Oliver!


Joe Reisel's Archives




Oliver Drake, consider yourself a major-league caliber pitcher. Photo courtesy of Steven Goldburg/Norfolk Tides.

On June 21, the Orioles recalled relief pitcher Oliver Drake from their AAA affiliate, the Norfolk Tides. I believed that promotion was long overdue, even granting that the Orioles have had several right-handed relief pitchers, because Drake had pitched very effectively. For example, I didn't understand why the Orioles promoted the relatively inexperienced Mychal Givens when Drake was pitching more effectively at a higher level and had a longer track record than Givens.

There's no denying that Oliver Drake has pitched very well for Norfolk. Last season, Drake had a 0.82 ERA - and allowed zero unearned runs - while striking out 66 batters in 44 innings. He did walk 16 in those 44 innings, but he balanced that by only allowing 23 hits and 1 home run. This season, he had a period during which he struggled, but he still has a 2.02 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. He has allowed more baserunners - 13 walks and 18 hits in those 26 2/3 innings - but over is last 12 innings, he allowed no runs on 5 hits and 2 walks, with 23 strikeouts.

I believe that almost any pitcher who can be as effective as Oliver Drake has been in AAA can and probably should be an effective major-league set-up man, and there's an excellent chance he could be an effective closer at least for a short time. After all, Jim Henderson closed for a season. When you compare Henderson to Drake, it's ludicrous to think that Oliver Drake can't be a closer.

I do understand the reasoning why Drake hasn't been given a real opportunity. He relies heavily on a trick pitch, his forkball / splitter. And he has a deceptive delivery in which he hides the ball from the batter for a long period. There is a legitimate fear that such trickery won't work against big-league hitters and that batters are swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. The thinking is that major-league hitters will not be fooled and will lay off the non-strikes, forcing Drake to throw his rather ordinary fastball for strikes. The batters will respond by hitting him hard and Drake will be ineffective.

While I have no real way of telling whether major-league hitters will be fooled by his deception, I can look at his performance to see if batters are swinging at pitches out of the zone. Over the past two years, I've scored 77 Norfolk games, 50 in 2015 and 27 so far in 2016. We can look at Drake's pitching and determine if Drake is getting a low percentage of called strikes. The theory behind this is that if Drake isn't getting a low percentage of called strikes, then batters aren't exclusively swinging and missing at pitches out of the strike zone and that Drake can be effective even when he's throwing pitches in the strike zone.

The below table shows the results of the pitches I've Drake throw over the past two seasons:

	Called Ball	Called Strike	Swinging Strike	Foul	In-Play
2015	75	29	50	39	25
2016	77	45	36	36	24

That I've seen Drake throw the same number of pitches in the 27 games I've scored in 2016 as in the 50 games I scored in 2015 is simply luck of the draw; for a variety of reasons I've seen more of the games in which Drake pitched this year than last. That the number of pitches is exactly the same is sheer coincidence.

The data shows that when Drake was extraordinarily effective in 2015, Drake got more strikes on swings in 2015 than he has in 2016. But I don't think the data necessarily implies that batters swung at pitches out of the strike zone in 2015 and stopped doing so in 2016. If that were the case, then Drake would have substantially more called balls in 2016 than in 2015. He doesn't. To me, it's more likely that batters were swinging and missing at borderline pitches in 2015 and taking them in 2016. That would imply that Drake doesn't rely on batters swinging at "bad" pitches and that he doesn't necessarily have to throw more hittable pitches.

Oliver Drake has been extremely effective in AAA over the past season-and-a-half. He's earned a real shot at a major-league job. The Orioles have a very good and very deep bullpen, so Drake may be limited to mop-up roles. He's not the "ideal" relief pitcher candidate because he doesn't have a high-90's fastball, but he has earned a real shot at a big-league job. I believe that Drake should be an effective seventh- or eighth-inning reliever and wouldn't have a problem giving him a chance at being a closer.

(Since this article was originally written, Drake was optioned back to Norfolk after two ineffective outings. Two ineffective outings, of course, mean very little and I stand by the opinions expressed in this article.)

