tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post7584304197212368031..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Expensive Central And South American Prospects Are OverratedJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-47397208913598623402015-10-22T10:33:48.050-04:002015-10-22T10:33:48.050-04:00This all is true, except I just cannot go that fur...This all is true, except I just cannot go that further distance and say that MLB's role is to make scouting easier. I have difficulty supporting that teams need to be saved from themselves except if such behavior is detrimental to the sport. I do not feel compelled to say that spending money on elite foreign Latino prospects is a bad thing.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-53387493002927683222015-10-22T10:26:42.370-04:002015-10-22T10:26:42.370-04:00Well, understanding the risks should convince MLB ...Well, understanding the risks should convince MLB to try and level them out. Why would you want clubs to pay prospects millions of dollars without having some certainty of their success? Then again, if the age limit was changed to 18 then teams would spend even more money and their spending might actually correlate to successfully selecting prospects which could be bad news for small market clubs. If teams are willing to pay huge taxes for international prospects now, then who knows what they'd do if that spending had a meaningful impact? <br /><br />Teams have been willing to take the risk. The Rangers, Mariners, Blue Jays and Yankees have spent huge sums over the period that I studied. The Mariners and Yankees pretty much struck out. The Blue Jays have done well due to Osuna becoming a good closer while Barreto has significant value and was traded for a king's ransom. The Rangers have done extremely well and developed a number of excellent prospects. They're doing far better than the others on the list (although they've been hit hard due to Profar's injury issues), possibly better than any other team in the majors (although I guess the Twins have to be #1) and probably know something that others don't. It would seem that it's a smart risk for the Rangers and probably less so for the other three clubs. <br /><br />If I had a dataset that had all international prospects from 2006-2013 and the amount they signed for then I imagine I'd find some interesting results. There are a large number of international prospects that are ranked. There have been a large number of international prospects that have turned into star players and regulars. Logic indicates that this could mean that a players signing bonus has little (for guys that earn say $100k or more) to do with his ultimate production. <br /><br />I think when you're dealing with 16 year olds playing in a foreign country as opposed to even 18 year old high school graduates playing in the states that it is harder to determine whether a player is worthy of a large bonus. It seems to me that the only potential way to answer that is by developing a strong and an active scouting team.<br /><br />To be clear, I wouldn't just give away the Os international budget but I'd be looking into guys making 100k-300k as opposed to players making $1M. Go heavy with scouting, try to use the best automated tools as much as possible and go for quantity (but guys that you like) over quality. Either that, or just hire someone away from the Rangers and try to replicate their method.Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-12768244467578408822015-10-22T09:34:19.102-04:002015-10-22T09:34:19.102-04:00To provide some context, Andy MacPhail's clubh...To provide some context, Andy MacPhail's clubhouse believed this exact thing and this was expressed way back in 2011 during a meet and greet we had with Matt Klentak and a few other local writers. Teams do seem to be aware of the risk and willing to spend on that risk. The Orioles then, and maybe now, do not agree with that risk and spend on lower cost targets.<br /><br />That said, your less financially enriched clubs tend to spend more internationally than would be expected in comparison to spending on the free agent market.<br /><br />In other words, I think the issue is more about understanding risk than trying to level risk. Even within a domestic draft class you have varying levels of risk depending on age, position, and body type.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com