tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post827292356724618926..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Chris Tillman: Limiting the Damage of the Long BallJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-74011460013740075952013-07-10T17:19:00.410-04:002013-07-10T17:19:00.410-04:00Pitching in Camden doesn't help as the Orioles...Pitching in Camden doesn't help as the Orioles are worst in the league in home runs allowed and 29th in HR/FB ratio. Interestingly enough, both the Mariners (27th) and the Padres (24th) are in the bottom 10 for HR/FB ratio. And the Rockies are 4th best (which I find surprising). Parks definitely play a factor, but I think the quality of a pitching staff is more important. <br /><br />As for Tillman, he has had a huge home/road split for home runs this year (14 at home, 4 on the road), but only one more home run allowed at home versus on the road during his career. Despite the home runs, if Tillman can continue pitching the way he is, I think the Orioles will take it.<br /><br />Appreciate the discussion.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05119567934749982333noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-47248996218749311802013-07-10T15:49:34.322-04:002013-07-10T15:49:34.322-04:00While the best thing a pitcher can do to prevent h...While the best thing a pitcher can do to prevent home runs is, as you said, not pitch in Colorado, one of the next best options is to not pitch in Camden--my point being that any pitcher for the Orioles will have an elevated HR/FB rate, and therefore give up more home runs as a whole (especially if they're fly ball pitchers like Tillman).<br /><br />With that said, Tillman's HR/FB rate, at 15.0%, is certainly elevated, and he's still managed to pitch his way to a decent 3.92 ERA--and is on pace for 3+ rWAR. So perhaps the ends justify the means.Triple Rnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-7142487013192691172013-07-10T13:43:00.932-04:002013-07-10T13:43:00.932-04:00Some people thought at one point that HR/FB should...Some people thought at one point that HR/FB should be expected to be around 10.6%. <br /><br />Now, the consensus is that HR/FB is mostly luck but there are certain things a pitcher can do to prevent home runs. <br /><br />The most obvious one is to not play in Colorado. If you can pitch in Oakland, Seattle or San Diego then that's a great plan. In addition, terrible/raw pitchers simply give up more home runs. If you throw a HiA pitcher out there then major league hitting is going to hit a lot of homers against him. You'd also expect his BABIP to be over .300 due to a high line drive rate.<br /><br />More seriously, another one is simply not throwing fastballs high in the zone. <br /><br />Honestly though, it could be that the difference in HR/FB% is nothing more then luck and what Tillman is really controlling is his FB%. The way he's pitching could turn fly balls into line drives. That's one way to avoid a three run home run. Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-92146058756694357912013-07-10T11:13:42.548-04:002013-07-10T11:13:42.548-04:00Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I was under the i...Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I was under the impression that HR/FB% was out of the pitcher's control, and therefore should be fairly even across all splits.Triple Rnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-11428036241327542582013-07-10T10:20:26.512-04:002013-07-10T10:20:26.512-04:00Those fly balls with no one on base turn into line...Those fly balls with no one on base turn into line drives with people on base. How many singles and doubles are worth a solo home run? <br /><br />Just doing some back of the napkin calculations, he's given up 14 HRs against 269 batters faced with no one on (5.2%) and 4 HRs against 174batters with someone on (2.3%).<br /><br />If he threw the same way with guys on base and with guys not on base, he'd probably give up 8 fewer home runs. He'd also probably allow another 11 non home runs hits or so (his OBP is worse with guys on base then with the bases empty). So, he'd probably save 4 or 5 runs per 60 innings. Comes out to about a third of a run per nine innings.<br /><br />But the other thing is that he averages 4.3 pitches per batter with the bases empty. He averages 4pitches per batter with a batter on the base. The difference between throwing to 25 batters per outing and 23 could be the difference between going 6 and going 5 and a third.Matt Pnoreply@blogger.com