Furthermore, it appears the team is using old school scouting perspectives (i.e., big man on the island) where having a well known and established scout would result in talent flocking to perform for you. Much attention was given for the team signing Fred Ferreira, the Shark of the Caribbean. He was one of the trailblazing scouts in Latin America and is known for signing several excellent talents (e.g., Vladimir Guerrero). Ferreira would be a great manager and caretaker of the international program by teaching younger scouts how to ply their trade, assuming Ferreira has moved with the times and is not banking off his stature. That said, the few sources I do have said that the Orioles are one of the least represented teams in the Dominican. My sources do not extend beyond that country, but the team has sat out on top level Venezuelan talent as well and trade journals like Baseball America have expressed that it would be in the Orioles' best interest to engage more fully in Venezuela.
Perhaps, the team is trying to find value on fringe markets. They have seemed to be dabbling in markets like Guatemala, Taiwan, New Zealand, and their tumultuous efforts in South Korea. Again though, outside of the failed Seung-min Kim attempted signing with a 550k bonus which fell apart because the team did not follow well established rules and because the scouting reports handed to them by their famed Pacific Rim scout did not match the player that wound up in the United States for the team to get a second look on. In fact, that is actually one of the elements that appears to be part of the Orioles strategy. Acting fast on few looks. More recently, the team dropped 800k on Dariel Alvarez even though no other club appeared faintly interested in him at that price. If that is what is happening, it is an interesting mode of operation. Find guys who come up nuts in their tryouts for teams and be willing to spend twice as much before the player can get in shape. Maybe it will work. That said, I have my doubts that Alvarez or Henry Urrutia will make any noticeable impact on the future of this franchise. Perhaps that 1.6 MM could have been spent better on elite young talent.
Over the past few years, the Orioles spending has been rather pathetic in relation to the rest of baseball (numbers are procured from Ben Badler's reporting at Baseball America).
| Bonuses | Rank | GM | High Bonus | Player | ||||
| 2010 | 1.18 MM | 25 | MacPhail | .3 MM | Hector Veloz | |||
| 2011 | 1.02 MM | 27 | MacPhail | .15 MM | Elvis Duran | |||
| 2012 | Est. 1.1 MM* | Est. 27 | Duquette | .15 MM | Yi-Hsiang Lin | |||
| 2013 | 1.23 MM** | 30 | Duquette | .325 MM | Ofelky Peralta | |||
| * - Team signed Henry Urrutia for 778k, which would increase total to 1.9 MM and a ranking of 20th. | ||||||||
| ** - Team signed Dariel Alvarez for 800k, which would increase total to 2.0 MM and a ranking of 29th. | ||||||||
Perhaps the above is unfair as the team did dive into Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada. That would have put the 2012 numbers into the top ten. Of course, those signings were not what most teams are doing with their international signings. What Duquette did with Chen and Wada, other General Managers do with Nolascos and Washburns. I would argue that finding talent for your active roster is a bit different from finding talent for your minor leagues. If you agree with that assessment, the Orioles have been quite negligent in putting up the money and relations required to sign elite Latin talent.
Below are the totals expressed by Baseball America for three of the past four years. I do not have the data for 2012, but from what was mentioned above we expect the Orioles to be ranked pretty close to the bottom.
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | Total | |
| Rangers | 3.57 | 12.83 | 8.42 | 24.82 | |
| Cubs | 4.16 | 4.54 | 8.22 | 16.92 | |
| Mariners | 6.47 | 6.67 | 3.58 | 16.72 | |
| Jays | 4.18 | 7.57 | 2.95 | 14.70 | |
| Royals | 2.70 | 6.80 | 3.61 | 13.11 | |
| Pirates | 5.00 | 4.09 | 2.58 | 11.67 | |
| Astros | 5.13 | 2.12 | 3.86 | 11.11 | |
| Yankees | 5.27 | 2.93 | 2.45 | 10.65 | |
| Indians | 2.47 | 3.58 | 4.25 | 10.30 | |
| Padres | 2.75 | 3.48 | 2.73 | 8.96 | |
| Red Sox | 1.64 | 3.25 | 3.98 | 8.87 | |
| Twins | 2.54 | 2.31 | 3.49 | 8.34 | |
| Braves | 3.28 | 2.49 | 2.40 | 8.17 | |
| Athletics | 4.73 | 1.22 | 2.10 | 8.05 | |
| Tigers | 2.53 | 3.03 | 2.28 | 7.84 | |
| Mets | 1.69 | 2.86 | 3.13 | 7.68 | |
| Cardinals | 2.47 | 2.63 | 2.30 | 7.40 | |
| Reds | 1.56 | 1.98 | 3.47 | 7.01 | |
| Rockies | 1.96 | 1.45 | 3.38 | 6.79 | |
| Rays | 1.73 | 1.79 | 2.83 | 6.35 | |
| Phillies | 1.49 | 2.05 | 2.46 | 6.00 | |
| Giants | 0.85 | 1.81 | 3.00 | 5.66 | |
| Brewers | 1.39 | 1.63 | 2.54 | 5.56 | |
| Diamondbacks | 1.42 | 0.88 | 3.18 | 5.48 | |
| Marlins | 1.19 | 1.38 | 2.53 | 5.10 | |
| Dodgers | 0.31 | 0.18 | 4.48 | 4.97 | |
| Nationals | 1.12 | 1.12 | 2.64 | 4.88 | |
| Angels | 0.62 | 1.45 | 1.83 | 3.90 | |
| White Sox | 0.35 | 0.78 | 2.65 | 3.78 | |