Orioles Re-Sign Four 2015 Norfolk Tides

Joe Reisel's Archives

The Orioles' big-ticket moves have justifiably received most of our and your attention this off-season. But the Orioles organization consists of more than the major-league team; the Orioles have to stock four full-season, two short-season, and two Dominican Summer League minor-league affiliates. To complete the rosters of their upper-level affiliates, the Orioles, like all organizations, sign free agents to minor-league contracts. This offseason, the Orioles re-signed several players who were in their farm system for much of 2015. Four of them saw a lot of action at Norfolk and are likely to start 2016 there, assuming that they don't get released in spring training.

While this article may include some rudimentary statistical analysis, the conclusions are primarily based on my subjective observations during the 2015 season. In 2015, I scored - either as the MiLb.com datacaster or as a scorer for Baseball Info Solutions - 50 Norfolk Tides games.

Pedro Beato, relief pitcher

Pedro Beato was re-signed after being credited with 16 saves in 2015. Photo courtesy of Norfolk Tides/Les Treagus.

Pedro Beato returned to the Orioles in 2015, four years after the Mets selected him in the December 2010 Rule 5 draft. Beato spent 2015 at Norfolk. He served as a set-up reliever to Oliver Drake and as the closer when Drake was in Baltimore. He was credited with 16 saves and a 5-5 won-loss record. He had 2.65 ERA, surrendered 66 hits (five home runs) in 74 2/3 innings with 25 walks and 61 strikeouts. Although he struck out fewer batters than you'd like from a relief pitcher, his performance reflected in these statistics suggest that he could be another Brad Brach or Chaz Roe.

And he could. But I'm not convinced. It seemed to me that he was hit harder than reflected in his numbers. And it seemed that when he struggled, he was unable to right himself. He also was less effective late in the season, although that was probably caused by overwork as most of the bullpen was less effective late in the season. When he entered a game late in the season, I had zero confidence that he would be effective.

Beato could pitch well at Norfolk early in the season, and if he does, could get a call-up if Baltimore needs bullpen help. It's possible that he could pitch well in a low-leverage role - there are plenty of relief pitchers who've had one good 40-inning season - but he's unlikely to have long-term success.

Terry Doyle, starting pitcher (?)



Over 1/4 of Terry Doyle's career minor-league wins were earned in 2015. Photo courtesy of Norfolk Tides/Les Treagus.

The Orioles re-signed Terry Doyle after he went 16-2 with a 2.16 ERA in a 2015 season split between AA Bowie and AAA Norfolk. And he pitched 158 2/3 innings in 26 games (21 starts.) There's nothing wrong with those numbers, and Doyle truly is a valuable pitcher.

As a minor-leaguer. It should be no surprise that Doyle went 12-1, 1.97 at AA; he was a 29-year-old who had already had two good seasons in AAA. He began 2015 as a long reliever at Bowie and moved into the rotation when Elih Villanueva was temporarily promoted to Norfolk. He stayed in the rotation because he pitched very well and because Dylan Bundy was injured. Doyle was promoted to Norfolk in August when trades and promotions wiped out the Norfolk rotation. He continued to pitch well.

Doyle relies on control and command of mediocre stuff to get batters out. As I said, he's valuable in the minor leagues because he can effectively eat up innings, because he can (and has been) used as both a starter and as a relief pitcher, and because he accepts his role. He'll only make the major leagues as a desperation/emergency alternative, but he'll remain in the minor league until his stuff declines from mediocre to poor.

Andy Oliver, relief pitcher

Andy Oliver joined the Orioles system in 2015 after being released by Tampa Bay. With Norfolk, he was used as a middle-to-long relief pitcher; although he's left-handed, he wasn't used as a left-handed relief specialist. He was a top prospect in the Detroit organization after he was drafted, but failed his first major-league trial. Then he completely lost his control, which was never good to begin with. He can strike batters out - he averaged 10 1/2 strikeouts per nine innings last season - but in his career he's walked nearly six batters per nine innings.

I dreaded Oliver's entering a game because there was a good chance that he would be wild and ineffective. And when he's off, he's really off - a lot of long, slow innings with a lot of pitches. But occasionally he would have his control and he'd be effective. And, because he had been a starter for much of his career, he's capable of pitching multiple innings in an outing.

