tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post7632799105985020390..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Why Giving Up a Draft Pick for LaRoche Might Make SenseJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-71275590027155130222012-12-30T00:18:43.314-05:002012-12-30T00:18:43.314-05:00The point you made about the value of a marginal w...The point you made about the value of a marginal win for different teams is a really good one, and often gets overlooked. Its really the only argument for signing a big name on the FA market. In Laroche's case I don't think the marginal wins are valuable enough, but I do agree that the draft pick is not as valuable as some suggest. <br /><br />If we were talking about signing a LF or 2B, the marginal wins would be far easier to come by and thus worth paying more for. But with the big name outfielders off the market and no real 2Bs on the market, that ship has sailed. Depending how you view the pitching depth, though, Lohse could still make sense.Liamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-6355840122588612622012-12-29T14:35:17.651-05:002012-12-29T14:35:17.651-05:00What I think Jon was getting at is that there are ...What I think Jon was getting at is that there are both pros and cons to signing guys like LaRoche and giving up draft picks. In a year where our pick we give up is towards the lower part of the first round and we have another high compensation pick to lessen the blow it makes more sense than others.<br /><br />For me it comes down to how much confidence you have in the O's scouting department, which is hard to judge since it's a newer regime. There are greatly talented guys drafted in the #20-#50 range every year (I'm trying to get a post together looking at that) so if you are confident they can hit, maybe for the long play you want to hold on to that, such as BOS is doing. If you aren't as confident it shouldn't be a huge stumbling block to signing a player you feel like the team needs to compete. <br /><br />I don't think that he's saying signing LaRoche is the way to go, or that it isn't, just that there are positives on both sides of the move, and you can make an argument either way. If you don't think the O's will compete this coming year without making a series of moves, it doesn't make as much sense. If you think they are one player away from being right in that hunt, then maybe you make it and see where you are in June/July for trades. Jeremy Strainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15328957000625143010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-27329739563103856802012-12-28T00:15:53.523-05:002012-12-28T00:15:53.523-05:00I don't understand how this is an ESPN affilia...I don't understand how this is an ESPN affiliated blog.. this is garbageAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-27778348681276124232012-12-27T13:01:06.131-05:002012-12-27T13:01:06.131-05:00Assessing LaRoche's success? 6.5 wins over th...Assessing LaRoche's success? 6.5 wins over three years is rather fair. It acknowledges his 2012 season as well as his previous seasons. So, I am unsure why you think I should think that he will repeat his 2012 production when I did not suggest such a thing. His value could very well drop below a 2 WAR average for those three years. However, I would not think a 2.1 average is worth much contention.<br /><br />Regarding the #24 pick...I did exactly that and reported those numbers in the article. So...I think we found it was not very high at 9MM. Are you trying to saying something else. I might have misunderstood what you mean here about the draft pick.<br /><br />Re: LaRoche. As I mentioned in the article, I do not think he would be a good signing. However, there certainly are circumstances where he could be.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-61340072304728277512012-12-27T11:43:24.330-05:002012-12-27T11:43:24.330-05:00Jon: I'm sorry, but you didn't do a great ...Jon: I'm sorry, but you didn't do a great job of assessing what LaRoche's value would be in 2013 and 2014. He was very valuable in 2012, granted. But he had a career year at age 32, and would seem unlikely to repeat it.<br /><br />By baseball-reference's WAR, LaRoche was a 4.0 win player in 2012. His second-best season, 2009, he had 2.0 WAR. (I'm not a WAR fanatic, but it's a nice shortcut.) LaRoche was mediocre in 2010 and bad in 2011.<br /><br />I don't think a #24 draft pick has as much value as people think; go back and look at the success rate for teams picking #20-#25 and you'll find it's not very high. <br /><br />But I just don't want LaRoche. He'll be 33, he's had one very good year in the last 3 and only one other season that rose above mediocre. <br /><br />Might I add that the Orioles tried to sign him 2 years ago and he spurned them? Let somebody else overpay him. They'll regret it.W. Blake Grayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17755307711801965966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-29950008174016497662012-12-27T07:56:07.444-05:002012-12-27T07:56:07.444-05:00In general, the Orioles have been selecting within...In general, the Orioles have been selecting within the top ten (where there is a great amount of agreement on who is likely to be a very good prospect) and then in the 60-80 selection range where there is much more noise to the process. Based on the team's performance, I do not know whether I can say with any assurance that they are better or worse than the average team with respect to amateur scouting. My assessment in this article assumes they will perform in line with an average scouting program. That said, there are some rumblings that the current group does consider amateur performance a bit higher than the previous group which had a lean toward physical ability (as well as makeup). Will be interesting to see the new body of work.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-43496969725482633002012-12-26T22:56:52.703-05:002012-12-26T22:56:52.703-05:00Another consideration -- almost all of the Orioles...Another consideration -- almost all of the Orioles' draft successes in recent years have come from very early selections -- Wieters, Machado, Bundy, Gausman, Matusz. That makes it less likely that the Orioles' #24 draft pick will produce a valuable player.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.com