tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post6145265874749556798..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Looking Ahead: What Should the Orioles Do With Tim Beckham?Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-59951699582392098002017-09-05T21:30:23.478-04:002017-09-05T21:30:23.478-04:00So what if here..... Beckham's arm isn't g...So what if here..... Beckham's arm isn't great, Schoop's range isn't great, and Manny wants to play SS. I say Schoop to third maximizing that big arm, Manny SS to make him happy plus his range could help cover Schoop's lack of and last put Beckham at 2nd where the longest throw to first is from 2nd base and not shallow LF? I know it's crazy but you know, think about it?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05251777138206046905noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-80185537465815678792017-09-05T15:19:16.013-04:002017-09-05T15:19:16.013-04:00Matthew, a very cleverly written article. Enjoyed ...Matthew, a very cleverly written article. Enjoyed it.<br />Couple things: you didn't address the possibility or Manny moving to short and getting another 3B, which means that trading Beckham wouldn't create a serious hole.<br />You didn't mention Beckham's frustrating defense. He's below average at short and only Chris Davis' skills at 1B have saved several additional throwing errors.<br />Finally, a knock on Beckham was his attitude when things were going badly. I don't remember details but it was serious enough to have been a factor in the Rays getting Hechavarria and dumping Beckham.<br />Personally I'm all for selling to highest bidder, but the Orioles have been happily sacrificing D for O these last 2-3 years, so they'll likely keep Beckham.Piphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02853470978165087046noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-90046274278105883252017-09-05T10:47:54.687-04:002017-09-05T10:47:54.687-04:00Timely article. A few points:
1)Why would the Or...Timely article. A few points:<br /><br />1)Why would the Orioles 'buy' Beckham out of his arbitration? He's under team control until 2020. Wouldn't the Orioles be losing money if they did that? Please explain this thinking. <br /><br />2)The problem with trading Beckham is that the O's would be out of a short-stop. There are no viable options for next season out of the minor leagues and the this year's free agency class is very lame. I don't see Beckham being traded for a player so valuable the O's would pass up on having a dud at SS for an entire season. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15427526051371867260noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-41813633018870972712017-09-05T09:46:46.591-04:002017-09-05T09:46:46.591-04:00Arbitration is an interesting thing. Matt Perez wr...Arbitration is an interesting thing. Matt Perez wrote on it awhile back (http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2016/02/say-goodbye-to-40-60-80-rule.html), which suggests a 24/34/41 breakout for a position player. I think we could use that to give a couple estimates on what Beckham would see in arbitration. I think this year could be about a 3.5 WAR season for him. A 3.5 WAR season is worth about 25 million. So,<br />2018 - 6 MM<br />I think moving beyond that any extension would expect very good performance, so more 3 WAR seasons.<br />2019 - 8.5 MM<br />2020 - 10.3 MM<br /><br />That gives you a 3/24.8 MM. So, 3/25 if he continues to be very good. For me, I would have to be sold on his value outlasting his .450 BABIP. If I think he is truly a 3.5 to 4 WAR player, then I would be willing to go in on simply buying out his arbitration years. Still, that would not be all that useful to me without also getting a free agent year or two in it.<br /><br />For me I would be more willing to look at something around 4/35-40 or 5/55-60 if I truly believed in him.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.com