tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post5585328539862543165..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: More on Jim Johnson and Elite Closers StatusJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-86959718991674322922013-12-27T09:22:32.800-05:002013-12-27T09:22:32.800-05:00Actually, I don't have games and innings saved...Actually, I don't have games and innings saved. I do know that we're talking about roughly 2,300 total Saves, Holds and Blown Saves per year for all 57 closers(so about 40 per year) that fulfill all the conditions in the article. This nearly definitely means they all pitched full seasons. <br /><br />FIP and conversion rate were significant at the t=.02 level of significance for closers that close for two years. <br /><br />These are pretty large differences and I would be inclined to say that luck by itself isn't a good answer. But it could be that "proven closers" are given more chances than "unproven closers". <br />Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-65837911390464011442013-12-26T17:04:26.590-05:002013-12-26T17:04:26.590-05:00I don't worship at what I call "the cult ...I don't worship at what I call "the cult of the save." I don't believe that closing games, or more specifically preserving leads of three runs or fewer in the ninth inning, is a distinct skill from pitching effectively at other times.<br /><br />My question about the innings and games is an attempt to determine if the number of innings is so small that luck can overwhelm the pitcher's skill. My bias is toward that it does, but I don't know. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-51413812192717578462013-12-24T23:24:51.272-05:002013-12-24T23:24:51.272-05:00Thanks for the kind words.
A reliever can both ge...Thanks for the kind words.<br /><br />A reliever can both get a loss and a blown save in a single outing. If I counted both then it would probably be double counting.<br /><br />If closers do regress to the norm in year two then this indicates that having experience as a closer isn't a good thing. If proven closers were better than other closers we would expect them to get better as they gain experience. This isn't the case. <br /><br />If this is correct then it would make sense to use your hottest reliever as a closer instead of using one reliever. This isn't necessarily feasible. <br /><br />I don't know how many games and innings are involved off the top of my head. Are you interested in sums or numbers for each pitcher? Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-7140121348738953012013-12-24T11:30:31.157-05:002013-12-24T11:30:31.157-05:00This is very interesting research. Like all good r...This is very interesting research. Like all good research studies, this provokes many questions:<br />(1) How would save/hold/blown save-per-game change if you included wins and losses? Set-up men generally appear in tie games. Should relievers get a "hold" if they enter a tie game and keep it tied?<br />(2) Because closers become closers generally only if they're pitching well, how much of the decline in performance is regression to norm?<br />(3) How many games and innings are involved?<br /><br />I am not posing these questions as criticisms of this solid work. I hope that further research can shed more light on these questions.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18347209822215185644noreply@blogger.com