tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post6519536185041440060..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Orioles Are The Worst Team In The AL EastJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-2702556467040914642016-01-31T21:10:00.738-05:002016-01-31T21:10:00.738-05:00Hello from Boston always read this site I'm fr...Hello from Boston always read this site I'm from Boston and live here. Always make trips to Camden great park great fans and I actually like Dan Duke. The Sox last year were supposed to be great they stunk so I couldn't disagree more with this crap Tampa and Toronto will be in the cellar this year the three other teams anything could happen it's a toss up who has strong years and who doesn't. If David Price went down the Sox have basically the same team as last year and if he pitches he can't have an off year or they don't compete so the way he goes the way the Sox go the Yankees great bullpen but starting pitching is a huge problem and the Os we just read about.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04205454685224650406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-63391044353781075462016-01-31T21:09:07.388-05:002016-01-31T21:09:07.388-05:00Hello from Boston always read this site I'm fr...Hello from Boston always read this site I'm from Boston and live here. Always make trips to Camden great park great fans and I actually like Dan Duke. The Sox last year were supposed to be great they stunk so I couldn't disagree more with this crap Tampa and Toronto will be in the cellar this year the three other teams anything could happen it's a toss up who has strong years and who doesn't. If David Price went down the Sox have basically the same team as last year and if he pitches he can't have an off year or they don't compete so the way he goes the way the Sox go the Yankees great bullpen but starting pitching is a huge problem and the Os we just read about.Erichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04205454685224650406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-30821470858468111782016-01-31T17:52:14.654-05:002016-01-31T17:52:14.654-05:00We have explained what the projections mean. What ...We have explained what the projections mean. What you are saying is that if it rains yesterday then it will always rain.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-38113279422483312382016-01-31T15:39:18.151-05:002016-01-31T15:39:18.151-05:00Last year, Fangraphs picked the Red Sox to win the...Last year, Fangraphs picked the Red Sox to win the AL East, the Dodgers to be the best team in baseball, and the Royals to win 72 games. Given that level of accuracy, I think being picked last by them is a good thing if you're an O's fan.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00025084603769153259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-9139178342027671382016-01-31T10:54:27.175-05:002016-01-31T10:54:27.175-05:00Before all you guys from MLBTR comment, this artic...Before all you guys from MLBTR comment, this article is an adjustment of Fangraphs projection system using Steamer and Depth Charts. We have not issued a personal study on the merits of this club.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-83703720896758212012016-01-26T17:23:59.904-05:002016-01-26T17:23:59.904-05:00Any possibility the O's are waiting until afte...Any possibility the O's are waiting until after arbitration results to deal Matusz? Efren Navarro is not what I had in mind for a new OF. Also, any comments on Billingsley or Josh Johnson? Both are a year removed from their injuries and have good track records.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-72595411155234982102016-01-26T12:46:19.204-05:002016-01-26T12:46:19.204-05:00Not really. I had a decent understanding of the Ma...Not really. I had a decent understanding of the MacPhail front office, but my awareness collapsed pretty quickly after he left. I only hear indirectly about the Orioles from other organizations.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-13262991275142798352016-01-26T10:42:05.318-05:002016-01-26T10:42:05.318-05:00It's unusual for a comment sequence to continu... It's unusual for a comment sequence to continue after the original post for several days old, but I guess this turned into a very interesting discussion.<br />Jon, have you heard any reliable noise about what the FO is actually doing?Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-27715946218680168232016-01-26T08:33:16.840-05:002016-01-26T08:33:16.840-05:00Latos is one of those interesting cases because I ...Latos is one of those interesting cases because I know of several teams who would not entertain him at league minimum wage. He also sees himself as only a starter. With that in mind, Fister is the most interesting bounce back candidate for me because he is willing to sit in the pen if he fails. That said...I would not want to hand him two years unless it was heavily incentive zed.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-36864736075692273272016-01-26T07:47:35.781-05:002016-01-26T07:47:35.781-05:00I echo Jon's sentiments. While I wouldn't...I echo Jon's sentiments. While I wouldn't put it statistically; I would turn it around and ask, "How do you know when you must do more to improve the team and what is the move likely to make the biggest difference?" This is where these statistical comparative differences mean something. Dombrowski can rest on his laurels for now. He seems to have assembled a pretty good team. How they perform is a completely different issue. The O's look like a team that needs specific improvement to compete. Whether that comes from bringing in players outside of the organization or expecting current players to perform better is a decision point. But the statistics tell you how likely it is that any decision will pan out. It's a tool, not the only tool, but a tool. For us, it's a jumping off point for discussion.<br /><br />Jon, OK, CarGo is an excellent player, too, but isn't he just Chris Davis 2.0? I agree with your assessment about giving up Miguel and Wright, but "no pain, no gain". The Rockies wouldn't accept a deal that didn't hurt us as much as giving up Blackmon hurts them. Maybe we can give less for CarGo and more in the arena of money vs. talent. Angelos would have to be willing to pay. I really like Blackmon better as a fit for the team.