| Orioles | 1.18 | 1.02 | 1.23 | 3.43 |
As you can see, the Orioles ignored elite talent during the unrestrained MacPhail era and willfully ships out signing bonus allotments during the signing bonus limits in place during the Duquette era. As it stands, ignoring the minimal investment in 2012, the Orioles spent the least money in baseball for young international talent over recent history. Keep in mind a top tier international talent costs over a million and that there are about a dozen or two players each year who are treated as such. The Orioles top signings receive a third of that. The rather clearly suggests that the club simply ignores that level of the market. A market portion that is not ignored by low revenue teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Pittsburgh Pirates.
Perhaps you have faith in Duquette in that he is mindful of the market and is instead finding where value is. You may point to the lofty-ish minor league talent rankings that were built on first round picks and under the market signings from the previous regime as evidence of the current regime's ability to find and procure talent. Perhaps you look to Suk-min Yoon and Wei-Yin Chen and find solace there. Where you won't find solace are in the low minors. Those teams differ from others around baseball because those teams have a minimal number of raw, hard throwing arms from Latin America. Perhaps the high failure rate mitigates the money spent in this market. Perhaps the Orioles are the only team in baseball that knows this. To me, that is a lot of faith to have.
..."The few sources I do have... My sources do not extend beyond that country."
ReplyDeleteWhy write about a topic you know little about and then admit that you don't have the sources to support your position. Why not speak to Fred Ferreira and ask him directly? Your criticism would be more balanced if you examined the quote, "High failure rate mitigates the money spent in this market."
Because a lot of information is open and the sources I do have know the industry well. I think when you take those two items in hand, actual spending being the lowest in baseball and the word spreading through the industry, it paints a significant picture. Additionally, interviewing Ferreira seems not all that productive, right? What sort of critical statement would you expect from him. In the past some sites have leaned heavily on information from Oriole evaluators and that information has been understandably shiny. Outsider perspectives tend to have more merit in these kinds of situations. Finally...that failure rate is seen through the industry in the domestic draft as well with less choice in the domestic draft.
ReplyDeleteBecause a lot of information is open and the sources I do have know the industry well. I think when you take those two items in hand, actual spending being the lowest in baseball and the word spreading through the industry, it paints a significant picture. Additionally, interviewing Ferreira seems not all that productive, right? What sort of critical statement would you expect from him. In the past some sites have leaned heavily on information from Oriole evaluators and that information has been understandably shiny. Outsider perspectives tend to have more merit in these kinds of situations. Finally...that failure rate is seen through the industry in the domestic draft as well with less choice in the domestic draft.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking directly to the central figure in your blog gives balance and perhaps a better understanding. Relying on limited outside sources, many whom have axes to grind, only paints a narrow portrait. I would like to read and would expect Mr. Ferreira to address his vision and blue print for the organization, but you seem to think there is no rhyme or reason to the O's international department because some guy in the Dominican says so. Don't be lazy, your topic is valid but your SABR approach and shallow research doesn't tell the real story.
ReplyDeleteThere are a lot of ways to more fully fill out this article.
ReplyDeleteDariel Alvarez is ripping up AA hitting .361 (8th) and leading with 11 doubles at 100 at bats. He hit .342 last year between 3 leagues with the same number of at bats. I guess the Orioles should have waited like the rest of MLB to see if he could play before giving him a contract. Shame on Ferreira for signing this rising star after everyone else deemed him unimportant. LOL. Didn't Ferreira do the same thing with Vladmir Guerrero? How much did Vlad sign for after he was passed up by so many? LOL
ReplyDeleteDariel Alvarez is 25, which is old for Double-A ball. It's good that he's hitting well, but Henry Urrutia did the same thing in 2013 in both Double-A and Triple-A and has struggled since his major league promotion last year. And Urrutia is 27.
ReplyDeleteMaybe Alvarez keeps getting better and proves a lot of people wrong. But he's a long, long way to a Vladimir Guerrero comparison.