tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post5744239159917979984..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Orioles' Defense Isn't as Good as You Might Think Jon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-85640795044603257032015-01-27T09:29:43.294-05:002015-01-27T09:29:43.294-05:00Didn't realize people were still commenting.
...Didn't realize people were still commenting.<br /><br />Hardy does hit better than Belanger but shortstops were weaker offensively back then. In retrospect, Cal was pretty amazing offensively and turned our shortstop position into a strength. <br /><br />I think that ERA-FIP does provide a check for team defense especially over long periods of time. There should be a correlation between those numbers and fielding metrics. That relationship does exist.Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-46519726005802609692015-01-24T18:19:25.727-05:002015-01-24T18:19:25.727-05:00That is not what Saber metrics says. That would be...That is not what Saber metrics says. That would be like saying that medicine thinks that height and weight are the only needed variables when telling if someone is dangerously overweight. FIP is one measure of many that are used. No single measure or approach is universal.Timnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-51693066194534889492015-01-23T20:10:30.965-05:002015-01-23T20:10:30.965-05:00Two interesting ideas lurk in between the lines of...Two interesting ideas lurk in between the lines of this very good post: first, the idea of diminishing returns from improved defense implies that many effects may be non-linear. Sabermetrics seems to be based on the idea that every relationship is strictly linear, which would make baseball the only complex system that could be so described. Second, the difference between FIP and ERA might be a better metric for team defense than the defense metrics that poorly describe individual performance and basically ignore combined performance. This latter issue is important for defense, because almost every play involves multiple individuals, each of whose capabilities may reinforce or detract from their teammates'.John Morganhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01258086312217768014noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-2944756739565680392015-01-23T02:38:31.313-05:002015-01-23T02:38:31.313-05:00Machado and Hardy: Our present day Brooks Robinson...Machado and Hardy: Our present day Brooks Robinson and Mark Belanger? Hardy hits way better than Belanger did. Machado has shown glimpses of the great Brooks Robinson on defense. He may show to be a better hitter than was Robinson.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01268746721142602168noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-40921034269049124462015-01-20T18:48:16.059-05:002015-01-20T18:48:16.059-05:00It is awkward trying to have a conversation with m...It is awkward trying to have a conversation with multiple anonymous people especially when they disagree with each other.<br /><br />Historical data shows that pitchers have control over home runs but limited control over other hits. If you want further information discussing this then I suggest reading all off the stuff that Voros McCracken wrote for BP.<br /><br />Failing that, I'll talk about it some more in a future post. Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-1515635566540563382015-01-19T13:50:10.797-05:002015-01-19T13:50:10.797-05:00Double dipping is not sampling bias.
If you don&#...Double dipping is not sampling bias.<br /><br />If you don't understand what double dipping is, or why it is bad, it is discussed in any decent book on statistical analysis. Even wikipedia does a decent job of explaining it - see their page on multiple comparisons.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-64574158540746277512015-01-19T13:37:07.634-05:002015-01-19T13:37:07.634-05:00Except you are wrong about FIP's sampling bias...Except you are wrong about FIP's sampling bias. Tango developed that and he is not some casual dabbler in statistics. That is why I highly question your doubts because they have been wrong in their assumptions and overly generic in their application.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-10584762989960582015-01-19T12:21:03.474-05:002015-01-19T12:21:03.474-05:00So what? There is no reason that the presence of ...So what? There is no reason that the presence of fielders would nullify the ability of a pitcher to influence outcomes. Fielders have a harder time fielding balls that are hit well than balls that are hit poorly. Home runs are an extreme of that, but it is absolutely ridiculous to suggest that outcomes of balls in play are luck-dominated unless that ball happens to be hit hard enough to go over the fence. There is no magical fundamental divide here, simply a silly and arbitrary one drawn by people overfitting the data we have.<br /><br />There is a very big difference between cynicism and skepticism. The latter is sorely lacking in (among many other places) most sports statistics, largely because the readership (and many of the writers, unfortunately) simply do not have the necessary mathematics background to question the established metrics along the proper lines.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-35579186551103849792015-01-19T11:40:08.325-05:002015-01-19T11:40:08.325-05:00Because fielders are not on the other side of the ...Because fielders are not on the other side of the fence. <br /><br />I have seen nothing in your comments except unattached cynicism.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-80292403633033526992015-01-18T22:45:02.489-05:002015-01-18T22:45:02.489-05:00If pitchers have "limited control over what h...If pitchers have "limited control over what happens to balls put in play," why include home runs in FIP? This is a rather silly and arbitrary distinction to make - that hard hit balls are not pitcher-controlled unless they're hit hard enough to go over the fence.<br /><br />I wholly expect that if/when the hitFX data becomes public, much of this nonsense will be cleared up. There is value in attempting to create pitcher metrics that don't depend on fielding, but we do not have the data to do it well and I see no reason to believe that current attempts at it are anything other than meaningless data-dredging.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-55413242953482533112015-01-18T21:11:32.839-05:002015-01-18T21:11:32.839-05:00Alex B. - Using RA/9 instead of ERA is an excellen...Alex B. - Using RA/9 instead of ERA is an excellent idea and what I should have done. <br /><br />Anonymous - There is solid justification showing that pitchers have limited control about what happens when the ball ends up in play. I have a whole bunch of data showing that to be the case.<br /><br />Here's the thing. You're arguing that FIP undervalues the Orioles pitching staff. I'm arguing that the ERA-FIP difference shows the value of the Orioles defense. You'd agree that our defense is good, right?