<br /><br />Paredes is indeed a difficult situation - a point of contention all last season. WEhat I would argue is that he has not had 3 years worth of chances yet. His other tastes of action were so limited as to not be terribly relevant. His two biggest sets of seasonal ABs ended up with decent numbers (even though last year had a terrible split). That's why I say he still needs a chance to prove if he is 1st half Paredes or 2nd half Paredes. One detractor is that, being a switch hitter, his LH/RH splits are not good enough to avoid a platoon. But the lack of fielding ability will always hurt him until he becomes David Ortiz.<br /><br />The last question is who do you think is the best bet for a rebound among the remaining FA pitchers? Specifically, among the injury types not the attitude types (Latos). Someone who could be had cheap (i.e. not Lee).Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-31215669558916363492016-01-26T07:25:58.774-05:002016-01-26T07:25:58.774-05:00Eh, I tried to provide context for the projections...Eh, I tried to provide context for the projections. Yes, they mean something. That is why there is a nice distribution around the projections. I team with a projection of 85 wins is meaningfully different than a team whose projection is at 75 wins. There are statistically significant probabilities associated with those bins of projections. You can sit there and go on about how this club did this or that club did that, but you are looking at trees and not the forest. Sometimes you need to drop back to see the utility here. If you require a binary outcome, then you are looking at any team below 70 wins will not be in the playoffs and any team above 110 wins will be in the playoffs. However, we do have the ability to discern more than that. If you ignore projections that is OK, but they actually do communicate information.<br /><br />Roger - I chose CarGo simply because he is the one Colorado is more likely to deal and most interested in finding a partner to deal him to. Typically, trades go in the direction of the least resistance, but certainly there are exceptions. The trade? It is rough to give up both MiGo and Wright because the club needs as many starting options as possible. With Paredes...lots of players have a good few months, but the difficult thing with him is that he has no base value with fielding. He is just a bat and if that bat struggles then he is nothing. As an evaluator you try to discern talent from performance and guys without much history of success will make you question that level of talent when you only see flashes of performance. If he had strung together 3 good years and had a miserable half year then you shrug and keep at it. If he strung together a good half season in the midst of several poor ones, then it is more likely that he needs to be jettisoned.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-43541018742525261682016-01-26T06:47:06.824-05:002016-01-26T06:47:06.824-05:00If my memory is correct, FanGraphs projected the R...If my memory is correct, FanGraphs projected the Red Sox to win the AL East in 2015. <br /><br />After all, these are projections and they do make for good discussions. Beyond that . . . Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-53313800434114638462016-01-26T00:57:43.751-05:002016-01-26T00:57:43.751-05:00this club was projected at 78 wins last year. won ...this club was projected at 78 wins last year. won more. so even thought it was only 3 more than projected i give it as much credibility as the last place projection for the Washington football team. injuries and bad luck and under performance from other teams key players can make a difference.tony2302https://www.blogger.com/profile/14464582714647079915noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-90845298657153756772016-01-26T00:06:53.559-05:002016-01-26T00:06:53.559-05:00OK, as P suggests, I guess I should not be anonymo...OK, as P suggests, I guess I should not be anonymous especially after that last post (not mine). However, the long-head post at the beginning is mine but I haven't seen any reaction.<br /><br />Jon, why did you choose CarGo over Blackmon? Any comment on my trade idea (I guess, bleech would be a reaction). Also, don't you think Bundy's prediction is high? Wouldn't Blackmon/Fister be worth more than Miguel/Matusz/Wright? How about a comparison of a Blackmon/Machado lineup vs a Machado/Paredes lineup from the first half last year. Does Paredes really have such low potential as to be useless? He sure showed different last year during the first half. Blackmon comes in and who goes? Reimold? Rickard? Paredes?Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-77341412412694513142016-01-25T21:01:47.101-05:002016-01-25T21:01:47.101-05:00Wound up wasting the off-season waiting on the wro...Wound up wasting the off-season waiting on the wrong player! Could have gotten a good RF, a good starting pitcher for less money. A guy one year removed from .196 and an Adderal suspension is not worth 161 million!!! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-32272891897404994682016-01-25T16:44:58.517-05:002016-01-25T16:44:58.517-05:00P - I had seen your comment earlier and I was also...P - I had seen your comment earlier and I was also surprised to see it disappear. I had the same reaction as you did.Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-68524903889846130082016-01-25T16:29:34.699-05:002016-01-25T16:29:34.699-05:00Sometimes blogger thinks people are spamming, so i...Sometimes blogger thinks people are spamming, so it may take longer for posts to appear. Wonder why that comment was flagged.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-73225457300434622042016-01-25T15:53:34.694-05:002016-01-25T15:53:34.694-05:00And now it appears, and I look like a total doofus...And now it appears, and I look like a total doofus… Maybe being "anonymous" isn't such a bad idea after allPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-53609126208663645332016-01-25T14:14:40.716-05:002016-01-25T14:14:40.716-05:00Unsure what happened.
