tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post4608141820155995650..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: Napkin Scratch: To Overslot or Spend on International Free AgentsJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-31402575681733939382011-08-20T22:31:58.801-04:002011-08-20T22:31:58.801-04:00Really...how many times can someone write about th...Really...how many times can someone write about that? It seems kind of pointless to me.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-50717494666637604682011-08-20T19:37:56.184-04:002011-08-20T19:37:56.184-04:00Shouldn't the only real question being asked a...Shouldn't the only real question being asked about the Orioles be why no one in the media is talking about how the only constant in their decade and a half of losing is Peter Angelos?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-40565722985148102642011-08-16T13:52:15.480-04:002011-08-16T13:52:15.480-04:00Agree with the concepts here. The one thing I woul...Agree with the concepts here. The one thing I would point out is that the whole third round $400k vs $600k later is partly a self-selection bias. The reason those guys go later is because they've made it known that they will play hardball and require more to sign than other guys who are of similar talent. <br /><br />I don't really know why so many players simply settle for slot deals when playing hardball clearly gets you paid. Trevor Bauer's decision to sign early cost him about $3 million. That sucks. That's not worth an extra month of player development. When I see Josh Bell gets $5 million, the question is not, "What are the Pirates thinking?" As you mentioned, he'd get that amount in the free market. They overpaid by draft standards, but they paid a reasonable price for the talent they got. The real question is, "What are the other guys considered top 15-20 prospects thinking?" Obviously high school guys have more leverage than college guys, but still. The amount of money that these kids are giving up simply because they decide to play nice and settle for less is kind of amazing.<br /><br />But the biggest concept is that you're right of course: it comes down to scouting. The O's supposed analysis of IFA value vs draft value is so asinine and useless because it totally discounts scouting. It's looking big picture at averages. In order to credit that approach, you'd have to assume that there is no advantage to be gained by having better scouts than the other guys, which seems dubious. Invest the money in talent evaluators, and you'll be gaining an edge on your competition. You won't be getting the average return on player X, you'll be getting more. If you trust your personnel so little as to assume that they will return only average results, then the solution is not to abandon pursuit; it's to change personnel.<br /><br />Sigh. Yesterday was a good day at least.Go To War Miss Agneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06149430492591259655noreply@blogger.com