It's conceivable that Oliver will suddenly find his control, pitch well in the minors, and earn a shot in the major leagues. It's more likely that Oliver will continue to struggle, get off to a poor start, and get released after a few awful games in a row.

Sharlon Schoop, infielder

Sharlon Schoop is Jonathan Schoop's older brother. From 2010 through 2012, he had been a AA utility infielder in the Giants and Royals systems. He signed with the Orioles before the 2013 season; he missed 2013 with an injury and spent 2014 in his accustomed utility-infielder role at Bowie. He started 2015 at Bowie, and was promoted to Norfolk when Jayson Nix was released. He primarily played second base when Rey Navarro was injured or spelling Paul Janish at shortstop.

Schoop hasn't hit in the past two years; he hasn't posted an OPS above .600 in his two years in the Orioles system. (That implies that he's either had an on-base percentage below .300, a slugging percentage below .300, or both.) He played a competent but unremarkable second base, at least in comparison to Rey Navarro. I don't think he has the range for shortstop or the arm for third base.

I wouldn't be surprised if, for roster-management reasons, Schoop started 2016 back at Bowie. I see no reason to think that he'll see the major-league roster, except possibly as a reward for loyal service.

Chris Jones - Future LOOGY? Or A New T.J. McFarland?

Joe Reisel's Archives

The Orioles acquired Chris Jones when they traded Luis Ayala. Photo courtesy of Les Treagus/Norfolk Tides

Most of Orioles' fans attention has, quite rightly, been focused on the big-name players with whom the Orioles have been linked - Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes. These are players who will account for a large percentage of the Orioles' financial outlays and who will, most likely, have the greatest impact on their 2016 season and beyond. Given that, it may seem trivial to look at left-handed pitcher Chris Jones, a twenty-seven-year-old pitcher who has never pitched in the major leagues and has only twice sniffed his organization's top-prospect lists.
Yet, there are a couple of reasons why Jones is worth examining. First, the Orioles have gotten a lot of mileage out of pitchers with similar or inferior credentials - Chaz Roe, T.J. McFarland, Brad Brach, even Miguel Gonzalez. Second, the Orioles added Jones to their 40-man roster in November, to make sure that he wouldn't be granted minor-league free agency. And third - most intriguing - they have kept him on the 40-man roster while letting go of Junior Lake, Rey Navarro, just-acquired Edgar Olmos, and former top-ten prospect Tim Berry. Clearly, the Orioles believe that Jones is more than the typical career minor-leaguer.

This is the second time Jones has been added to the Orioles' 40-man roster. He was added after the 2013 season and then, in a procedural move, was released and re-signed at the start of spring training 2014. (Nelson Cruz took his roster spot.) The first time he was added to the Orioles' 40-man roster after the 2013 season, I looked at his 2013 season to see if he might be an effective left-handed spot relief pitcher. In that article, I concluded that Jones was substantially more effective against left-handed batters and consequently seemed to have a future as a lefty relief specialist.

Jones, however, was used mostly out of the bullpen in 2013. In both 2014 and 2015 with Norfolk, he began the year as a spot starter-long relief pitcher but moved into the rotation as other pitchers got hurt, called up, or traded. In 2015, Jones worked out of the bullpen in April but moved into the rotation when T.J. McFarland was recalled; he stayed in the rotation the rest of the season and ended up with 22 starts, 8 relief appearances, and 150 innings pitched. He even started games 2 and 4 of the Tides' playoff series against Columbus (Game 2 was stopped by rain after Jones pitched two innings; Jones came back to start Game 4 after two days' rest.)