<br /><br />It makes sense that a good defense will make pitchers look better. That's basically what we're saying here.Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-71016424409654472892015-01-17T20:29:05.892-05:002015-01-17T20:29:05.892-05:00FIP is a significantly better predictor of future ...FIP is a significantly better predictor of future ERA until about 200 IP then they are pretty equivalent. So here is your evidence. In fact if one could swing a dead cat on the internet, you would find a lot of research on this. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12844Timnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-82068732002044365782015-01-17T18:17:30.093-05:002015-01-17T18:17:30.093-05:00I think we need to abandon the notion that FIP is ...I think we need to abandon the notion that FIP is a good indicator of "true pitching ability," because to be frank there is no solid justification (statistical or otherwise) for that claim.<br /><br />The orioles are outperforming their FIP because FIP is a flawed (to say the least) stat and it so happens that it is flawed in a way that undervalues the Orioles' pitching staff, which does not abound in strikeouts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-25275636093592025682015-01-16T20:22:10.627-05:002015-01-16T20:22:10.627-05:00Actually, I think this is a pretty cool blog. It ...Actually, I think this is a pretty cool blog. It uses statistics that are pretty common and kind of old school now in front offices. Always am surprised when Orioles fans get upset about advanced metrics because this is exactly what Dan Duquette brought to the organization. Perhaps fans should be open-minded about them because these ways to measure things are common now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-89914177115073719462015-01-16T19:35:34.285-05:002015-01-16T19:35:34.285-05:00Do you get different results if you use RA/9 rathe...Do you get different results if you use RA/9 rather than ERA? Seems intuitive that good defenses usually make fewer errors, so the FIP-RA/9 difference might be greater than the ERA-RA/9 difference.Alex B.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-80375111867821174482015-01-16T14:41:37.202-05:002015-01-16T14:41:37.202-05:00Yes, the entire thing. No one cares about these bo...Yes, the entire thing. No one cares about these bogus made up statistics that mean nothing to the average Orioles fan. Every article on this blog is the same gibberish. Also, nearly every article is negative towards the Orioles.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-16317716507593026572015-01-16T13:03:51.403-05:002015-01-16T13:03:51.403-05:00You mean, like, the whole entire blog?You mean, like, the whole entire blog?Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-87789213772460968232015-01-16T12:57:36.688-05:002015-01-16T12:57:36.688-05:00This entire blog is a jokeThis entire blog is a jokeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-81917192417513915162015-01-15T14:56:21.041-05:002015-01-15T14:56:21.041-05:00If no numbers can measure it, then what are wins? ...If no numbers can measure it, then what are wins? I think it is off based to be so dismissive of these things.<br /><br />I think including 2014 with 2012 is a bit liberal in grouping things. It is also peculiar why we should ignore 2013. That year happened.<br /><br />We can wave hands and believe in magic, but really we are talking about uncertainty which is much more tangible than magic.Keithnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-82439709767813057762015-01-14T22:36:15.214-05:002015-01-14T22:36:15.214-05:00This team has consistently beat the numbers that a...This team has consistently beat the numbers that are projected by these type of numbers. The team as a unit works and no numbers can measure it. Try to make sense of the 2012 or 2014 teams. Other then they just win games. As they will again this year. The favs in the east period. That is before they add players and they will before and during the year.SMHJeff Stowernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-18866205314316150112015-01-14T17:40:10.146-05:002015-01-14T17:40:10.146-05:00Phillip - The question isn't whether the Oriol...Phillip - The question isn't whether the Orioles defense will be elite. We're presuming that as a condition. <br /><br />The problem is that even elite defenses (as defined by Fangraphs) aren't good enough to prevent 80 runs. Rather they usually prevent 30 to 40 runs. <br /><br />The Orioles defense can improve and it still wouldn't be expected to prevent 80 runs like it did last year.Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-18034154129512215892015-01-14T16:54:44.507-05:002015-01-14T16:54:44.507-05:00How much difference would be considered "regr...How much difference would be considered "regression"?<br />Wouldn't it be logical to expect improvement, as good as things were?<br />Machado is better than Flaherty, Schoop has a year of experience and working with Hardy, Lough and De Aza consistently are better than what we had last year.<br />It really seems as if there are too many unknown factors to say much with confidence, except that the Orioles were outstanding on defense last year and we should expect more outstanding defense.Philipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-51494846073798783142015-01-14T15:48:47.062-05:002015-01-14T15:48:47.062-05:00Thanks Statistics.
"As long as you have the ...Thanks Statistics.<br /><br />"As long as you have the historical FIP-ERA differentials handy, I am wondering how the 1970s Orioles compare to the 1990s Orioles?"<br /><br />I plan to discuss something related to that in more detail. Might take a few weeks. <br /><br />Fair enough Erik. And certainly there are different types of lightning strikes. After all, in 2012 it was wins in one-run games. Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-39635088375233174052015-01-14T15:27:35.952-05:002015-01-14T15:27:35.952-05:00I think my comments last season along the lines th...I think my comments last season along the lines that there was a lot of magic in the results the Orioles were getting was something I was happy to admit and not question showed I knew it at the time. <br /><br />I just don't expect my lightning to strike twice in the same place. I can still pray for two lightning strikes. Eriknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-20101960769560630132015-01-14T14:23:40.946-05:002015-01-14T14:23:40.946-05:00As long as you have the historical FIP-ERA differe...As long as you have the historical FIP-ERA differentials handy, I am wondering how the 1970s Orioles compare to the 1990s Orioles?<br /><br />Specifically, Palmer's WHIP and K/BB ratios don't indicate as much dominance as Mussina's stats. (Ignoring CGs.) Trying to make a stronger case for HOF Mussina by showing that if Mussina had the same quality defense behind him as Palmer, his HOF worthiness would be even clearer.Statistics Don't Lienoreply@blogger.com