Dodgers, possible area as w...Unsure what happened.<br /><br />Dodgers, possible area as well but they seem less inclined to accept a deal as money is not much of an issue for them.<br /><br />I have heard nothing about Weaver. A lot about CJ Wilson and Hector Santiago.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-33383931145260092622016-01-25T12:33:42.110-05:002016-01-25T12:33:42.110-05:00Jon, I made a comment earlier, to which this was a...Jon, I made a comment earlier, to which this was an addition based on a typo.<br />Did it not post?<br />Anyway, I asked about whether The Dodgers or another OF-heavy team might also be worthwhile trade partners, and mentioned the Angels as possibly moving Weaver and asked whether we might be interested in him.Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-21863852024166327632016-01-25T11:48:23.606-05:002016-01-25T11:48:23.606-05:00I think it is a little embarrassing for them. I fi...I think it is a little embarrassing for them. I figure most optimistically that it might shift a club by 3 or 4 wins, but that would be extreme.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-78599218417436294172016-01-25T11:36:11.716-05:002016-01-25T11:36:11.716-05:00Joe - I don't actually think Fangraphs changed...Joe - I don't actually think Fangraphs changed their WAR baseline. I think their calculations are slightly flawed. I brought it to Neil Weinberg's attention and he said it was an error that they'd keep an eye but they suspect will self correct. <br /><br />But until it does, then it's clear their data isn't as accurate as it could be.Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-83955475404509165412016-01-25T11:14:42.523-05:002016-01-25T11:14:42.523-05:001,055 total WAR implies a WAR level of 45.83 wins ...1,055 total WAR implies a WAR level of 45.83 wins per team.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-54286796172838925432016-01-25T10:39:31.094-05:002016-01-25T10:39:31.094-05:00The first thing that confuses me about the Fangrap...The first thing that confuses me about the Fangraphs Depth Charts is that they're expecting teams to have 1,055 WAR this year. Call me crazy, but I'm taking the under on that prediction. <br /><br />The second thing that confuses me is that their predictions call for the Os starting rotation to throw 943 innings with a 4.28 ERA. If the Os ERA is that poor then I'd expect the rotation to throw ~ 910 innings which should save the Os about 3 runs. Obviously, impact is minimal in such a case but it is interesting. <br /><br />The third thing is that if the Os have a 4.06 ERA as Steamer predicts then they'll be on pace to allow 658 Earned Runs. This fits the Os normal pattern from 2012-2015 of allowing between 558-678 ER. On average, the Os give up 30 unearned runs. <br /><br />Fangraphs, however, has the Os giving up 757 runs this year which would be a drastic change. This may not necessarily be an error as Fangraphs uses baseruns rather than ERA to determine their projected standings. However, I don't understand how using baseruns rather than ERA is proper procedure for these depth charts. By definition, ERA projects runs scored even if Baseruns has strong predictive value. <br /><br />Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-30674208130767049482016-01-25T10:16:21.585-05:002016-01-25T10:16:21.585-05:00"Match ups"
#%^ non-edit feature....."Match ups"<br />#%^ non-edit feature.....Pnoreply@blogger.com