Pitching out of the bullpen in 2013, Jones was substantially more effective against left-handed pitchers in the games I saw:

.183/.259/.224 vs. Left
.320/.381/.493 vs. Right

In 2015, I saw 214 plate appearances against Chris Jones - 59 against left-handed batters and 155 against right-handed batters. The interesting thing is that working primarily as a starting pitcher, Jones pitched much worse against left-handed pitchers and much better against right-handed pitchers:

.340/.407/.440 vs. Left
.257/.284/.399 vs. Right

Even more interesting is that Jones' BB/K ratio was unacceptable against left-handed batters, but quite good against right-handed batters:

7/9 BB/K vs. Left
6/36 BB/K vs. Right

There is nothing notable in the plate appearances - for example, Jones didn't face obviously better left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters in 2015 - that explains this. It is true that the left side of the Norfolk infield - generally, Paul Janish and Michael Almazar - was slightly better defensively than the right side of the Norfolk infield - Rey Navarro/Sharlon Schoop and Christian Walker. But it's unlikely that the difference was so great as to explain all the difference.

It's certainly a possibility that Jones' true abilities are not as extreme as the data I've gathered would indicate and that his splits were exaggerated by random chance. But it is also possible that Jones had a different approach in 2015 than he did in 2013. In 2013, the Orioles may have concluded that he would fit best as a left-handed relief specialist, and developed him accordingly. He may have adopted an approach that increased his effectiveness against left-handers while diminishing his effectiveness against right-handers. Then, for some reason, the Orioles may have changed their minds and decided that Jones would be more valuable as a swingman/starter (or that the AAA Norfolk Tides needed a starter and that Jones was the most viable option.) And so Jones then may have adopted an approach that sacrificed some of his effectiveness against left-handed batters while increasing his effectiveness against right-handed batters.

But that's just speculation. Given Jones' 2015 performance, my post-2013 conclusion that Chris Jones was unlikely to succeed in the T.J. McFarland long reliever/spot starter role must be discarded. As a rotation starter, he was successful against right-handed batters. In 2013, as a relief pitcher, he was successful against left-handed batters.

However, even if Jones' performance splits would be less extreme - he is truly more effective against left-handers than in 2015 and less effective against right-handers in 2015 - that would be a point in favor of his being able to fill the T.J. McFarland role. He would be more equally effective against left- and right-handed batters, and so would be more effective as a spot starter/long reliever.

Chris Jones is what the Orioles seem to want - a versatile pitcher with minor-league options available who can be called up and sent down as needed. For that reason, we should at least take note of his addition to the Orioles' roster. I expect him move several times between Norfolk and Baltimore in 2016.

Dariel Alvarez At The Plate

Joe Reisel's Archives

There is a difference of opinion among Orioles fans about Cuban expatriate outfielder Dariel Alvarez, who played the 2015 season at age 26. Some fans envision him as a solid right fielder for the Orioles because he has an outstanding defensive reputation and power (16 home runs with AAA Norfolk, which plays in a pitcher's park.) Others acknowledge his defense but see him as AAA roster filler because of his low on-base percentage (.305, also at AAA Norfolk), lack of strike-zone judgment, age, and pedigree as a lower-level Cuban signee.

In my roles as datacaster and BIS scorer, I got to see a lot of Dariel Alvarez. The strongest impressions I have of him as a hitter are him wildly swinging and missing at a pitch which looked to be far out of the strike zone. At least once Alvarez swung so hard at a pitch he missed that he went down to his knees. These memories leave me thinking that he will wildly swing at anything and everything, wasting at-bats like a modern-day Glenallen Hill.

But is this correct? Does Alvarez swing at everything? When he does swing, does he miss frequently? How, if at all, does this reveal itself in his performance? I will look at Alvarez' plate appearances in the games I saw, focusing on the individual pitches.

During the 2015 season, I scored 50 Norfolk Tides games, which incorporated 177 of Alvarez' plate appearances - just under 1/3 of his season. While not comprehensive, this is a reasonable sample and should give us a fairly good idea of what Alvarez does. The table below shows the results of each pitch Alvarez saw in those 177 plate appearances:

Pitch Result	Count
Ball / Hit by Pitch	208
Called Strike	80
Swinging Strike	44
Foul	114
Put in Play	152

First, Alvarez saw 598 pitches in those 177 plate appearances, or 3.38, per plate appearance. For comparison, the major-league Orioles saw an average of 3.81 pitches per plate appearance. So Alvarez does seem to be seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance than most other batters.

