tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post447129331642017425..comments2024-01-06T02:22:33.000-05:00Comments on Camden Depot: More McLouth: a Simple Post on Future PerformanceJon Shepherdhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-21243122627983516592012-10-31T10:22:12.813-04:002012-10-31T10:22:12.813-04:00I think you got caught up in the simplicity of the...I think you got caught up in the simplicity of the example. I do not think managers can magically know who has there stuff together, so yes there will be some drift. That is included in the thought process.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-6682354922329157592012-10-31T09:53:14.681-04:002012-10-31T09:53:14.681-04:00"Using dummy numbers...let's assume that ..."Using dummy numbers...let's assume that McLouth has a 30% chance of providing average value. It would be my perspective that there is a 20% chance that Reimold alone is worth that, a 7% chance Hoes alone is worth that, and a 3% chance that Avery alone is worth that. I have not run anything to tell me what those numbers specifically are, but I think those three match up very well to McLouth."<br /><br />If you try Avery and Hoes in LF and they fail, then you've a) wasted time in which McLouth could actually produce and b) caused this team to have negative production at the position. By doing this, it means that in order for an Avery/Hoes platoon to be better than McLouth, either the first one you try would have to succeed or the other would have to be better than McLouth + the negative performance from the other in order to equal McLouth's production.<br /><br />Reimold does have a chance of reproducing McLouth's production (a high one if he remains healthy) but I would think he's likely the starting DH at the moment. If you move him from DH then we'd need to see who takes over that position. Playing Davis every day at 1B and Betemit every day at DH is obviously not ideal but what would be expected if we didn't resign Reynolds or McLouth and had a bench of Teagarden(second catcher), Andino (presuming Roberts is at second), Avery(fourth outfielder) and FA (no idea who this would be).<br /><br />But it's early... maybe we really will sign Hamilton plus trade for Butler and Rizzo making all of our questions moot. Matt Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-89329859497264525872012-10-31T06:27:34.979-04:002012-10-31T06:27:34.979-04:00Looking back at my answer...I don't know if so...Looking back at my answer...I don't know if something is clear in all of my writing on McLouth. I think the probability of him providing average performance in left field is the same as the collection of Reimold, Avery, and Hoes. What this means is that McLouth on his own profiles better, but you have just as much of a chance for one of those three stepping forward.<br /><br />Using dummy numbers...let's assume that McLouth has a 30% chance of providing average value. It would be my perspective that there is a 20% chance that Reimold alone is worth that, a 7% chance Hoes alone is worth that, and a 3% chance that Avery alone is worth that. I have not run anything to tell me what those numbers specifically are, but I think those three match up very well to McLouth.<br /><br />The point is not a vacuum of McLouth or those three because those three will still be there whether or not McLouth is. The point is whether it is worth 5MM or whatever to improve the odds of getting average performance out of left field as well as whether or not McLouth's history will enable him to sign with someone who promises him a full time role.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-78865896651694558252012-10-30T21:46:32.895-04:002012-10-30T21:46:32.895-04:00Oh, I don't think I am high on Avery/Hoes or d...Oh, I don't think I am high on Avery/Hoes or down on McLouth. I think they all would provide marginal value. Hoes has a higher ceiling to produce this year, but I think it takes him a bit longer.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-84816488597429696872012-10-30T21:35:53.049-04:002012-10-30T21:35:53.049-04:00Is it a case of you being that high on Avery and H...Is it a case of you being that high on Avery and Hoes or just that down on Nate?<br /><br />Genuinely curious, I'm not a huge believer in Avery/Hoes at the ML level, although Avery surprised me in his limited stint. Jeremy Strainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15328957000625143010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-29992997339110482512012-10-30T17:48:55.857-04:002012-10-30T17:48:55.857-04:00Also, thanks for the kind words. I hope I am not ...Also, thanks for the kind words. I hope I am not coming off too frank. I very much appreciate your thoughts on the site. I think discussion helps us all challenge our thoughts and makes us worker harder to try to figure out what the reality of the situation is.<br /><br />Thanks again.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-61056404001002232712012-10-30T17:47:37.119-04:002012-10-30T17:47:37.119-04:00My contention is that the players the Orioles alre...My contention is that the players the Orioles already have under contract are just as likely to perform as well as Nate McLouth is likely to perform. Therefore, it makes little sense to me to put more money into the pot to secure him for the Orioles.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-61703006995460125392012-10-30T17:36:44.265-04:002012-10-30T17:36:44.265-04:00Here's a supplemental question:
If Nate is wor...Here's a supplemental question:<br />If Nate is worth X, but you don't want to pay him X, because you don't think he would produce as much as X should supply,<br />Who CAN you get for X?<br />All the guys you mentioned in your podcast would be incredibly expensive, and Mr. Angelos is not known for generosityPhilipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-47352657782883321072012-10-30T17:31:42.246-04:002012-10-30T17:31:42.246-04:00I cannot comment on current salaries because actua...I cannot comment on current salaries because actually I think they are all obscene.<br />But I hope Nate is wise enough to know his own value, and he seems sincere when he says he wants to stay in Baltimore.<br />Hopefully, desire and wisdom will combine to convince him to take a small amount of money, instead of insisting on the moon.<br />If you think 3-5 million for two years is the max then that's fine, and I doubt you'll better for the same amount of money, so it's financially wise to keep him if he will take that.<br />We'll find out in what, two weeks?<br />Really enjoy the site<br /><br />Philipnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-32360114739427554102012-10-30T16:54:35.269-04:002012-10-30T16:54:35.269-04:00So...McLouth made 1.75MM last year after having tw...So...McLouth made 1.75MM last year after having two injury plagued seasons. Now, he is coming off of a decent 55 game stretch. How do you think that affects his market value?<br /><br />At the very least, he looks like someone who can get a 3MM deal. I think more likely he could see something in the 4-5MM range with incentives.<br /><br />With what the team already has available, I think that money is best served going to shore up second base (another black hole of value) or going gonzo on left field.Jon Shepherdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03521809778977098687noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2893512317902577458.post-37006425135389004292012-10-30T14:18:49.741-04:002012-10-30T14:18:49.741-04:00For some reason, my IPhone periodically freezes wh...For some reason, my IPhone periodically freezes when I post here, am I can't edit my wnt, which makes long comments awkward.<br />I agree with your post, with one caveat:<br />You cant find anyone who can produce what Mclouth did as inexpensively as he will. He's not the Risen Messiah in LF, but he is better than anyone on the horizon. Unless Mgmt I prepared to spend way too much.<br />Ergo, offer him a short contract for reasonable money, or a longer one with incentives, and tell him he's not guaranteed a startig spot.<br />David Murphy is a perfect 4th OF, but he isn't going anywhere, and he'd cost 20 times what Mclouth will.<br />Mclouth as a sometime starter is a valuable part of any team.Philipnoreply@blogger.com