for his league, but is displaying similar skills. Last year he played some outfield, but has been seeing more time this year again at 2B. He has no future in the OF with his vapid power. He has a good eye. A really good eye. 42 walks to 29 strikouts this year. That is awfully nice. Though he is a 24 year old in HiA ball. Backup material. He should make it to AAA, but may be 27 when he does.

Mid A
Miguel Abreu. Well, he has some power. Playing against slightly younger competition, he has shown he can hit the ball deep, but he has absolutely no ability to walk. His power should get even better, but if he is having difficulty taking a pitch in the Salley league . . . he is going to be stymied in AA and AAA ball when guys can actually pitch.

Low A
Ryan Adams. He is still young, but he has never given much of an indication he can hit the ball. Very good defense for a guy his age. He may be Brandon Fahey part duex, but younger. He was average offensively at Bluefield. With the Ironbirds, he is struggling something awful. Not Jay Gibbons circa 2007 awful, but not good. He looks like a backup as well.

Rookie Ball
Wow, are our Bluefield teams always this old? They are all in their 20s. Are we now using it to weed out college signings who play with poor competition? Anyway, here we have mercy draftee Eric Perlozzo and Pedro Silveren. Perlozzo is Sammy P's son, who is a nice kid from what I remember. A friend of mine dated Perlozzo's daughter in college . . . hmm, maybe they are married now. Anyway, he is from Shippensburg and is overmatched at the moment. Silveren? He was an international signee at age 21. Not good. He is repeating Bluefield. Not good. Perlozzo is getting most of the at bats. Not good. Anyway, I think Silveren will be going away after the year. Eric Perlozzo will probably not get the promotion to Aberdeen, but may repeat Bluefield and see it next year. I would be shocked if we ever see him in Bowie though.

Free Agency
No point, we have Roberts through '09.


Conclusion: We have nothing in the pipeline, but we don't need anything. Crespo or Tucker could be a patch job in '10. It won't be good, but it could do. If they trot back out in '11, we could be in trouble. Or . . . they could transform like Roberts and get dedicated to the gym.