But my impression that Alvarez swings at everything and misses most of the pitches he swing at is wrong. In my experience, at the AAA level, the number of balls is about equal to the total number of called, swinging, and foul strikes. Although Alvarez does have more strikes than balls, the difference isn't extreme. What's more interesting is that, also in my experience, there is roughly an equal number of called strikes, swinging strikes, and foul balls. Alvarez has about half as many swinging strikes as usual and about one-and-a-half times as many foul balls. It seems clear that Alvarez is fouling off pitches that many other batters swing at and miss.

Another interesting breakdown is the number of times Dariel Alvarez concluded his plate appearance at a given count. In over 20% of the plate appearances I saw, Alvarez put the first pitch in play:

0-0	37
1-0	16
0-1	15
2-0	11
1-1	14
0-2	14
3-0	2
2-1	6
1-2	20
3-1	8
2-2	18
3-2	16

The table above shows that 37 times, the last pitch Alvarez saw was on a 0-0 count - the first pitch. 16 times, the last pitch was on a 1-0 count - the first pitch was a ball and he put the second pitch in play (or was hit by it.) And so on. Only twice was the last pitch on a 3-0 count, but that's not atypical - most of the time batters take the 3-0 pitch.

When Alvarez did put the first pitch in play, he produced at a .324/.324/.541 pace. That looks good compared to Alvarez' overall .275/.305/.424 numbers, but there's a catch. Batters can neither strike out nor walk on the first pitch, so to better evaluate Alvarez when he swings at the fist pitch we should compare that performance to his non-strikeout/walk performance. When not striking out or walking, Alvarez performed at a .314/.319/.483 pace. Alvarez hit with more power when putting the first pitch into play, but wasn't substantially better at getting on base. To be fair to Alvarez, all of these plate appearances occurred at Norfolk's Harbor Park, a pitcher's park, so Alvarez' performance is potentially better than it looks.

The most interesting is that Alvarez put the first pitch in play 37 times in 177 plate appearances, a much higher rate than usual. There are two possible explanations - either Alvarez swung at more first pitches than most batters or that Alvarez put into play more of the first pitches he swung at. In these 177 plate appearances, Alvarez took the first pitch 107 times and swung at the first pitch 70 times (putting 37 into play and missing or fouling off 33.) He swung at 39.5 percent of first pitches, which is high but not extraordinarily high (the Tides swung at between 35 and 40 percent of first pitches in 2015.)

Alvarez doesn't swing at and miss pitches; he swings at and puts pitches into play. Like some other prospects, such as Dodgers (and former Braves) prospect Jose Peraza, Alvarez is too good at making contact. Consequently, he has a relatively low strikeout total but a low walk total. But unlike Peraza and other players with "too-good" bat-to-ball skills, Alvarez has power. His .424 slugging percentage with Norfolk looks unimpressive, but Harbor Park is a bad park for power hitting; the Tides as a team slugged .353.

What makes Dariel Alvarez such a hard player to project is that there just aren't many players like him. He doesn't have a high on-base percentage (OBP) and probably won't contribute enough on offense to be a good right fielder, especially if major-league pitchers can take advantage of his willingness to swing. And the Orioles don't need another low-OBP batter in their lineup. Also, most Cuban expatriates, with a few very highly publicized (and expensive) exceptions, top out as AAA lifers. Faced with these facts, I feel obligated to think that Alvarez won't have much of a major-league career. But Alvarez is such an unusual player that I can't completely write him off. Similar players have had decent major-league careers as part-timers with occasional seasons as regulars. If the Orioles don't sign another outfielder, Dariel Alvarez might end up being the Orioles' best right-field option for 2016.

The Janish Shift

Paul Janish was recently added to the Orioles' active roster. Photo courtesy of Les Treagus/Norfolk Tides

In their recent series against the Norfolk Tides, the Columbus Clippers employed an extreme outfield shift against the Tides' #9 hitter, shortstop Paul Janish. Against Janish, the Clippers consistently positioned their right fielder further off the right-field line than I had seen any team position its right fielder against any hitter. The two photos below - because I took them myself, they look pretty amateurish - show where the location of the right fielder. He played between the "S" and the "t' in the State Farm advertisement in the first photo:

This isn't Columbus defending Paul Janish - it's the Tides warming up between innings.  

