tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post5713635617137874111..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: The Orioles Outfield And Catch ProbabilityJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-89169164392281694292017-03-20T10:05:22.084-04:002017-03-20T10:05:22.084-04:00Defensive ability is expressed as runs saved and i...Defensive ability is expressed as runs saved and it is all anchored by average performance.<br /><br />Your event based examples are incorporated into that construct. Run expectancy is based on where a ball is hit, how it is hit. This is also a cumulative statistic, so it adds up. A run saved is a run saved is a run saved.<br /><br />I do not know what is surprising about that.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-229912146627745292017-03-20T08:04:30.415-04:002017-03-20T08:04:30.415-04:00"… it is a bit of a leap to think outfield de..."… it is a bit of a leap to think outfield defense compared to average is more important than infield defense compared to average."<br /><br />I find your statement to be somewhat surprising, Jon. Aren't the vast majority of infield-fieldable balls going to fall into the "base hit/out" category (aside from a small percentage of drives down either line being possible doubles or triples)? By comparison, won't a significant portion of outfield-fieldable balls be potential "triple/double/base hit/out" types, with a very small number of HRs falling into the potential "out" column as well? Admittedly, an infielder will have a bigger impact on how many double plays the defense will convert. OTOH, a good outfielder doesn't just convert some hits to outs … he also converts some triples to doubles (or even singles), and some doubles to singles.<br /><br />With all that in mind, it seems at least <i>plausible</i> to me that an above average outfielder could have a bigger impact than an above average infielder on reducing the total bases/runs produced by the opposing team.ballgamenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-83447221529216518652017-03-19T08:07:45.038-04:002017-03-19T08:07:45.038-04:00The translation to runs is much better now than wh...The translation to runs is much better now than what James had to work with. Still some areas could be ironed out more, but it is a bit of a leap to think outfield defense compared to average is more important than infield defense compared to average.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-1588867088585182412017-03-19T00:02:10.132-04:002017-03-19T00:02:10.132-04:00Roger: I think your basic argument makes a certain...Roger: I think your basic argument makes a certain amount of sense if we assume that a modest improvement in OF fielding has a significantly higher impact on preventing runs than a moderate improvement in fielding at 1B. (This seems plausible to me; I recall an old Bill James study where he found that the best fielding teams were more likely to boast great fielding outfields than great fielding infields, though his analytical tools back then were more rudimentary than what we have today.)<br /><br />The fly in the ointment to your approach, though, is you're also assuming that a change in fielding position won't have a negative impact on that player's hitting. I don't think we can assume that, particularly when you're shifting a player from a position he plays well to one he's rated as sub-par.ballgamenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-18906227170399417902017-03-18T11:51:22.219-04:002017-03-18T11:51:22.219-04:00I think, sure, the data is telling us that speed i...I think, sure, the data is telling us that speed is important, but I think it is a great leap of faith to say it is all. Reaction time and projectile comprehension obvious play a role as well. <br /><br />If 40 times were king then we would see a different way of going about things. I think the Royals academy in the early 70s showed that skill matters more than athleticism.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-17120529744449964082017-03-18T10:19:47.899-04:002017-03-18T10:19:47.899-04:00I am just basing my argument on the base assumptio...I am just basing my argument on the base assumption of this article. Catch probability goes up with speed. Seems like a good way to start would be to have them all run times in the 40 and tell anyone who runs 28fps or faster in their fastest second that they are being assigned to practice for the OF. The only reason we don't have that data is no one has run the tests and released the data. If this is what the data tells us then time to use it to the advantage of the situation which currently tells us we have at least four 1B/DH and a bunch of 4A or unproven OFs or proven terrible OFs. Like I said, time to make lemonade.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-42273538821528218442017-03-17T18:52:46.938-04:002017-03-17T18:52:46.938-04:00Where is the best place to play the players? We re...Where is the best place to play the players? We really do not have the data to say that very well. Trumbo is awful in RF and Davis a couple years ago was poor. Davis is very solid at 1B and pre injury Trumbo a while back looked above average there. How do we really assess whether one or the other take RF?<br /><br />I agree that you maximize the team, but a great deal of assumptions would go into anything that puts Davis in right field. The point of the lineup optimization model is that we have a lot of data to lean on. We simply do not have that in this situation.<br /><br />RF play requires speed and skill. There are ways to approximate speed from offensive metrics. I cannot think of a way to assess skill in a similar fashion.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-44962626956760976912017-03-17T16:50:21.404-04:002017-03-17T16:50:21.404-04:00The whole base of the article we're discussing...The whole base of the article we're discussing is that a certain speed is required to make certain catches. That would inevitably imply that speed is required to be a good outfielder. Who among Davis, Trumbo, Mancini, Smith, and Alvarez is the fastest player and how do they rank? Is Davis faster than Trumbo? Play him in RF. Is this team better with Trumbo 1B/Davis RF or with Davis RF/Trumbo 1B? Whatever the answer is, play them that way and we can quit talking about it. We don't have a choice of who to have on the team. DD provides the players and Buck has to play them. You guys just analyzed lineups and determined which one comes up with the most runs. One of the more productive ones was one Buck is likely to use. Maybe not the best but a good one. The whole point here is to get your best bats into the field without negating their worth. Someone in this blogspot needs to take the players we have and tell us where the best place to play them is. I happen to think Davis is the only one of the bunch that has a decent likelihood of playing a passable OF and there are several that can play a passable 1B. Someone prove me wrong. If Hardy gets hurt, I say leave Flaherty on the bench, play Davis at 3B and give DH or 1B to Mancini. Players should not be played based upon their own best capability if it detracts from the team's potential for success. Maximize the team not the individual.Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-32449541954334609532017-03-16T16:35:23.009-04:002017-03-16T16:35:23.009-04:00I am unsure if it is my words that are being remem...I am unsure if it is my words that are being remembered differently than I wrote them. I think Mark Trumbo's contract is a good deal related to his value as a first baseman, but is an overpay as he is very unlikely to play first base. Davis' presence makes Trumbo's presence less advantageous.<br /><br />I would not really call it lower than a below average deal simply do to positional considerations. Otherwise, I think it is an above average deal. I think his swing revamp really helped him develop into a more consistently above average bat, but he has a lot of problems as a total player.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-34977355561552984732017-03-16T16:25:29.335-04:002017-03-16T16:25:29.335-04:00Also, I've never heard anyone say the Trumbo d...Also, I've never heard anyone say the Trumbo deal is worse than the Davis deal. Whether you're fine with Davis's contract or not, his deal and Trumbo's aren't even in the same stratosphere.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-32428198891372828812017-03-16T16:23:52.606-04:002017-03-16T16:23:52.606-04:00Are you assuming that Davis has to be better in th...Are you assuming that Davis has to be better in the outfield than Trumbo? Why? Being a little faster than someone does not make you a better outfielder. He might be slightly better; he might not. I'm arguing that it doesn't really matter. They've stockpiled a bunch of 1B/DH types, and they don't have room for all of them. Trying to fit Davis in in the outfield does not solve that.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-60058809349555656882017-03-16T15:44:16.209-04:002017-03-16T15:44:16.209-04:00I disagree. If a Davis OF/ Trumbo 1B provides a m...I disagree. If a Davis OF/ Trumbo 1B provides a measurably better defense even though Trumbo is not as good a 1B as Davis then it makes sense and really improves the value of Trumbo's signing and makes Mancini more valuable too. You should never look at the Davis contract isolated without context. Everyone is stuck on the idea that the Davis deal was bad and the Trumbo deal was worse. Make lemonade for chrissakes. The Trumbo deal had to be because of insufficient confidence in Mancini (or insufficient willingness to commit to him). Is Mancini faster than Trumbo or Davis? I don't know - no one has provided 40y dash times for any of them. Can Mancini play OF?Rogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-82830468336030006462017-03-16T13:17:27.058-04:002017-03-16T13:17:27.058-04:00Presumably, plays where the outfielder doesn't...Presumably, plays where the outfielder doesn't need to run at all would be in the 95-100% convert bucket. Those plays aren't in this dataset (and would be highly valuable if they were). <br /><br />I don't know what Dan and the other guys are thinking. More study may discover a motive.Matt Perezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16191574755038653061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-12375944227812248452017-03-16T11:58:21.686-04:002017-03-16T11:58:21.686-04:00Edit: "does this stat completely discount pla...Edit: "does this stat completely discount plays where the outfielder didn't have to run at all."<br /><br />Sorry about that. I wish there were an edit feature here.Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-2446119472326942832017-03-16T11:56:20.332-04:002017-03-16T11:56:20.332-04:00This is an extremely interesting article, I have t... This is an extremely interesting article, I have two questions. The first is does this debt completely discount place for the outfielder didn't have to run at all? He only had to move a few steps to make the catch of those left out of the sample size completely? I would think so, but I don't recall seeing that in the article. <br />Secondly, Dan and his crew are not stupid. They have access to all this information and much more. Can you discern their logic in deliberately using an outfielder who is so <br />bad that his defensive value almost canceled out his offensive contribution?Pipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-22643584081341727512017-03-16T11:56:11.183-04:002017-03-16T11:56:11.183-04:00This dataset probably has minimal data for Chris D...This dataset probably has minimal data for Chris Davis. Still, it does have some basic principles that a team can use to determine whether Davis might be acceptable.<br /><br />I don't see the Os using Davis in the outfield though, which probably means that signing Trumbo was a mistake. Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-49704741896522442982017-03-16T11:30:01.532-04:002017-03-16T11:30:01.532-04:00I am 56, and I could still outrun Davis. The only ...I am 56, and I could still outrun Davis. The only slower one was Weiters, who runs like he has a piano strapped to his back!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-86610867099774057492017-03-16T08:20:44.676-04:002017-03-16T08:20:44.676-04:00Why does Chris Davis being an improved and solid d...Why does Chris Davis being an improved and solid defensive first baseman not matter? Does it make any sense to move him to the outfield if he's slightly less bad than the other options if those same options are (even slightly) worse options defensively at first? At the very least, we're talking about a minimal gain, which is far from an elephant in the room.<br /><br />Also, none of those other players have contracts that are as lengthy and lucrative. It's in the team's best interest to not move him around and do what they can to keep him healthy.Matt Kremnitzerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15693430925266947705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-7337254722241826482017-03-16T08:11:53.214-04:002017-03-16T08:11:53.214-04:00This still doesn't answer the elephant in the ...This still doesn't answer the elephant in the room..... How is Chris Davis in the OF? I recall the discussion yesterday about him being a leadoff hitter that he is not as slow-footed as some others. Whether he is a GG 1B or not, it seems better for the team for 1B to be open for Trumbo/Mancini/Alvarez than to insist on keeping Chris Davis at 1B and a black hole in the OF.Rogernoreply@blogger.com