Once Through the Norfolk Rotation

The Norfolk Tides opened the 2014 season with a scheduled eight-game homestand, April 3-10. The first four games were against Charlotte, the White Sox' AAA affiliate, and the second were against Gwinnett, the Braves' AAA affiliate. Because Kevin Gausman might have had to start a doubleheader game in Detroit, and because the April 7 game was rained out, and because an illness forced me to cancel a previously-scheduled trip, I was able to work (either as the milb.com GameDay datacaster or as a BIS contract data gatherer) six of the seven games, and to see all five members of the Norfolk rotation make one start. I'll be discussing my observations in the rest of this article.

Before you prepare your comments implying I'm an idiot for generalizing off the limited sample size of one appearance, I'll tell you that I know this is only one appearance and that my observations probably do not accurate reflect these pitchers' true abilities. I also know that these pitchers have made appearances since I saw them and there's at least one more start to evaluate. Nevertheless, if nothing else, these comments may explain a start that may prove to be anomalous.

Courtesy of Christopher McCain / Norfolk Tides

April 5 - Steve Johnson vs. Charlotte 

During spring training, Steve Johnson had been a candidate for a spot in the Orioles' bullpen, and when he didn't make it was assigned to the Norfolk rotation. Johnson hadn't pitched as a starter in the spring, and so for at least his first start he was on a limited pitch count. He lasted only three innings before being relieved, and although his line was superficially good he didn't really pitch that well:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
3	3	1	1	2	4

Johnson began the game very well, but began to struggle in the second inning. The difference in his performance against the first first five batters he faced and against the last nine batters he faced is quite striking:

	Batters 1-5	Batters 6-14
Called Strike	5	7
Swinging Strike	2	4
Foul Strike	5	5
Ball	2	18
In Play	3	5

 (Yes, the breakdown is ex post facto; he walked batter number 6 on five pitches and didn't recover.)

Johnson was having problems keeping the ball down in the strike zone, as indicated by the breakdown of balls in play - five fly balls, three line drives, and zero ground balls.

It wouldn't be unreasonable to conclude that Johnson had been working as a relief pitcher, possibly limited to one-inning stints, in spring training. He wasn't used to the demands of starting. Because of this, we should probably note this start as an exception and discount it when evaluating his season.

Courtesy of Elaina Ellis / Norfolk Tides

April 6 - T.J. McFarland vs. Charlotte

As with Steve Johnson, if T.J. McFarland was going to make the 2014 Orioles out of spring training, he would do so as a relief pitcher. So, like Johnson, McFarland spent spring training as a relief pitcher, and also like Johnson, was on a limited pitch count in his first start. McFarland pitched better than Johnson did:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
4	4	1	1	0	5

Unlike Johnson, McFarland didn't noticeably tire at a specific point; he did give up his run in his last inning on back-to-back doubles but recovered to retire the next three batters. McFarland also showed better control than did Johnson:

Called Strike	14
Swinging Strike	9
Foul Strike	11
Ball	24
In Play	11

Although what's more interesting, and perhaps easier to appreciate, is that McFarland was consistently ahead in the count:

0-0	16
1-0	7
0-1	9
2-0	4
1-1	5
0-2	5
3-0	1
2-1	3
1-2	9
3-1	0
2-2	6
3-2	2

This is the number of pitches he threw at the counts, not the number of batters he faced with the counts; he may have thrown multiple pitches in an at-bat with the same count if the batter fouled off a two-strike pitch. Notice how few times he got far behind (2-0, 3-0, and 3-1). McFarland can't overpower hitters, it's important that he both control and command his pitches if he's going to succeed. This game was encouraging; the question is whether or not he can build on it.

Courtesy of Christopher McCain / Norfolk Tides

April 8 - Suk-min Yoon vs. Gwinnett

Suk-min Yoon signed with the Orioles relatively late, in mid-February. That gave him little time to adapt to American baseball, and little time to work himself into condition. April 8 was his first start, and it went terribly:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
2 1/3	11	9	9	1	0

Substantially more of Yoon's pitches were put into play than were those of the other starters:

Called Strike	11
Swinging Strike	4
Foul Strike	6
Ball	20
In Play	17

Comparing the percentage of Yoon's pitches that were put in play to those of the other starters in the games I saw:

Johnson	14.3 %
McFarland	18.6 %
Yoon	29.3 %
Wright	19.8 %
Gausman	17.4%

Obviously, there are a number of reasons why this shouldn't be representative of Yoon's ability. If he continues to struggle, then we might conclude that Yoon was assigned to too high a level for his first North American season, and that, like Henry Urrutia, he would have been better served with a transitional assignment to Bowie.

Courtesy of Christopher McCain / Norfolk Tides

April 9 - Mike Wright vs. Gwinnett

This was Mike Wright's second AAA start for Norfolk; his first was the last game of the 2013 season. And, just as in that game, Wright pitched effectively without being dominant:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
5	5	1	0	1	4

The interesting thing about Mike Wright is that closer looks at his performance don't reveal any unusual tendencies; he's close to normal in just about everything. His pitch breakdown:

Called Strike	10
Swinging Strike	10
Foul Strike	14
Ball	28
In Play	15

And the trajectories of his pitches put in play:

Grounder	8
Line Drive	1
Fly Ball	6

I'm gradually becoming more optimistic about Wright's future. I still think his most-likely career path is that of a Brad Bergesen or a Jason Berken, someone who has about 100 good major-league innings. But I think it's becoming more possible that he can develop into a #4 starter on a good team.

Courtesy of Elaina Ellis / Norfolk Tides

April 10 - Kevin Gausman vs. Gwinnett


This was Gausman's second start of 2014. He was very unlucky; the key hit in a two-run first inning was a bloop double that fell between the left fielder, third baseman, and shortstop. The unearned run in the second inning scored when Jemile Weeks threw the ball into the dugout trying to complete an impossible double play. Gausman could easily have pitched four scoreless innings, and so his pitching line is a little misleading:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K
4	4	3	2	3	4

Even though Gausman could easily have pitched four scoreless innings, he again failed to deliver a dominant performance. Every AAA game he pitches without having a dominant performance makes it just that much less likely that he will develop into the Hall-of-Fame caliber, perennial Cy Young Award contender Orioles fans are hoping for. Right now, he's looking more like a solid #3 starter on a championship-caliber team - in the range of Homer Bailey, Anibal Sanchez, or A.J. Burnett. That's still a valuable pitcher and Gausman remains a very good prospect. He just may not be the pitcher to carry the Orioles on his back to a championship.