This picture tries to show that advertisement in relation to the entire field. It's that red-and-white blotch under the scoreboard. As you can see, that's quite a distance from the right-field line.

This picture of Harbor Park shows exactly how far off the right-field line Columbus played Paul Janish. 

While more and more teams are shifting their defenses against more and more batters, it seems to me that most of the shifting is done by infielders, with the outfield remaining pretty much straight away. And the stereotype of the extreme pull hitter is the hulking home-run hitter, which Paul Janish is not. It seemed strange to me and my co-workers in the press box that it would be Paul Janish against whom we saw the most extreme outfield shift.

Also, right fielders in Harbor Park generally play further off the right-field line than they do in other parks. There is a party deck in right field that shortens the distance down the foul line to 315 feet, and the fences quickly curve away from the deck to 375 feet in straight right-center. Right fielders can travel further to chase a ball hit down the line because the ball will not roll that far away from the infield. The downside is that such a positioning opens up the right field line for the batter.

Was Columbus on to something? Does it make sense for the right fielder to play that far off the line? In the games I have scored to date, both as the MLB Advanced Media Datacaster and for Baseball Info Solutions, Paul Janish had 127 plate appearances. The table below shows the first fielder for the balls Janish puts into play. The "Outs" column shows the number of balls put into play that result in outs; the "Hits" column the number of balls put into play that result in hits.

Position	Outs	Hits	Total	Percentage
Pitcher	1	0	1	.010
Catcher	2	0	2	.019
First Base	3	0	3	.029
Second Base	7	0	7	.068
Third Base	17	1	18	.175
Shortstop	15	2	17	.165
Left Field	13	10	23	.223
Center Field	13	7	20	.194
Right Field	6	6	12	.117
Totals	77	26	103
Walks:	9
Strikeouts:	15

My initial thought is that when Janish does put the ball in play, he does pull the ball. He hits more balls to the left fielder than to the right fielder, second baseman, and first baseman combined. 21.4% of the balls he puts into play were fielded by the first baseman, second baseman, or right fielder, the positions that would field the ball if Janish were going the other way.

While I'm sure that the information exists somewhere, I don't know whether Janish's distribution of balls put in play is typical of all players or whether he is an extreme pull hitter. If Janish is an extreme pull hitter, then kudos to the Cleveland Indians professional scouting department. Cleveland, the parent club of the Clippers, took the time to scout the International League and were observant enough to notice that Janish rarely hit to right field. And kudos to their AAA managerial staff, led by manager Chris Tremie, which had the courage to position their fielder in an unconventional way.

But also, if Janish is unusual in hitting the ball so infrequently to the opposite field, then there's something wrong with him. Janish hasn't been a successful offensive player; his career major-league OPS is .574 (in 434 games) and his AAA OPS is .650 (in 458 games). I think that it's likely that Janish would be a better offensive player if he "hit 'em where they ain't" more frequently. And Janish is a smart guy; he graduated from Rice University with a degree in economics. It's baffling that he hasn't realized that he would be more successful going the opposite way. If I were Janish, I'd spend an offseason working on hitting the ball the opposite way. It can't hurt his career.

The July Tides

After the Orioles promoted Nolan Reimold and Chris Parmelee from AAA Norfolk, and some of the fringe AAA players have been released, the Tides have more-or-less settled on a starting lineup of position players. As of this writing (July 3rd) Norfolk is in first place in the International League Southern Division, one-and-a-half games ahead of the White Sox' affiliate Charlotte.

So far this season, I've seen 27 Tides games. This article will provide my thoughts and observations on the eight current Norfolk position-player regulars, without any sophisticated statistical analysis. I will be sharing my opinions on whether and how these players would fit in with and help the Orioles both for 2015 and, if appropriate, beyond.

Before I review each individual player, one general overview. As a team, the 2015 Tides are the best overall AAA defensive team I've seen. And that's not just my opinion - many people who have been following AAA baseball much longer than I have agree. This means that the ERAs of the Orioles pitchers are better than they would be if there was a more typical AAA defense. Given that, and given that Harbor Park is a pitcher's park, we need to be less impressed by Norfolk pitchers' ERAs than we would normally be.

Now, on to the players:

Catcher Steve Clevenger: Clevenger's been up with the Orioles a few times, so he's a known quantity. He's a left-handed hitter, a line-drive hitter with occasional power. He has been playing well and hitting line drives to all fields. He's a solid, if not spectacular, defensive catcher. He'd probably combine well with Caleb Joseph as a semi-platoon catching combination, with Joseph playing against all lefties and maybe half of the righties. Clevenger's even pulled a Steve Pearce and played second base in one game.

First Baseman Christian Walker: Walker got off to a very slow start in 2015 and I feared he was going to become another Brandon Snyder, who had a half-year at AA in which he played much better than he would ever play again. Walker has gotten hotter and he's starting to hit for more power, although he's never going to be a true power hitter. He's a good defensive first baseman. He doesn't really have a role on the 2015 Orioles in that Steve Pearce and Reimold are already filling the role Walker would fill, and those two have more defensive value. Long-term, Walker might be a "good enough" replacement if Chris Davis leaves; I don't think "good enough" is really good enough for the Orioles going forward.

Second Baseman Rey Navarro: Navarro is a better player than I thought he'd be. He's got good range at second base (and he is also the backup shortstop) and an adequate arm. He's got more pop on offense than I was expecting, although he doesn't have the patience he needs and he's not as fast as I had thought. Navarro has tapered off after hitting well when he first joined the Tides. He would be a perfectly fine backup infielder; I wouldn't want to play him as a regular for more than a week or so.

Third Baseman Michael Almanzar: I've written about Almanzar in depth; he's still a solid, if occasionally error-prone, third baseman with a strong, accurate arm. Unfortunately, he's still trying to hit every pitch out of the ball park and still doesn't use the strike zone well, so it's hard to see a major-league future for him.

Shortstop Paul Janish: All of my co-workers agree - Paul Janish is the best defensive shortstop any one of them has seen on a regular basis. That includes Rey Ordonez, who  played a full season in Norfolk. I agree - Janish relies on positioning, reliability, and a strong arm to shut down the left side of the infield. That makes him more of a J.J. Hardy than an Ozzie Smith, so it's hard to see Janish making the Orioles. Unfortunately for Janish, he hits like Rey Ordonez - he doesn't walk and hits too many weak fly balls. He's also in his early thirties. I actually think he could play regularly for the right team - a team with a really strong offense that needs a defensive anchor. That's not the Orioles.

Left Fielder Henry Urrutia: After a 2014 season wrecked by an injury, Urrutia has bounced back and has been hitting the way he hit in 2013. Even though he doesn't walk and doesn't have great speed, he's been the Tides' leadoff hitter and, like Steve Clevenger,  has been hitting line drives all over the field. An Urrutia-type player would fit the Orioles' offense well; the Orioles offense is sustained by home runs and would benefit by having a player who does something else well. It won't be Urrutia; he's not a good defensive outfielder (the one defensive weak spot on the Tides) and he's not quite a good enough hitter to overcome that. Like many other Cuban refugees, he'll have a long professional career in AAA, Japan, and Mexico.

Center Fielder Julio Borbon: Borbon is a good defensive center fielder with above-average range and a playable, if not good, throwing arm. As an offensive player, he doesn't take advantage of his speed; he hits too many balls in the air. Because he doesn't have much power, pitchers are willing to throw him strikes and consequently he doesn't draw many walks. I wouldn't be surprised if Borbon were a September call-up as a pinch-runner and outfielder defensive replacement.

Right Fielder Dariel Alvarez: Alvarez is a good defensive right fielder with good range and an outstanding throwing arm. He can get by in center field on a short-term emergency basis. As a hitter, Alvarez has shown more power than I expected - he's hit 12 home runs so far - and makes more contact than I expected for someone who takes as many bad / wild swings as he does. He doesn't take walks. I don't see him with a role on the Orioles, and he's the kind of player who has to have his good year to help you.

The Tides have been using Sean Halton, a recent call-up from AA Bowie, as their primary designated hitter; he's also seen time as an outfielder when Urrutia or Alvarez is getting a "day off" as the DH. I haven't seen enough of him to have a good opinion.